When politicians manipulate district maps, they skew results in their favor, no matter the consequences to fair representation.
* But if you click here, you’ll see Scott Kennedy’s 2014 gubernatorial election results by Illinois House district. Those districts were drawn, of course, by Speaker Madigan.
As you’ll recall, Bruce Rauner won 50.8 percent of the popular vote in 2014. Yet, by my count, Rauner won 69 of 118 House districts that same year, or 58.5 percent.
So, the Republican candidate for governor won 22 more House seats than the Republicans currently hold.
That’s why Gov. Rauner thinks he has a real shot at picking up some House seats this year. His operation is focusing like a laser on the districts he won.
* Now, it’s not as simple as this, of course. Once somebody is elected, it’s difficult to pry them loose. The House Democrats picked up seats after the 2011 remap, but besides drawing a map that certainly favored their candidates, the wins were also due to 2012 being a hugely favorable (to them) presidential election year.
By the time the national GOP wave swept through two years later, it ran smack dab into Democratic incumbents who’d been working their new districts hard for two years. And not all of those newbies had credible (or any) challengers.
But it didn’t work out that way for Congressional Democrats, who lost some seats here in 2014.
This year, the trend will likely be the Democrats’ friend yet again. If Rauner doesn’t net some gains, he’ll likely blame the map, but that won’t be totally true.
* If you go back to 1991, the last time the Republicans drew the map, Madigan’s Democrats held on to control in 1992, when Bill Clinton and Carol Moseley Braun swept the state. The Democrats lost the majority two years later in a big national GOP landslide, but gained it back in 1996, when Clinton ran again, and managed to hold onto their majority until they drew the map in 2001.
Yet, during that same time period, the Senate Republicans held the majority throughout, even with the heavy African-American migration into the south suburbs which helped upend the House GOP’s hold. Senators, however, don’t run every two years, so some lucked out and missed unfavorable wave elections.
Lots of things play into why stuff happens in politics, which is why I love it so much. It’s not a black and white, either-or game, except on election day itself, when it’s winner take all.
* And, again, let me say I think that a non-partisan map would be a good thing here. But so would California’s open primary system, where the top two vote-getters battle it out in November even if they’re from the same party. I’d love to see that brought to Illinois.
There are lots of things we can do to reform the process. But a single reform probably won’t solve all our problems. Don’t let anybody tell you otherwise, because they’re living in an overly simplistic cartoon world. I prefer the real world.
* Kyle Hillman was at the Illinois Department of Health and Human Services’ “transformation stakeholder presentation” today. A major topic, of course, was the lack of a state budget…
A speaker just said that her wait list for children mental health services has ballooned to over 900. / Illinois failed these kids.
* Meanwhile, Madigan’s members are back in their districts attempting to explain to constituents why their leader broke his promise. That cannot be an easy task in this environment.
State Rep. Jack D. Franks, D-Marengo, is calling on the Illinois Lottery to suspend online ticket sales since its statutory authority to do so expired in March, and is urging Lottery officials not to make prepayments to be able to take part in multistate lottery games – like they did last June – because of the state’s ongoing budget impasse.
“I find it troubling that the Illinois Lottery continues to sell tickets online while they no longer have the authority to do so,” Franks said. “That’s why the Lottery must suspend these sales immediately unless the state legislature grants them to the ability to continue selling online permanently.”
Franks is concerned that Illinois residents are still able to buy lottery tickets online, despite the expiration of a pilot program in March that allowed the Illinois Lottery to sell these tickets legally. In addition, in light of a recent report by the Auditor General showing that the Illinois Lottery improperly prepaid $20 million in June of 2015 to take part in future multistate lottery games, like the Powerball and Mega Millions, Franks is calling on the Lottery to not make any future prepayments due to the lack of a state budget.
Franks is calling on the Attorney General or the Governor’s Office of the Executive Inspector General to investigate the Illinois Lottery in response to the audit’s findings and the issue of online lottery sales.
“Without a state budget the Illinois Lottery does not have the legal authority to make these prepayments for next fiscal year,” Franks added. “Like any government agency, the Lottery has an obligation to follow the law, be transparent and protect taxpayer dollars, and I want to sure that they are taking these responsibilities seriously.”
* The governor’s office responds…
Hi, Rich:
Representative Franks has gotten both the facts and the law wrong. The Lottery has the legal authority to continue its online subscription program and monetary transfers to the multi-state clearinghouse that administers the Powerball and Mega Millions Lottery games. Neither is affected by the General Assembly’s ongoing refusal to do its job. We encourage Representative Franks to return to work and pass the stopgap budget rather than sending inaccurate, misguided, politically motivated press releases.
