* The Super PAC helping Mark Kirk’s Senate bid has released a poll to Greg Hinz. It was taken by GOP pollster Basswood Research…
The poll has Kirk edging ahead of Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth 41.9 percent to 40.4 percent, within the poll’s plus or minus 3.5 percent margin of error, but better than the narrow 42.5 percent to 42 percent lead Duckworth held when Basswood last surveyed in April. […]
Normally I’d say an incumbent with only 41.9 percent backing is in some trouble. But this is a strange leader, and it’s hard to say without knowing more about the roughly one in five voters who is undecided.
In comparison to the Senate contest, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a wide lead in her home state over the GOP’s Trump.
Specifically 46.4 percent of likely voters surveyed by telephone said they favor Clinton, 32.5 percent are for Trump, 5.2 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2.6 percent for the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Just over 13 percent were undecided.
Back on the Senate race, Basswood says Kirk is doing 22 points better than Trump among moderates, and 24 points better among women. Basswood’s research memo didn’t say what the relative margin is among Republicans and men, but it obviously is much smaller.
There are other Senate incumbents polling around 42 percent, so it’s not completely unusual, but he really ought to be doing better than that.
…Adding… I was just reminded by a “helpful” Democrat that the poll was taken when Kirk was the only Senate candidate on the airwaves with ads. Duckworth went up the next day.
* Eric Elk, who commissioned the poll, told me that the poll’s partisan makeup was Dem+10. The survey size was 800 and it was conducted July 12-13. No word yet on what percentage of respondents were mobile phone users, which is an important thing to know these days.
…Adding… Mobile phone users were 25 percent of respondents. Could be higher, but better than nothing.
The pollster’s memo is here.
…Adding More… Kirk is actually doing much better vis-à-vis Trump than some of his GOP colleagues…
“We’re not running presidential races,” said Ward Baker, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We’re running sheriff races.”
So far, the divide is holding. Sen. Marco Rubio polls about 5 percentage points ahead of Trump in Florida, Sen. Rob Portman is 4 points up on him in Ohio, and Sen. Pat Toomey has a 6-point edge over the nominee in Pennsylvania, according to RealClearPolitics rolling averages.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 1:40 pm:
The Clinton lead says everything about the state of IL. And, I don’t mean everything good.
- Robert the Bruce - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 1:43 pm:
While our state’s voters don’t mind splitting their tickets, I didn’t expect as many as are indicated by this poll.
- Lester Holt's Mustache - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 1:57 pm:
I’m not sure how a +10 D with Hill leading by 14 works out to a Kirk win, but as my kids say “whatevs”. As much flack as Kirk has taken from the right wing, along with the D base that will surely go heavy for Duckworth - I just don’t see how Kirk can pull that off. As long as Basswood keeps making $$ off the Kirk campaign, might as well keep it optimistic.
And anonymous, you’re welcome to move to a trump supporting state at any time. Maybe you can chant “Lock her up” as you’re packing. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!
- illini - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:03 pm:
Hard to imagine that anything like this will hold until November - this is still July.
It is going to seem like a long time until the General Election finally comes.
- Honeybear - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:10 pm:
Hopefully HRC will stay above 10 points up in Illinois. I plan to vote for Jill as I did last election. If it gets below 10 in Illinois I will hold my nose and vote HRC. I feel it’s important to help third parties get more federal funding in the next election.
- A guy - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:21 pm:
It’s an early poll, pre-convention. Really a snap shot, but it is showing a bit of a trend from their last poll. I’m not certain that even the Trump crew wouldn’t be happy with this number here right now. D +10 would seem to emulate what is projected in a Presidential year general election. That projection may or may not hold. This is typical of Kirk type races. It’s a fidgety group out there. Polling won’t get any easier I don’t think.
- Stan - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:22 pm:
It isn’t exactly uh-oh time for the Duckworth campaign, but frankly I am amazed Kirk has any kind of lead. I think you have to give the Kirk campaign a bit of credit for keeping this one close.
- Touré's Latte - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:26 pm:
Duckworth has a tough road, especially if they hit the editorial boards and WTTW when Kirk is well-rested.
- AlfondoGonz - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:28 pm:
Not sure how others read this as a good thing for Kirk. The incumbent is tied this early and the top of the ticket will bring a ton of voters who will simply fill out “D” all the way down. I’d say Kirk is toast.
- A guy - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 2:59 pm:
Gonz, the poll was D+10. It’s accounting for higher turnout on the Dem side. Even that is a bit risky this go around.
- Anonymous - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 3:04 pm:
Once upon a time the term “June swoon” referred to the Chicago Cubs blowing an early division lead in the NL standings and faltering in the summer. Now, it may apply to Duckworth. She ought to be cruising to victory. I am not sure that she is actually a good retail campaigner when left on her own.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Jul 22, 16 @ 3:15 pm:
Good on you, Honeybear, for your voting strategy. A Trump presidency would likely be disastrous for public union rights as far as SCOTUS and Trump wanting another Scalia.
- Mouse in ill - Monday, Jul 25, 16 @ 4:23 pm:
Why doesn’t kirk advertise in southern il
Just hanging out in Chicago won’t get him elected.