20 Comments - @MisterJayEm - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 8:40 am: Pretty soon, we’ll be talking real money. – MrJM - A guy - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 8:41 am: …and they’re off… - No Longer A Lurker - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 8:49 am: The advertising guys are already licking their chops on the money to be made on next years election. - The Captain - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 8:51 am: I kind of thought Rauner would put in enough to lift the caps relatively soon just to try to get as much money into this Democratic primary as possible, now he doesn’t have to. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 8:59 am: To the Post, As much as I think Kennedy blowing the caps could/will change things very quickly in the Dem Primary, I look at it, like I said, towards Rauner, using such a large window now to park monies that Rauner need not worry about piling later. Then again, Rauner has the money parked elsewhere, it’s not like Rauner will be scraping. Won’t be scraping, but Rauner can now flex serious muscles at any time. With this Kennedy news? If I’m the Rauner Crew, I get the Rauner balance to $75 million for June 30, just park it. Plus, Rauner could get to $150 million easier with year to go… the thinking… Rauner can plan to spend $10 million on entire Primary season (Sep-Mar), taking on Dems, learning and testing negative messages on each candidate and “help” drive negatives for everyone against anyone, in short, disrupting the Dem’s primary, cause Rauner can, and now has a whole window to get that monies and message rolling. Caucuses? Rauner can “secure” that $20 million for the HGOP, and “secure” that $20 million SGOP, causing major worries that Mike Noonan himself described, and Noonan ain’t wrong. Then, Rauner can have that much needed $100 million “after” March 21st, 2018 until the end. What Kennedy did was ensure this whole next calendar year that Diana and Bruce Rauner can finish off a re-elect by starting early and often to get to a number between $100-150 million, with a $50 million head start. This only makes sense for a candidate like Kennedy, specifically, if Kennedy, with no political base or history or position of record, can get to $100 million, but first get to $20 million or so to get through March 21st… In Skyhook in Reverse, Admiral Torrey is face with two threats, first to secure the landing of forces, then to set to sea and face the next threat. That’s what Kennedy, Pritzker, Biss… any and all announced and unannounced candidates will face too. The first threat is the “landing” (winning the Dem primary, getting past the first phase of Rauner), the nect threat is the battle at sea, (the General Election). Biss has a way to get through all this, but it will be centrally based on real, true, organization. That is the real challenge. Kennedy and Pritzker need to use significant (millions) to organize a state that not only can they both (Kennedy and Pritzker) build something that will lead to a GOTV to rival Rauner’s organization and media presence. Would I have broken the cap? Only if I 100% know that I had $25+ million to get through March, and I had the Crew that could get that GOTV. If I’m the Rauner’s, today in real time, how are they not giddy? I would be. No fear, not even the blame for breaking the caps. This is going to be one crazy race. #Budget - 47th Ward GOP - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:00 am: Pawar and Biss fighting for the same money from progressives. - Leon Despres - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:09 am: Willy gave me some better sense of what’s going on here, but when I saw this — and honestly still now — I was flabbergasted. I don’t see the upside for Kennedy. He’s going to be outgunned on the money front by Pritzker, so why not let him bust the caps and hit him on it, and he’s leaning into the sword that Biss had already set up. Busting the caps just doesn’t seem like it’ll play all too well in a Democratic primary. Even so, it’s obvious he was doing it to make a point. He did it so early on, and so narrowly (just above the threshold). But the point he’s trying to make… got lost somewhere in translation for me. - William j Kelly - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:11 am: Hahahaahahhaha! What an amateur move! Let’s see if he even files!;) - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:26 am: === What an amateur move! === Says the guy who busted the caps in the mayor’s race which allowed Rahm Emanuel to bury Chuy Garcia with a huge pile of money. - don the legend - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:33 am: If Biss loses he at least has a great name for his band: Money and the Machine - William j Kelly - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:38 am: Rich, there you go again! If I didn’t bust the caps in the mayors race there never would’ve been a runoff. Rahm already had all the money he needed to run for mayor, busting the caps allowed the challengers to get in the game and by the way that’s exactly what Kennedy just did!;) - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:44 am: ===…busting the caps allowed the challengers to get in the game and by the way that’s exactly what Kennedy just did!;)=== And… === What an amateur move! === It’s such genius, it’s an amateur move? ===Hahahaahahhaha! What an amateur move! Let’s see if he even files=== You are clueless to your own thoughts… Ugh. - Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:45 am: This leaves me wondering…we pretty much know Kennedy doesn’t have the ability to self-fund in the manner of Pritzker or Rauner, but it’s possible that he’s built a small network of large-dollar donors that could keep him relatively close in resources if the caps were busted, so he busted them. Just a thought. - William j Kelly - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:53 am: oswego, your irrational blind hatred of me is blinding you to the reality that busting the caps helps challengers. For example I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Biss gets 200k from Eychaner today. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 9:54 am: I read your comment. Good luck. - The Captain - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 10:20 am: I was told second hand that part of the reason Kennedy busted the caps and busted them now was that he wanted to have a big quarter and I’ve been hearing for a while that he had a bunch of pledges lined up. There’s only a week left in the quarter, so I’m not sure how much stock I put in that explanation, but we’ll know this week if we start seeing big filings from Kennedy. He now has about $325,000 in the bank, his $250K that busted the caps and another ~$75K from earlier, not clear what number he’s trying to get to by Friday. If he blew the caps to have a million dollar quarter that would make for a nice headline but it would still be short of the almost $1.4 million Biss had to start the year. I’m not sure that would really move the needle, so we’ll see if it’s more. Having said all that my assumption is that by about next week there won’t be more than 10 or 20 people in the whole state who know/remember who busted the caps and it will all be overshadowed by Rauner and probably Pritzker’s money anyway. - 1: - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 10:21 am: It’s going to be ending of mine day, except before finish I am reading this great paragraph to increase my know-how. http://jaysonkeeler5385.wikidot.com/blog:1 - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 10:23 am: ===…there won’t be more than 10 or 20 people in the whole state who know/remember who busted the caps and it will all be overshadowed by Rauner and probably Pritzker’s money anyway=== All true, but the rub is Pritzker/Biss/Kennedy now can’t blame Rauner for blowing the cap, especially in free or paid media. That’s what’s at play, the point to be made, now that point is gone. - if you've got it - Monday, Mar 27, 17 @ 1:18 pm: If they’ve got the money - let them spend it. - Andrea Urraca - Thursday, Mar 30, 17 @ 1:14 am: Hello to all, since I am actually eager of reading this weblog’s post to be updated regularly. It contains pleasant information.| Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.