Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » NBC Poll: Pritzker leads Rauner by 16 points
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
NBC Poll: Pritzker leads Rauner by 16 points

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Exclusive NBC News/Marist poll

Pritzker 46
Rauner 30
Jackson 6
McCann 4

They didn’t say during the broadcast, but that would be 14 percent undecided [. So Pritzker’s lead would be greater than the undecideds.

Rauner’s unfavorable rating is at 52 percent, according to the poll. His unfavorable rating is about twice the size of his favorables.

Pritzker is at 38 favorable, 35 unfavorable.

Pritzker leads among women and men. Pritzker also leads everywhere but the collar counties. But Rauner is only at 40 percent in the collars.

* From the story just posted online

In addition to the race for governor, 49 percent of respondents preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 35 percent preferred Republicans in charge. The state has at least three tight U.S. House races slated for November.

The results also indicated 56 percent of registered voters in Illinois disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job so far. In 2016, Trump got 38 percent of the vote in Illinois.

“President Trump and his job rating at 31 percent is dragging down Republicans up and down the ticket potentially,” Murray said.

Twenty-seven percent of Illinois voters named economy and jobs as the most important factor in their vote. Another 19 percent said health care, 14 percent said immigration and 11 percent said federal taxes and spending, according to the poll.

* The poll was taken August 12-16. But this is odd and I don’t understand it

The NBC/Marist poll of Illinois was conducted Aug. 12-16 of 831 adults (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.2 percentage points) and 734 registered voters (plus-minus 4.4 percentage points).

I’ll ask for clarification.

…Adding… The crosstabs are here, along with an answer to my question.

…Adding… The crosstabs show the results shown above are for registered voters and undecideds are at 13 percent. “Other” is at 2 percent.

       

44 Comments
  1. - Anon62704 - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:13 pm:

    Toplines and sample description: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNews_MaristPoll_IllinoisAnnotatedQuestionnaire_August2018_1808201129.pdf


  2. - Anon62704 - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:15 pm:

    Even more: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Illinois_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_August-2018_1808201128.pdf#page=3

    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Illinois_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_August-2018_1808201128.pdf#page=1


  3. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:16 pm:

    Wow… Pritzker leads downstate? Reelection is doomed. But the real story is Jackson leads McCann. I guess any publicity (even domestic abuse) is good publicity, eh?


  4. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:17 pm:

    ===But the real story is Jackson leads McCann===

    I have a feeling that will change soon.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:20 pm:

    The whopping 52% disapproval… Rauner needs to change that if he hopes to make up 16 points.

    The polling at 30%, wow, Rauner is a known incumbent at 30%…


  6. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:22 pm:

    ===“President Trump and his job rating at 31 percent is dragging down Republicans up and down the ticket potentially,” Murray said.

    It’s a nice quote, but according to those numbers Rauner is less popular than Trump in terms of approval.

    Ouch.


  7. - Real - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:23 pm:

    This is Pritzker with a 16 point lead BEFORE the impact of any Obama ad’s in support of Pritzker. Wait until another month or so and see the gap widen.


  8. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:24 pm:

    — I guess any publicity (even domestic abuse) is good publicity, eh?

    He’s identified as the libertarian so people are supporting him as an alternative and probably haven’t heard of him. That said, random white guy with a beard won 10% of the vote in 2006 with Blagojevich running.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:24 pm:

    The Pritzker 46% is pretty solid of a foundation going into Labor Day, the 16 points is enough of a lead to continue the focus on GOTV and making sure the structural foundation of the ground game is tended to with much detail.


  10. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:25 pm:

    ===That said, random white guy with a beard won 10% of the vote in 2006 with Blagojevich running.===

    Never downplay the political acumen of Rich Whitey.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:36 pm:

    Rauner needs Trump.

    Trump is polling worse than Rauner.

    Rauner isn’t even close to 40%

    Rod would call this an “up” day.


  12. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:38 pm:

    ==So Pritzker’s lead would be greater than the undecideds.==

    But not greater than Undecideds + Third Party, and I think Rauner will claw some of the third party voters back by Election Day.

    OTOH, I’m not sure I would predict the undecideds to break en masse toward the incumbent…


  13. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:38 pm:

    Wonder if Rauner feels like giving a 👍 on this news.


  14. - Anon - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:46 pm:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if some Republicans start to throw Rauner under the bus considering he politically is done.


  15. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:57 pm:

    I like the positive Pritzker ads, where he’s in the ad, talking about job creation and paying for school breakfasts. Those make me feel better, instead of just attack ads.

    Just stay positive and work real hard at voter turnout and grassroots stuff, because complacency can be lethal. Polls guarantee nothing, as we’ve seen in the last two election cycles.


  16. - Not a Billionaire - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:17 pm:

    The republicans are under both the Rauner and Trump bus. The only question is how many US and state house races flip and if Rauner decides to stop wasting money.


  17. - Sue - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:18 pm:

    Do why is this Bozo spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose. Maybe he could donate some to the State


  18. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:18 pm:

    The Trump/Rauner numbers among self-described Independents and Moderates are absolutely brutal.


  19. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:18 pm:

    If this poll is remotely true, Rauner’s attack ads are failing bigly. Now what?


  20. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:21 pm:

    ===why is this … spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose. Maybe he could donate some to the State===

    - Sue -

    You think Rauner is done?


  21. - DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:24 pm:

    I would have voted Libertarian but that guy is a super super jerk. Anyway I hear Italy is nice in the fall.


