Fun with numbers
Wednesday, May 10, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Though people often focus on unemployment rates as a measure of economic health, another telling data point is how many people are so discouraged with the job search that they’re dropping out of the labor force altogether.
A newly released survey found good news: Fewer unemployed Americans are giving up looking for work. But that’s not the case in Illinois, where more people seem to be throwing up their hands.
A survey conducted by Harris Poll for Express Employment Professionals, a staffing agency, in March and April found 44 percent of jobless people in Illinois said they had completely given up looking for a job. That’s worse than the 41 percent who said the same last year and the 33 percent who said so in 2015.
Nationally, by contrast, 33 percent of jobless Americans in the recent survey said they’d stopped looking for work, an improvement from 40 percent last year.
“Economic and political factors unique to Illinois may be at play here,” Bob Funk, CEO of the staffing agency, said in a news release. Harris surveyed 1,500 jobless Americans, including 100 in Illinois.
Emphasis added because firm conclusions should never be drawn from a poll of 100 people.
- Cubs in '16 - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 11:50 am:
I always wonder what ‘Plan B’ is for the unemployed folks who give up looking for work.
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 11:56 am:
Moving out of state is likely plan B. Notice that we are losing people faster than any state?
- Anon221 - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 11:59 am:
The poll information, including infographic and more deep dive-
https://www.expresspros.com/Newsroom/America-Employed/New-Poll-Explores-Plight-of-Unemployed.aspx
Ron- Moving is not Plan B according to the poll results. More than likely, they can’t afford to move.
From the release-
More than half are unwilling to move to another state to find work. Respondents were asked, “How willing are you to consider relocating to another state to find a job?”
•4 percent already did
•35 percent say they are willing
•61 percent say “not at all willing”
In 2015, 61 percent said they were unwilling and in 2014, 60 percent were unwilling.
- WhoKnew - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:03 pm:
Some might say its the trickle (or river current) effect of billions of dollars of, so far unpaid bills, missing out of our economy.
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:13 pm:
I think you posted an older poll Anon221.
Here is an article on a recent one.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-illinois-unemployed-harris-poll-0511-biz-20170510-story.html
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:14 pm:
Key points from the article:
The poll data showed that 45 percent of Illinois’ unemployed had received only a high school diploma and nearly a third are under age 30, suggesting the jobs they aren’t finding are lower-skill, entry-level jobs. And, in Dolan’s experience, there are plenty of those available.
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
“Business owners know that we have massive unpaid bills in the state, so they start thinking tax hikes,” he said. He also points to minimum wage increases in Chicago and Cook County, and paid sick leave laws that go into effect in July, as causing employers to tighten their purse strings.
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
But the problem is not necessarily that there aren’t enough jobs; after all, Chicago and Cook County, which are both inching toward minimum wages of $13 an hour, tend to have stronger job creation and lower unemployment than many other parts of the state.
Rather, the city and county wage increases may be changing workers’ pay expectations throughout the state and misaligning their demands with what employers wish to offer, Dolan said.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:16 pm:
A “poll” of 100 people is news, while a United Way survey showing more than one million Illinoisans have been impacted by the state reneging on contracts does not make the tronc news pages.
Curious news judgment.
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:23 pm:
So, most of the unemployed in Illinois at least are unemployed by choice according to the poll. There are jobs for unskilled workers all over the place.
- Anon221 - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:23 pm:
Thanks Ron and apologies to the Post.
Here’s the current data-
https://www.expresspros.com/Newsroom/America-Employed/New-Survey-Reveals-Political-Opinions-of-Unemployed-Workers.aspx
- Ghost - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:29 pm:
and how many social service services and/or job training programs has Rauner let collapse that would have kept those folks lookin for work…. (g drop rauner style to show i care for people while defunding needed help)
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:32 pm:
Thanks Anon221
Ghost, public employee pensions are very expensive.
- Hieronymus - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 12:48 pm:
No, Ron. Paying the accumulated, compounded interest on pension deposits that should have been made decades ago is expensive, but you already know this.
- Ron - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 2:50 pm:
So is paying 3% compounded growth when inflation is zero. So is guaranteeing a monthly income when market returns are negative. Pensions will be the end of Illinois.
- Chicago Barb - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 3:12 pm:
How many moms dropped out of the workforce when Gov Rauner changed the criteria for the Child Care Assistance Program?
- Demoralized - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 3:40 pm:
==So is guaranteeing a monthly income when market returns are negative. ==
Huh? Perhaps you can translate that.
- Hieronymus - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 4:51 pm:
Try again, Ron. According to the BLS CPI-U calculator, inflation from 1970 (the year of the pension protection clause) thru 2016 was 4.02%, which, surprise!, is actually greater than the 3% AAI. That’s a 47 year run with periods of both high and low inflation, so I’m not just cherry picking a few short years to make a point.
- Hieronymus - Wednesday, May 10, 17 @ 5:22 pm:
Clarifying: _annual_ inflation of 4.02% over 47 years up through 2016.