Random numbers on a random day
Tuesday, Oct 30, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Ad Age…
TV and radio DMAs (designated market areas) cross state lines in various parts of the country, and much of the time that works out just fine—particularly for brand advertising and merchants that routinely draw customers from a wide region. But when it comes to political advertising, an ad for a local candidate in State X is, of course, useless for a person who lives and votes in neighboring State Y. Yet this person still has to endure the message because of DMA bleed-over.
According to an Ad Age Datacenter analysis of political-ad spending from Kantar Media, the problem is most maddeningly acute in the St. Louis DMA. From January 2017 through Election Day next month (including advance bookings), 47 percent of the spending on TV and radio political ads for races tracked by Kantar directed at the Missouri city and its suburbs are for Illinois candidates. That equates to $29 million of the $62.1 million in Republican and Democratic spending in the St. Louis market (both by candidates themselves and groups, such as PACs, supporting them) tallied by Datacenter.
Illinoisans make up 695,117 out of the region’s 2,916,447 people. So, that works out to 31 percent of the population. In other words, Illinoisans are less than a third of the area’s population, but our candidates are spending almost half the money on STL TV.
* Advertising Analytics…
* Meanwhile…
As of Tuesday, about 600,000 ballots had been cast either at the polls or via mail. That’s double the number cast as of this time last week, according to the Illinois State Board of Elections.
This year’s number is creeping up on the early voting tally from 2014, which was about 800,000, but still has a way to go to match the 1.9 million early votes cast in 2016.
* Our next number is 3…
Only Rhode Island, Delaware and Alaska give their attorneys general exclusive criminal jurisdiction, according to the National Association of Attorneys General. In six other states, Connecticut among them, attorneys general have no criminal jurisdiction, the group says. The rest, Illinois included, impose varying levels of impediments.
* Speaking of the Madigan family…
Friends of MJM has raised more than $11.5 million since the House Speaker busted the contribution caps in August. Madigan’s personal committee has transferred out about $4 million in that same time period.
…Adding… Make that $5 million. MJM transferred another $1 million to DPI just now.
…Adding… One more number…
- A Young Person - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:27 pm:
The obvious flaws of the campaign finance reform of 2010 now fully exposed. It’s possible to get unlimited sums of money into “hard money” candidate committees. Either have Proft spend on tv ads, lifting the caps for you, or have Madigan bust his own caps, take unlimited cash, and have Dem Majority spend in-kinds on you. Once you allow unlimited spending anywhere, you get unlimited spending everywhere.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:29 pm:
–This year’s number is creeping up on the early voting tally from 2014, which was about 800,000, but still has a way to go to match the 1.9 million early votes cast in 2016.–
Good news for Republican candidates, I think.
- Not a Billionaire - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:29 pm:
Wonder if the ads are having any effect on MO Senate or are too Illinois specific. If I were national dems I would want Pritzger to run some ads against Republicans in general.
- Not a Billionaire - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:30 pm:
Btw Quincy market is all MO Senate IL gov and the Hammond Curtis state rep race.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:35 pm:
===Once you allow unlimited spending anywhere, you get unlimited spending everywhere. ===
And since you can’t legally stop rich people from spending their own money on their campaigns, do you have a better idea?
- ChanceMcCall - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:03 pm:
Would it be accurate to compare JB to Oscar K. Allen and Madigan to Huey Long?
- Stones - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:17 pm:
Interesting the FL race is so high. The primary election was August 28.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:20 pm:
–Would it be accurate to compare JB to Oscar K. Allen and Madigan to Huey Long?–
Right. Billionaire Pritzker has dropped $170 million-plus for the honor of being Madigan’s stooge.
You’re mistaking Rauner/tronc propaganda for reality.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:21 pm:
ChanceMcCall-Would it be accurate to compare Rauner to a failed Governor?
- cover - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:38 pm:
Nevada has the 5th costliest race? I realize that’s a hotly contested battleground state, but still…
- Values Voters - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:06 pm:
@A Young Person
Illinois passed campaign finance reform in 2009.
The US Supreme Court gutted it when they decided Citizens United in 2010.
- G'Kar - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:27 pm:
When I lived in Carbondale the three networks, ABC, CBS, and NBC were in Illinois, Missouri, and Kentucky. We were bombarded by political ads for races in all three states.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:50 pm:
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:21 pm:
ChanceMcCall-Would it be accurate to compare Rauner to a failed Governor?
Close, but not entirely. I do think it is important to consider two things:
1. Rauner has failed because he was inexperienced and had no idea how powerful the Madigan machine was. That doesn’t change the fact he was Mr. Deeds goes to Springfield - his purpose was a good one. He might do better in a second term now that he better understands the playing field.
2. If JB wins, and I expect he will, we will have a state government run entirely by Democrats with Madigan as King. That will not be good for the remaining population. (Polls show as many as 1/3 of the population are planning to exit if JB is elected.) Also there are many articles out now cautioning investors considering Illinois to wait until after the election and skip Illinois if JB wins. That is not good either.
Illinois will get what it deserves if they elect JB and I’m pretty confident they will, so you will get what you want.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:55 pm:
Oh boy… whew… wow.
===Madigan as King.===
That you, John Kass. Wow. A king. Victimhood is strong here.
===That will not be good for the remaining population.===
Locus? Flood? Earthquake? “Before it’s too late?”
Rauner failed. He’s learned nothing. Rauner is no messiah.
===(Polls show as many as 1/3 of the population are planning to exit if JB is elected.)===
Is there a poll showing they’ll stay with Rauner winning? Hmm.
===Also there are many articles out now cautioning investors considering Illinois to wait until after the election and skip Illinois if JB wins. That is not good either.===
Cite?
Many is more than 3.
Thanks.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:57 pm:
Oh… also…
Those cites… not partisan “IPI” types and their drivel.
Thanks.
- Buck'n'Irish - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:06 pm:
==That will not be good for the remaining population. (Polls show as many as 1/3 of the population are planning to exit if JB is elected.==
LOL, yup 4 million of a 12 million person state is just gonna pack up and leave. Are you picturing a Grapes of Wrath situation where everyone packs their stuff on their cars and sets out for California or Texas. All the people saying that are full of it.
- Hysteria - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:09 pm:
Whenever I see these obscene amounts of money being spent on races, I think about all the good that money could do if it were given to charity. We could address a lot of the problems that the politicians say they are going to address but never do.
- Been There - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 5:46 pm:
===And since you can’t legally stop rich people from spending their own money on their campaigns, do you have a better idea?===
Just stop with the shenanigans of of playing a shell game with the money. Personally would like to see some caps but if you can’t because you can’t legally stop individuals from promoting themselves then just get rid of it. But also get rid of the dark money committees. At least we can connect the dots and call out the sources better than we can now.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 5:48 pm:
If Kass and Katrina are among the 4 million emigrants, that will be just fine.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:29 pm:
–That doesn’t change the fact he (Rauner) was Mr. Deeds goes to Springfield –
Crazy. By the way, boo-boo, it was “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” (Jimmy Stewart) and “Mr. Deeds Goes to Town” (Gary Cooper).
Yeah, I’m not making a Rauner connection with those two dudes.
– (Polls show as many as 1/3 of the population are planning to exit if JB is elected.)–
Crazier and unsupported.
– Also there are many articles out now cautioning investors considering Illinois to wait until after the election and skip Illinois if JB wins.–
Craziest and unsupported.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:48 pm:
=Illinois will get what it deserves=
Hey, we had 4 years of Rauner after all.