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*** LIVE COVERAGE *** The Illinois angle to the national political meltdown

Saturday, Oct 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* There have been numerous breaking news developments since Friday afternoon and there’s undoubtedly more to come as I write this on Saturday afternoon.

Congressman Rodney Davis, for instance, has withdrawn his endorsement of Donald Trump and joined US Sen. Mark Kirk’s call for Trump to drop out of the race. Congressman Bob Dold has also said Trump should step aside. Gov. Rauner has, yet again, refused to talk about his party’s nominee.

So, here’s a ScribbleLive feed to help keep you up to date on the Illinois angle to all the national craziness


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Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’m gonna take advantage of Monday’s state holiday to decompress and get away from this stuff for a while. I’ll talk at you on Tuesday. Goose Creek Symphony will play us out

And don’t go buyin’ no one’s answers,
If your question was for free

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Ken Griffin gives $2 million to Durkin

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember the other day when we talked about how Gov. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois campaign fund broke the contribution caps for House Republican Leader Jim Durkin by spending over $100,000 on a radio ad for Durkin even though he has no Democratic opponent?

Well, that act has now opened the floodgates…


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Barclay leaving governor’s office

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AFSCME’s “favorite” Rauner administration attorney is departing, but be careful what you wish for. His replacement is currently in charge of union negotiations…

General Counsel Jason Barclay will leave the Administration at the end of October for a new position. As part of the Governor’s succession planning, Dennis Murashko will be named General Counsel to the Governor. He is currently serving as the Governor’s Deputy General Counsel and is responsible for a wide portfolio of issues, including pension reform, litigation matters, and union negotiations.

Prior to assuming his role in the Administration, Dennis was an appellate attorney with the law firm of Jones Day. He began his legal career as a law clerk to Judge Stephen F. Williams on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and Judge Timothy M. Tymkovich on the Tenth Circuit. Before law school, Dennis worked as an actuarial consultant and helped companies analyze and evaluate their pension obligations.

Dennis earned his bachelor’s degree summa cum laude from Maryville University of St. Louis and his law degree magna cum laude from Northwestern University School of Law. He lives in Schaumburg with his wife and four children.

No comments on this one because it’s just about quitting time.

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Intelligence officials aren’t ready to blame Russian government for state election board hacks

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release

Joint Statement from the Department of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security

The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia’s senior-most officials could have authorized these activities.

Some states have also recently seen scanning and probing of their election-related systems, which in most cases originated from servers operated by a Russian company. However, we are not now in a position to attribute this activity to the Russian Government. The USIC and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) assess that it would be extremely difficult for someone, including a nation-state actor, to alter actual ballot counts or election results by cyber attack or intrusion. This assessment is based on the decentralized nature of our election system in this country and the number of protections state and local election officials have in place. States ensure that voting machines are not connected to the Internet, and there are numerous checks and balances as well as extensive oversight at multiple levels built into our election process.

Nevertheless, DHS continues to urge state and local election officials to be vigilant and seek cybersecurity assistance from DHS. A number of states have already done so. DHS is providing several services to state and local election officials to assist in their cybersecurity. These services include cyber “hygiene” scans of Internet-facing systems, risk and vulnerability assessments, information sharing about cyber incidents, and best practices for securing voter registration databases and addressing potential cyber threats. DHS has convened an Election Infrastructure Cybersecurity Working Group with experts across all levels of government to raise awareness of cybersecurity risks potentially affecting election infrastructure and the elections process. Secretary Johnson and DHS officials are working directly with the National Association of Secretaries of State to offer assistance, share information, and provide additional resources to state and local officials.

  10 Comments      


IDHS claims proposal “pretty close to perfect” after feds complain

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As we’ve discussed before, the Illinois Department of Human Services wants to cap the hours care-givers are paid to provide in-home assistance to cut down on overtime costs

The department implemented the policy in May in response to a U.S. Department of Labor ruling that said home care workers must earn time-and-a-half overtime pay if they work more than 40 hours per week. But the Rauner administration put the policy on hold in August just as a union representing 25,000 home care workers was readying to file a class-action lawsuit challenging it.

