At issue, in a mistake that I think Casten is making worse by refusing to talk about it, is a blog post he wrote almost six years ago provocatively titled, “Thoughts on Economic Growth and Energy Slaves.” I was pointed to the post by a political operative working for an independent group that supports Roskam’s re-election. It’s buried if you do a broad search, but pops up on Google (and Bing) if you put in the right search terms.
In the post on Grist, Casten makes the argument that American prosperity and living standards have grown dramatically as we’ve boosted our use of fuels as opposed to “coercive labor.” I don’t disagree with his point. But the way he expresses it is tone-deaf, to put it mildly.
“How much energy was available to the (free) population of the antebellum South? In 1860, the U.S. had just 4 million slaves, working for about 8.5 million free residents of the South and border states,” Casten writes. “Adding 3.4 million horses, mules and oxen in the South as of 1860,” and assuming that the average pack animal can do the work of about seven people, “an average slaveholder had . . . 4.2 energy slave equivalents per free person,” and the South, as a whole, 3.27 “energy slaves” apiece.
By today, the nation’s “energy use amounts to 100 energy slaves per capita,” he concludes. “That is the extraordinary legacy of industrialization and fossil fuel extraction. We get 30 times the energy access of an 1860s plantation owner . . . and human rights, too.”
* Check out the Rauner campaign’s new Facebook ads…
According to Facebook, the ads (I counted six slightly different versions) started running today.
Blagojevich, you will recall, made the exact same demand to release all the tapes during and after his trials.
The tapes were ordered sealed by a federal judge. I can’t see how an online petition will do much of anything besides gather names for a campaign database.
* Gov. Rauner did another softball interview with WGN’s Steve Cochran and was asked about his new TV ads…
The truth about Pritzker has got to be known by the people of Illinois. Pritzker is a corrupt insider. He’s been part of the problem in Springfield for many, many years. He was tight with Blagojevich, he’s tight with Madigan. He funded each of them in their political shenanigans. And Pritzker, unfortunately is a tax dodger, to use a nice term for it. Inherited billions, hides the money in the Bahamas so he doesn’t pay his proper income taxes. Has used Madigan’s law firm to cheat his property taxes in Chicago. Ripped the toilets out of his mansion so he doesn’t pay the proper property taxes on his homes in Chicago. He’s a corrupt, self-dealing insider. He’s part of the problem and we’ve got to get the truth about him known.
REPORTER: “You just signed a budget that spends the money from the tax increase that you opposed. Over the summer we’re moving into a campaign season. Are you going to out there on the campaign trail and tell people that you object to this tax increase that you’re approving the spending on?”
RAUNER: “Absolutely.”
REPORTER: “Isn’t that disingenuous?”
RAUNER: “Not at all. If we introduced – if we passed a budget that I introduced, the spending plan that I introduced we could begin to rollback that tax hike and we would be running a $1.5 billion surplus in this coming year and we could – “
REPORTER: [INAUDIBLE]
RAUNER: “This is bipartisan compromise, this is a compromise. It’s not perfect, none of us got everything that we were looking for. This budget does not pay down bills so I was very frustrated. It did not pass the comprehensive pension reform that the Senate Democrats passed last year, we need to do that. It did not get regulatory relief for businesses, and workers comp and other regulations so we can grow more jobs. And most importantly, or I should say maybe very importantly it did not get the mandate relief on our schools, our schools need mandate relief and we need mandate relief on our local government so we can consolidate governments more effectively and efficiently and bring down our tax burden. These are the changes we will continue to strive to make, but this budget for the first time in many years even prior to me being Governor is balanced, through some hard work and some great efforts we will have it balanced and it stops some excessive spending that would have otherwise happened. And it’s a good step in the right direction.”
I’ll add one other point that I think is salient, if we had passed the budget that I had introduced in February – that I had proposed in February – and then just used the rest of the assumptions and programs that are in this budget we would be running about a $1.5 billion surplus in the coming fiscal year. We could use that for a tax reduction, we could use that to invest more in infrastructure, and we could use that to pay down bills.
