Go to uhaul.com and check the price for a one-way truck rental moving from Chicago to Dallas on Saturday, July 1st. You’ll find that the current price for a one-way move is $1,650 for a 20 foot truck.
Now put the trip in reverse, making the one-way move from Dallas to Chicago instead of from Chicago to Dallas. The price for the reverse move with the same truck, the same mileage and the same date is $460.
This example shows how supply and demand affect prices, and it reveals a troubling reality for Illinois. After years of crippling outmigration, still more Illinoisans are planning to bolt this summer.
The price for a truck to leave Chicago is high because so many families are planning to get out. The price for a truck to move into Chicago is low because relatively few families are moving in to replace those who leave.
Moving companies like U-Haul need to factor these differences into their pricing model to protect their profitability, and to ensure that they don’t end up with an oversupply of Chicago-based trucks sitting in a Dallas parking lot.
You can check other cities and see similar results. There is high demand for a summer move from Chicago to cities like Denver, Nashville, Charlotte, Orlando and Indianapolis.
And here’s the kicker: U-Haul prices show that Illinois is even losing to recently bankrupt Detroit. The price for a 20-foot truck moving from Chicago to Detroit is $610. But the same truck moving from Detroit to Chicago costs only $185.
It’s like one last moving tax on beleaguered families as they leave Illinois. The demand to get out of Illinois is so high that you have to pay premium rates for a truck to Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Indiana and even Michigan.
Some claim this is a phenomenon happening all across the Midwest, and that the entire region is rapidly depopulating to the south and west.
Not so fast.
Run the same experiment between Indianapolis and Dallas and you will see a very different result.
The one-way move from Indianapolis to Dallas is nearly $1000, while the one-way move from Dallas to Indianapolis is nearly $900. In other words, Dallas wins the pricing battle with Indianapolis, but not by much.
- Downstate - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:12 pm:
I’m surprised by the number of “middle class” individuals that are moving their “residence” to another state, but still keeping their Illinois home.
The residency migration of high net worth individuals from our community occurred years ago. It’s clearly moving down the net worth scale.
- Anonymous - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:12 pm:
Did the story include a disclaimer about how much money Dick Uihlein gave IPI? Or doesn’t he own Uhaul?
- Gruntled University Employee - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:14 pm:
You lost me at Illinois Policy Institute.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:16 pm:
===This example shows how supply and demand affect prices,===
Breath-takingly stupid assertion. One-way rentals charge a premium period. If your one-way rental is to a place where fewer U-Haul rentals take place, they charge a higher premium.
Everybody in Texas has a pick-up truck, it seems. Chicago is a much better market for U-Haul than, say, Amarillo. So if you leave the truck in Texas, it’s harder for u-Haul to get it back into circulation, and they charge a premium for that. A one-way trip ending in Chicago does not present the same issues for U-Haul.
Try it for your self. Check rates for Chicago to Effingham, one-way. Then one-way from Effingham to Chicago.
The stupid is really strong over at IPI.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:19 pm:
Wow, not good.
- Dublin - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:26 pm:
This is nothing new. The same practice has been going on for 30 years and is not specific to Chicago/Illinois. You would see the same prices from Indy to Dallas and Dallas to Indy. Typical IPI garbage.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:26 pm:
===Everybody in Texas has a pick-up truck, it seems===
My brother lives down there. He says a thousand people a day are moving into Dallas metro.
- The Captain - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:26 pm:
Look on the bright side, until Trump’s superwall goes up it’s really cheap to move your contraband from Texas to Chicago. Just call U-Haul, $460!!!
- Worth It - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:29 pm:
2 ad hominem posts out of four. Glad posters are staying above the fray.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:29 pm:
===He says a thousand people a day are moving into Dallas metro===
That’s great. Are they all driving U-Hauls?
- Worth It - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:31 pm:
Dublin, did you read the post? Can we encourage at least minimal effort here?
- Rogue Roni - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:31 pm:
Is the IPI thinking of moving? Can we start a go fund me page to speed up the process?
- PJ - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:33 pm:
As 47th Ward correctly points out, this is pretty classic IPI analysis in that it seems worthwhile on a surface level and is meaningless below.
