There’s been a lot of spin from the Illinois House Democrats about how last Tuesday’s losses were not that big of a deal. Don’t believe it.
During the national Republican electoral wave two years ago, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn lost by four points to Republican Bruce Rauner and Quinn won no counties at all outside Cook. The Democrats lost the 10th and 12th Congressional District races and just barely managed to regain the state treasurer’s office. Through all that partisan turmoil, the House Democrats lost no seats and the Senate Democrats lost just one. The Democrats’ legislative district map, which produced a 7-seat net gain in the House two years earlier, was a great firewall.
This year, Democrat Hillary Clinton won Illinois by 16 points, taking ten counties outside Cook. The Democrats regained a US Senate seat (winning by 14 points), the comptroller’s office (by a four-point margin) and the 10th Congressional District seat (by 5 points).
Even so, state Democrats lost a net of four Illinois House seats.
Losing state legislative seats in a presidential year is rare. The House Democrats lost a net of one seat twelve years ago and five seats 24 years ago.
However, 1992 was the first election under a new Republican-drawn district map, so the Democrats were at a disadvantage. And it was a different era. Bill Clinton was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Illinois in 20 years, but he took it with less than 49 percent of the vote, compared to Mrs. Clinton’s 55 percent last week.
Yes, Donald Trump’s Downstate margins certainly played a key role on Tuesday. Counties don’t vote, but he won more Downstate counties than any Republican presidential candidate since 1984.
House Speaker Michael Madigan blamed Trump and Gov. Bruce Rauner’s money for his losses. He was right on both counts. But Rauner’s money was used to craft a powerful anti-Madigan message, and there is no doubt that the message contributed heavily to Madigan’s losses. It really isn’t rocket science. Madigan is, by far, the most unpopular politician in Illinois. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that tying Democratic candidates to him with tens of millions of dollars in disciplined messaging will work.
Clinton overwhelming won suburban Cook County 65-30, took Lake County 57-37 and romped in DuPage with a 53-39 score. But the Republicans lost no suburban incumbents this year. Why? Most likely it was because they tied all Democratic challengers as closely as they could and as often as they could to Madigan.
Ask anyone who walked a precinct this year and they’ll tell you that Madigan was a major issue at the doors, even in districts that weren’t in play.
Illinoisans don’t care much for Gov. Rauner, either, but Madigan didn’t make any sort of real effort to attach GOP candidates directly to the guy, choosing to stick mainly to his tired, old issues of accusing Republicans on the flimsiest of evidence of being soft on sexual predators and warning that Republicans wanted to take away Social Security benefits, even though that’s a federal, not a state issue.
The last time Madigan truly innovated was when the Republicans took the majority away from him in 1994. His operation is now out of date and out of touch.
The Democrats’ one Downstate bright spot this year was GOP Rep. Dwight Kay’s loss in the Metro East. But the pro-choice Personal PAC’s heavy involvement in that contest probably had as much to do with Kay’s loss as anything else. During a House floor debate, Kay essentially equated birth control with promiscuity. Not good.
Plenty of Democrats view this year’s contest as basically a wash because they figure they’ll pick up seats during President Trump’s first midterm race. That may happen, but if the Democrats couldn’t pick up suburban seats this year with Clinton’s big boost, 2018 won’t be easy, either. They’ll probably have to depend on Trump’s white working class base turning against him Downstate.
But the historical record shows that once a Downstate district moves from the Democrats to the Republicans it almost never goes back to being Democratic. The Democrats used to rule southern Illinois. They are now down to just one true, totally non-Metro East southern Illinois legislator: Rep. Brandon Phelps (D-Harrisburg). Rep. Phelps caught a break this year because his Republican opponent turned out to be seriously flawed.
The bottom line is Madigan has led his party into an endless war with a kabillionaire and it wound up costing him four seats in a year when his people should’ve been coasting.
* Western Illinois county reveals the Land of Lincoln’s electoral divide: In Henry County, the results underscore the diversity that makes the Land of Lincoln a place many consider an authentic microcosm of the U.S. This year’s unofficial vote totals in Henry County show almost 14,000 people cast ballots for Trump, while about 9,000 voted for Clinton. In the previous two presidential elections, Henry County chose Democrat Barack Obama. In 2004, the county went red for Republican George W. Bush.