The administration is now seeking to implement the policy through the General Assembly’s bipartisan House and Senate committee in charge of approving such rules. The Thursday hearing in Springfield followed one held Monday in Chicago.

The department’s proposed rules would require clients in the home services program to hire enough personal assistants to cover the hours of care they need each week without requiring overtime. Any personal assistant who works more than 40 hours in a week would be required to submit written justification to the department for approval, and anyone who works unapproved overtime three times would be barred from being paid through the program. […]

The federal Labor Department sent a letter to the state noting its “significant concerns” with the proposal. Among those concerns, according to the letter, is the lack of a “robust exceptions policy,” which could result in workers providing off-the-clock care in violation of federal law.

“Without an appropriate exceptions policy, it is likely that either employees who care for vulnerable individuals will feel that they have no choice but to work uncompensated hours … or consumers will be left without adequate assistance,” the letter states. “Neither outcome is acceptable or necessary.”

Vivian Anderson, who oversees the program for DHS, is quoted in the article as saying the agency’s proposal is “pretty close to perfect.” This is the same person who SEIU claims fell asleep during a recent hearing on the issue. But, if it’s so perfect, there was probably no need to pay attention.

…Adding… The union has deleted the tweet.

  13 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - AG Madigan responds *** Illinois Policy Institute loses big round on election day registration

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The US appellate court in Chicago has basically just decided to keep in-precinct election day voter registration alive during this election cycle. The court put off briefing until November 10th, which is after election day, so its stay of a lower court’s ruling that halted the practice will remain in place. From the court

ORDER re: 1. Plaintiffs-appellees’ statement on consolidating and expediting cases. 2. Defendants-appellants’ statement opposing an expedited appeal. 3. Cook County clerk David Orr’s statement supporting consolidating appeals and opposing expedited briefing. The requests to consolidate are GRANTED, and these cases are CONSOLIDATED for purposes of briefing and disposition. The request to expedite is DENIED. The briefing schedule is as follows: The appellants shall file their openings briefs and required short appendices on or before November 10, 2016. The appellees shall file their consolidated brief on or before December 12, 2016. The appellants shall file their consolidated reply briefs, if any, or or before December 27, 2016. Counsel for appellants are encouraged to avoid unnecessary duplication by filing a joint brief or a joint appendix or by adopting parts of a co-appellant’s brief. EAH [15] [6788829] [16-3547, 16-3597] (CR)

Background is here and here. The full order is here.

*** UPDATE ***  Press release…

Attorney General Lisa Madigan today alerted Illinois voters that a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit restores Illinois voters’ legal right to register to vote and cast their ballot at the same time in the general election on Nov. 8. 
 
The Court’s ruling puts on hold an earlier federal district court ruling finding that the law allowing Election Day voter registration was unconstitutional and blocking the widely used practice. As a result of the Court of Appeals decision, election day voter registration can resume. Election day voter registration went into effect in Illinois in early 2015.
 
“Election day registration allows all voters the opportunity to participate in our elections,” Madigan said.
 
As a result of the Court’s ruling, the election day registration law will be restored. Under the law, counties with a population of 100,000 or more must provide voters with the option of registering to vote and casting their ballots at the same time at polling places on election day. Counties with a population of 100,000 or less and that keep voter records electronically must also provide voters with the option of registering to vote and casting their ballots at the same time at polling places on election day. Smaller counties that do not maintain voter records electronically must offer election day registration at the county’s main election office or at polling places in the county’s larger municipalities.
 
Attorney General Madigan also reminded voters that if they are registering to vote on election day, they should be prepared to show two forms of identification. The most common forms of identification include a driver’s license or a utility bill, at least one of which must show your current address. If your voter registration is active and current, you do not need to show identification to cast your vote.

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“Don’t let the Democrats steal this election”

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a reader…

Looks like the ILGOP is making hay statewide with the Kankakee voter fraud issue (I’m a Springfield resident). The following message was left on my phone at about 4pm Thursday.

    Hello, this is Illinois Republican Party chairman Tim Schneider calling Republicans with an important voter alert (Siren sound plays).

