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Don’t hold your breath
Wednesday, Jun 22, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller * Brownie responds to Gov. Rauner’s off-handed remark the other day that he’ll run for reelection…
I’d put the likelihood of Rauner losing a 2018 Republican primary at less than one percent, because the likelihood that he’ll even draw a viable GOP opponent is probably almost as low. I mean, which prominent Trump supporter would make the governor pay for his anti-Trump words come 2018? Heck, is there even a single prominent Trump supporter in this state who could mount a realistic bid? I can’t think of one. Beyond that, who wants to go up against tens of millions of dollars and a hugely negative oppo machine? Sure, Jim Edgar is making the occasional speech and giving the occasional interview, but that’s a far cry from a full-blown, all-out, big-dollar primary challenge to his party’s sitting governor (which would undoubtedly feature a re-opening of some old wounds, including MSI). Plus, he’s already passed on how many statewide comeback bids? Until I see a real name, I’ll just repeat the old phrase: You can’t beat somebody with nobody. Move along.
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- jack28 - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:00 am:
Only certainty is that Brown’s employer will run i the next 10 elections. Why he is speculating about what the other party would do is beyond me.
- Saluki - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:02 am:
Unfortunately you are right Rich. The withering attack that a republican primary candidate would have to go through would be brutal.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:03 am:
Reality?
Rauner will have his own slated Raunerite Ticket.
Anyone thinking they can beat that ticket in a Primary isn’t just a fool’s errand, it would be ignorant to understanding that the Raunerites own the GOP. It’s that “simple”.
- Formerly Known as Frenchie M - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:06 am:
The only way Rauner won’t be on the ticket is if there’s some sort of growing legal issue that he — between now and then — walks into.
- Curious - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:07 am:
This suggestion seems…ill-advised. What’s the strategic gain of even suggesting that? Shouldn’t Dems be talking over and over about how formidable Gov. Rauner will be in 2018 to boost fundraising efforts? Seems like a missed opportunity at the very least.
- The Captain - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:07 am:
Also he appears to be in a full-blown financial partnership with the Proft/Uihlein wing of the party, he just personally gave them $2.5 million, so he’s unlikely to see a challenge from them.
A candidate backed by Edgar probably isn’t enough, it wasn’t for Dillard last time, anything short of Edgar himself probably won’t work. I think he cares enough, but the fire is gone.
Having said all that, if we’re going to think about really fun scenarios that definitely won’t happen it’s possible that Mark Kirk will be looking for a new job around that time. Hard to imagine a primary that would be more fun than that one.
- A Citizen - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:08 am:
Oh no ! Not Edgar talk again. Maybe mjm will finally be brave enuf to try his own turn.
- SAP - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:08 am:
Until there is someone willing to go toe-to-toe with Rauner (and Griffin and Uihlein and so on) on the spending side, there will not be a viable primary opponent for Rauner. And I do not see that happening.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:08 am:
Brownie’s blowin’ smoke. That might be the more interesting reaction than the reaction he’s reacting to.
- retired guy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:12 am:
Right now, he’s just a big windbag. I don’t think he will gain any ground on the democrats in the next several years and his ratings will remain in the toilet. I don’t think he will end up running again.
- Indochine - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:13 am:
I think the people want William Kelly with Doug Ibendahl as his campaign manager.
Seriously, the only person I can think of would be Adam Alphabet. I don’t think he would pull the trigger, but he will flirt with the idea as he loves the attention.
- Indochine - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:14 am:
@Retired guy: That’s what they said about Rick Scott in FL, and he got re-elected. Nobody in the whole state likes him.
- phocion - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:15 am:
Brown is playing to the newly formed and fragile Madigan coalition. They’re trying to get everyone to stay on board with their prognostication that Rauner cannot win a second term. They’re playing for time to keep the pressure off of Madigan to just make a deal with Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:17 am:
Rauner is going to run for reelection.
Rauner will win… reelection.
It’s the toughest thing to do, beat an incumbent governor in Illinois.
It took $60+ million to take out Quinn after Quinn already won a full term four years earlier.
- Albany Park Patriot - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:19 am:
Rauner has done a pretty good job of showing what happens when you elect someone like Trump, who bases their administration on a business resume. Plus, Rauner plays to the same divisive rhetoric as Trump. I think he will have the Trump folks locked up. It’s the Edgar folks that he’ll have problems with.
