Time for an intervention
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Rauner was reminded today of comments he made almost exactly one year ago to the Chicago Tribune…
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner kicked off a campaign-style statewide tour Monday by indicating he’ll try to “leverage” the state’s money woes into securing a series of pro-business changes from a General Assembly controlled by Democrats likely to fiercely oppose them. […]
“Crisis creates opportunity. Crisis creates leverage to change … and we’ve got to use that leverage of the crisis to force structural change,” said Rauner, borrowing from a political philosophy famously coined by his friend Rahm Emanuel that “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste.”
* The governor was then asked if he was using the current crisis to leverage results. His response…
“This crisis is horrible. I didn’t create it. I don’t want it. And I am furious that this is occurring. There is no reason that we should go this long without a state budget.”
Um, OK. I think it’s time to address the governor as one human being to another.
* Dearest Bruce,
I know - heck, we all know - that you cannot possibly be blamed for Illinois’ many years of unbalanced budgets. You cannot be blamed for grossly underfunding the pension systems for decades. You cannot be blamed for eons of neglect of a host of other issues.
And everybody knows that you, alone, are not fully to blame here. Actually, I’d be willing to bet that more people side with you than with the other actors on the Illinois stage.
But, dude. Seriously, man. You vetoed all but one appropriations bill last year. That means, at the very least, you had a hand in creating the current crisis.
And framing this battle a year ago by saying you’d “leverage” a “crisis” to “force” change certainly shows intent. This was no one-off remark, either. Remember this from September 18, 2012?…
“In Illinois there’s been a long-time history of what I would call social service, social justice, a bigger role for government in the safety net than in many other states,” Rauner said at a tax policy conference sponsored by the George W. Bush Institute. “I think we can drive a wedge issue in the Democratic Party on that topic and bring the folks who say, ‘You know what? For our tax dollars, I’d rather help the disadvantaged, the handicapped, the elderly, the children in poverty. I’d rather have my tax dollars going to that than the SEIU or Af-scammy, who are out there for their own interests.’”
I gotta say man that it looks to quite a few people that this crisis you say you don’t want and are angry about has been your real plan all along.
But, hey, I’m willing to give you the benefit of the doubt as long as you please, pretty please, stop denying the obvious. It’s truly weirding me out.
Love,
RM
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Unclear on the concept
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From David E. Smith, executive director of the Illinois Family Institute…
Dear Editor:
Outrageous! The Illinois Human Rights Commission has fined a Christian business owner $80K for refusing to violate his conscience regarding hosting an event for a same-sex ceremony. And to make matters worse, they are mandating that he do the very thing that violates his religious beliefs.
This is the epitome of tyranny!
The business owner in question runs a bed and breakfast.
* When my dad was a teenager, he worked at a hotel in Kankakee near the railroad station. Black travelers would occasionally attempt to rent a room, but they’d be told there were no vacancies and given the address of another hotel - a serious dump which rented to African-Americans for a dollar a night.
Those days are long over. If your business is considered a public accommodation, you have to abide by a state’s public accommodation laws, which are approved by a majority of duly elected legislators, signed into law by duly elected governors and overseen by duly elected judges. If you think a constitutional republic is tyranny, you’re most definitely unclear on the concept.
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Manar unveils new school funding plan
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Andy Manar had a press conference this afternoon to discuss his new legislation…
A new school funding formula could land in the Illinois Senate as soon as Tuesday, and while it would shift money from the wealthier districts to the poorer ones, unlike in several ill-fated earlier proposals, the cuts would be phased in over four years, Senate President John Cullerton said Monday. […]
The cash-strapped Chicago schools could come out with an additional $300 million — about $200 million for pension costs plus an additional $100 million in state aid, Cullerton said. That’s even if special block grants to Chicago Public Schools go away, he said. Right now, CPS is projected to lose about $78 million next year.
Cullerton had few details about the actual formula. He said the Illinois State Board of Education would have to run numbers for each school district to see whether they would gain or lose state money allocated for poor children. None would lose money the first year, but that would cost the state an extra $400 million, Cullerton said. Further losses would phase out over three more years.
So, essentially, CPS would get $100 million of that $400 million, then an additional $200 million for pension costs, bringing it more in line with other school districts in the state. Total first year cost: $600 million. Pretty steep pricetag without any new revenues.
That $400 million number could actually be less, or even more. We don’t know because the Senate Dems are complaining that the State Board of Education isn’t running any numbers (the governor’s included) by school district.
* And the Senate Republicans continue to refer to this idea as a city bailout…
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Midwife legalization bill stalls… again
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* WUIS…
Trish Sherman Pfeiffer of Carbondale gave birth to her oldest son in the hospital, where he ended up with an infection.
“So he actually became sick because of the hospital care,” she said.
She decided to have her next child at home, with the assistance of a Certified Professional Midwife — someone with training, but who isn’t a nurse.
“We had a great experience. My second son was born at home, with no complication,” she said. “He’s a happy, thriving four-year-old today.”
In Illinois, that is — and was — illegal. And, says Sherman Pfeiffer, potentially dangerous. She backs legislation to legalize, and regulate the profession.
* About 30 states allow midwives, but a House committee refused to take a vote on the legislation today…
A leader from the Illinois Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics says Gabel’s bill needs to include provisions that would allow midwives and physicians to collaborate. Midwives say homebirths are a safe option for mothers and babies.
[Rep. Robyn Gabel] says The American College of Obstetrics and Gynecologists now has a neutral stance on the plan after years of opposition. The state has not issued licenses to midwives since 1963.
* Meanwhile, some bills did advance yesterday…
• Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart Dart spoke in support of a bill sponsored by Rep. Mike Zalewski, D-Riverside, that would accelerate the judicial process for low-level offenders. If a criminal case isn’t resolved in 30 days, the person charged with the crime would be released on his own recognizance. It’s an effort to keep nonviolent offenders out of prison as they await trial and passed without opposition. […]
• Skokie Democrat Lou Lang won early approval for a measure that would allow physicians to prescribe medication to treat heroin addicts without restriction from drug court judges. The bill is a follow-up to a wide-ranging law passed last year intended to curb heroin abuse in the state. The same panel rejected a separate proposal that would have required medical marijuana products to have warning labels about possible side effects.
Dart’s bill is a good idea. People are rotting in county jails for petty offenses because they can’t make bail.
* Other stuff…
* Transgender birth certificate bill advances
* Lawmakers gave initial approval to a bill that would create a new felony offense for buying guns in other states to transport them for sale in Illinois: Republican Rep. Jim Durkin, the GOP’s House leader and sponsor of the bill, says criminals are skirting Illinois’ background check requirements and mandate to have a license to purchase firearms by going to other states. He says his goal is to address rising gang violence in Chicago.
* A proposal to speed up a juvenile suspect’s hearing before a judge is headed to the Illinois House floor: The Juvenile Justice Committee overwhelmingly approved the plan by Evanston Democratic Rep. Robyn Gabel to require a hearing within 24 hours of a juvenile’s arrest — including on weekends and holidays.
* Morrison’s gender bathroom bill sunk to sub-committee: Despite lining up 29 co-sponsors from both Republican and Democrat aisle sides, State Rep. Tom Morrison’s (R-Palatine) proposal to designate bathrooms in public schools to be occupied exclusively by one sex was sent down to subcommittee Tuesday. With committee deadlines looming at the end of this week, that move - without a hearing or considering any testimony - is likely to squelch any legislative effort to deal with an ongoing controversy statewide.
* World Shooting and Recreational Complex reopens to shooters, with limits
* Q-C religious leaders urge end to Illinois budget impasse
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Oh, for crying out loud
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* How is holding up this money helping the economy?…
The state has completed a plan to jump-start the solar-panel industry in Illinois with approval of $30 million worth of energy purchases from new such projects.