    We’re beginning to see news reports of the Chicago Democratic machine offering money for votes in places like Kankakee County. Let me be clear: Vote buying is illegal. It’s a felony, and we’re going to make sure that anyone who is caught gets prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. But we need your help. If you see something, say something. If you see offers of money for votes, please call our voter fraud hotline at 1-844-4-IL-FRAUD.

    Don’t let the Democrats steal this election, get out and vote now and help stop voter fraud (Siren sound plays again).

    Paid for by the Illinois Republican Party, 312-201-9000.

* I asked him for the audio and he sent it over

Man, that’s a loud siren.

  29 Comments      


Poshard says he’s visiting 48 counties before election day

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* That’s a lot of chicken dinners

Glenn Poshard, a former state senator, U.S. congressman and gubernatorial candidate, was the keynote speaker at the Fayette County Democratic Central Committee chicken dinner on Saturday night at the American Legion Home in Vandalia. Poshard has been asked by the Democratic County Chairmen’s Association to help with its “Get Out the Vote” drive, visiting 48 counties in Illinois.

Poshard said his message during those stops is “what it means to be a Democrat, the values that we always stood for.”

* His basic message

Former Illinois gubernatorial candidate Glenn Poshard called on Democrats at their annual Country Jamboree to not stay silent in the face of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s “buffoonery.”

“Donald Trump is the epitome of the philosophy of their party,” Mr. Poshard said. “What a shameful act that is, in this democracy, to stand up and tell the American people, ‘I’m smart for avoiding taxes when I am bragging about being a billionaire.’”

Mr. Poshard was the guest speaker at the Rock Island County Democrats Annual Country Jamboree Thursday evening at the American Legion, 829 16th Ave.. […]

Mr. Poshard told attendees that it was important for them to remember the party’s five core values: balance the budget; equal educational opportunities for all; stand up for unions; equal justice before the law; and protect the most vulnerable among us.

Thoughts?

  22 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Instead of a question, this is a Major League Baseball post-season open thread.

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Chicago charter school network could face first-ever teachers strike

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Teachers from the UNO Charter School Network, one of Chicago’s largest charter school systems, voted overwhelmingly Thursday in favor of a strike if workers and management don’t reach an agreement before Oct. 19.

The vote was nearly unanimous, with 531 of 532 members of UNO’s unionized workforce voting, and 96 percent of those ballots cast in favor of striking if workers can’t come to a fair agreement with management by Oct. 19, the day set for a walkout by UEU, the United Educators of UNO, according to spokeswoman Erica Stewart, a fifth-grade teacher at the Sandra Cisneros UCSN campus in Brighton Park and a member of the bargaining team.

The strike would be the first in U.S. history of a charter school or charter network. […]

The union is looking for a slightly longer summer than the current five weeks off. It wants six weeks and two days.

It also is asking management to cap class sizes at 32 students.

* WBEZ

A representative for the UNO Charter School Network could not immediately be reached for comment. But Richard Rodriguez, the CEO of UCSN, has been posting weekly updates in English and Spanish for parents and the public.

“It is UCSN’s position that there is no need for a strike, as teachers received their salary raises for this current school year in August 2016, and UCSN continues to negotiate in good faith on these and any/all pending matters,” Rodriguez wrote in the two most recent letters.

The vote this week does not mean a strike at UNO schools will definitely happen. If it does, it won’t happen at the same time as the Chicago Teachers Union, which is threatening to go on strike Oct. 11. UNO schools already have a fall break scheduled next week.

* Related…

* The Disproportionate Stress Plaguing American Teachers

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Adventures in early voting

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Lynn Sweet on President Obama’s Chicago fundraising events

The afternoon event will be at the Stony Island Arts Bank, an arts and cultural center founded by Gates, at 6760 S. Stony Island Ave, Chicago.

The price tiers start at $1,000 for an individual donation to $12,700 in a pledged contribution or a promise to raise that much from other people. Top givers and raisers get a VIP reception and a photo.

The proceeds go to the Illinois Coordinated Victory Fund 2016, a joint fundraising committee with the Democratic Party of Illinois and Tammy for Illinois.

* Speaking of DPI, the state party has started its vote by mail program this week with a letter from Secretary of State Jesse White, a form and a postage-paid return envelope…

* Except the form is far too wide to fit in the envelope, because the envelope has glue strips inside that make it much smaller than it appears from the outside. The internal glue strips are highlighted for you here along with the form…

* So, the potential voter could very well wind up tossing the whole thing in the trash rather than deal with jamming the form into the too-small envelope. Or, since they’ve already filled out the form by then, maybe they’ll just fold it again themselves, which makes the return envelope a lot thicker…

And if the resulting hand-folding winds up being more than a quarter of an inch thick, the Postal Service charges a higher price, and may not even process it.

Oops.

* Yeah, it’s a little thing, but little things can matter a lot and the Democrats’ coordinated campaign has had real problems with this sort of stuff in the past.

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I may have been too hasty

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I was pretty hard this week on the LOL Illinois front group created by Ty Fahner and his big business organization.

But then I spent some time looking through the group’s site and found this

The financial state of our State is grim. Instead of a responsible and comprehensive budget, we have received a stop-gap spending plan that’s not nearly enough to make it through this year, let alone address the key needs of our State. The Land of Lincoln and its citizens are suffering.

It doesn’t matter if you’re downstate or in Chicago, a student or a social service worker; we all have something in common: Not having a budget is not a laughing matter. Springfield has stopped listening to Illinois citizens. We must make enough noise that they won’t have a choice but to hear us.

Notice anything missing from that highlighted (by me) list? Business owners. Notice anything else missing? Turnaround Agenda items.

* And check out their form letter to legislators and the governor

Our state is facing a financial crisis like never before and we, the people of Illinois, deserve better!

Because of your inaction, 14,000 teens are without access to afterschool programs, 25,000 seniors are at risk of losing services, 15,000 fewer women will have access to breast and cervical cancer screenings, 1,000 at-risk families are in jeopardy of losing child development services, and 136,000 college students are unsure whether they can afford to stay in school, not to mention the thousands of jobs and businesses at risk of being lost or worse, leaving the state.

Illinois has been the laughingstock of the nation for a while now. But these numbers are no joke. This is not a laughing matter.

We need to put the Land of Lincoln back on sound financial footing.

OK, they do talk about the business climate a tiny bit, but it’s almost an afterthought.

* They then allow people to choose an occupation or position in a pull-down menu

A choice of being a union member, but not of a business person? Interesting.

* Just for snicks, I chose “community leader” and this message was automatically provided….

What impacts one group in our community ends up impacting all of us. Without social services who is going to guide the at-risk teenager? Who is going to care for the veteran with PTSD? Who is going to assist with elderly parents with Alzheimer’s? When any one of these groups is ignored, there are ripples of uncertainty and instability throughout our community. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a student just starting out, or a retiree expecting to live out their life with a pension, we expect our legislators to ensure that the pieces are in place for our communities to be safe and secure. If one’s not laughing, no one is laughing.

* And check out their Twitter page. They have tweets about child homelessness increasing, cuts to higher education, MAP grants, the Elgin Latino Treatment Center cutting employees and services, and one tweet about manufacturing job losses. Heck, they even retweeted Emily Miller from Voices for Illinois Children.

Sorry, Ty.

  38 Comments      


Today’s quotable

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* John Pletz at Crain’s

J.B. Pritzker had more bounce in his step than usual at the Chicagoland Entrepreneurial Center’s annual Momentum Awards dinner tonight.

And why not? He was fresh off a rare two-fer, in which two of his venture investments were sold, including Viv, Dag Kittlaus’ follow-up to Siri, and sports-TV graphics provider SportVision. Viv, which Pritzker Group Venture Capital backed last year, was a relatively quick score. Sportvision was one of Pritzker’s earliest venture deals from his first fund, raised in 2000. Terms weren’t disclosed for either deal, but Pritzker didn’t look disappointed.

* Pritzker, who recently gave Mrs. Rauner’s Ounce of Prevention fund $5 million, also cracked a joke about Gov. Rauner…


  21 Comments      


The budget problem gets worse by the day

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Issues has a good explainer article about the state’s severe budget problems. You should read the whole thing, but here’s an excerpt

Given the state’s level of debt, Illinois’ fiscal house was clearly already aflame before the impasse. But when it comes to what elected officials will ultimately have to ask of taxpayers, not having a budget for a year and a half will be like throwing gas on that fire.

