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A quick look at a few congressional races
Wednesday, Apr 18, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * Hmm…
* By all accounts, Randy Hultgren’s Democratic opponent Lauren Underwood is a strong candidate. She scored 57 percent in a seven-way Democratic primary, defeating her closest competitor by a massive 44 points. The Johns Hopkins graduate also has an impressive life story to tell voters and the buzz on her is super strong. Underwood even outraised Congressman Hultgren in the first quarter, $465K to $361K. Something is definitely happening there. And, as Tom Bowen points out on the Twitter machine, Gov. Rauner isn’t gonna be much help there this year. * But, in 2016, Donald Trump won the 14th CD by 4 points, Mark Kirk won it by 8 and Leslie Munger won it by 20. Rauner won it by 33 in 2014, Mitt Romney won it by 10 in 2012. In the 2010 Census, the district’s voting age population was 84 percent white, 9 percent Latino, 4 percent Asian and just 2.5 percent African-American. Underwood is an African-American. I am NOT saying Underwood cannot win. Stranger things have happened in politics. And, hey, Jesse White won that district by 15 points in 2014, so a black Democrat can prevail. What I am saying is Charlie Cook has this contest as “lean Republican” for good reasons. The partisan split will be difficult to overcome even in a wave election and, frankly, the racial gap makes it all the more difficult. I’m betting she’s gonna give him a heck of a run, though. * Greg Hinz…
* Charlie Cook has that Bost race listed as a tossup and he could be right. According to that TPM story, the Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $2 million in TV advertising spots for Congressman Bost. He’s probably gonna need it. Democratic St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly outraised Bost in the first quarter $585K to $535K and had almost a million in the bank at the end of the quarter, just shy of Bost’s total. Like Underwood, Kelly has been placed in the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which means he’s a priority. The former Navy officer who as state’s attorney sued pharmaceutical companies over the opioid crisis is billing himself as a moderate pragmatist and has said he will not support US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi if he wins. Donald Trump won the 12th CD by 15 points, but Tammy Duckworth won it by 9, which gives Democrats some hope. Leslie Munger, however, took it by 5. Barack Obama won it by 1.5 in 2012. * Back to that Greg Hinz piece about Roskam not getting any money from the Congressional Leadership Fund…
Democrats would be absolute fools to believe the GOP is already writing off Roskam. Cook has this one as a tossup as well, albeit with a partisan index of R+2, which is less than Bost’s R+5. Hillary Clinton won the 6th CD by 7 points, which excites Dems, but Mark Kirk won it by 6 and Leslie Munger won it by 21. The only other statewide Democrat besides Clinton to win the district was Jesse White, who took it by 17 in 2014. Obama lost it by 8 in 2012. Casten narrowly defeated five women opponents and one male opponent in the primary. There was a palpable sense of relief among Republicans when Casten won because they were much more afraid of a female nominee. I could go on, but this race has already been covered to death by other outlets. * Your thoughts on any or all of these races?
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- Dan Johnson - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:27 pm:
When you add up all the contested state legislative races in each of the precincts of each of the congressional districts and add up those votes to the statewide candidates in those districts, Bost’s 2016 electorate is much pinker than Roskam, Hultgren or Rodnay Davis.
- Blue dog dem - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:30 pm:
I got Bost eeking out a 1% win. Not scientific polling data mind you. But based on which asparagus plant produced first. Same asparagus plant predicted a Trump win.
- DuPage Saint - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:34 pm:
As much as I have never cared for Roskam I think he is safe. Hultgren I always have found personable and I bet he wins. These districts are Republican by nature and unless our fearless leader does something even more outrageous they will stay Republican even with gosh awful Rauner
People gate congress but like their congressman
And if I am right an honorable mention award should go to Pate Phillip for getting rid of the straight ticket if that was still arose would not be a Republican left in the state
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:36 pm:
Casten may win in spite of his campaign. Word is that his campaign manager is raising alarm bells in meetings with various Democratic groups and that there’s real concern about his ability to wage the kind of top tier campaign needed to beat Roskam.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:38 pm:
===Your thoughts on any or all of these races?===
How big is the D wave? All potential pickups. All potential narrow losses for the Ds. Suburban districts could be hit particularly hard by the wave, though. I have absolutely no confidence guessing at this point. Mueller and the S&P 500 could be determining factors.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:41 pm:
I don’t see any of these seats flipping.
- Saluki - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:43 pm:
Bost hasn’t lost an election since 1992. I am guessing that isn’t going to change this time either.
- LuckyCharms - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:44 pm:
I think you have the wrong vote smart page for Brendan Kelly. The link goes to the New Hampshire legislator.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:48 pm:
Thanks, LuckyCharms. One of them days. lol
- Annonin' - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:48 pm:
Guessin’ the Provenzano Code of Conduct Manual not helpin’ Randy too much either.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:50 pm:
Great day to have this Post, Rich.
