Plausible deniability
Friday, Nov 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I was initially skeptical of some of this “conspiracy theory” story…
Story No. 1 concerns the big super PAC that state Sen. Dan Biss put together, the one no one had heard of until a couple of weeks ago, when it suddenly started spending big money—now $10 million or so—on ads tying Gov. Rauner to the GOP presidential nominee, who may be popular in some places but not in most of Illinois.
Biss says he was just engaging in “an act of citizenship. . . .I wanted to be involved” in educating voters in an uncommonly important election.
But the fact is, the ads will mostly help not candidates for the chamber in which Biss serves but the far more numerous contests for the House, where Madigan’s long reign as speaker is being challenged.
So, is there something more afoot? Perhaps a good old fashioned deal in which Biss last year abruptly dropped out of the race for Illinois comptroller, clearing the field for Madigan-backed Susana Mendoza, and in exchange got certain, um, future considerations. Like maybe Madigan’s backing for his new super PAC, which might help Biss establish his name and run for governor in 2018.
Biss denies that. “There was no deal,” he says. Madigan might like what the super PAC is doing, but that’s it.
However, Biss concedes he spoke with Madigan before dropping out of the comptroller race. And the biggest donor to Biss’ TV campaign—Chicago financier Michael Sacks, who has given at least $2.5 million—says little about political chatter that Madigan encouraged him to write the big check. He only says, in an email: “Democratic values have been under attack for two years. We all have a responsibility to defend our values.”
For the record, Biss says he “very much doubt(s)” he will run for governor and is “not thinking about it.” Madigan spokesman Steve Brown says he doesn’t offhand know whether and when his boss and Biss spoke, and put it all down to Rauner troublemakers.
I kinda doubt that Madigan would want Biss to run for governor. Not exactly his kind of guy. And talking to the powerful state party chairman before dropping out or starting a new super PAC is standard procedure here. A professional courtesy, if you will.
Either way, I was most skeptical of the Sacks stuff. Madigan always wants money for his own campaigns, which is why people haven’t trusted him in the past to fairly run coordinated state campaigns. “We’ve got a million federal bucks for statewide voter registration? Let’s send it to Kankakee.”
OK, that was an exaggeration, but not by much.
* In checking around, however, I think Madigan probably wanted the Biss PAC to move forward and succeed. It was likely his way of striking back (without direct fingerprints) at Rauner for all those anti-Madigan ads the governor has funded. And he appears to have as much cash as he needs for his legislative races, although Sacks has been weighing in on those lately, too.
- Jake From Elwood - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:06 am:
Is Sen. Biss paving the way to be considered as the heir apparent for Sen. Cullerton?
He certainly has leadership capabilities and a strong grasp on financial and pension issues.
- wordslinger - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:10 am:
Meh, Biss is the front man. Could have been anyone.
There didn’t need to be a “deal” for Sacks, Eychaner and Pritzker to form a pac; it’s their money, they’re calling the shots.
I have no doubt that Madigan is for the pac’s anti-Rauner effort.
But I bet he’d rather have had that $10 million for committees he controls. And it’s clear the money-men chose not to give it to him, and to spend it on their message, not his.
- Mal - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:11 am:
I still see a possible Biss run for governor despite this article.
- ChicagoVinny - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:14 am:
Even if they are working together, can someone explain how two democrats working to elect more democrats is some sort of scandal?
- Big Muddy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:17 am:
I hope Biss IS the Dem nominee for Governor in 2018. He has the charm and charisma of wet newspaper.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:21 am:
===And talking to the powerful state party chairman before dropping out or starting a new super PAC is standard procedure here. A professional courtesy, if you will.===
First and foremost… “This”
The political “courtesy” of going through the informational aspects is important in keeping either party, and either party’s hierarchy, within the constraints of knowing what is gapping inside the entire apparatus.
“I’m running go Congress”, “I’m running for Mayor”, “Tomirrow I’m going to come out and support Peter Politican for the General Assembly”, and even “I’m going to start raising money to go after… ” who or even WHATever.
Just because Bruce Rauner is the complete opposite of the 1994 GOP, where you had 7, (Edgar-Kustra, the 5 statewides, Pate and Lee), that does not mean the sheer aspect of the real tradition of following a growing and expanding party’s leaders doing “their own thing”.
That’s for starters.
Biss got outflanked, Mendoza muscled Biss out with Madigan.
