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You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

Tuesday, Oct 13, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From John Gregory at the Illinois Radio Network

U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) will have a primary challenger.

Oswego businessman James Marter is entering the race, claiming Kirk’s stances against defunding Planned Parenthood and for gun control have made him little different than Democrats in the Senate.

Marter has heard it said that Kirk’s moderate positions are what gives him a chance to win a statewide election, but he’d like to see firsthand if voters will back a more conservative candidate like himself.

“That’s kind of the mantra out there, that you have to be a moderate to win in Illinois, but I think we need to run a conservative in Illinois to test that model and see if it’s really true,” Marter said.

In the history of Illinois, has a moderate Republican incumbent ever lost a statewide GOP primary to a completely unknown ultra-conservative challenger?

Indeed, Marter might actually turn out to be a good thing for Kirk if the incumbent tees off on Marter to reestablish his moderate bonafides for the fall campaign.

       

28 Comments
  1. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:46 pm:

    In other news, Oswego Willy has moved and will now be known as Yorkville Willy.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:53 pm:

    I’m not saying Oswego IS the center of Illinois Politics, I’m not saying that. I’m not saying Oswego could very well help Sen. Kirk and his re-election prospects…

    I’ll leave that for others.

    - Team Sleep -,

    I’m saving that for the “Friday News Dump”, so just keep it between us…


  3. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:54 pm:

    Sounds like Kirk won’t be the only Marter in this race!


  4. - HaroldJones - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:54 pm:

    Rich, primaries are never a good thing. They leave incumbents weakened and the primary field divided at a time all hands are needed on deck to defeat Zopp.


  5. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:56 pm:

    HaroldJones, you may be getting a bit ahead of yourself. Not saying you’re wrong, just sayin…


  6. - Caitlin - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:58 pm:

    “Marter has heard it said that Kirk’s moderate positions are what gives him a chance to win a statewide election, but he’d like to see firsthand if voters will back a more conservative candidate like himself.”

    Nah B. Nah


  7. - Cannon649 - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:58 pm:

    Kirk has failed to my expectations. I believe that is the issue.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 12:59 pm:

    Kevin Artl is going to owe me big for this, and not just Cannoli, hot dogs and golf at Fox Bend… for starters.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:01 pm:

    ===failed to my expectations. I believe that is the issue.===

    Well, then, obviously he’s gonna lose now.

    Who knew you were so all-important in Illinois?

    lol


  10. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:04 pm:

    Kirk is doing something right when he makes both the left and the right angry at the same time.

    I remember when I met Pat Hughes, who was Kirk’s primary opponent. All that I could get out of him as to why he was even running was some combo of “liberal” and “establishment”.


  11. - Cubs in '15 - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:05 pm:

    Rim shot for VanillaMan.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:10 pm:

    To the Post, no snark, to the actual Post,

    This is good for the Kirk Crew to be able to reintroduce Sen. Kirk, and frame Sen. Kirk with a primary opponent Kirk and try to show where Kirk they as a Crew want him.

    Parlay this with the poll today, it’s a good thing, this primary.


  13. - Guzzlepot - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:15 pm:

    He is going to have to get out and campaign now. That is physically strenuous when you are young and healthy, unfortunately Kirk is not young and healthy. Kirk will also have to get at and get in front of a microphone regularly, which means he will have more opportunities to misspeak.


  14. - bc - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:20 pm:

    == In the history of Illinois, has a moderate Republican incumbent ever lost a statewide GOP primary to a completely unknown ultra-conservative challenger? ==

    I generally agree with this sentiment, but this is not the Illinois GOP of Dirksen, Percy, Thompson and Edgar. I would bet that Kirk survives the primary, but I think it will have more to do with Rauner’s muscle than the party’s moderate tradition.


  15. - The Captain - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:21 pm:

    == In the history of Illinois, has a moderate Republican incumbent ever lost a statewide GOP primary to a completely unknown ultra-conservative challenger? ==

    The ‘96 Republican primary for US Senate doesn’t meet this definition but it was still the example my mind immediately went to.


  16. - ILPundit - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:25 pm:

    Al Salvi?


  17. - Wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:31 pm:

    Best thing that could happen to Kirk, unless it was Joe Walsh.


  18. - The Captain - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:31 pm:

    Yeah, it’s been a long time but my recollection was that Kustra was the favored establishment candidate and Salvi was the conservative challenger. My memory could be wrong though, it often is. Obviously neither was the incumbent and neither was a complete unknown.


  19. - NIU Grad - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 1:45 pm:

    “…but I think we need to run a conservative in Illinois to test that model and see if it’s really true,” Marter said.”

    How did that work out with Oberweis, Schimpf, Brady, etc…


  20. - Gooner - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 3:06 pm:

    People are assuming two things. First, that this guy will not be able to mount a serious threat; and 2) That Kirk will not move to the right to head off the perceived threat.

    There is a lot of far right money in IL, despite the fact that the far right never wins statewide (Rauner is the clear exception but he sure didn’t run as far right as he’s governed). Proft et al. may generate some cash, and tea partiers from outside IL may dump some too.

    If the Presidential race is still alive (and I expect it to be) the far right may well be out in force on election day.

    Further, the Kirk of today is not the same person who ran and won in a northshore district. He hasn’t shown the same judgment or the same instincts. I would not be remotely surprised to see him move right preemptively.

    Cash, or fear of right wing cash, makes good politicians do stupid stuff. We need look no further than Ron Sandack for an example of how the fear of the right motivate a candidate to take some strange positions.

    This is going to be interesting.


  21. - Anon - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 4:10 pm:

    Man — I’d hate to be planning a primary campaign that depends so heavily as to whether or not a moderate voter chooses a Republican or a Democratic ballot based off of the presidential primaries.

    If the nomination isn’t clenched up by the time it gets to Illinois, Kirk might see a lot of his potential moderate voters choosing a Democratic ballot to support a more moderate Democrat to face off against which ever one of those Republicans wins the most votes.


  22. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 4:44 pm:

    Not ultra conservative

    Just conservative


  23. - Hedley Lamarr - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 5:21 pm:

    I’ve said it before, Kirk will get the Percy treatment.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 5:47 pm:

    - Gooner -,

    Once Rauner and Griffin teamed up, Kirk’s “Right” flank and money problems went away.

    ===We need look no further than Ron Sandack for an example of how the fear of the right motivate a candidate to take some strange positions.===

    So true. But, The Owl is owned, Kirk’s old Crew runs Rauner’s Shop. Kirk has a chit, The Owl IS a chit.

    I will say, once The Owl Sandack sold out, he slurped that Rauner Kool-Aide even when they don’t ask him too. Embarrassingly so.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 5:52 pm:

    - Gooner -,

    … which is also why I can easily back Kirk.

    Kirk holds the chits on Rauner, Rauner is paying back Kirk.

    I’m with Kirk and Artl.


  26. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 7:38 pm:

    Where is Allen Keyes when we need him?


  27. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Oct 13, 15 @ 7:39 pm:

    Or perhaps Joe Walsh? Probably taking care of his kids so cannot give us his public service


  28. - Jack Stephens - Wednesday, Oct 14, 15 @ 7:53 am:

    As long as the Conservative understands that if you are a gun owner you’re a ember of the Well Regulated Militia. And that your use of guns IS regulated by the Government.

    Is this another Freedom and Liberty “T” person who also supports Government Regulation of your personal life?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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