  22. - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:38 pm:

    ==Do why is this Bozo spending==

    Well at least it’s a step up from your usual juvenile comments about how fat Pritzker is. So…..progress?


  23. - Real - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 7:19 pm:

    It seems like Rauner messed with the wrong one as Madigan is ensuring that he is destroyed in this election. Lol


  24. - Not a Billionaire - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 7:31 pm:

    I think a lot of Republicans messed with the wrong people after today’s events.


  25. - City Zen - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 7:54 pm:

    ==Pritzker also leads everywhere but the collar counties.==

    You mean the counties that support the rest of the state? Who’da thunk?

    https://capitolfax.com/2018/08/10/study-all-of-downstate-receives-more-from-the-state-than-it-pays-in/


  26. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:04 pm:

    —Rich Whitey.

    That’s priceless.


  27. - Ryan - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:25 pm:

    So, you’re saying Benjamin Winderweedle has a chance?


  28. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:28 pm:

    ===spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose===

    You’re saying he can’t lose? I’m guessing he’s not gonna take your word for it.


  29. - Jibba - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:29 pm:

    CZ…Rauner is only 40% in the collars, so I think your anti tax wave is only a ripple.


  30. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 9:17 pm:

    ==Do why is this Bozo spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose.==

    Because if he didn’t you’d complain that he was taking the state for granted.

    ==Maybe he could donate some to the State==

    If you’re worried about political parties becoming too dependent on billionaires- and I like JB, but I am- we shouldn’t make the state dependent on them, too.


  31. - City Zen - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 9:33 pm:

    ==I think your anti tax wave is only a ripple.==

    Ripples are preferred. Waves cause erosion.


  32. - Anon - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 9:48 pm:

    At this point in the election cycle, shouldn’t polls be of likely voters?


  33. - Frank talks - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 11:19 pm:

    This in a nutshell says a lot about this race. Even if the numbers are a little off.
    Rauner is disliked and has been running an entire campaign on how to make people dislike the other guy more. People have seen the freakishly weird obsession with Madigan and just aren’t/can’t buy that everything under the sun is his fault.
    As I stated a month ago at some point people want to like the people they vote for. Bruce is not likable he should have been working on improving his own image to get his numbers up this last 2 months then brought JB down to earth in September and October.


  34. - Question - Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 11:29 pm:

    -rich whitey-

    You gotta go back 8 years for that reference. Kudos.


  35. - Not It - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 8:41 am:

    This Governor completely blew it. He had huge opportunity and potential, but refused to negotiate or compromise. Total waste of four years.

    Every issue was “I’m 100% and you’re 100% wrong.”


  36. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 8:57 am:

    JB knows he can lose which is why he is spending the money. He is a tax and spend Madigoon, and won’t even deny it. JB is so in Madigan’s pocket he will spend an extra 100 million to win, rather than disavow the speaker.

    As long as Rauner makes this race against Madigan he has a punchers chance.


  37. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:02 am:

    Among liberals, 24% have an unfavorable impression of JB Pritzker.

    Among conservatives, 41% have an unfavorable impression of Bruce Rauner.

    If I were looking for evidence of an ‘enthusiasm gap’ in the governor’s race, I think I’d start there.

    – MrJM


  38. - Real - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:08 am:

    I’m happy to say that only 5 percent of blacks support Rauner. White democrats need to educate there republican family members on Rauner. He is behind everywhere else except for the white vote.


  39. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:08 am:

    ===He is a tax and spend Madigoon===

    So, what would you call Rauner.

    Signed a budget with a 32% tax increase, and it’s $1.2 billion out of whack.

    But, please, go on and talk about tax and spend, lol.

    To the Post,

    If yuh think about the monies spent by Rauner to get Pritzker’s negative me underwater… and Pritzker is still (barely) above water… and Rauner remains well below water, not just under water… yikes. Rauner has to get likable. Fast.


  40. - slow down - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:11 am:

    Stating the obvious but Rauner’s entire strategy has been to attack Pritzker and that is not a rationale for reelection.


  41. - Real - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:12 am:

    As long as Rauner makes this race against Madigan he has a punchers chance.

    -Where have you been the past 4 years? Rauner has been campaigning against Madigan since he has been in office. Its time for you to realize that just because a lot of people dislike Madigan that it means they want Rauner. Polls show they dislike both and that Rauner is the only one between them on a statewide ballot in November.


  42. - Montrose - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:14 am:

    “As long as Rauner makes this race against Madigan he has a punchers chance.”

    You say that as that has not been Rauner’s entire strategy to date. These numbers tell us that strategy ain’t working so great.


  43. - Real - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:17 am:

    *that it doesn’t mean they want Rauner.


  44. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:21 am:

    ==JB is so in Madigan’s pocket he will spend an extra 100 million to win, rather than disavow the speaker.==

    I’m not sure what you mean when you say “disavow the Speaker”, but a big part of Rauner’s “Because Madigan” strategy has always been to get Democrats to attack each other- because every minute you spend attacking Madigan is a minute you don’t spend attacking Rauner. JB’s team recognized that trap early.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* The Waukegan City Clerk was railroaded
* Whatever happened, the city has a $40 million budget hole it didn't disclose until now
* Manar gives state agencies budget guidance: Cut, cut, cut
* Roundup: Ex-Chicago Ald. Danny Solis testifies in Madigan corruption trial
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Live coverage
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller