Outside money starts flowing
Thursday, Sep 20, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tina Sfondeles at the Sun-Times…
Planned Parenthood on Thursday plans to announce a six-figure ad buy to help bolster Democrat Sean Casten’s campaign against incumbent U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., in an effort to help Democrats win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives this fall.
Planned Parenthood Votes, the organization’s federal PAC will spend about $400,000 to reach out to more than 110,000 voters on behalf of Casten, a political newcomer and former clean energy businessman.
The plan, they say, is to educate voters about Roskam’s record on women’s health. “It’s more important than ever to flip the House to a pro-reproductive health majority,” Planned Parenthood Votes said. […]
The buy will include digital ads and mailers to begin Thursday through Election Day, which will be focused on “educating these voters about Roskam’s votes to ‘defund’ Planned Parenthood, repeal the Affordable Care Act and his desire to ban abortion.”
* Washington Post…
The Congressional Leadership Fund said Thursday it will spend nearly $3 million on behalf of three incumbents representing traditionally Republican-heavy districts who are facing aggressive challenges this year.
In downstate Illinois, CLF is planning to spend $1 million to reelect Rep. Rodney Davis and defeat Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan. […]
(I)n several races where CLF has spent big, recent polls have shown Democrats maintaining leads or keeping races too close for GOP comfort.
CLF is also adding additional reservations on behalf of incumbents Mike Bost of Illinois ($600,000)
So, they’re worried about Londrigan now?
You’ll know things are totally getting out of hand if CLF starts spending big in Randy Hultgren’s district.
CLF has been in the Roskam district for months.
* Related…
* Kelly says Congress needs new leaders. Bost asks why he’s taking old leaders’ money.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:33 pm:
==So, they’re worried about Londrigan now?==
They should be. She’s drawing good crowds at all her town hall things.
- Wpeac - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:52 pm:
Yep. I went to one of her things and it was packed to the gills. I somehow doubt Davis is generating the same enthusiasm.
- Howdy - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:59 pm:
Londrigan is a woman running against a man who sided with Donald Trump. Without spending a nickel, that alone with put you in the ballgame. She has done a good job to date with the students at the U of I.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:01 pm:
==I somehow doubt Davis is generating the same enthusiasm.==
Weird part is, he’s not even trying. I don’t know if he could get 50-100 people at a public event, but he refuses to even have them.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:02 pm:
As of today, 538 gives Londrigan a 1 in 3 chance to win and a projected 48.5% vote share. That ain’t no joke.
- Roman - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:07 pm:
Set aside what it does for Casten. If all that Planned Parenthood money goes into field operations and succeeds in turning out thousands of voters who usually don’t show in midterms, that’s bad news for the GOP state legislators in that district.
- illini - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:09 pm:
Is Mike Bost not yet aware of the fact that every time he opens his mouth that he reveals yet another aspect of his real hypocrisy?
Could this be one of the reasons he refuses to have town hall meetings? And will there ever be any televised or public debates for this race?
- Jibba - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:14 pm:
Is this what it will take for Davis to hold a town hall or meet in public with anyone who might disagree with him? But really, he’s bipartisan, amirite?
- wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:32 pm:
–She has done a good job to date with the students at the U of I.–
Historically, Illinois college students are the Moby Dick of off-year elections. Pursue at the peril of your own sanity.
If the time ever comes when you can vote with your phone, watch out.
- Nick Name - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:47 pm:
===I somehow doubt Davis is generating the same enthusiasm.===
You have to hold town halls before you can generate enthusiasm at them. I don’t believe Davis has held any. And he hasn’t held office hours for constituents since May of 2017.
- The Dude Abides - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 2:02 pm:
Wow. I’ve been impressed by how well Londrigan has done so far. I suspect that internal GOP polling is showing this closer than they would like. I’m not ready to predict a Londrigan upset yet but I sense momentum on her side.
- Precinct Captain - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 2:05 pm:
The Sheldon Adelson spigot.
- knownothing - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 2:35 pm:
Londrigan must be doing better than I expected. Granted, I’m in CU, but I’ve seen exactly 1 Davis yard sign and literally hundreds of Londrigan ones. He’s going to have to hope the more rural parts of the district don’t realize how hard he’s screwing them over or he’s got a real chance at losing a seat he won by 20 points 2 years ago.
- ZC - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 3:03 pm:
A couple of things here. One, the greater Midwest was the most “flippable” part of the country in 2016, with the most Obama counties to Trump counties, but that means it could flip back, too. Maybe there’s something to that downhome aw-shucks no-drama Midwestern sensibility. With Clinton no longer representing the Democrats, Trump may be a real anchor on Republicans in many parts of this region.
Two, unlike some other states, there’s a candidate-money-producing ATM at the top of the Democratic party in IL this year, and one that feels increasingly confident about his own chances, so this might be an incentive for him to cash in and win goodwill by helping with turnout downballot.
I don’t know if any Republican in the IL US House right now not last-named “Shimkus” or “LaHood” should feel wholly safe. I’d be shocked if Kinzinger lost, but it’s the kind of cycle where there’s gonna be some incumbent somewhere in a poorly-polled district where everyone’s like, whaaaat. His district’s just not -that- solidly “R.”
- theCardinal - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 4:41 pm:
Downstate JB does not make a lot of folks feel all warm and fuzzy but one thing for sure is He aint BR . The dollars he is spending might not equate to up ballot votes for D challegers in congressional races. But when they get to Gov on the ballot that is another story.
- BlueRoom - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 5:15 pm:
I think Randy Hultgren is in more trouble than he lets on. The last polling was back in April and he was only up by 4 points even then.
- HawkeyeForEver - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 6:25 pm:
Here are FiveThirtyEight’s current “Deluxe” chances of victory (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#deluxe):
Bost 53.7%
Kelly 46.3%
Roskam 58.7%
Casten 41.3%
Davis 71.1%
Londrigan 28.9%
Hultgren 75.8%
Underwood 24.2%
- lollinois - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 6:35 pm:
Davis is going to need a whole lot more money to stay safe. If he stays true to form and avoids any sort of event where he would have to face his constituents, then his only hope is to flood the airways with enough “I’m bipartisan, honest!” propaganda that enough people believe it.
- Nick - Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 7:15 pm:
I see this as catch-up mostly. IL-13 has never especially less competitive than IL-12, yet it seems everyone expected Davis to be especially more safe than Bost.
I frankly also just don’t really know what Davis is doing? Like, I’ve seen an ad or two, but I don’t ever really hear of him campaigning.