“We are spending so much more money than we have available that we’re going to make the solution that much harder. We’re digging the hole that much deeper,” [Laurence Msall, who is president of the fiscal watchdog group the Civic Federation] says.

He says that taxpayers will end up forking over more and getting less in terms of services for it. And the longer there’s no solution, the bigger the tax increases and cuts will need to be to fix it.

“Unless we’re going to get rid of higher education in large parts at the state, close major universities or stop providing health insurance to new (public) employees, there’s not going to be enough cutting that can be done to balance the state’s budget,” he says.

  91 Comments      


Winning lottery ticket bought with drug money seized

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Decatur Herald & Review

A woman who lived with a Decatur drug dealer ended up losing big time when she took a judicial gamble on winning back the proceeds of a $50,000 lottery ticket.

The state of Illinois had initially seized the money as the ill-gotten gains of a ticket bought with drug money. But then a Macon County judge later ruled against the state and awarded the lottery cash to the woman, Tykisha Lofton.

Now, in a decision filed Sept. 27, the three-judge Fourth District Appeals Court ruled unanimously to reverse that decision and said the lottery winnings deserve to be kept by the state, where they will be shared among local and state law enforcement agencies.

The appeals court said the state was right in its initial suspicion the ticket had mostly likely been bought with the proceeds of drug sales, and that meant Lofton, who said she had lived with the drug dealer for many years, was out of luck. […]

But the Macon County judge had not bought her story and ruled that Norwood had purchased the ticket “more likely than not with drug money.” However, the judge said extending state forfeiture laws to grab the proceeds from a lottery ticket was going too far.

The judge used examples such as establishing a dry cleaning business with drug money or a drug dealer paying to put himself through medical school and then going to work as a doctor. “Is that money (a doctor’s salary or the profits of a legitimate business) then forfeitable?” wrote the judge. “At some point the connection has to stop.” He then ruled in Lofton’s favor.

  11 Comments      


Sweet Cub tickets come with a harsh pricetag

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

The head of the city ethics agency has warned Chicago aldermen and other elected officials that if they accept the Cubs’ offer to buy coveted playoff tickets at face value, they must attend personally and have their presence announced publicly.

The warning came in an advisory memo this week from Steven Berlin, executive director of the Chicago Board of Ethics, as news stories revealed about 70 percent of the city’s 50 aldermen, 85 percent of Chicago state and federal officials, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Gov. Bruce Rauner had taken advantage.

As a result, some aldermen who were planning to give the tickets away have contacted the team to say they won’t be purchasing them, said team spokesman Julian Green, without providing specifics. In addition, the Cubs will display the names of public officials who did accept the offer on a digital board at the park, he said.

Green said the team had asked the ethics board for an opinion on offering the tickets to public officials, as it has for more than a decade, before extending the offer.

* The Sun-Times has more detail

Berlin replied that the ticket “offer itself is not prohibited,” but comes with a “critical caveat”: Elected officials and city employees accepting the offer must attend the game “in his or her official capacity — not as a private Cub fan.”

“It could be construed as a prohibited gift to the city official if they are not announced or if they give away or resell all tickets they purchased at this special price,” Berlin wrote.

“Every city official who purchases tickets [must] be advised at the time of purchase that the Cubs will announce their presence on the Jumbotron or via the PA system at some point during the game.”

Berlin further wrote that the Board of Ethics “will consider any actions inconsistent with this advice as potential violations of the ordinance, which could result in an investigation and public finding of a violation — most definitely a result to be avoided.”

Berlin noted that he had already engaged in “extensive conversations” with Mike Lufrano, vice-president of community relations with the Cubs. But, after reading the Sun-Times story, “It was “not clear that the Cubs had followed our advice given on Sept. 30.”

I don’t really blame the politicos for taking up the team’s offer. Hey, it’s playoff baseball. And it’s not without precedent.