OK, now that’s disingenuous. He talks like $1.5 billion is a huge amount of money that can easily be divvied up for a tax cut, infrastructure and paying off bills. The bill backlog alone will be more than $7 billion at the end of the fiscal year.
A $1.5 billion tax cut would reduce the income rate by 0.375 percentage points. So, instead of a 4.95 personal rate, we’d have a 4.575 rate. Great news! The exodus will surely end! But since much of what they used to “balance” the budget are one-time revenue sources, including borrowing $800 million from special funds for two years and selling the Thompson Center, we’d be in an even worse hole.
Divide it up three ways and you’d trim the backlog by a mere $500 million, reduce the income tax rate by 0.125 points to 4.825 and have a half a bil left over for capital - and you’d still have a $6.6 billion backlog with even less state money to address it.
The incumbent Republican, who is running for re-election in November, calls the $38.5 billion spending plan a true bipartisan compromise and a “good day for the people of Illinois.” But one thing noticeably left off the negotiation table this year was his “turn around agenda,” a list of business and economic reforms he once campaigned on.
When asked why he dropped his prior demands for lower property taxes, worker compensation rates and pension reforms at Monday’s budget signing, he echoed lawmakers saying, “Not everyone got what they wanted.” […]
Illinois Chamber of Commerce President Todd Maisch says he’s disappointed Governor Rauner let business reforms fall to the wayside but understands why he did.
“Unfortunately, this is a short-term solution that addresses no new revenues this year, somewhat spending restraint, but only compared to General Assemblies in the past,” Maisch said. “I think he made the right political choice to go ahead and say, ‘Let’s get as close to a balanced budget this year as we can and take those others issues to the people.’ Voters are going to go to the polls in November and voters will decide where they want to go.”
Agreed. If Rauner is reelected, he’ll have a true mandate. Everybody now clearly knows what he wants to accomplish.
Yesterday, Politico reported that the Pritzker campaign will spend double whatever the Rauner campaign spends. They quote a Pritzker source saying, “For every dollar he spends, we’re ready to spend two.”
Who says that?
The Pritzker campaign is claiming that their budget won’t be built around what’s most effective. Instead, they just want to arrogantly brag about their wealth.
“Based off his conversations with Blagojevich, Pritzker has already shown a willingness to try to buy political office.” -Will Allison, Rauner campaign spokesman
The Pritzker campaign’s messaging machine is usually tight as a drum, but that one somehow got through. It’s not a good look. I assume someone was just doing some tough-guy, hyperbolic bragging.
Partisans may cheer it on (and since his new ad leaves much to be desired, he could use that), but as Will alludes to, the vow is impractical. I mean, if Rauner puts 10,000 points on Chicago TV then Pritzker is gonna push 20,000 just because he’s got the dough? Ridiculous. Not to mention that such selfish spending could drown out or even potentially crowd out other Democratic candidates - particularly must-win Democratic congressional candidates.
But, hey, if this means that if Rauner spends $4 million on Erika Harold then Pritzker will spend $8 million on Kwame Raoul, I’m sure there won’t be any loud objections from the Raoul campaign.
Also, it is a bit rich that the Rauner campaign is upset about somebody else trying to buy an election.
* I asked Galia Slayen at the Pritzker campaign for a response and this is what she sent…
Our campaign is focused on doing what is necessary to communicate that JB will bring real change to Illinois, beat Bruce Rauner and end his failed time as governor, while also helping turn out Democrats up and down the ballot. If this failed governor wants to ask “who says that,” we suggest taking a look at these:
• On his role as governor: “I’m not in charge, I’m trying to get to be in charge.”
• On his leadership style: “Crisis creates opportunity. Crisis creates leverage to change.”
• On if he voted for Donald Trump: “We need to focus. Focus, Amanda, is a good thing.”
• On Quincy: “Our team did exactly what they should have done, exactly when they should have done it” and “these things happen.”
• “Not every job should be in America.”
• On the budget crisis he created: “Well one of the challenges is for our human services and it’s intolerable that they have been hurt, it’s not right.”
• On spending the tax increase he opposed: “Isn’t that disingenuous?” Rauner: “Not at all…”
• Before firing his whole staff… again: “So, we’re, we have a lot of folks in the administration, we’re building the Best Team in America to turn the government around.”
• On not denouncing David Duke as a racist: “But you won’t call him racist?” Rauner: “No place.”
• On the right to choose: “I am the strongest supporter of candidates for office who are pro-life. Nobody has worked harder to elect pro-life Republicans than I have.”
• On letting voters know where he stands: “I have no obligation to comment on every possible policy change in Washington, DC. I never have and never will.”
• On gay marriage: “So gay marriage, I have not supported it, I will not advocate for it.”
• On lowering the minimum wage: “I will advocate moving the Illinois minimum wage back to the national minimum wage.”
• On proudly shutting down the government: “I may have to take a strike and shut down the government for a few weeks and kind of regroup with these contracts. That’s a possibility. I don’t know any politicians who’d be willing to do that. I won’t be happy to do that, but I will do it proudly.”
• On calling Ives: Rauner said they spoke “right after the election,” but Ives spokeswoman said that Rauner “is not telling the truth” and “what he is saying happened did not happen.”
• On chocolate milk: “I’ll drink it, I’ll be proud to…it’s really really good, to it. Diversity!”
*** UPDATE *** The latest Comcast cable TV buy report shows Rauner spending $241,380 on ads over 11 days while Pritzker is dropping $177,719 over five days.
Not long ago, Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner said he wouldn’t have done anything differently when it came to the state’s response to deadly Legionnaires’ disease outbreaks at the Quincy veterans’ home.
But since those February comments, the Republican governor has, in fact, adopted a dramatically different approach to the public health crisis that has contributed to the deaths of 13 Illinois Veterans Home residents since 2015. And Rauner now has an entire legislative portfolio about to be delivered to his doorstep aimed at fixing the problem that’s beset his re-election campaign.
Before lawmakers ended their spring session Thursday, eight different measures won final legislative approval, headlined by a $53.1 million appropriation in the state budget to begin rebuilding the state’s largest and oldest veterans’ facility in Quincy. That’s where there have been outbreaks of Legionnaires’ — a form of waterborne pneumonia — in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018.
Lawmakers also voted to require residents and families be notified within one day of an outbreak of Legionnaires’ or other infectious diseases. And they voted to give families who lost loved ones at the home to Legionnaires’ a potential legal windfall, raising the state’s legal liability in those cases from $100,000 to $2 million.
* Pritzker campaign…
“While Bruce Rauner puts press stunts before our Veterans’ wellbeing, lawmakers passed a stack of bills to crack down on his fatal mismanagement,” said Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh. “Thirteen of our nation’s heroes and their spouses died on Rauner’s watch, and it’s time for this failed governor to do his job and protect our Veterans.”
* Other bills…
* Can medical marijuana help combat Illinois’ opioid crisis?: The plan also eliminates some barriers to access of the state’s restrictive medical marijuana program. It would remove requirements that patients undergo background checks and fingerprint scans, which critics argue disproportionately prevents lower-income and minority communities from obtaining the drug.
* Legislature passes bill to improve insurance coverage for mental health, addiction: Among other things, it would prohibit private insurers from requiring prior authorization for medications to treat addiction, and bar them from requiring patients try less expensive medications for addiction before stepping up to more expensive ones. Those requirements already apply to Medicaid managed care organizations. … The Kennedy Forum Illinois and several other groups released the results of a survey last year showing disparities in coverage in Illinois. According to that report, about 59 percent of hospitals, psychiatrists and other providers surveyed said Medicaid managed care organizations “always” or “often” denied coverage for inpatient treatment for addiction and mental health issues. Medicaid managed care organizations are insurers that administer benefits for Medicaid, a state- and federally funded insurance program for the poor.
* Governor to consider hundreds of bills passed this session: Budget aside, for the first year of the 100th General Assembly, which was the 2017 legislative year, the House passed 380 bills while the Senate passed 235 bills for a combined total of 615 bills. For both 2017 and so far in 2018, 1,226 pieces of legislation passed. All together, the House and Senate combined filed 12,812 bills and resolutions for consideration.
* On the verge of big advances in political ethics in scandal-plagued Springfield: But now, if House Bill 138 is signed into law as it was approved, any findings of questionable behavior by Madigan or the other legislative leaders will bypass them and go to the commission. The leaders can respond only as any other subject of an investigation would. That’s big progress.
* Illinois tamps down ‘pension spiking’ for teachers; educators fear disincentive for hiring: But teachers unions and others say the new system will not only force down pension rates — depriving districts of a big selling point in attracting new teachers who might not be enticed by the modest salaries alone — but also could have an impact on things such as extracurricular activities. For example, they say, districts might be hesitant to let teachers coach school teams or take substantial promotions near the ends of their careers, because it could put the district on the hook for pension penalties if the extra pay equals more than 3 percent of the original salary.
* Lake County waterway dredging, flood mitigation efforts get boost from General Assembly: The latest legislative session in Springfield delivered a few benefits to Lake County, including a new law that will help the Fox Waterway Agency become more independent, while new funding approved this week by the General Assembly includes flood-damage grants for several areas around the county.
* Press Release: Illinois State Treasurer Michael Frerichs today called on Governor Bruce Rauner to sign House Bill 4922 into law to put a stop to companies that issue rebate cards that charge dormancy or inactivity fees and avoid unclaimed property laws. … House Bill 4922 recently passed the Illinois House and Senate with bipartisan support. The legislation amends the Consumer Fraud and Deceptive Business Practices Act to prohibit the sale or issuance of a rebate card that charges dormancy fees and almost all other post-issuance fees. The legislation was sponsored by Senator Cristina Castro (D-Elgin) and Representative Theresa Mah (D-Chicago).
* No downgrade by S&P, but no real praise, either…
Timely enactment of a fiscal 2019 budget in Illinois is consistent with the stable outlook S&P Global Ratings currently maintains on the state’s credit rating. At ‘BBB-’, however, the general obligation rating incorporates our view of the state’s longer-term vulnerabilities and remains the lowest possible rating within the investment grade categories. Among the state’s leading credits risks are its fiscal structure, which in our view, remains out of balance, a still-elevated unpaid bill backlog, absence of a budget reserve, and distressed pension funding levels. While the emergence of a more collaborative budget process has potentially constructive credit implications, the substance of the package largely represents an extension of the status quo. […]
Timely passage of a fiscal 2019 budget in Illinois underscores the near-term stability of the state’s credit outlook that emerged in July 2017. Our stable outlook reflected that following its 2017 tax increases, Illinois approached fiscal 2019 with a significantly smaller fiscal gap and much diminished liquidity-related concerns.
The benefits from the tax hike are mentioned several times in the full report.
* Past-due bills are still a problem…
Crucially, proceeds from the state’s November 2017 bond issuance enabled the comptroller to pay delinquent Medicaid bills and, in the process, ameliorate the threat of federal court intervention over the state’s cash management. Apart from the bonding strategy, however, which in our view amounts to financing state operations with long-term debt, policymakers have made little headway against the bill backlog. Additional progress would almost certainly require the politically unpalatable combination of lower spending and more revenue (higher taxes). Even after the backlog borrowing, which leveraged federal Medicaid matching funds, the comptroller reports a current backlog balance of $7.1 billion at the end of fiscal 2018. This, along with the state’s long-term liabilities, precariously balanced operating budget, and lack of budget reserve, continue to weigh on the state’s prospects for a higher rating.
Eventually, those bills will have to be paid.
* The budget holes…
The budget identifies $38.5 billion in general funds resources to support a like amount of corresponding expenditures, ending with a negligible $15 million balance. In our view, however, the budget falls short of achieving structural balance, relying on $800 million in interfund borrowing and $270 million of net proceeds from the sale of the state-owned Thompson Center. The state is also liable for up to $400 million in previously unaccounted-for costs related to prior step increases the courts have ruled are due to state employees. Furthermore, it’s possible, in our view, that strong tax receipt trends, $200 million above the prior forecast in fiscal 2018 and $160 million in 2019, partly reflect a nonrecurring windfall generated by taxpayers accelerating income into 2017 in response to provisions of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Assuming this begins to dissipate in 2019 and beyond, the state’s fiscal condition is susceptible to erosion. The economy itself is also a risk. According to our forecast, which is in line with the consensus view, GDP growth will peak this year and then begin to decelerate with any such slowdown now potentially accentuated in Illinois by the effects of retaliatory tariffs placed on state exports by U.S. trading partners.
