Senator Mark Kirk, a major Republican who has un-endorsed Donald Trump, announced on CNN this afternoon he’s writing in Colin Powell.
When Brooke Baldwin asked about Hillary Clinton, Kirk said, “I can’t support someone who is for the Iran agreement.”
Er, he might want to reconsider that Powell write-in vote then. Per NBC News:
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed support for the nuclear agreement with Iran on Sunday, calling the various planks Iranian leaders accepted “remarkable” and dismissing critics’ concerns over its implementation.
“It’s a pretty good deal,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Oops again. You’ll recall that he switched to Powell after dumping his previously favored candidate Gen. Petraeus.
Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump in several swing House districts, Democratic Party officials say in a new memo obtained by POLITICO that touts the party’s down-ballot prospects in November but does not predict they’ll capture the chamber.
Clinton is posting double-digit leads in several vulnerable Republican districts including Rep. Bob Dold in Illinois, Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, California freshman Rep. Steve Knight, Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado and Rep. Erik Paulsen in Minnesota, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee memo states. [Emphasis added.]
Problem #3: Top of the Ticket Performance Dictates the Outcome of House Races
A “congressional firewall” argument from national Republicans cannot reverse this trend
Down-ballot races are always driven by the presidential race, with performance in House races closely tied to presidential performance. With the country getting more polarized overall, this trend only increases. As Dave Wasserman notes, “Today, rates of split-ticket voting are at all-time lows and House candidates are defined by their party and the top of the ticket more than ever.”
For example, in 2008 and 2012, the national average difference in support between the top of the ticket and the House was only 1.9%. In 2014, 93% of the outcomes in House races followed the 2012 presidential result.
The 2016 election is a nationalized race defined by Donald Trump, and the national polls have Clinton in a clear lead […]
Recent DCCC polling shows that this reality is also playing out in the swing districts:
In CA-10: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 6 points
In CA-25: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 12 points
In CO-06: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points
In FL-07: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points
In FL-26: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 24 points In IL-10: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 31 points
In MN-03: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 24 points
Donald Trump’s likely defeat in many swing districts will be a devastating anchor that drags down House Republicans all across the country.
• Brad Schneider is beating Bob Dold (46% Schneider / 40% Dold)—and he has more room to grow. Schneider has a name ID deficit (64% name ID for Schneider / 77% for Dold), and voters who can identify both candidates give Schneider an even larger 18-point lead (54% Schneider / 36% Dold). So Schneider’s lead could very well expand as people get reacquainted with the candidates.
o One of Schneider’s best groups is voters under 35 years old (52% Schneider / 33% Dold) who are more likely to turn out in a Presidential election than a midterm.
• This district is rejecting Donald Trump and the Republican brand. Hillary Clinton holds a 31-point lead in a race for President (56% Clinton / 25% Trump). Voters overwhelmingly dislike Trump (22% favorable / 74% unfavorable), including 64% of
voters who have a very unfavorable view of Trump.
o Even more importantly, voters say they are more likely to vote Democratic than Republican for Congress in an unnamed matchup for Congress (49% Democrat / 31% Republican).
o Voters who are currently undecided in the vote for Congress lean Democratic by almost 2:1 before they hear candidate names (37% Democrat / 19% Republican), making them likely to break for Schneider.
o Barack Obama is also very popular in the district (63% favorable / 35% unfavorable), and voters think he is doing a good job as President (67% positive / 32% negative).
This analysis is based off of a survey of n=400 November 2016 voters in IL CD-10, conducted via cellphone and landline telephone August 2-4, 2016. The data was weighted to be representative of past voter turnout. The margin of sampling error for the overall sample is +4.9% at the 95% confidence level, and it is higher for subgroups.
* Second City Cop, which is usually known for its loud defense of Chicago police officers, has a striking takedown of the “monumental failure in training and preparing officers for street duty” during the pursuit and eventual killing of Paul O’Neal. There’s some foul language in the post, so be careful if your workplace rules are stringent, but it’s today’s must read.
U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and U.S. Rep. Bob Dold (R-IL,10) are among the elected officials scheduled to attend a Wednesday morning roundtable discussion in Chicago on “commonsense” immigration reform.
Speakers at the Illinois Business Immigration Coalition’s discussion “will be coming together to discuss best practices for engaging bipartisan members of Congress to pass sensible reform that expands visas for high and low skilled workers and agricultural workers, and creates a path to citizenship for undocumented workers,” according to an announcement.