They mention supply and demand, but whichever intern spent an hour on uhaul.com clearly hasn’t gotten around to microecon yet.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:33 pm:
The Metroplex will pass Chicagoland in Media Market easiky within the next decade.
Housing is continually being built, infrastructure is keeping up the best they can.
It’s not Houston that’s growing it’s the Metroplex
- Worth It - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:35 pm:
Thank you PJ for attacking the point. Completely agree.
- Not Surprising - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:35 pm:
Why would anyone move to Chicago or IL? Please give me three reasons.
- Earnest - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:36 pm:
As we said many times during the Quinn years, paying our back-due bills to vendors, higher education, human services, etc. would be an incredibly powerful economic stimulus for the state. A stable, balanced budget would do more for the state than anything else (negative impacts of both cuts and taxes included in that). Lots more to do, but got to stop digging the hole deeper and deeper first.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:39 pm:
===Why would anyone move to Chicago===
Tech jobs.
Medicine jobs.
Universities.
Finance jobs.
Real estate investments.
Etc.
- Anonymous - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:43 pm:
47th ward — try big city to big city. Chicago to Dallas - $1400. Dallas to Chicago $400. Indy to Dallas $800. Dallas to Indy $700. Get your head out of the sand.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:45 pm:
===Etc.===
The lake front.
The theaters.
Great restaurants
The museums.
Public transportation.
Sports.
Parks.
Good housing options.
World-class architecture.
Etc.
- wordslinger - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:46 pm:
I don’t buy too much into the UHaul school of economics. Too shallow and pat.
The field of logistics when it comes to pricing and moving fleets around the country is a discipline all its own (although I’m aware that Dallas is experiencing significant population growth relative to Chicago).
As a point of illustration: if you go to expedia.com right now, you can book a one-way ticket from Chicago to Dallas for $46; the price for a one-way from Dallas to Chicago is $74.
By the IPI logic, they’d say that price differential shows more people “fleeing” to Chicago from Dallas. I don’t think that’s the case.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:48 pm:
===Get your head out of the sand.===
The point is that U-Haul sets its prices based on its costs, not on your politics. Chicago is a major hub, where a lot of their equipment is based. It’s more efficient for them to have equipment returning to Chicago, as opposed to Dallas, or Denver, or where ever.
And the sand smells a lot better than where your head is apparently stuck.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:51 pm:
- Not Surprising - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:35 pm:
Why would anyone move to Chicago or IL? Please give me three reasons.”
Most of Illinois is a wasteland. Chicago is a large, exciting and dymnamic city. The City is filled with cultural amenities and cheap if one likes an urban environment.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:52 pm:
To be fair, most of the US is a wasteland. Not to pile too much on Illinois.
- Julian's Melange - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:54 pm:
Those who doubt this is really happening and the economic climate is not to blame are whistling past the grave yard.
- Demoralized - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:55 pm:
==Most of Illinois is a wasteland.==
Those of us that live in other parts of Illinois besides Chicago would disagree with you. Your negative rants against non-Chicago Illinois are utter nonsense.
- Cubs in '16 - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:56 pm:
===Etc., Etc.===
Wrigley Field
- Baloneymous most - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:57 pm:
Most of Illinois and US is wasteland….
Like on Mars??? Have some fruit guy.
- Chicago Cynic - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:57 pm:
I don’t think it means what they think it means but it is curious. Do Chicago to Minneapolis and vice versa. cost is 3x to go to Chicago than from. I’ll bet a simple call to UHaul PR would answer the question.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 1:57 pm:
There are like four states losing population, one of which is Illinois. It had one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation until March 2017.
Julian is spot on. I’m sure a massive tax hike will solve everything though.
- wordslinger - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:00 pm:
For some areas of exploration beyond the UHaul school of economics, this Hinz column is a good start.
As has been evident to anyone with eyes who actually gets around the city, Chicago for years has been experiencing a great drop in the black population, particularly in the most violent parts of the city (who wouldn’t get out of those shooting galleries who could?).
Some of you might have even noticed all those dozens of CHA towers that were torn down over the last 15 years or so, to be replaced by low risers, if anything at all.