* And not good news for the longer term…
On its present trajectory, the margin by which the state’s fiscal capacity will fall short of accommodating the scheduled increases in payment obligations will continue to widen. State fixed costs—including debt service, pension contributions, and outlays for employee health benefits (e.g., OPEB)—already consume 31% of general fund expenditures, more than twice the median for states. As a share of expenditures funded by state resources (excluding federal aid), Illinois’ fixed cost burden is even higher, at 34% of general funds outlays. Based on projections from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, we estimate that by fiscal 2025, pension contributions from the state’s general funds will increase by $1.7 billion, or 24%..
* This ProPublica story produced with the Atlantic is a must-read…
Here’s how the system is supposed to work: After children are admitted to a psychiatric hospital, staff psychiatrists assess them and try to stabilize them, develop treatment plans that usually involve managing their medications, and then initiate a course of treatment to be followed with an outside doctor. After that, they’re typically released. Psychiatric hospitals are designed for short-term stays—days or a couple weeks—and staff often start planning for a discharge the day a child arrives.
Any long-term treatment is supposed to occur elsewhere, during appointments with outside doctors or at residential treatment centers, where psychiatrists and therapists have time to develop relationships with the child and address the deeper issues that led to the hospitalization and DCFS’s involvement
I analyzed thousands of pages of confidential records and obtained data from DCFS under the Freedom of Information Act covering all of the nearly 6,000 psychiatric hospitalizations of children in DCFS’s care between 2015 and 2017. In that period, nearly 30 percent of all children in DCFS care who were hospitalized were held beyond medical necessity, for a collective total of more than 27,000 days—that’s nearly 75 years—waiting and watching the outside world from behind the thick panes of hospital safety windows because DCFS has too few beds in other facilities where they could be more appropriately treated. On average, more than one in five days spent in a psychiatric hospital, the records indicated, were not medically necessary.
In the vast majority of those cases, children were held long past when they were cleared for release, not just a day or two beyond. Eighty percent of the more than 800 children whose stays became medically unnecessary between 2015 and 2017 were held for 10 days or more beyond when they should have been released. More than 40 percent were confined for a month or longer; 15 percent had to wait two months or longer.
In 2014, 88 psychiatric hospital admissions went beyond medical necessity, but that figure jumped to 246 the following year—a surge DCFS has struggled to explain, but that officials at the agency suggested could be due to the cases becoming more complex. Since then, the number of those admissions has continued to rise, though more gradually—from 292 in 2016 to 301 last year, according to DCFS statistics.
The result: Every day since July 2015 through the end of December 2017, at least nine children—and sometimes dozens—were unnecessarily held in psychiatric hospitals. There was a girl who spent so much time in one that hospital staff were asked to bring her a winter coat. She had been admitted in the summer.
Trump is considering commuting former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence.
This @ChicagoMag piece reminded us: Blagojevich denied 93 percent of pardon or clemency requests during his six years as governor:https://t.co/ZwFALBuMKl
— ProPublica Illinois (@ProPublicaIL) May 31, 2018
In the past, Blagojevich was accused of having unbridled optimism that at times blinded him to inconvenient truths. That doesn’t seem to have faded. Even though he’s now down to a long-shot appeal to the Supreme Court, he is convinced that he will be vindicated: “I still believe, ultimately, we’ll prevail.”
If that attempt fails, Blagojevich’s only hope would be a presidential pardon or clemency. I point out the irony: In the six years he was governor, Blagojevich denied 93 percent of the 1,024 such requests he considered and let 2,800 pile up without action, causing a massive backlog. (By comparison, Pat Quinn acted on nearly 5,000 and granted more than one-third.) “You’re right,” Blagojevich says. “I didn’t do nearly enough. I regret that very much. I wish I knew what I know now. The sentences are extremely merciless. I’ve learned there’s a lot of oversentencing.”
In my opinion, he denied and ignored those requests because he feared the political consequences. He was a former assistant state’s attorney and wanted to look “tough on crime.” And now he begs for mercy while proclaiming his innocence.