Also expected to attend the event are U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL,25), Illinois State Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno and various business leaders.
“The elected officials speaking in the roundtable discussion are part of a growing group of conservative voices who favor reform over walls and are calling for commonsense immigration legislation in 2017, which would reduce the federal deficit by nearly $900 billion and would strengthen Social Security by $700 billion,” the announcement reads.
I want my U.S. Senators in Illinois to be consistent allies for immigrants and fighters for immigration reform. I want them to be in touch with the concerns of the Latino community and the city of Chicago. I don’t want them to oppose immigrant rights on principle and occasionally flip-flop when it’s politically convenient. And I sure don’t want them to frequently embarrass the state of Illinois by making Trump-like offensive comments, especially about immigrants and Latinos. That’s why I’m voting for Democrat Tammy Duckworth for U.S. Senate this November and I urge everyone reading this to do the same.
For the last four years, I have served in the U.S. House of Representatives with Tammy and she’s been at my side, fighting for immigration reform. Republican Mark Kirk, on the other hand, has been nowhere to be found — until recently when he started running for re-election. Suddenly he wants to claim the mantle of immigration reform. Kirk’s decision to start talking about immigration reform may be politically convenient but it lacks political conviction.
That rant, which goes on for quite a while, was forwarded to me three times today by the Duckworth campaign, along with statements Kirk has made and votes he’s taken on this issue that aren’t exactly in line with today’s event.
So, yeah, he hasn’t always been a loyal ally. And, yes, it’s an election year. But the Illinois Business Immigration Coalition is a legit group, not some partisan front. It has proven its bonafides by working diligently with both sides of the aisle.
Let it go.
*** UPDATE *** Back in 2006, candidate Duckworth was all fired up in a Daily Herald interview about adding thousands more border patrol agents and being against “amnesty” and requiring immigrants to learn English…
Q. List the three or four most important elements of your preferred immigration reform and explain what objectives they would achieve.
Duckworth. In any immigration reform, protecting our borders must be the top priority. In an era of global terrorism, it is unconscionable that the federal government has failed to address the millions of people who continue to enter the U.S. illegally. I would start by adding 12,000 new Border Patrol agents to the current force. We also need Congress to pass a comprehensive reform of our immigration system.
The proposal that I support does not provide amnesty. Instead, it requires illegal immigrants to pay fines, undergo criminal background checks, and pay all back taxes. Immigrants would be compelled to learn English and take courses in American culture and civics. If - and only if - an immigrant meets all of those requirements while continuing to be gainfully employed, he or she would be allowed to pursue legal status. Even then, these applicants would have to go to the back of the line.
Seeking to keep a targeted Lake County legislative seat in GOP hands, House Republican strategists on Thursday will launch cable television ads highlighting past convictions of Democratic challenger Nick Ciko for theft of a parking pass in college and driving under the influence of alcohol years later.
Ciko, 42, a middle school teacher from Lindenhurst, said Wednesday he is sorry for mistakes he made while he was younger, but the political strategy is “exactly what’s wrong with Illinois and the politics of self-destruction that makes people sick.”
Mike Schrimpf, a former deputy chief of staff to Gov. Bruce Rauner, who now works as a consultant in several state legislative races, confirmed to the Daily Herald the cable ads will begin airing Thursday and detail a 1996 theft conviction Ciko has recently been seeking to expunge from his record.
Ciko, a teacher at Mundelein Elementary District 75 and an Antioch-Lake Villa High School District 117 board member, is making a bid against first-term GOP incumbent Sheri Jesiel, of Winthrop Harbor, in the 61st state House district.
As one Republican remarked, this is “Vetting malpractice. Putting that poor schmuck up just to get nuked from orbit.”
Nick Ciko pled guilty to stealing, but wants us to trust him with our money?
Now that he’s running for state representative, Nick Ciko has been working to cover up his record of theft, deception and recklessness.
As a union leader, Ciko got caught making false statements. Adding to his rap sheet of driving under the influence and theft.
That’s why Mike Madigan is spending big to prop up Ciko’s failing campaign. And why Illinois voters will vote no on Nick Ciko.
Oof.
Although the part about Madigan spending big money to prop him up is kinda funny, considering how far down the food chain the candidate is. But, hey, just about every GOP hit piece these days includes Madigan somehow. The accompanying mailer is here. The allegation about false statements is explained here.
* So, why are the Republicans spending money on this little guy? Because Gov. Rauner’s cash means they can easily afford to make sure he doesn’t ever come even a little close.