* He’s also right that the online pilot project expired months ago. The Lottery, however, contends its new rules, which changed the definition of “subscription,” allow the program to continue. And the GOPs point out that the program is bringing in $30 million for the school fund.
But Franks brings up a possible problem with those new rules. What if two people win a multi-state lottery game - one from out of state and an online buyer from Illinois? The out of stater might be able to claim that s/he should take the whole jackpot because there is no statutory authority for the Illinoisan’s winning ticket. And if that person wins the case, could state fraud be alleged by the Illinois “loser”?
* The House Democrats, by the way, are holding off making the pilot project permanent because, some of them claim, they’re worried that the Lottery wants to essentially allow online “drawings” every couple of minutes or so - kinda like having a casino on your mobile phone or personal computer.
Democrats should just announce that they have heard from a lot of constituents that are opposed to raising taxes since returning from Springfield…
…and demand the governor introduce a budget that includes no new revenue or borrowing that can be voted on by July 1.
Not a stop gap budget, or a partial budget, but a balanced, 12-month budget like he was supposed to submit 4 months ago.
That will stop the games.
Their targets and others could very well do that. It wouldn’t be a bad idea.
* But they could also run tons of advertising claiming that the numerous Republicans who sent this anti-tax hike mailer want to slash [insert much-beloved, poll-tested government spending programs] to death. Considering history, that’s highly likely…
* The Democrats believe that Sen. Mark Kirk’s new TV spot is designed to distance himself from Donald Trump. Kirk’s campaign won’t confirm. We’ll see tomorrow. From an internal Democratic e-mail…
Competitive update -Kirk buy in Chicago
June 23-30, 2016
Chicago
Broadcast $230,860 500 GRPs
Cable $28,000
Totals $258,860
Awful early for this sort of thing, particularly since he doesn’t exactly have a boatload of cash. But this is not your usual year.
“I had a conversation with one of the members in the workers compensation committee meeting,” said Bennett, “and the adjective used was insatiable. We’ll come and say that we’ll work with you and do this and this and this. And then when we have a deal all of a sudden the sand shifts and it’s a totally different deal at the end. Now they want more.
“The governor has made a lot of money by being a good negotiator and he’s used the word leverage over and over and over. I’m not putting words in his mouth. He said it. The budget is good leverage to get the things he wants.”
Bennett said Rauner “knows we’re sitting in here talking about cuts. That bothers us a lot, which puts him in a pretty strong negotiating position. I made the analogy of the way you negotiate to buy a car. And imagine the last thing as you’re handing over the keys, he says, ‘You’re going to throw your spouse’s car in too, right?’”
The Democrats are also doing this in the workers’ comp talks.
A state senator from suburban Chicago plans to move forward with a bill that would ban the trapping of bobcats and the sale of their pelts ahead of the state’s first legal hunting season for the once-threatened species in more than 40 years.
Sen. Don Harmon, D-Oak Park, said he was holding his bill because he’d reached an agreement with the Illinois Department of Natural Resources that would have reduced the number of permits available for hunting and trapping the small wild cats and further restricted where they could be hunted. But he said the department’s director, Wayne Rosenthal, walked away from the agreement toward the end of the General Assembly’s spring session “for reasons unknown to me” […]
“[We’re] proposing a very small number of permits, relatively speaking, according to the department,” he said. “And with trapping, there’s really no way to gauge how many animals you might take. If you set a half a dozen traps and you have a permit for only one bobcat, what happens if you take two?”
To be clear, Harmon specifically wanted to limit the trophy pelt business angle before new rules were promulgated ahead of hunting season. They worked on the bill for months.
The department says Harmon shouldn’t be surprised that it’s moving forward with the rules as proposed because the senator didn’t uphold his part of the agreement. He had agreed to advance a bill that would do away with registration requirements for small boats, which would save money, according to the department.
IDNR also wanted Sen. Harmon to get that proposal through the House, but wouldn’t hold off on its new rules.
* Gubernatorial recall is a stupid, spitting-into-the-wind, utter waste of time idea. It’s practically impossible to accomplish with the constitutional amendment voters approved. I’ve even banned the word in comments (and it’s still banned, so don’t try to “debate” it today, either) because it’s usually only mentioned by ignorant, hyperpartisan, hyperbolic goofballs (and that goes for Quinn’s administration, too).
* Remember yesterday when I suggested that prison-town mayors might want to consider banding together to keep the Rauner administration from singling them out? Somebody may be reading…
A City Council in the tiny western Illinois community of Mount Sterling may have voted to keep the water on at the local state prison despite Illinois’ budget impasse, but the payment battle may not be over.