On the other hand, a blind man can see the cranes building new upscale apartment and condo towers all over the greater Loop and North Side. Those parts of the city are getting much younger, wealthier and whiter. It ain’t cheap living in Chicago.
The truth is, the Tale of Two Cities is becoming more pronounced, every day.
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160528/ISSUE05/305289992/chicagos-racial-makeup-is-changing-in-new-ways
- Kan_Man - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:01 pm:
The honesty of IPI or the value of this could be debated all day and night. Unfortunately, it is coupled with known population stagnation or decreases. Uhaul and IPI aren’t the most believable sources of this but when Congressional seat allocation post census pretty much proves the point.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:02 pm:
Baloneymous, have you traveled around the country? I mean, there are a few nice places, but it’s mostly sad and depressing. NYC, SF, Miami, Boston, LA, Chicago and plus some nice nature, but generally it’s horrible.
- whetstone - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:07 pm:
Hmm. Penske lists Chicago as a top 10 moving destination for 2015. (https://blog.gopenske.com/news/penske-truck-rental-announces-2015-top-moving-destinations/).
Uhaul has it at number five on its “growth cities” list for the same year. (http://myuhaulstory.com/2016/02/05/us-growth-city-no-1-concord-calif-tops-u-haul-list-for-2015/).
There’s plenty of data backing the state’s problems. I’m skeptical of this analysis though.
- wordslinger - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:07 pm:
–Baloneymous, have you traveled around the country? I mean, there are a few nice places, but it’s mostly sad and depressing. NYC, SF, Miami, Boston, LA, Chicago and plus some nice nature, but generally it’s horrible.–
So go back to Macedonia. What you do, you can do from there with the rest of them.
- Doug - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:07 pm:
47th Ward,
You can try to spin it all you would like, but the fact is Dallas has an overabundance of Uhauls they need to move to different markets.
They are actually putting Uhauls on train cars to re-position them around the country.
And people may have pickups here in Texas, but when it comes time to move, they use a UHaul.
- Not Surprising - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:08 pm:
Rich and 47th Ward…
I have lived here all my life and ready to get out. I have seen all of IL and many other states and sorry the landscape all the culture does not measure up to the current nonsense going on this state. Those jobs you mention…let’s see how prosperous things continue. South of I80 is not doing so well. Let’s just say I have put my rose colored glasses away.
- scott aster - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:09 pm:
You want to talk about wasteland…a friend just moved back to Chicago from AZ. Rich & 47 have a good list..
- thechampaignlife - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:10 pm:
===paying our back-due bills…would be an incredibly powerful economic stimulus for the state===
Maybe that is the plan for the Trump recession. Rack up bills, pay them when the economy tanks, show how we weathered the crash better than other states?
===Or doesn’t he own Uhaul?===
No, he owns Uline.
- Downstate - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:15 pm:
Ron,
“mostly sad and depressing”
Wow! I feel sorry for you. I love living in Illinois, but will unfortunately likely leave because of the financial apocalypse facing this state.
I have a 10 minute commute (5 minutes each way.) Summers extend from June 1 to October 15th in downstate Illinois.
There are entrepreneurial opportunities - you just have to look for them.
For so many, the impression one has of both communities and/or people, is a direct reflection of what they were looking for.
If you seek opportunity and goodness - it’s usually what you’ll find.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:17 pm:
- scott aster - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:09 pm:
You want to talk about wasteland…a friend just moved back to Chicago from AZ. Rich & 47 have a good list.”
Oh boy, AZ is one of the worst places I have ever been.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:17 pm:
Downstate, I love Chicago. That’s why I’m here.
- Almost the Weekend - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:18 pm:
The question is why would people move to Chicago, it should be, why should people move to anywhere outside the Chicagoland area? That’s the real issue
- Ok - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:19 pm:
This site seems to promote a lot of Illinois Policy misinformation.
- James Knell - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:20 pm:
This is the same kind of iffy-folksy research that was so big in Reagan’s day. Regardless, I don’t want to sweat my butt off in Dallas. If that’s your idea of paradise, go for it.
- filmmaker prof - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:23 pm:
A “massive” progressive tax hike that allows us to pay down our unpaid bills, fairly fund our schools, fund higher ed and fund social services would produce a positive economic outcome for the entire state.