- Abe the Babe - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:19 am:
After a week of the Gov claiming all his enemies were just trying to outlast him, why wouldn’t he say he was running again?
Whether he means it or not is another story.
- Fool On The Hill - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:20 am:
For me, the question remains who will run on the Democrat side. I assumed that the Rauner machine would go for another term. Ego and power are powerful blinders to reality, as we have observed over the past 18 months.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:24 am:
Rauner’s chance of losing a primary challenge is roughly the same as Madigan’s, despite different constituencies.
Almost 0.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:26 am:
Rauner will not run again because of ego.
Rauner will run again to make sure the ROI… ($20 million to run the first time, $20 million to own the Raunerite GA members, the $5 million to slam Denocrats, the millions given to Proft… )… has a suitable Rauner result.
Once governor always “governor”.
The title is secured. It the ROI that isn’t.
- Trolling Troll - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:32 am:
I can’t wait to see his list of “accomplishments”.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:34 am:
===I can’t wait to see his list of “accomplishments”.===
“I’m fightin’ for you!”
That’s Rauner’s accomplishment.
It will be enough to win.
- Illinois Bob - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:41 am:
The primary reason that Rauner won the primary is that the goofy IEA/IFT leadership was pushing Rutherford who had deep “flaws” as a candidate. If they put their money on Dillard, who may be happy being RTA chairman, Rauner could be beat. he’s a “go along to get along” guy who would have no problem giving unions pretty much everything they want. He’s on great terms with Madigan and Cullerton as well. I recall Dillard telling me the story about how Madigan and Cullerton called him on Mothers Day when they were redistricting after 2010 to make sure he was satisfied with his new district.
Maybe Illinois is ready for a Dillard type of governor after this mess. He certainly could be formidable if he wants it.
- Trolling Troll - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:41 am:
“I’m fightin for you”
I bet those 400 people believe that.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:47 am:
===…goofy IEA/IFT leadership…===
===…no problem giving unions pretty much everything they want.===
Hatred of teachers is not found everywhere. Pathetic.
===I bet those 400 people believe that.===
It will be enough to win. That… and $90 million behind that message. Don’t forget the $90 million with no primary opponent.
- Belle - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:52 am:
He could get indicted (no idea what that would be)—he will still be the GOP guy but maybe not win the election (Ryan).
- Illinois bob - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:58 am:
=Hatred of teachers is not found everywhere. Pathetic.=
So any criticism of unions, or stating the fact that certain candidates are in their back pocket, is “hatred”?
Wow. You set your hate standards pretty low.
I grew up on the South Side of Chicago where we learned very young what “hate” meant during the block busting and racial violence days.
You have no clue as to what the term really means….
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:58 am:
- Belle -
Rauner will not be indicted, Rauner will run for reelection, Rauner will win.
Nothing, nothing close to GHR.
- Trolling Troll - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 9:59 am:
OW- I believe what you say to be true. People vote against their best interests. I just can’t imagine seven and a half more years of….this. So I am hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.
- A Jack - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:01 am:
Dunkin had a lot of money and OW predicted he would win too.
Finding a viable primary opponent may be difficult, particularly among the wimpy ILGOP party, although a white knight might appear from out of state.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:04 am:
The Governor will need another term because he sure as heck isn’t accomplishing anything this term. He’s wasted a year and a half of it telling everyone why he isn’t capable of actually doing his job as the Governor. Maybe he’ll figure it out if we give him just a few more years.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:06 am:
=Rauner will run again to make sure the ROI=
$60 Mill is the starting point of what he is willing to spend for reelection.
He spent $60 Mill to get here. If another $60 Mill or more is required to secure a ROI and not waste the first $60 Mill, then that is what will be spent.
- Root - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:06 am:
The only way Rauner has a primary challenge is if Trump is elected president and then goes on a scorched-earth campaign to punish Republicans who weren’t loyal to him. Even then, Rauner will be renominated.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:08 am:
===Dunkin had a lot of money and OW predicted he would win too.===
I did? You sure? You read what I wrote, exactly as I wrote it?
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:10 am:
Alan Keyes?
/s
- Jeep - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:11 am:
He thinks the union is trying to wait him out. Is he worried if he gets a kangaroo court ruling from his ILRB that AFSCME will appeal it in court thus tying it up for a while or maybe get it overturned? Hence he needs another term to get to them.