* Tide turns in Illinois: Trump leads GOP charge in counties: On Trump’s coattails, Gov. Bruce Rauner and the GOP eroded a Democratic supermajority in the Illinois House. But with Clinton atop the ticket, fellow Democratic women won statewide offices for U.S. Senate and comptroller.
* Election did little to alter Illinois’ political landscape: Unsurprisingly, each party had its own interpretation of the election results.
- Politically Incorrect - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 8:58 am:
I am no insider, so I could just be unaware of the Speaker’s planning. From my perspective, he focuses on himself and his power. It appears that he has done nothing to help the Dem Party have a plan for a successor in the Speaker seat. The disappointment of this election may be continued in a future election when Madigan is no longer on the ballot. Perhaps the Dems need to take control of their own party.
- illinois manufacturer - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 8:58 am:
You are right the dems should have won seats in the northern illinois landslide to offset the downstate losses. Nationally there is a democratic housecleaning under way. Illinois should too.
- wordslinger - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:00 am:
Remove Madigan from the equation, and what of substance changes?
Democrats all of a sudden cave on collective bargaining, workers comp., prevailing wage, et. al.?
- A guy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:11 am:
The “Fire Madigan” message had an enormous impact because there was ample resources put behind it and it was consistent across all campaigns and all lines of communication. In a bleary season for messaging; that one got through loud and clear.
It now has tremendous equity and more resources to refine the message and push it outside of the commotion of Hillary and Donald.
Never thought I’d think or say this, but, we very well could be witnessing the “beginning to the end”, with the Speaker. There are serious cracks.
- Ares - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:12 am:
The GOP’s “devil incarnate #1″ lost the Presidential election last week. The GOP’s “devil incarnate #2″ leaves the White House on 1/20/17. Sooner or later, IL Repubs’ “devil incarnate #3″ will leave the House. What “devil” will they have then?
- SAP - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:15 am:
Has having Illinois’ favorite son in the White House for the last 8 years papered over some cracks in the Illinois Democratic party infrastructure?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:17 am:
===The “Fire Madigan” message had an enormous impact because there was ample resources put behind it and it was consistent across all campaigns and all lines of communication===
Meh.
Collar county Dems won. McAuliffe won, and Franks seat flipped because Franks wasn’t there to see what could happen.
If it had “enormous” impact, then the ILGOP wouldn’t have jump the gun and issued a press release touting a one seat win as “important”
The Trump numbers and flipping of Dowmstate Dems and those numbers might tell more.
The seats flipping, regionally as they were, didn’t point to “enormous” impact of “Fire Madigan” and the staving off in the collars the Dem House seats were buoyed by Clinton-Duckworth pluralities, not an acceptance of MJM either.
===Never thought I’d think or say this, but, we very well could be witnessing the “beginning to the end”, with the Speaker. There are serious cracks===
lol, and yet DuPage and the collars continue to send Dems to Springfield.
- Ares - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:22 am:
DuPage GOP leads are slipping. I would not be surprised if it turns purple. the Dems should take their fight for the hearts/minds of voters, into the GOP’s foyer.
- A guy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:22 am:
===lol, and yet DuPage and the collars continue to send Dems to Springfield.===
Keep laughing Yoda. They were his best chance. In DuPage, we have one Dem Rep. and one Dem Sen. One of those races was decided by a very slim margin. Madigan nearly cost Tom Cullerton his seat. He can’t afford another cycle like this one. The map won there.
You’re in denial my friend.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:24 am:
- A Guy -
Trump midterms…
Who is in denial now, lol
- AlfondoGonz - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:25 am:
I suspect the Democrat’s demise has been greatly exaggerated.
- A guy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:31 am:
==- A Guy -
Trump midterms…
Who is in denial now, lol===
You just witnessed a cycle that was turned on it’s head. Banking on mid-terms might be something that might make sense in other states. The Illinois fish swims upstream. The next cycle will show Illinois to be just as odd as usual in my opinion.
You’ve never witnessed a GOP led Executive, Senate and House. There’s a chance to create amazing momentum going into ‘16.
No understanding of history helps predict what Illinois will do these days. We’re surrounded by the entire country. We’re the only splotch of blue from NYC to CA. And that’s one region. In my opinion, that splotch is going to be one county big the next cycle. Um, like the last non-presidential year.