The Illinois Commerce Commission today approved the third of three competitive procurements conducted by the Illinois Power Agency. All told, the five-year contracts will allow for the construction of roughly 1,000 small-scale solar projects throughout the state, totaling about 30 megawatts of capacity.
The money comes from a state clean energy fund. Under state law, retail electricity suppliers must pay into the fund annually based on how much business they’re doing in the state.
Even though the source of the cash is residential and commercial customers of retail electricity suppliers, the funds are subject to state appropriations. With the state still operating without a budget thanks to the impasse between Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democrats in the Legislature, the IPA can’t spend the money. […]
At 30 megawatts, the procurements are a small first step for Illinois. Other states have been more aggressive in incentivizing small-scale solar projects. New Jersey, for example, has installed more than 1,000 megawatts—about the capacity of a nuclear reactor.
Ugh. On so many levels.
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* “We were trying to build a ship as we were sailing it.”
That quote pretty much sums up the entire Pat Quinn administration. There’s just too much to excerpt, so click here for the full story. Sheesh.
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* Press release…
Governor Bruce Rauner announced today he signed Executive Order 16-05 creating the Health Care Fraud Elimination Task Force. The Task Force will take a holistic and comprehensive approach in the prevention and elimination of health care fraud, waste and abuse in taxpayer-funded programs. Governor Rauner made today’s announcement at the Annual Ethics Officer Conference, hosted by the Executive Ethics Commission.
“Reducing fraud and waste is critical in state government to ensure we are delivering the best value to consumers and taxpayers,” Governor Rauner said. “For the first time, we are bringing program-specific and agency efforts together to collaborate and take a multi-pronged approach to preventing and eliminating fraud, waste, and abuse.”
The Task Force will study and utilize the best practices of these agency fraud prevention units, the efforts of the federal government and other state governments, and those in the private sector to root out fraud, waste, and abuse.
The costs of state-administered health care programs are driven up when abuse of the system goes unchecked. Annually, Illinois spends more than $19 billion on state-administered Medicaid programs and the State Employee Group Health Insurance Programs.
The Executive Inspector General Maggie Hickey will serve as Chairman of the Task Force, which will be made up of the following representatives:
· Deputy Governor
· Chief Compliance Officer
· Special Counsel and Policy Advisor to the Governor for Healthcare and Human Services
· Inspector General for the Department of Healthcare and Family Services
· Director of the State Police Medicaid Fraud Control Unit
· Director of the Department on Aging
· Director of the Department of Central Management Services
· Director of the Department of Healthcare and Family Services
· Secretary of the Department of the Human Services
· Secretary of the Department of Information Technology
· Director of the Department of Insurance
Today’s action is another step Governor Rauner has taken to ensure the most ethical and transparent Administration in state history. During the Governor’s first week in office, he signed Executive Order 15-09 to strengthen ethical standards for the Executive Branch. He also signed Executive Order 16-04 to update and strengthen the Executive Branch’s internal investigation system.
* After unveiling his plan, the governor took questions from reporters and actually avoided some invitations to whack the General Assembly. Have a listen…
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Today’s number: $125.3 billion
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Illinois Auditor General…
The net position of governmental activities continued to deteriorate and the deficit increased by $4.1 billion from FY14 to FY15. Overall, the net position of governmental activities is reported as a deficit of $125.3 billion.
That’s mostly for unfunded pension liabilities.
* We’re Number One!…
Oy.
…Adding… From WSIL TV…
5 solutions to state’s pension crisis offered by Illinois Policy Institute
As House lawmakers headed back into session Monday following a four week break, a major stumbling block toward solving this and future budget crises remains. What should they do about Illinois’ pension debt?
It’s now at a record $111 billion, according to the Illinois Policy Institute, which on Monday offered five solutions to fix the problem.