- kitty - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:24 pm:
Mr. Rauner cannot demonstrate that the passage of so called “right to work” laws, elimination of prevailing wage laws and the destruction of organized labor will adequately fix Illinois’ fiscal problems, let alone address outmigration per the post. OTOH, the cost of borrowing has increased since Rauner was elected by amount which exceeds the entire amount of savings he claimed his “turnaround agenda” would provide (albeit without documentation) and we’re only 2 years into his tenure as gov. Having a budget in place helps to mitigate uncertainty, something more important to investors and businesses than passing an agenda which seeks to diminish what is left of the middle class. Rauner could have had moderate and meaningful reforms by now if he wanted them; he clearly doesn’t.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:31 pm:
- filmmaker prof - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:23 pm:
A “massive” progressive tax hike that allows us to pay down our unpaid bills, fairly fund our schools, fund higher ed and fund social services would produce a positive economic outcome for the entire state.”
Not until massive spending cuts and public employee benefit protection is eliminated.
- ZC - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:31 pm:
I am sorry but I’ve got to chime in with those who said, “It’s the Illinois Policy Institute.”
I mean it’s not like they ever make valid points but I’ve got a limited amount of time to process news, and I’ve got better sources I can trust far more.
- whetstone - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 2:45 pm:
OK, Uhaul has a whole site on “growth” cities/states. IL is #50 in 2016 and 2015, which are the only years they rank 1-50. Chicago’s not in the top 25 for 2016, but it’s #5 in 2015, #2 in 2014, #4 in 2013, #3 in 2012, #4 in 2011.
Penske? Chicago’s not in the top 10 for 2016, but is for 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012.
There might be something here, but rental prices alone seems like it’s not capturing everything.
- Harry - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:05 pm:
There is some truth and some value to this sort of analysis, but it does not speak to how much of the U-Haul price difference is due to the current budget stand-off, for which Rauner gets 50% of the blame, and how much is due to structural or legal issues–and of the latter, whether Rauner’s ideas would actually improve things by much.
So, I view this as merely preaching to the IPI’s choir. It won’t persuade anyone who doesn’t already believe.
- Cubs in '16 - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:08 pm:
===This site seems to promote a lot of Illinois Policy misinformation.===
I don’t think it’s promotion as much as exposure. Being aware of misinformation is just as important as knowing the legit stuff.
- CapnCrunch - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:08 pm:
According to the latest IRS data, in the three years 2011-2013 an average of 1310 Cook County residents moved to Dallas County, Texas while 805 moved in the reverse direction. Those who left had an average AGI of $73,800, those arriving $49,200. In 2011 those who left had an AGI of $93,900, those arriving $40,000.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
whetstone, not good. I was curious about that, because Chicago usually does well on those lists.
- Luclky Pierre - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:16 pm:
I am constantly amazed that information is totally disregarded because it goes against people’s preconceived notions of how they view the world or where the information came from.
Inconvenient facts are simply ignored or mocked. Census data is dismissed.
Simple supply and demand would indicate that if the demand for U Hauls leaving Illinois is greater than the demand for incoming the price would be higher.
http://www.nwherald.com/2016/01/19/out-migration-from-illinois-hits-six-digits-state-population-loss-leads-nation/aw6o56j/
For the first time, the annual loss of Illinois residents to outmigration exceeded 100,000 people, according to census data. About 105,200 more people left Illinois than arrived, according to census data released for the period between July 2014 and July 2015.
While an influx of 37,600 residents through international migration, and a natural population growth of 52,207 pared the Land of Lincoln’s total population loss to 22,194 people, Illinois still led all 50 states in population loss. At the same time, every other state in the Midwest showed a net population increase.
- Anonymous - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:21 pm:
Capn, those income numbers don’t tell us a whole lot. Young people are moving here, they’re starting salaries are lower. Some middle aged, blue color dude is likely moving to Dallas because he can buy a hideous McMansion for the price of his bi-level in Mt. Prospect.
But we are definitely losing more people to Dallas than are moving here from Dallas.