- phocion - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:34 am:
A bit early to tell what, if any impact Trump will have in two years. For legislative races, he had just about no impact whatsoever - as witnessed by the close races compared to the top of the ticket. This is all about hanging Madigan around the neck of every Democrat in the General Assembly. Will the Speaker become less toxic in two years? Way too early to tell what the actual outcome will be, but Rauner’s money and anti-Madigan message will be tough to beat.
- JS Mill - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:40 am:
=Remove Madigan from the equation, and what of substance changes?=
@Wordslinger- I think the substantive change would be the loss of a leader willing to stand up to Rauner at any cost. Clearly not all of the Democratic House Members love MJM or his approach or having MJM used as a pejorative against them. But I bet they love having him there to take the brunt from Rauner.
I would guess the house would be much less cohesive in it’s opposition to Rauner without MJM.
But who knows? Sooner or later we are going to find out though.
- ZC - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:40 am:
Part of this is relative. Madigan is the kingpin so losing a veto-proof majority is seen (reasonably) as a grave setback.
Still, looking at the map, it’s now 67-51 in the House. I think any other Democratic legislature in the Midwest would be down on their knees thanking the good Lord, for such margins.
yes parts of Downstate, the most rural areas, in a long drawn-out divorce from the Democratic party and I expect that to keep going. But was crunching the numbers more and the Republicans’ #1 headache I think is that Illinois is -way- more Latino / Hispanic than any of these other Midwestern states catching “Trump fever” - Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania. And the Latinos / Hispanics are branching out of Chicago now and following the American dream out into the suburbs, to Aurora, to Joliet, etc. And with Trump in the White House they will be getting more “D” every day. IL is also a bit more white college-educated, and while that’s still a Republican cohort, the gap is narrowing. They’re certainly not gung-ho Trumpistas.
So to hopefully be bold and counter-intuitive, and not just blind and partisan, I honestly think Rauner’s in trouble in 2018, if the Dems wise up and don’t run a Madigan clone against him.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:47 am:
===No understanding of history helps predict what Illinois will do these days.===
And yet… you think ILDens are in trouble?
Which is it, it’s impossible to predict or easy to see?
Do you even read your ridiculous rationale? lol
- Amalia - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:00 am:
Had no experience inside any of the involved campaigns, but disgusted from observing the accusations of supporting sex offenders or worse, using racist/ethnic dog whistles against Republican legislative candidates. this is a bad thing for the Dem party as it is past the politics of destruction, it is vile. stop it. and get rid of whomever is condoning, Madigan or any minions.
- Downstate Democrat - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:21 am:
I’m sorry the Clinton Campaign high command apparently laughed off Bill Clinton’s urgings to spend more time in Wisconsin, Michigan and other rust-belt states. Analytics work better when your turnout assumptions about the rust belt are closer to reality, and when you wage a campaign with a message for the heartland. What a disservice to Hillary Clinton who would have been a strong, effective president.
- A guy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:28 am:
==Do you even read your ridiculous rationale? lol==
I think my commentary turned out more prophetic than yours going back to Rauner getting elected and this cycle as well. But, you’re the smartest guy with the worst results. But you liked Artl, so that race didn’t get your acerbic scrutiny. You play it right down the middle, dontcha?
The Dems are in trouble, because things are so unpredictable. Predictable matters to the Speaker.
Don’t get snitty. I’m showing restraint.
- anonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:28 am:
Agree. Too much spin…from both sides.
Both the Dems and Rauner’s GOP didn’t understand the electorate’s pulse and both miscalculated big time. The secret Trump vote helped Rauner and not his massive anti-Madigan campaign. If the secret Trump voters had not turned out, Rauner’s effort would have been for not and the egg on his face would be very apparent to everyone right now. It is still there but some choose not to see it.
- anon - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:33 am:
=== uhm…like the last nonpresidential (election) year ===
It’s strange to cite 2014 to argue that the president’s party won’t take a beating in the midterm election like 2014.
- The Way I See It - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:33 am:
Not sure where the Democrats were supposed to make gains this cycle in the burbs. Rauner is going to have run on his record next cycle and there isn’t a record to run on. Hopefully the Dem will recruit a worthwhile candidate who is willing to stare down the millions of Rauner bucks. if Rauner goes down, will he have the interest in continuing to burn millions? Will Griffin continue to toss millions when he is not pals with the guy who is taking control? If Rauner goes down and those guys take their ball and go home, R’s are in deep weeds, as it seems that they have forgotten how to raise money and organize without a couple of folks writing seven and eight figure checks on a monthly basis.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:39 am:
(Sigh)
- A Guy -
http://bit.ly/2eXN6kL
===Rauner need to keep ALL the seats Rauner currently controls to lower the number to a voting “66″. Madigan gets one, maybe gets a second, instead of picking 3 Dems off, it now needs to be 4… maybe 5… Whoa.===
I think I got the 67 House seats…
A walk might help, - A Guy -, fresh air and all.