The words “solutions” and “fix” should’ve had scare quotes around them. If you click through, you’ll see that none of the “solutions” actually “fix” the current unfunded liability. The only way to do that is to pay it off, although I suppose handing over responsibility for teachers’ pension payments to local school districts and allowing those districts to declare bankruptcy could qualify.
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Our sorry state
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Millionaires are leaving Chicago more than any other city in the United States on a net basis, according to a new report.
About 3,000 individuals with net assets of $1 million or more, not including their primary residence, moved from the city last year, with many citing rising racial tensions and worries about crime as factors in the decision, according to research firm New World Wealth. That represented about 2 percent of the city’s high net worth individuals.
Cities in the United States that saw a net inflow of millionaires included Seattle and San Francisco.
* From the study…
We interviewed migration experts and [high net worth individuals] to find out on their reasons for leaving. Notable reasons that they mentioned included:
* Paris: Rising religious tensions, lack of opportunities.
* Rome: Economic slump, lack of opportunities.
* Chicago: Rising racial tensions, rising crime levels.
* Athens: Economic slump, migration crisis with Syria/Turkey.
Interestingly enough, economic factors were listed for everywhere that saw the largest exoduses except Chicago.
* I asked Andrew Amoils, the firm’s head of research, if anyone mentioned taxes and the business climate as reasons for leaving…
Hi Rich,
I do not remember anyone mentioning that. I think crime was the main reason people left.
Note: our figures refer to the city itself, not the metropol.
A
The governor might want to take note of that.
Even so, does anyone really doubt that more jobs and a better economy would alleviate those tensions and reduce the crime levels?
* Meanwhile, “Chicago Tonight” interviewed Tribune reporter William Lee, who, you may recall, wrote a recent story about how black people were fleeing Chicago…
WTTW: In your article, you talk about crime and violence being a big part of why African-Americans are leaving Chicago. What are people telling you?
William Lee: It’s a complex thing. Crime is definitely one of the key pieces where it’s used for people trying to make that final decision – folks who are lifelong residents, who grew up here, maybe they’re getting to a certain age, a certain point in their careers, their children are getting older and – every crime that gets close to them forces them to make that decision to stay or go. It’s people all across the board – from college students to the late baby boomers, retirement age, those who have left their careers after a long time saying OK, I’ll move to Atlanta, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia. It’s a huge cross-section of people. […]
WTTW: What could the city do to make people stay, or return?
Lee: That’s the million-dollar question, right? You see a lot of things being said about it but they’re talking about the problem in pieces and no one ever puts it together. Holding it together, especially during this tough economic time, is the trick. How can we invest money – how can you create jobs that will train this huge population of young men and teenage boys who aren’t working, who want to be working, but can’t? A lot of the investment on the South Side of late has been police overtime and not job programs – it’s one of those things that has to be ironed out.
And it kind of goes without saying, but if you live in these neighborhoods, you don‘t have a lot of the simple amenities. There have been quite a few stories about how a lot of the money in these communities is being spent outwardly, but they have to spend outside because they don’t have the businesses they need inside. I try to do my part but most of the time our communities don’t have all the things we want.
* More from WTTW on this topic…
“The city has been losing population – but that’s not a new story, that’s been happening since the ‘50s. What is the new story is that the state is declining in population. The declines are very small – so it’s not an Armageddon situation – but it does speak to the region being in a slow growth phase, and it’s because it’s losing people to other parts of the country for a lot of different reasons,” said Rob Paral of Rob Paral Associates, a demographics and public policy consulting firm.
“They leave to retire, for jobs. And two other things: one is that the whole region is aging so the number of births isn’t as high here. And we used to get bailed out of population declines by immigrants but their numbers are down so we don’t have immigration to save us this time,” he added.