Illinois experienced 1,652 overdose deaths in 2014 – a nearly 30 percent increase since 2010. Forty percent of those deaths were associated with heroin. Illinois is ranked number one in the nation for a decline in treatment capacity between 2007 and 2012 – and is now ranked the third worst in the country for state-funded treatment capacity.
Illinois as a state is just plain horrible at dealing with this public health crisis and has been horrible for a long while.
Dianna Morrison read from her son Shawn Holbrook’s obituary. It is a passionate and powerful message on what heroin can do.
“The beast won this particular war, but the fight is far from over now,” Morrison said.
Shawn Holbrook served two tours in the United States Army during Desert Storm. Holbrook was a member of the Night Stalkers, which is a special operations aviation regiment.
“He never talked about the military after he come home,” said Morrison
Holbrook’s mother said he couldn’t.
“He had a lot of built up things that he never talked about, that I wished he could have talked about,” Morrison said.
Mr. Shawn Holbrook, age 48 of Anna, died Wednesday, July 27, 2016. He was born February 2, 1968 in Carbondale.
Shawn is survived by his daughter, Kaitlyn Rae Holbrook of Salem; mother, Dianne Morrison of Anna; father, Dennis Barry Holbrook of Murphysboro; two sisters, Heather Holbrook of Milwaukee, WI, and Shannon Jauch of Springfield; uncle, Tim Morrison and fiancé, Shelley of Cobden; aunt, Deborah (Buzz) Crowell of Anna; nieces and nephews; best friends, Dean Bernhard and Todd Lasley; special friend Tasha Simmerman; other relatives and many friends.
Shawn enjoyed the outdoors, arrowhead, morel and ginseng hunting were a few of his favorites. He proudly served his country in the U.S. Army Special Forces, serving two tours of duty overseas. Finally ranked as E6 Staff Sergeant after five years and nine months of service, a rank of this level is highly marked in such a short time. His military occupational specialty was 67U3C0, medium helicopter repair.
Shawn loved his sisters and was very proud of his family. His daughter Kaitlyn decided to follow in her father’s footsteps and join the U.S. Army a well, currently she is stationed in Ft. Jackson South Carolina for Basic Training.
How does one recover from war? Many don’t. Not fully. As noted from his ranking, Shawn was wicked smart. Many years ago, Shawn was diagnosed with PTSD, which is a very real struggle for many of our nations Veterans. PTSD led to one addiction after another. Many people have a misperception of addiction, and the struggles one endures when the demon latches on to their back. Heroin is a beast and Shawn did not seek out to be an addict, but many things led to that and he left all his fight on the battle field in Desert Storm, fighting for our freedom. The beast won this particular war, but the fight is far from over.
We are all faced with challenges every day and it is our choice how we deal with those in the beginning. However, after one bad choice that takes us down the path of destruction, we don’t always have the choice to turn back around. It doesn’t make us week, or bad, but it ensures that we are all human.
The purpose of this obituary is not to excuse Shawn from anything he has ever done, but to promote awareness and education not only for addiction, but heroin addiction. Please as you read this, take a mental note of anyone you know struggling from addition. We all know someone. They need help and support, not to enable but to fight, as sometimes the demons are too strong for them to fight alone. Please pray for his family as they say their goodbyes, remember the good times and lay him to rest peacefully.
Funeral services for Mr. Shawn Reed Holbrook will be at 1:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 3, 2016 in the Rendleman & Hileman Funeral Home in Anna. Interment will be in the Anna City Cemetery. Graveside military rites will be conducted by the Carroll P. Foster Post #3455 of the V.F.W. in Anna and the Illinois Army National Guard Military Honors Team of Marion. Friends may call after 11:00 a.m. and until the service hour at 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday, August 3, 2016 in the Rendleman & Hileman Funeral Home in Anna. Memorial contributions may be made to the Rendleman & Hileman Funeral Home to assist the family with expenses. Envelopes will be available in the Rendleman & Hileman Funeral Home in Anna.
Chicago Public Schools CEO Forrest Claypool on Tuesday warned that cuts to the classroom would be necessary if teachers don’t agree to concessions in a new contract.
Claypool ratcheted up pressure on the Chicago Teachers Union a day after the district unveiled a budget that assumes teachers will accept contract terms similar to those that were rejected in February by a union bargaining team.
“The alternative is cuts to the classroom,” Claypool said during a meeting with the Tribune Editorial Board. “We don’t believe it’s the right thing to do, and we’re hopeful that upon reflection the teachers union will understand that’s not the right thing to do either.” […]
“I think if he wants to take a look at who’s been doing the cutting and who’s responsible for the cutting, he should look in the mirror,” CTU Vice President Jesse Sharkey said. “To turn around and blame that on us is really hypocritical and not acceptable.”
That is some weak spin by the CTU. There’ve been cuts because cuts are needed so schools can stay open. It’s now the CTU’s turn.
The district’s contract proposal phased out the district’s longstanding practice of picking up the bulk of teacher pension contributions and increased union insurance premiums in exchange for a series of pay hikes over four years and a promise of no economic layoffs. Union leaders have long said ending the pension pickup could be cause for a strike.
“At some point, a line has to be drawn in the sand. Chicago teachers do not seek to go on strike. We want to return to clean, safe, resourced schools. We want a fair contract,” Lewis said. “We will not accept an imposed pay cut.”
Sometimes, a fair contract means less money. Just ask the UAW, which negotiated a fair contract to keep GM from collapsing.
“The CTU has also been very clear—CPS is broke on purpose. Instead of chasing phantom revenue in Springfield and in between the seat cushions of Chicago taxpayers, Mayor Emanuel and the Chicago City Council can show true leadership and guts by reinstating the corporate head tax, declaring a TIF surplus and fighting for progressive taxation that would pull in revenue from the uber-wealthy in our city and state. The rich must pay their fair share.”
Reinstating the head tax would bring in about $23 million. Emanuel is currently working out a reasonable plan on the TIF surplus issue. And a progressive tax is a pipe dream unless significantly more liberals are elected to both legislative chambers.
“And, though educators have already returned about $2 billion in salary and benefits to the district, with $100 million being returned this year alone, we are being asked to give more when there is nothing left to give. Understand that budget cuts impact students; they include cuts to programming, staffing and services.
$100 million? That’s all you got? Out of a $5.4 billion budget?
Gregg Allman has cancelled all tour dates starting with his appearance at Scranton, PA’s Peach Music Festival on August 12 and going through the Clearwater, FL Jazz Festival on October 16 due to serious health issues. He’s currently under his doctor’s care at the Mayo Clinic.
“I want to thank my fans and friends for supporting me while I rest up and focus on getting better and back on the road as soon as I can.
I’ve been working hard with my band, my pride and joy, to play our music for everyone. We’ll see y’all in October.” - Gregg
Feel better, Gregg!
* Allman’s illness created a hole in the Illinois State Fair’s lineup…
Gregg Allman, who was slated to perform on Sunday, August 21, as a co-headlining act with ZZ Top, has cancelled his upcoming appearance at the Illinois State Fair citing serious health issues that require doctor’s care.
To enhance this final night concert, fair officials have announced the group Three Doors Down will perform on the Grandstand with ZZ Top on Sunday, August 21. The band has sold over 20 million albums worldwide and has shared the stage with artists such as Daughtry, Megadeth, Nickleback, Lynyrd Skynyrd, and ZZ Top.
Current ticket holders do not need to do anything extra in order to attend this concert. All tickets purchased and issued remain valid.
I think that’s the first time I’ve ever seen “Megadeth” and “Nickleback” in the same sentence.
* Meanwhile, Gov. Rauner’s chief of staff sent this memo yesterday…
Sent: Tuesday, August 09, 2016 1:05 PM
To: Goldberg, Richard
Subject: Twilight Parade
Good Morning Directors:
I hope you all are looking forward to the State Fair as much as we are in the Governor’s Office. It’s tradition each year to extend an invitation to the agencies, through the directors, for state staff to join the Governor in the Twilight Parade. Governor Rauner would be honored with their presence this Thursday evening, August 11th.
The Governor walks at the front of the parade, right behind the Grand Marshal. We do want to note: walking in the parade is completely voluntary, and employees should not use compensated time to walk in the parade. For logistical purposes, I ask that you send a final list of staff in your agency who would like to walk with the Governor in the Twilight Parade to Denise Albert by close of business Wednesday, August 10th. We welcome any and all employees to join, but unfortunately won’t be able to accommodate any participants who are not on the list.