I just can’t with this guy.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Gov. Rauner was asked about possible presidential clemency for Blagojevich today. His response…
Blagojevich’s case and behavior has been reviewed by judges, many judges, including the Supreme Court, by many legal experts, many attorneys.
They’ve all come to the conclusion that Blagojevich is where he belongs and he should stay where he’s at. So, I’ll leave it at that.
Rauner and Democrat J.B. Pritzker may have one thing in common: they don’t believe President Donald Trump should grant imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich a commutation.
Pritzker’s campaign said he believes “the former governor is where he belongs.” […]
The Pritzker campaign also told the Sun-Times on Tuesday that “JB thinks there’s plenty of other things that Donald Trump should be focusing on,” while acknowledging that it’s up to Trump whether to pardon or commute his sentence.
Imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich filed official paperwork Tuesday asking President Donald Trump to commute his 14-year prison sentence on sweeping corruption charges.
Every day my dad rolled up his sleeves and went to work. 35 years pouring concrete, driving a snowplow, operating a backhoe. He helped shape who I am and how I serve.
As Macoupin County Board Chairman, I balanced the budget by cutting pay and pensions for elected officials.
In the Senate, I’ve refused a pension; said no budget, no pay; and I’m working to freeze property taxes.
Families here work hard. They deserve someone who rolls up their sleeves and goes to work for them.
Manar is up against Christian County GOP Chairman Seth McMillan. The race is expected to see 7-figure spending by both sides, so getting an early start is probably a good idea. Also, I don’t expect Manar will stay on an exclusively positive track for very long.
Most of the supposed savings come from two completely voluntary “pension buyouts.” First, vested but inactive Tier 1 pensioners – meaning employees hired before 2011 – are given the option of receiving 60 percent of the net present value of their pension annuity in a lump sum payment. Lawmakers claim this will save $41 million.
Second, the largest portion of the expected savings – $381.9 million – comes from an optional cost of living adjustment, or COLA, buyout. This would give Tier 1 members the option to trade their 3 percent compounding increases for a 1.5 percent simple annual increase, in exchange for an immediate payment of 70 percent of the net value of their future increases under the higher formula.
Lawmakers plan to issue up to $1 billion in bonds to pay for those buyouts now, since they don’t have the money on hand. The state previously borrowed $17.2 billion to make pension payments, which will cost $25.8 billion to pay off in the long run.
The problem? Lawmakers are essentially counting on state workers to voluntarily cut their own pensions.
According to state Rep. Mark Batinick, R-Plainfield, the savings are calculated using a 22 percent uptake rate on the pension buyouts, which is the same uptake rate as a similar plan passed in Missouri. Unfortunately, the situation in Missouri is very different from the situation in Illinois. Illinois’ Supreme Court has declared that the pension protection clause protects not only earned benefits, but future increases in those benefits as well. Missouri does not operate under this restriction.
Some pensioners may see the writing on the wall and decide that they want to take their retirement security out of the hands of politicians, in case the pension system goes insolvent. However, many state workers may also be unwilling to give up a constitutionally guaranteed benefit increase for a much smaller guaranteed payment now. That makes the Missouri uptake rate unrealistic for Illinois.
If significantly fewer Illinois workers accept the buyout options than expected, lawmakers will have a hole in the budget that could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.
* Rep. Mark Batinick responds…
The same IPI that has stated our pension costs are unsustainable, won’t be paid, and has talked about bankruptcy is now arguing that Illinois employees won’t want to take up a buyout at the same rate as Missouri employees? That’s a stretch.
In the 2nd year of the program in Missouri, the take up rate has actually increased to 25%
The bulk of our savings comes from the COLA reduction buyout. That buyout is at 70% compared to Missouri’s 60%. Again, this should increase the take-up rate.
The COLA reduction is a partial buyout, not an all or nothing scenario. Because our benefits are generous the buyouts will be too. A large amount of our employees will be able to keep their base annuity and get a six figure check simply for taking a reduced COLA. It is a “have your cake and eat it too situation.” Plus, because of the nature of the compound COLA retirees currently get their greatest benefits at the very end of their lives when they are less likely to be able to enjoy it. Pulling some of that money forward will make sense to a whole lot of people.