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* A group of high school students joined homeless activists and somehow got inside the executive mansion today…
…Adding… Related…
* Students Protest Higher Education Cuts at Chicago Symphony Orchestra: Five protesters who had purchased tickets to the CSO show entered the performance hall and dropped a banner from the second-floor balcony. The banner read “Sam Zell, Ken Griffin, Tell Rauner: Don’t Cut Colleges.” Security and audience members quickly moved to take the banner down, according to Wood. After about 15 minutes inside, security threatened the protesters with arrest, and the protesters left the building.
*** UPDATE *** The explanation for today’s action…
100 homeless youth, providers, and allies took to the Governor’s Mansion this morning to protest the Governor’s refusal to release funding for housing services. They pushed for Governor Rauner to support HB 4955/SB 2603, legislation that releases millions from state funds earmarked for services that provide affordable housing and end homelessness.
“I traveled hundreds of miles to ask the Governor why he thinks my future’s not worth investing in,” said Kevin Flint, age 23, who rode on a bus this morning from Chicago to get a hearing with the Governor. “I want to move out on my own and become independent, but the Governor is harming the program that can help me do that.”
Kevin ended up spending 18 months in adult prison for failing to register as an address with parole for crimes he had committed ten years before as a juvenile. When he got out, he was homeless, but ready to change his life. He found Neon Street Dorms, a state-funded homeless youth program which helped him get on his feet. During the last six months, Kevin’s mother died and he was diagnosed with a serious heart condition which required surgery. Despite these difficulties, Neon Street has been able to support him in finding full time employment, getting back into school and saving money for an apartment.
“Our youth are doing their best to better their circumstances but because of the budget crisis their futures and the futures of the programs that assist them are in jeopardy. It is horrifying that the person elected to lead our state continues to stand by and allow this happen,” said Jeri Linas, Executive Director of Teen Living Programs.
Due to the continued budget crisis Teen Living Program has had to make $300,000 in cuts to vital programming. The organization has also had to layoff staff. These cuts can change the circumstances of a youth’s life trajectory; it can mean the difference between becoming successfully independent or their ultimate failure and lifelong dependency in and on the system.
In February, twenty homeless youth and service providers met with the Governor to discuss HB 4955/SB 2603. Days later, Gov. Rauner, through his policy director, told the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless he would not support the funding measure for housing services.
“Governor Rauner refuses to explain why he, an individual with nine homes, will not support the release of funding for homeless services across the state, including funding for homeless youth,” said Doug Schenkelberg, Executive Director of the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless. “We implore the governor to show leadership by reconsidering and supporting legislation that would immediately release funding to ensure these youth have a place to lay their heads at night.”
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Madigan’s Quinn and Dunkin’s caps
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Ben Joravsky has a profile of Speaker Madigan’s alderman and trusted lieutenant Marty Quinn…
When I reached him, he was modest, and said I was “overstating” his role in Madigan’s political operation. “I don’t view myself as a political strategist,” he said. “I view myself as a public servant.”
Then he gave me a brief biography: He grew up in the 13th Ward. His father, Bob Quinn, was 15th Ward superintendent—the powerful city worker in charge of garbage collection.
“My father was a very talented precinct worker, and he taught me you have to put in the time going door to door,” said Quinn. “I still spend a lot of time going door to door. Last year, I met 1,611 people.”
You counted?
“Yes.”
That, my friends, is the Madigan way.
* Ben’s profile reminded me of a Marty Quinn campaign story that got buried in the crush. To set it up, here’s an election day e-mail from a subscriber…
Dunkin paid people up front to work for him today.
So the Stratton people went around offering them a nice bonus to wear the yellow “Vote Against Sellout Ken Dunkin” t-shirts
A bunch switched (at least 16) and the Dunkin people gave up their orange Ken Dunkin hats.
Heh.
* Ald. Quinn was apparently collecting those Dunkin hats throughout the campaign, “like scalps,” I was told. He made quite a game out of it and stockpiled a ton of them. “I told him to save me a dozen so I can make a quilt,” one Chicago politico quipped.