- Fool On The Hill - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 10:15 am:
OW
I agree about the ROI. Insightful. Although I think his ego will say he needs to prove that he is mightier than the negative ratings in the polls.
- Michael Westen - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 11:08 am:
Will Rauner win re-election? As always it depends on the opponent. If Quinn-yes. If Lisa Madigan-maybe. If Dick Durbin-no.
- A Jack - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 11:13 am:
OW, yes you did say Dunkin would win reelection back around the time of the New York trip fiasco.
But I am happy that prediction didn’t pan out.
Rauner says right now he is going to run again. But if the ILHGOP loses seats, and he faces being a powerless figurehead, he might decide throwing more money at a bad investment is not worth it. Any successful investor knows when it’s time to cut your loses.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 11:22 am:
===OW, yes you did say Dunkin would win reelection back around the time of the New York trip fiasco.===
Ugh.
Yeah, and thoughts like that galvanized many to warn Democrats what was at stake.
It wasn’t snark, I was writing to recognize that allowing things to stay that way will lead to Dunkin winning…
If you can’t understand “intent” in writing…
… you also realize I try to be the first out of the gate to admit I’m wrong.
Why do you think I didn’t admit that with Dunkin?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 11:24 am:
(Tips cap to - Fool on the Hill -)
- If I Could Turn Back Time - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 11:51 am:
OW-You are wise and I do not doubt what you say, ever. With that said, I hope you’re wrong about Rauner winning another term. Predictions about a possible BR vs LM election battle?
I often wonder how different things would be for IL had J Ryan won in 2002 instead of Blago.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 11:55 am:
- If I Could Turn Back Time -
Thank you for your very kind words.
Unless there’s a Democrat that will be willing to raise and spend $100 million and face no primary challenge…
… Rauner will win.
It’s just really impossible to defeat an incumbent governor, especially one that will go $90 million deep and won’t face a primary.
- SHAKE - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:00 pm:
Dillard Would Beat Rauner….
- Mama - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:02 pm:
Rauner has been campaigning for re-election ever since he was elected. By the time Rauner will officially run for re-election, he will have campaigning for 6 years. He makes sure he is in the newspaper or TV news everyday. Wake up people - he can win again.
- A guy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:07 pm:
===Dillard Would Beat Rauner….===
As in, third time’s a charm? Hope you have a prescription for that weed. /s
- Mama - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:07 pm:
If Mark Kirk can not win his Senate seat back, he can not win the governor’s chair.
Due to the fact that very few people know who Dillard is, I don’t think Dillard could beat Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:08 pm:
Ugh.
No. No Dillard would NOT win.
There’s only ONE “candidate” that has my attention in a race against Rauner.
One.
- illinois bob - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:50 pm:
=There’s only ONE “candidate” that has my attention in a race against Rauner.=
And THAT would be……?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:53 pm:
I’m not feeding you - Illinois Bob -…
- illinois bob - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 12:54 pm:
Perhaps I’m prejudiced because I’d probably vote for Dillard over Rauner, but maybe Illinois is sick of the drama, and the “turnaround agenda” is understood by few voters and there really isn’t much passion for it.
“Elect Dillard for Governor-it’s time for a rest…”
BTW, OW, I REALLY hope your candidate isn’t Tom Cross….
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 3:10 pm:
Meh, I think Brown’s just goofing around, having a bit of fun with his own version of oompa-loompa like the superstars do.
There’s no reason to think today that there will be a credible primary candidate against Rauner.
Who would be on that “credible” list, anyway? Not a deep bench. Are there a lot of prospects down in Single-A nobody knows about? Who would be their sugar daddies?
If Edgar didn’t challenge Blago or Quinn, it’s silly to think he would go after Rauner in a primary.
- Way Way Down Here - Wednesday, Jun 22, 16 @ 4:56 pm:
===Alan Keyes?===
Well. . .he’d probably win Iroquois County again.
- Mcleaniac - Thursday, Jun 23, 16 @ 6:30 am:
2 words : Bill Brady.
- West Loop - Thursday, Jun 23, 16 @ 8:04 am:
Rauner’s Approval ratings are already in the tank years out from reelection. Throw in the fact that he will eventually be signing a budget that raises taxes (and thus burning the 30% of the IL electorate still supporting him) and he has a very slim path to reelection.