It blows my mind though, because Dallas a huge hot dump.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:23 pm:
Lucky, as long as we institute massive tax hikes without any reform or government spending reductions, all with be peachy.
AMIRIGHT?
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:24 pm:
===Simple supply and demand===
I’m not going to take an econ lesson from a guy who can’t even spell his own name.
- Lucky Pierre - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:28 pm:
Of course not, don’t address the facts just continue dismissing irrefutable census data from the year before Governor Rauner was elected and mock those who dare to challenge your subterfuge.
- Slugger O'Toole - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:30 pm:
This reminds me of the Kiwi Theory of Economics. As the only indicator, as shoe shine sales go up, the economy sinks further into the tank. Because no one is buying new shoes.
- Lucky Pierre - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:32 pm:
inconvenient facts are simply ignored or mocked. Census data is dismissed.
only took 8 minutes for 47th Ward to be exhibit a
- VanillaMan - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:32 pm:
Dallas has dropped behind San Antonio in population after having been the second largest Texan city for generations. What is Dallas doing wrong? What can IPI do for Dallas except make anecdotal crap up about moving vans, the Turnaround Agenda, and the cost comparisons between Frosted Flakes and Firestone tires?
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:37 pm:
LP, you not only failed economics and spelling, you couldn’t pass reading for comprehension either.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:53 pm:
Keep your head buried deep in the sand 47th. Illinois is in a death spiral of population loss with taxpayers fleeing to get out from under a political and public workforce that only cares about themselves.
If it weren’t for Chicago, this state would be no better than Alabama.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 3:57 pm:
Ron and LP only have keyboards apparently. If they were using monitors they might actually read what I wrote.
- Swift - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:08 pm:
The same story could have been written about the cost of a covered wagon and a set of oxen in the 1840s & 1850s to get to California and would be just as meaningless, population and economic changes happen. Populations migrate, people and business move from old established economies to new emerging economies, that’s just how we work as people and has nothing to do with Mike Madigan.
Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America all seem to be functioning well enough after all of us left, so Illinois will be just fine, a little different, but just fine.
- Demoralized - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:09 pm:
Who says you can’t take one quirky story and translate it into evidence of a death spiral.
While this story is interesting I’m not sure I’m using it as the road map of the economic state of Illinois. I’m thinking things are a bit more complicated than the rental price of a U Haul. Interesting? Yes. Useful in an analysis of Illinois economics? Doubtful.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:19 pm:
Illinois has lost 112,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2007 to March 2017.
It will have taken Illinois 17 years to recoup all the jobs it lost since 2000.
Illinois’ unemployment rate was among the worst in the nation until March 2017 when the labor pool shrinking finally caught up.
Meanwhile the US has been breaking jobs records for the last four years.
- Veil of Ignorance - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:39 pm:
Midwestern cities historically sustain and grow their populations thru immigration. Hearing that nobody from Texas is moving to Chicago is not really a shocker. Illinois must stay competitive for immigrants by adopting welcoming policies and avoiding hostile policies such as some of the other regions of the country. Time will tell if these other states and regions will suffer as a result of their pro-Trump tilt on these issues; IL should position itself now to capitalize.
- ZC - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:41 pm:
Maybe IL would look like more of an attractive option for families with children, if Rauner wasn’t in the process of burning our public higher ed system to the ground.
- Ron - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:53 pm:
- Veil of Ignorance - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 4:39 pm:
“Midwestern cities historically sustain and grow their populations thru immigration. Hearing that nobody from Texas is moving to Chicago is not really a shocker. Illinois must stay competitive for immigrants by adopting welcoming policies and avoiding hostile policies such as some of the other regions of the country. Time will tell if these other states and regions will suffer as a result of their pro-Trump tilt on these issues; IL should position itself now to capitalize.”
I’m on board with this.
- Illinoisvoter - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 8:23 pm:
Sorry to confuse the narrative, but the assumption
that every uhaul rental is a household exiting
the state is just ridiculous. Trucking my own
books instead of having them shipped directly
to the site saves thousands at each library
or bookseller show and matters in a business
with tight margins.
- NorthsideNoMore - Thursday, May 11, 17 @ 11:15 pm:
So now does anyone wonder why housing is flat or faltering in Illinois.