This program essentially takes part of our defined benefit pension liability and turns it into a defined contribution. That is the exact type of program IPI has advocated for four years. I’ve spent almost 3 years running real world examples with real people. Once fully implemented, I expect the take up rate to exceed projections. My biggest concern is simply getting the systems to execute the program quickly and efficiently.
* Gov. Rauner is kicking off the festivities by taking the Blagojevich route, which is mighty interesting since President Trump is considering letting the man out of prison and Rauner’s Blagojevich TV ads during the primary didn’t really hurt Pritzker all that much. I mean, the dude won by 20 points after Rauner spent millions.
Then again, general election audiences are very different than Democratic primary audiences, and it’s well known that the Rauner folks have been polling and focus-grouping the heck out of this topic. And the spot most definitely takes a wicked shot at Pritzker, which his GOP base will appreciate. Press release…
Today, the Rauner campaign is launching the first TV ad of the general election, and latest in a series highlighting JB Pritzker’s conversations with corrupt ex-governor Rod Blagojevich, federal inmate #40892-424, caught on FBI wiretaps.
The ad features Pritzker and Blagojevich talking about potentially appointing Barack Obama’s controversial spiritual leader Reverend Jeremiah Wright to the former president’s open Senate seat.
Pritzker quipped how “hilarious” it would be, followed by both of them rounding out their conversation with a rousing “God D@mn America!”
Not a lot of context there. But the patriotic theme could take hold. Again, this is a sop to the base, which is absolutely fine for this point in the campaign.
* Background text from a GOP operative…
Only 16% of people in the state blame Bruce Rauner solely for our problems. An overwhelming majority blame Mike Madigan — to whom Pritzker has solidly hitched his wagon.
* On to the next one. Press release…
Today, the JB Pritzker campaign released the first in a new series of TV ads that will document how Bruce Rauner has failed Illinoisans across the state as governor.
The first ad in the series, “Brent,” highlights how Bruce Rauner’s failure to pass a budget led to the halt of road construction and 20,000 workers being laid off at the height of construction season. Learn more about the Rauner Failed Me campaign at www.RaunerFailedMe.com.
“Bruce Rauner’s failed leadership has had a real and lasting impact on hardworking people across our state and after three and a half years in office, it’s clear this governor has nothing positive to talk about,” said JB Pritzker. “Working families have been lied to, let down, and failed by Rauner for nearly four years — and it’s time their stories are heard.”
* If you wanted Pritzker to draw serious blood with his first ad, this definitely ain’t it. They’re trying to build a narrative, though, so we’ll see. Actual general election voters may not want this thing to start out as an 11 on a scale of 1-10 and the ad does tell a story about how a real person was hurt by the governor’s choices.
Even so, it looks to my eyes like an overreaction to Hillary Clinton’s unexpected blue-collar losses in the “Rust Belt” states. Illinois isn’t Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Pennsylvania or Ohio, however. Hillary won Illinois by 17 points.
The spot seems like a too-careful-by-half, overpaid consultant’s ad and not what the relatively small number of people who are actually paying attention right now really want (which is what the Rauner ad most definitely is - a vicious assault). Instead of kicking it all off with some nasty red meat for a few days, they’ve taken the safely bland route from the get-go. They may live to regret that choice. If you’re gonna say you’ll “protect” the state from President Trump and Gov. Rauner then you need to show you’re up to the task. This ad most definitely falls short. I’ve been warning for months that Pritzker may not be tough enough to win this thing, and his inaugural ad, in my opinion, only bolsters that prediction. But, hey, they’ve got reams of polling data and endless focus group experience and I don’t.
My name is Brent Williams, and I’m a proud union laborer. I’m one of the guys that works construction out there on the highways you drive by. Last summer, in the middle of our busy season, because of Bruce Rauner not passing a budget, I was told my job was being shut down. We just bought a house. I need to be working. When I’m not working, I’m not making money, and roads and bridges aren’t being fixed. Along with me, there were 20,000 other workers that were laid off. I don’t know that Bruce Rauner does think of me. Why would we do it for four more years?