But these tickets are so difficult to come by unless you’re already a season ticket holder that I assume public outrage will surely result. Crime is rising, as are taxes (a buddy of mine says his city water/sewer bill alone is rising by $1600 a year) and the teachers are threatening a strike. Plus, this national campaign has everyone going a little insane.

In the past, the electeds would just ignore the public outcry, figuring it would pass. And it always did. We’ll see what happens this time.

  28 Comments      


Today’s must-read

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Crain’s

When the Emanuel administration reached a $2 million settlement in May in a whistleblower case brought by two Chicago police officers, the deal was widely seen as a way for the mayor to avoid the embarrassment of testifying about the Police Department’s code of silence, Jamie Kalven writes for the Intercept, an investigative journalism website.

What the administration really avoided was a public airing of evidence that, in the words of a federal judge, “purports to show extraordinarily serious retaliatory misconduct by officers at nearly all levels of the CPD hierarchy.”

Kalven tells the story of one of those officers, Shannon Spalding, in a four-part, 20,000-word series. The individual defendants in the case denied the allegations of Spalding and Daniel Echeverria. As part of the settlement, the city also did not admit any wrongdoing.

Spend some time today or over the weekend and read this story.

  13 Comments      


Trump takes a swipe at Kirk

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Hill

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump swiped at vulnerable GOP Sen. Mark Kirk (Ill.) on Thursday night, saying it’s Kirk’s fault that he’s facing a loss in his reelection fight since he didn’t get on board with the nominee.

Speaking at a town hall event in Sandown, N.H., Trump was asked about the Republican hold-outs who have refused to support him; earlier that day, 30 former GOP lawmakers announced their steadfast opposition to his candidacy. […]

“I guess there’s a gentleman in Illinois who’s not doing very well,” Trump said, referencing Kirk. “He was actually taking out ads against me. I said, are you sure he’s a Republican? Maybe he’s a Democrat. He’s not doing well but hey, that’s his problem. He wasn’t for me and that’s for political reasons.” […]

Still, Trump predicted Republicans would maintain their slim majority in the Senate, and took credit for a coattails effect he claimed would ensure the GOP maintains power in the upper chamber.

“If you look at what’s going on — the other day I saw very interesting — the announcer said Donald Trump is having a very positive effect on the Republicans,” Trump said. “The Republicans are going to hold. They’re doing terrifically well, far better than anyone thought, and we’re going to win some states that never in a million years people thought we’d do well.”

Yeah, well, his coattails aren’t so great in Illinois as a whole.

* Sen. Kirk’s campaign has released a new poll and specifically mentions in the memo how much Kirk is outperforming Trump

GS Strategy Group surveyed 600 likely voters, statewide, in Illinois. The survey was conducted October 4-5, 2016. The margin of error for the survey was +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level.

United States Senate Ballot

Our findings indicate a much tighter battle in the race for United States Senate than the most recently released numbers from our opponent. As has been the case for over a year, the race remains a statistical tie and inside the margin of error. While Congresswoman Duckworth maintains a lead over Senator Kirk, he is well within striking distance of her. Duckworth’s inability to capitalize on the Democratic strength in the Presidential ballot underscores voter apprehension toward her candidacy and provides a path to victory for Senator Kirk.

Key Highlights

    * Race remains a statistical tie – consistent with nearly every other public poll.
    * Kirk is outperforming Trump by a net of 13 points.
    * Duckworth continues to significantly underperform the top of the ticket.

According to the poll, Hillary Clinton is winning Illinois 50-33, while Kirk is trailing 41-37.

* Normally, candidates wouldn’t release a poll showing them trailing in October by four points. But with the new Paul Simon Institute poll showing Duckworth ahead by 14 points, the Kirk campaign needs to stop people from assuming this thing is a complete lost cause.

Also, according to the Kirk campaign, the NRSC is running TV ads in the Chicago, Rockford, Springfield and Peoria media markets. They claim those ads show the national folks haven’t given up hope.

  22 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Friday, Oct 7, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Pritzker, Durbin talk about Trump, Vance
* Napo's campaign spending questioned
* Illinois react: Trump’s VP pick J.D. Vance
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