Vada Yingling, city administrator in the community of about 2,000 people, said in an interview with WFMB-1450 AM in Springfield that officials may discuss organizing with other towns also faced with nonpayment of bills from the state. […]
“I think that, you know, as a city, our biggest fear is that our governor would make an example out of the first city who would make a stand,” Yingling said, noting about 100 people packed into the council chambers, many associated with jobs at the prison.
“We had gotten some phone calls from the governor’s office — not from he, himself, but from (the) governor’s office — saying that, you know, ‘Well, it’s a possibility if we have to move those inmates out because of the water being shut off, they may not be moved back and those jobs could be compromised. Do you understand that?’” she told the radio station. […]
Yingling said Mount Sterling buys water from a local water district, and almost half the water the community purchases is for the prison. On the day of the vote, she said, the town shut off seven homes for nonpayment and “their bill is nowhere near the prison’s and the prison is still getting water, so that’s hard to justify.” […]
“I would like to see if it’s somehow possible for all of us (owed money) to come together as a unified front and stay together … that we could somehow join forces and make a mightier stand together rather than individually,” she said. “Maybe the governor can’t say ‘no’ if we stand unified.”
Good luck with that.
* And speaking of mayors, this is from the governor’s office…
As the House of Representatives cancel another planned day of continuous session, more than 40 mayors penned an op-ed urging lawmakers to pass the GOP Leaders stopgap budget proposal and education budget.
This is an excerpt of the op-ed that was published this morning in the State Journal-Register:
As the Illinois General Assembly departed Springfield on May 31 without passing a budget, we now face a very uncertain future that affects not only our government, but more importantly, our citizens. As this budget stalemate continues, we need a plan to ensure funding for schools and local government until a comprehensive budget resolution can be reached.
[…] as of today, schools around the state have received no appropriation for state funding for this upcoming school year. Without this appropriation, schools are left in the precarious position of trying to figure out how to fill the hole the state budget dollars has left. […]
Thankfully, a bill introduced in Springfield by State Rep. Jim Durkin and State Sen. Christine Radogno will fund early childhood, elementary and secondary education for the upcoming school year and ensure our schools open on time this fall. Unlike previously floated education plans, this proposal is fully funded and would not require any additional revenues or add to the state’s ever-increasing bill backlog. Additionally, the bill contains a hold-harmless provision which ensures that any school which would have lost dollars under the current funding formula will at least receive the same amount as they did last year. […]
Another bill introduced by leaders Durkin and Radogno serves as a bridge to keep government functioning and protects public health, welfare and safety. As mayors, it is critically important that we have much-needed funding to address our local infrastructure needs. This fully funded stopgap budget funds the state’s full road construction program in Fiscal Year 2017, including bridge repair and local government road allocations, which are funded predominantly out of motor fuel tax funds and vehicle registration fees. […]
This common-sense plan serves as a bridge that allows schools to open, protects public safety and avoids a government shutdown. This plan is fiscally prudent and fully-funded, contrary to the numerous unfunded, out-of- balance spending plans we’ve seen come out of the legislature this session.
* From SW Illinois News, which is one of those Dan Proft newspapers…
Approaching the November elections, Republican Paul Schimpf aims to bring “common-sense” legislating, conservative values and integrity to the state Senate in District 58, which covers Monroe, St. Clair, Randolph, Perry, Jackson, Union and Jefferson counties. […]
Former Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon (2011-2015) is the current Democrat opponent in the Senate race, but Schimpf is confident that he is the right candidate to address the issues Illinois and his district are facing. […]
What makes Schimpf the best candidate for the district?
“Leadership abilities versus political lineage,” he said.
Schimpf explained that Simon comes from a tradition of politicians who do very little to serve the state; instead, they are more likely to serve themselves. He also argued that he can be a leader for everyone, not just for one party.
* Simon responds…
“I’ve expected a good debate in this campaign, but I sure didn’t expect to have to defend my father’s reputation,” said state senate candidate Sheila Simon.
Simon’s opponent, Paul Schimpf, recently referred to Simon’s lineage claiming, “Simon comes from a tradition of politicians who do very little to serve the state; instead, they are more likely to serve themselves.”
“People all over southern Illinois have fond memories of my dad. Most often, folks say they appreciated dad’s honesty,” Simon said.
“The Paul Simon I knew and respected was a Lutheran minister’s kid who drove an old Chevrolet and knew a lot more about where to find a cold Pepsi than a vintage wine, “said U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, Paul Simon’s successor in the Senate. “He even bargained his SIU salary down when he started the Simon Institute. Sheila’s opponent will have his hands full trying to smear the reputation of one of the most honest and caring politicians in our state’s history. ”
“I respect my dad’s record of public service,” Simon said. “He did it in uniform overseas, as a newspaper editor, and in Springfield and Washington. That’s a tradition I’m proud to be a part of.”