- Roman - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:46 am:
To the post:
== but Madigan didn’t make any sort of real effort to attach GOP candidates directly to (Rauner) ==
Biggest single mistake of this cycle.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 10:54 am:
How does the Illinois Democratic Party hold on to power in a world without AFSCME? The overturning of Abood is likely coming. This needs to be prepared for.
People are talking about the need for a full-time DNC chair in the wake of Dem losses nationally this cycle. How about a full-time Illinois Dem Party chair? What a concept.
Planning for Republican overreach and voter backlash to Trump is pointless. The electorate & media can easily be distracted by Donald Trump’s unpredictable antics and completely ignore the policies the GOP Congress puts in place behind him. Fight Republicans on the actions they take, not tweets or statements, which in this new Trump era will be ever contradictory and unconnected to facts.
- A guy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 11:01 am:
lol. Willy.
With all the blather you spread, I have no doubt that you could selectively find a quote with you saying almost anything…
It’s who you are man. Own it.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 11:02 am:
Boys, please try to keep this about the issue at hand and not each other.
Thanks.
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 11:20 am:
@ZC - The “Rural America” divorce with the Democratic Party goes both ways. Dems don’t even try to have a presence Downstate unless Madigan has a house seat to protect in that particular area. First step is showing up. Second is having something to offer the rural and exurban places.
BTW, if Republicans had bothered to run anyone credible against Sue Scherer would she have been safe this cycle?
- A guy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 11:48 am:
Fair enough. Apologies Mr. Miller. And Willy.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 11:51 am:
===if Republicans had bothered to run anyone credible against Sue Scherer would she have been safe this cycle?===
No way to tell for sure, but it could’ve been a heckuva race.
- walker - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 11:58 am:
Even though Trump did well nationally, and in a couple of parts of downstate that historically have supported Dems, this still was a Dem presidential cycle in the state overall.
The idea that Dems will somehow benefit locally from a midterm reaction in 2018, is probably a pipe dream. Rauner et al will likely pick a few more seats, as Dem turnout declines more that GOP. I still don’t see a GOP majority, but a lot of strange things can happen in two years.
- walker - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 12:06 pm:
One other perception, that might be pertinent, but also might be mistaken:
Madigan’s DPI seems to have been much more involved in supporting, staffing, and coordinating non-state-legislative campaigns around the state. Most cycles these other campaigns complain that Madigan is too focused on his own House; this year there were comments of pleasant surprise.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 12:08 pm:
My apologies. Apologies, all.
I did it, I was wrong, I’m sorry for continuing it.
- Foolish Sophist - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 1:01 pm:
Sorry…I don’t buy Rich’s argument that the Dems lost their southernmost seats because of Madigan. That’s a nationwide demographic shift. We can talk about the collar counties, but stop trying to give Rauner credit for victories he didn’t earn…
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 1:02 pm:
===I don’t buy Rich’s argument that the Dems lost their southernmost seats because of Madigan===
John Bradley wouldn’t have even had an opponent if not for Rauner.
- Madigan's Lapdog - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 1:46 pm:
Well from my view point, my master’s lap, he aint LOLing bout nothing. Never seen him this serious and you know, his face is pictured next to “serious” in Webster’s. I haven’t wagged since election night. No treats coming my way either. I know what my first vote will be in next GA. Still no smile will be forth coming. But hey, gotta keep the master in the chair. arf
- Altgelds Ghost - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
If the anti-Madigan message didn’t have effect as so many here try to spin, explain why Mendoza underperformed Clinton by 12 and no incumbent republicans lost in Lake or DuPage county.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 1:55 pm:
Altgelds Ghost must be a subscriber. lol
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:02 pm:
And did you notice in the Tribune article that there is a black Republican on the Henry County Board?
- Rabid - Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 6:11 am:
It’s hard for rural America to get behind the basket full of alphabet people that are the core of the democrats