One of the alderman’s prized possessions…
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The other side of reality
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Former state Rep. Mark Walker is a regular and much-appreciated commenter here. He wrote something yesterday about my column on the governor’s difficulty dealing with legislative realities that I thought I’d share…
Smart column.
You cannot make a budget deal with someone who will not accept political realities and solutions.
Rauner might counter with:
You cannot make make a budget deal with someone who will not accept economic realities and solutions.
He’s exactly right on the second point. There is far too little recognition by Democrats that something positive needs to be done for the business climate here.
* Mark goes on to say…
It comes down to the role and impact of the governor. It has been mythologized by some. Wordslinger is on point when he reminds us that the actions or policies of any governor have limited impact on the economy of a state, unless it’s investing for the long term. He also points out that if we look at the facts on the ground, not the theoretical visions, Rauner so far has caused fiscal destruction that will be hard to repair.
Again, right on all points.
But here’s the thing. This probably ain’t gonna end until everybody at the top figures out how to declare some sort of victory. So, even if the changes have only marginal impacts on the business climate (I would argue otherwise, but just saying), the governor is gonna need more than just a little something-something for his trouble. Period. Arguing otherwise is also not accepting a very concrete political reality.
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Caption contest!
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the St Charles District 303 Facebook page…
GOVERNOR BRUCE RAUNER SUPPORTS THE EAST H.S. ECONOMY- Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner paid a Career Day visit to St. Charles East H.S. today. After speaking to an assembly of students in the Norris Cultural Arts Center, Gov. Rauner toured the school. The Governor stopped in at the Saints Store and purchased official Saints gear, he also has a standing invitation to join the Orange Fever cheering section any time he wants.
* The pic…
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* Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno gave an expected party line answer yesterday to school funding…
On Monday, Senate Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) told reporters she didn’t think it was acceptable to hold up the state’s K-12 funding any longer as CPS seeks help from Springfield to fill a massive budget gap.
“What the governor has proposed is, and what we did last year, wisely in my opinion, is fund education,” she said.
Ignore, for the moment, that the Republicans voted against the K-12 appropriations bill last year (or don’t, but it’s kinda beside the point, which I’m about to get to).
* Check out this statement from Macomb Republican state Rep. Norine Hammond…
Hammond said one mistake the Legislature cannot make this summer is allowing the education budget for K-12 schools to pass through before an agreement on the rest of the budget and agenda items has been made.
“There’s no way the speaker and the president of the senate would allow the children of their constituents to run the streets of Chicago in August,” Hammond said.
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Another “turnaround”
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From back on March 21st…
Governor Bruce Rauner said he’s ready to sit down at talk with House Speaker Michael Madigan about budget issues, though he’s not publicly suggesting he is backing off any of his previous positions, reports WBBM Political Editor Craig Dellimore. […]
“The reality is, I don’t think the speaker…his style is not to be compromising in a group,” Rauner said. “That’s not how he works…my own view is further four leader meetings probably will not be productive. I’m hoping that the speaker and I can meet in private soon.”
As you already know, the governor said this same thing several times during the spring break.
* But, now…
After spending the past few weeks saying a meeting among himself and the four legislative leaders would be unproductive, Gov. Bruce Rauner now is calling for such meetings this week and next in an effort to end the state’s budget impasse.
Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno, R-Lemont, and House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, R-Western Springs, brought up Rauner’s apparent change of heart during a news conference Monday, the day House members returned to Springfield after a monthlong break. The Senate, which has been in recess for two weeks, returns today.
Durkin said the governor’s office announced Friday that it was setting aside time for the meetings.
“We’re just waiting to hear back from Democrats,” he said.
I’m starting to get whiplash.
* More…
It was unclear Monday which of the leaders Rauner’s office has reached out to.
“I’m not aware of anything different on that topic since last week,” Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said. “I’m not aware of any meetings.”
Brown said that if Republican lawmakers wanted to make progress on the budget, they could support some of the appropriations bills approved by Democrats, such as a bill to provide millions of dollars in spending authority for universities, community colleges and a variety of human-services programs.