After promising that the House would be in continuous session and meet each Wednesday, Mike Madigan announced yesterday that session would be canceled for the third week in a row.
Mike Madigan is hiding behind the working groups. He is using them as a stall tactic in order to create a crisis so that he can ram through a massive tax hike with no reforms.
Meanwhile, statehouse Republicans and the Governor have two ready-to-go bills that would ensure that schools open on time in the fall, critical government services function and prisons continue to operate.
Madigan and House Democrats might have the luxury of taking a vacation from reality, but parents and public safety officials do not.
The calls will target Reps. Beiser, Bradley, Cloonen, Mussman, Phelps, Skoog, Smiddy and Yingling.
As subscribers know, those “ready-to-go bills” aren’t actually ready because college-town legislators (including Republicans) wanted more higher ed spending.
There’s nothing State Rep Sam Yingling likes more than a little fun in the sun this summer at taxpayer’s expense.
Instead of doing their job, House Speaker Mike Madigan and State Rep Sam Yingling are playing hooky again by cancelling session.
Yingling is too busy worrying about his tan to be concerned with putting public safety, vital services and schools first.
With their shades on and umbrella drink in hand, Madigan and State Rep Yingling continue to hold the budget hostage while trying to force through a massive tax hike with no reforms.
You can help end State Rep Sam Yingling’s summer vacation early by visiting www.rebuildillinois.com to sign the petition telling Yingling to get off the beach and get back to work. Put public safety, our schools and the needs of our district ahead of Chicago political boss Mike Madigan’s taxpayer funded getaway.
Paid for by The Illinois Republican Party. xxx-xxx-xxxx
According to Trump’s latest report to the Federal Election Commission, his campaign had $1.289 million on hand on May 31. At the same time, Democrat Hillary Clinton had $42.461 million in her presidential campaign fund.
But Trump doesn’t trail just Clinton in campaign funding. Here are some other political candidates with more money in their funds than Trump had on May 31:
Local School Council members from more than a quarter of Chicago Public Schools are urging city leaders to come up with local solutions to the district’s budget crisis.
As CPS has stared down a $1 billion budget shortfall, city officials led by CPS chief Forrest Claypool have pushed for increased funding from the state to fill a chunk of the yawning budget gap. But lobbying and demonstrations downstate won’t be enough to prevent cuts at city schools, according to restive LSC members from across the city. More than 500 LSC members from 141 CPS schools signed onto a petition demanding action that doesn’t require approval from Springfield including shortening the school day and year; draining funds from TIF districts; and canceling plans to build a new high school to be named for Barack Obama. […]
The statement did not mention local revenue sources or cuts suggested by the LSC group.
They’re right that the city needs to stop waiting on an ultimate solution from the state.
But cutting the length of school days and shortening the school year just don’t make sense when CPS is making significant progress with its graduation rate. CPS used to have one of the shortest school days and school years of any district in the country (and even much of the developed world).
It’s beyond me why school council members would suggest such a thing, other than they’re shilling for the CTU.
* Brownie responds to Gov. Rauner’s off-handed remark the other day that he’ll run for reelection…
Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said Rauner’s quiet announcement made it look like the decision was unplanned.
“He blurted it out. It was hardly a well-prepared statement,” Brown said.
When asked which Democratic might face off against Rauner come 2018, Brown said he’s not entirely convinced the current governor would automatically get the GOP nomination.
“After trashing (Donald) Trump, Rauner’s going to have to go up against other Republican candidates in a primary,” Brown said. “And there’s no surety he’ll be the candidate.”
I’d put the likelihood of Rauner losing a 2018 Republican primary at less than one percent, because the likelihood that he’ll even draw a viable GOP opponent is probably almost as low.
I mean, which prominent Trump supporter would make the governor pay for his anti-Trump words come 2018? Heck, is there even a single prominent Trump supporter in this state who could mount a realistic bid? I can’t think of one.
Beyond that, who wants to go up against tens of millions of dollars and a hugely negative oppo machine? Sure, Jim Edgar is making the occasional speech and giving the occasional interview, but that’s a far cry from a full-blown, all-out, big-dollar primary challenge to his party’s sitting governor (which would undoubtedly feature a re-opening of some old wounds, including MSI). Plus, he’s already passed on how many statewide comeback bids?
Until I see a real name, I’ll just repeat the old phrase: You can’t beat somebody with nobody.
