* Press release…

Today, Raja Krishnamoorthi filed over 400% of the required petitions to qualify for Illinois’ 8th District Democratic primary ballot in March and released an inside look at his grassroots campaign by the numbers.

In addition to establishing what observers have called a “huge head start” and “commanding financial lead,” Raja’s campaign already mobilized over 100 volunteers and contacted thousands of primary voters throughout the 8th District. In addition, Raja personally knocked on 1,126 doors.

Responding to the news, Raja said, “I am flattered by the outpouring of support and activity throughout the 8th District. It is clear that our message of helping working families reach and hold on to economic security is resonating with voters, and puts our campaign in a position to win. I’m happy to say that we’re just getting started.”

So far, Raja’s campaign has:

Called 11,897 voters
Knocked 10,116 doors
Activated 110 volunteers
Earned 106 grassroots endorsements
Held 13 coffees and open houses
Opened 1 office and 2 staging locations
Canvassed for 2,775 petition signatures

* From state Sen. Mike Noland…

Today the Noland for Congress campaign officially submitted 2,117 signatures to the Illinois State Board of Elections. By submitting these petitions and a statement of candidacy, Noland officially becomes a candidate in the Democratic Primary for Illinois’ 8th Congressional district.

“I am so humbled by the outpouring of support from voters across the northwest suburbs. Throughout this process I have had the opportunity to meet voters at their homes, at train stations, and at community events.” said Noland, who personally collected over 679 signatures from voters. “Voters are ready for change; they are tired of the same old Washington politics. Voters are yearning for effective goverment and I am the only the candidate in this race who has a record of creating change through the legislative process.”

Noland is currently the front-runner to replace Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, who is vacating her seat to run for the United States Senate. A recent poll conducted by one of Noland’s opponents showed him with a seven-point lead over his two challengers, and after voters are provided more information about the candidates, Noland’s lead expands. His campaign has earned the support of over a dozen labor organizations, Kane County Democrats, Northside Democracy for America, and over 75 elected officials including Senate President John J. Cullerton and former Senate President Emil Jones Jr.

* That poll was indeed interesting and I never got around to posting it, so here it is…

October 13, 2015

To: Interested Parties
Fr: Brian Stryker / Kevin Akins
Re: Summary of Democratic Primary Voters in Illinois CD-08

With less than six months until the primary, the race to become the Democratic nominee in IL-CD-08 is up for grabs. None of the three announced candidates has a defined brand throughout the district, and 41% of voters are undecided. Deb Bullwinkel trails initially, but voters quickly warm to her in the poll. If we have the financial resources to tell our story,Bullwinkel can win.

The Democratic primary to replace Tammy Duckworth is wide open.

• No candidate is known to move voters (Noland 36% name ID / Krishnamoorthi 34% name ID / Bullwinkel 17% name ID).

• As a result, the race for Congress is yet to be determined. The largest share of voters is undecided (41%); Mike Noland holds a small lead in the race (Noland 29% / Krishnamoorthi 22% / Bullwinkel 8%).

In an “informed vote” where voters hear more information about all three candidates, Bullwinkel gains the most vote share and tightens the race.

Information given to voters:

Deb Bullwinkel is the Mayor of Villa Park. Bullwinkel worked as a journalist out of college, covering our communities. She’s a small business owner who will fight for fair wages, she mentors students in Villa Park, and she worked at mental health nonprofits to help families get the health care they need. As Mayor she invested in infrastructure, creating hundreds of good paying middle-class jobs. Bullwinkel will go to Congress to fight for the middle class,working to bring good jobs here and make it easier to afford to raise a family.

Mike Noland is a Navy Veteran and State Senator from Elgin who says he’s the only proven progressive running and that he’s stood up against Republicans in Springfield. Noland will fight for universal health care and tax reform to help the middle class.

Raja Krishnamoorthi runs a small business in Schaumburg that creates renewable energy products. He also served as Deputy Treasurer for Illinois where he helped revamp the state’s unclaimed property system and ran a technology fund that created hundreds of good-paying jobs. Raja served as issues director for Barack Obama’s U.S. Senate campaign and was an advisor to his Presidential campaign. Raja wants to bring common sense problem solving to Washington, not partisan politics based on ideologies.

• After voters hear positive information about each candidate, Bullwinkel gains +16 points (twice what Noland gains and four times what Krishnamoorthi gains). She moves within the margin of error of Raja (37% Noland / 26% Krishnamoorthi / 24% Bullwinkel).

o Krishnamoorthi’s lack of vote growth in this exercise suggests that his fundraising advantage will be muted by his less-compelling narrative.

• More people pick Bullwinkel as their second choice than the other two candidates (32% Bullwinkel / 29% Noland / 27% Krishnamoorthi), suggesting more expansion potential for Bullwinkel as voters get to know her better.

• The largest share of voters (41%) is currently undecided, and Bullwinkel wins them in the informed vote (32% Bullwinkel /28% Noland / 13% Krishnamoorthi).

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely March 2016 Democratic Primary voters in Illinois’ Eighth Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between October 8-11, 2015. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence level.

I don’t know much about Bullwinkel’s campaign yet, but those ain’t bad numbers if she can raise some cash. The takeaway on Noland is that if he raises enough money to get his message out he might be more competitive than some folks think.