To this Post, then,
The talk of Gerrymandering, it should be noted *this* map was a map most members currently seated, or the party currently in control of the seat, saw in a map that had enough protection from the normal, yet weren’t too outlandish that races could occur, like the Bost or Schneider seats.
The point I’m making is the drawing of the congressional map here in Illinois was gerrymandered with “enough force Rhône” and everyone safe… unless.
So, thinking that Roskam, Bost, others like Hultgren might face a challenge, that’s a precursor to a wave and the Illinois Republican Party, at the congressional level of concern should worry, as Trump and Rauner could be a drag, so much so the map of competititive balance… of power… might tip a bit blue.
Roskam should worry.
Bost should be concerned.
Hultgren should pay attention.
Davis should stay alert.
… all four could be “fine” or be “finished”… or…
- @misterjayem - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:56 pm:
“Your thoughts on any or all of these races?”
A great deal of money will be raised in the 6th District, for and against Peter Roskam. The money raised for Peter Roskam will be spent in the 6th District to elect Peter Roskam. By contrast, the money raised against Peter Roskam will be spent by the DCCC in other races around the country where the Democratic candidate is much more likely to win.
– MrJM
- Al - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 2:58 pm:
Republicans are vulnerable due to their successful passage of controversial legislation. The end of the inheritance tax on billionaires, the return to pre- Glass Seagal days allowing banks to again be taxpayer guaranteed casinos, the trillion dollar deficits, attacks on the environment, and the blind and disabled’s dental care. It did not get a lot of press but they even briefly rehashed a Reagan era idea that ketchup should count as a school lunch vegetable. They are out of touch.
I like Brendan Kelly to give Bost a run for his money. Bost’s false claims Cannabis is a gateway drug and has no medical value can readily be attacked and his positions held up for ridicule by a veteran and State’s Attorney.
- Lefty Lefty - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 3:13 pm:
My post earlier about Preckwinkle never showed up. I’ll try again.
I have lived in the 14th for 25 years. I went to a lunch talk with Roskam and Hultgren last fall. Protesters were outside pointing out–correctly–that neither of them have had any public events in over a year. This is the act of someone who thinks he’s in the driver’s seat. Both of them aren’t working hard enough to win.
I went to an Underwood event before Election Day and followed the campaign closely. There was no indication at all that she was going to run away with the vote. She crushed 6 very capable opponents, winning a clear majority. She’s smart, articulate, and unflappable.
The general will come down to turnout. Underwood has the capability to flip the 14th if turnout exceeds 20%. Considering this was supposed to be a Republican sink when drawn, that’s pretty impressive.
- anon - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 3:28 pm:
Hultgren’s district will only turn Dem when the opposing candidate is personally problematic (see Oberweis losing to Foster) and even then, the Dem needs to run as a centrist.
- Soccermom - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 3:54 pm:
I met Lauren Underwood on Sunday night. She’s awesome. And formidable.
- DuPage - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 4:48 pm:
Roskam is probably safe because much of his district is strongly Republican.
- DarkHorse - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 5:09 pm:
Met Underwood briefly at a fundraiser post-primary - great presence, even better in person than on TV. She can raise money nationally - she was one of a very few congressional races profiled in The New Yorker today, avidly read by moneyed liberals.
- Ron - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 5:11 pm:
I would love almost nothing more in politics than see Roskam go down hard. Being Trump’s waterboy is a disaster for Illinois.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 5:24 pm:
“Roskam is probably safe because much of his district is strongly Republican.”
That’s some mighty fine political analysis there, Lou.
- The_Equalizer - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 6:57 pm:
Hard to see Bost losing his district, probably have a scare and win by 4-7 points.
- Not a Billionaire - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 7:07 pm:
All 4 flip. If the wave holds there will be real surprises somewhere like a veto proof GA again.
- Not a Billionaire - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 7:13 pm:
My empirical basis. The Texas Senate race is tied. Rauner and Trump are anvils here. Only the Reddist of red districts would be safe.
- DuPager - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 9:50 pm:
#RepealAndReplaceRoskam
Love Hultgren though. Great guy.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 18, 18 @ 11:46 pm:
Roskam campaigns as a moderate and when he’s elected he votes hard right-wing.
- StClair - Thursday, Apr 19, 18 @ 9:13 am:
Word on the street in St. Clair County is Kelly’s internal numbers aren’t looking so great. He’ll lose like Enyart, Baricevic before him.
- Pieman - Thursday, Apr 19, 18 @ 11:25 am:
Randy Hultgren has been hiding from his constituents since Trump’s inauguration. He doesn’t do town halls and he doesn’t make appearances because he doesn’t want to face tough questions about the president and his policies. Underwood on the other hand is constantly making appearances all over the 14th. People don’t want a congressman who doesn’t have the nerve to face the people he serves. If Hultgren sticks with his “lay low” strategy Underwood will have a very good chance of taking the seat.