There wasn’t a deal that makes sense where Madigan covers all the angles to outmaneuver Biss, then decide to make a deal with Biss. Why go through all the rigaramoe to them make a ridiculous deal when Biss gets to control nearly $10 million dollars? Ugh.
To Biss,
I have been incredibly impressed with the game plan, from soup to nuts. If anything, Biss’ own political acumen and understanding of the process from jump street to building, to framing the program and funding and implementing this media front… you can’t look at this as a package and NOT be impressed. Biss also allowed a safety valve and a frustration release with this program that has rallied the anti-Raunerism by reminding so many that Rauner supports Donald Trump, and in the end, it’s three billionaires willing to destroy Illinois for their own agendas, not illinois’ best future.
The Republican Party let a stranger in her house. Sometimes it takes a neighbor to help you get your house rid of the stranger.
Never, never is a party unified when $20 million has been used to stop $&@#% problems that three billionaires don’t want.
Biss will pick his next spot. In reality, Biss will have far more personal political leverage now then he ever would’ve had running for comptroller and Biss himself earned it. That’s how you make what seems to be a setback and make your triumph after far better and twice as sweet.
- Last Bull Moose - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:26 am:
Sounds like a convergence of interests to me.
The Senate is institutionally better able to block Rauner than the House. He will need people confirmed by them. The Democrats would benefit by having the Senate take center stage.
- Grand Avenue - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:28 am:
If Biss aspires to be President of the Senate, he’ll have to wait for Cullerton and Harmon to retire, because Don is the heir-apparent. Unless of course Rauner spending $250MM in 2017-18 on his race and General Assembly races gives the GOP a majority (which is not impossible if Hillary wins, because that will bring a lot of ticked off Republicans to the polls in 2018).
- Grand Avenue - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:31 am:
More on my last post, I wonder if, despite the Dan Biss ads to the contrary, Rauner is in his heart praying that Hillary wins because it would give a huge boost to Republican candidates in 2018 and bring him so much closer to a full takeover of State Government.
- @MisterJayEm - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:42 am:
“Madigan always wants money for his own campaigns, which is why people haven’t trusted him in the past to fairly run coordinated state campaigns.”
It remains true to this day, I was part of a discussion about this point just last night.
– MrJM
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:48 am:
–”Madigan always wants money for his own campaigns, which is why people haven’t trusted him in the past to fairly run coordinated state campaigns.”–
Always is right. Going back to when Rock, Sutker and Demuzio were chairman of the state party, and Madigan wouldn’t share his lists.
Durbin has called him out publicly on that in recent years.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:54 am:
Biss can no longer play the plausible deniability card. It only works until it is exposed. He has gone from rising star to hungry political player. Hope that works for him.
- Last Bull Moose - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:12 pm:
V-Man Nobody gets very far in politics unless they are hungry and willing to play politics. Lincoln, TR, FDR, LBJ were all hungry political players.
- A guy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:28 pm:
It’s the “Biss of Death” strategy. It’s just not working.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:51 pm:
===It’s the “Biss of Death” strategy. It’s just not working===
Then “Fire Madigan” and Munger’s blitz isn’t working either…
Can’t have both.
- A guy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:00 pm:
We’ll see Willy. I believe “Fire Madigan” is working. We’ll know next Tuesday. If I’m wrong I’ll take my lumps. If I’m right…
Munger’s blitz is helping. Like you (I think), I believe we’ll have to wait until Tuesday night to see if it “worked”. But, it’s definitely helping. How could it not?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:16 pm:
I dunno how you then can ignore $10 million in Biss ads connecting Bruce Rauner and Trump and Republicans in a Blue Presidential State.
If Biss isn’t working, then why doesn’t Rauner really undercut Biss and just say he’s for Trump?
- A guy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 4:22 pm:
Ask Rauner. On the Biss ad of note, It’s just not a good ad. Munger’s ads are good. That’s really the biggest difference. You need a calculator to keep up with Biss. People are tired. They’re not getting that one in a quick read. Leslie’s are spunky and upbeat.
Lot of money on both sides, better ads for Munger.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 4:29 pm:
===It’s just not a good ad.===
Good luck with that, lol.
Rauner speaking to supporting the nominee, Trump?
Pretty easy message.
- Molly Maguire - Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 4:33 pm:
I’d be up for a Biss run