We ask that you and your staff meet at the intersection of 9th Street and North Grand Avenue no later than 5:00 p.m. on Thursday, August 11th. Please check in with a member of the Governor’s Office staff (wearing a blue or red shirt with the state seal and “Office of the Governor” on it). You will then be checked off the list of attendees and escorted to the parade staging area. The parade begins promptly at 5:30 p.m. – anyone not checked in at that time will not be allowed to accompany the Governor’s team, so please check in as early as possible.
The lawmakers tasked with fixing how Illinois distributes funds to its public schools want to keep a laser-like focus, but that means a lot of other school funding issues are being left to linger for now.
Illinois’ school funding task force, which met for the first time last week, is only looking at how the state pays for schools — not how much it needs.
The commission will not consider other school funding issues such as property tax relief, pension costs and collective bargaining reforms, although those are important issues that the state will have to address, according to state Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Litchfield).
“We have working groups in the state, right now, that are working on (other) reforms and issues,” Bourne said. “This one is centrally focused on the school funding formula.”
They could easily get bogged down in Turnaround Agenda demands, or teachers’ union demands or school management demands or whatever. Best to just stay focused on the formula, which is complicated enough as it is.
Monday was the deadliest day in Chicago in 13 years, and 10-year-old Tavon Tanner got caught in the worst of the gun violence as he played with his twin sister on the porch of his Lawndale home. […]
Tavon was among 19 people shot Monday in Chicago. Nine of them were killed, marking the most homicides in a single day in the city since July 5, 2003, when 10 homicides were recorded, according to a Tribune analysis of police data.
The toll included Loreal Lucas, 61, killed on the porch of his South Side home in front of his 3-year-old great-nephew; a 24-year-old man killed as he drove a Lexus on the Southwest Side; a 44-year-old man shot dead as he stood with two friends on the South Side.
More than 2,500 people have been shot in the city so far this year, a pace of gun violence not seen here since the late 1990s. There have been at least 426 homicides.
In a final brief presented to the Illinois Supreme Court, attorneys for Independent Maps argued a lower court’s ruling against the constitutionality of the redistricting reform amendment is contrary to both the intent of the drafters of the 1970 Illinois Constitution and the plain language of the constitution’s provision allowing voters to propose amendments.
If the Cook County Circuit Court ruling is not reversed, it “would eviscerate the constitutional right conferred on the people of Illinois by the 1970 Constitution to bypass self-interested legislators and directly propose needed reforms,” according to the brief filed Tuesday.
“If you read the debates of the constitutional convention, it is clear that the drafters created an amendment initiative process to allow Illinoisans to propose changes in critical areas where legislators have too much self-interest and would resist change,” said Dennis FitzSimons, Chair of Independent Maps. “Legislators currently can draw district boundaries to help their own chances of winning the next election, making redistricting a prime example of legislative self-interest where citizens need to step in and propose reform. It is up to the Illinois Supreme Court to restore the democratic rights of Illinoisans and let voters decide whether to amend their state constitution.”
The brief argues that the lawsuit filed against the Independent Map Amendment ignores the constitutional convention debates and so narrowly interprets what the constitution allows to be amended by citizen initiative that “it would be impossible for anyone to put a meaningful proposal for redistricting reform on the ballot.”
Similar to reforms enacted by voters in California and Arizona, the Independent Map Amendment would create an independent commission to draw legislative district boundaries without regard to incumbency or partisanship. It would protect the voting rights of racial and ethnic minorities and allow the public to view and participate in redistricting.
The opposition argued in court that the amendment must be “limited to” structural and procedural subjects, and the Independent Maps briefs argues it meets that test. Redistricting is a structural and procedural subject of the constitution’s legislative article, and everything in the proposed amendment relates directly to – and only to – redistricting, according to the brief.
“The defenders of the status quo are trying to sell an argument that our amendment is unconstitutional because, for example, it involves the Auditor General and Supreme Court in the once-a-decade administration of the redistricting process,” FitzSimons said. “But the amendment does not affect the auditing duties of the Auditor General and only creates a new role limited to redistricting, and the Supreme Court would only be involved when there is a deadlock, as is the case now.
“To remove partisan politics from the redistricting process, the commission selection process must be insulated from partisan politics,” FitzSimons said. “If that’s not permitted, it will be impossible to give voters the right to the citizen initiative process envisioned by the framers of the constitution.”
More than 563,000 Illinois voters signed petitions to put the Independent Map Amendment on the November ballot, and a diverse coalition of two dozen businesses, consumer and public interest organizations has urged the Supreme Court “to allow democracy to prevail and to let the people have their vote” on the Independent Map Amendment.