Rauner and Republican lawmakers called those bills shams because they only authorize spending authority, they do not provide money to actually pay the bills.
“Those are propaganda votes,” Durkin said. “Illinoisans are not going to be served well if (Democrats) are going to pass these massive appropriations bills that don’t have any revenue attached to it.”
* One more…
Republicans sought to up the pressure, arguing it’s time to cut a deal as the financial condition of public universities and social service providers grows more bleak. House GOP Leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs argued the onus is on Democrats to give in on the governor’s pro-business, union-weakening agenda, saying Republicans won’t go along with a tax increase without a win on that front.
“The fact is, we’re not just going to give away our votes for nothing,” Durkin said. “The votes are going to mean something.”
Translation: neither side is ready to back down.
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* From a Mark Kirk campaign polling memo…
GS Strategy Group conducted a statewide survey of 600 likely general election voters in Illinois March 30-31, 2016. The survey yielded a margin of error of +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level. The survey tested a number of issues, including the current state of the U.S. Senate race in Illinois along with some current event issues that are important to both Illinois and the United States. Below are some key findings from the survey.
THE UNITED STATES SENATE RACE
Today, the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois between Mark Kirk and Tammy Duckworth remains incredibly tight (Duckworth 42.7%, Kirk 39.6%), and almost 18% of voters are undecided. Independent voters are nearly evenly split in their choice between Duckworth and Kirk.
Kirk’s numbers are strengthened by voters’ belief that he is an independent voice for Illinois in Washington, DC. By 2:1, respondents agreed with the statement Mark Kirk is a thoughtful, independent leader. This positive definition of Kirk as a thoughtful, independent crosses the political spectrum, with even a plurality of Democrats agreeing (33%) and by a 3:1 margin, independents agree (48% to 16%).
U.S. SUPREME COURT NOMINATION
Over 60% of voters say the U.S. Senate should hold hearings and a confirmation vote for President Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court. Illinois voters know about Mark Kirk’s independent position on the issue, bolstering his moderate image.
NATIONAL SECURITY
By large majorities, Illinois voters believe there is a likely chance America will be the target of another terrorist attack within the next year, with more than half of respondents saying it is extremely (27.6%) or very (28.1%) likely. Additionally, nearly 60% agree with Mark Kirk’s position that we should not allow Syrian refugees into the U.S. until it can be done safely. National security issues are a major vulnerability for Tammy Duckworth’s candidacy.
When voters learn about Kirk’s and Duckworth’s positions on the issues, Kirk’s record wins. From the Syrian refugee crisis to her economic record to her failures at the VA, Duckworth is vulnerable on her extreme record.
Bottom Line: While the ballot test between Mark Kirk and Tammy Duckworth remains incredibly tight, the issues voters are focused on and most passionate about provide an edge to the Kirk campaign. Duckworth’s positions on key national security issues, such as her support for allowing 200,000 Syrian refugees into the US, put her at odds with the great majority of Illinois voters. Further exacerbating the challenges to her candidacy are her clear partisan record and failings at the VA.
The full memo with more questions and results is here. Make sure to take a look at them.
* The claim that Illinoisans know about Kirk’s position on the Supreme Court issue is only partially true. A large plurality believe he did show independence, but even more don’t know…
That will change, obviously, as the campaign kicks into higher gear.
* And check out these results…
Duckworth flatly denies she ever said she wanted to accept 200,000 Syrian refugees, but a recent WaPo article on the topic quotes some Chicago reporters as saying she did. Duckworth may have misspoken, but whatever. I don’t expect Kirk to ever give up on that one.
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*** LIVE *** Session Coverage
Tuesday, Apr 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Senate returns today at noon. The House convenes at the same time. Both chambers have tons of committee hearings scheduled ahead of Friday’s deadline. Watch it all with ScribbleLive…
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