|
Did Pritzker defeat an incumbent Illinois governor by the biggest margin ever?
Monday, Dec 10, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller * Bernie…
I asked Team Pritzker if “margin” meant percentage or vote total and was told it meant percentage. He seems to be right. Or, at least, I think so. All of the results aren’t online and my set of “Centennial History of Illinois” had some of the results (all with much more narrow margins than Pritzker vs. Rauner), but is missing two volumes, so I couldn’t be sure. And then I found the online version, but I couldn’t find all the results there, either. Maybe one of you will have better luck because I ain’t got all day to mess with this. The next biggest margin over a sitting governor appears to be Democrat Adlai Stevenson’s 1948 win against Republican Gov. Dwight Green. Stevenson won by 14.5 percentage points. Pritzker won by 15.7 points. By the way, Stevenson won by 572,067 votes, which was apparently the record until now. Pritzker won by 713,995 votes. So, the record is apparently for both percentage and vote margins.
|
 |
|
|
- PublicServant - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:30 pm:
I mean, is there anyone besides Lucky Pierre that Rauner didn’t alienate? Pritzker’s got a mandate, and he’s an actual governor who works to get consensus on the issues. He’ll do the doable. Maybe the Infrastructure bill first along with getting some GOP votes on the Progressive Tax on the ballot in 2020.
- wordslinger - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:31 pm:
–Pritzker won by 713,995 votes. So, the record is apparently for both percentage and vote margins.–
And he’s a multi-billionaire, to boot.
Yet some will tell us he has no mandate and will be a Madigan stooge.
Some very silly people really don’t understand how power works.
- Christopher - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:34 pm:
Congratulations again to Mr. Pritzker and Ms. Stratton on such a stunning victory. I hope that they will live up to our hopes and be what Illinois needs.
- Huh? - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:37 pm:
Man, oh man. 1.4% figured out how to win when he lost the election. Getting beat be the largest margin in Illinois history must really sting the ego.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:40 pm:
…and be what Illinois needs.
My hopes are: a place where my slightly below middle income children can live and raise a family.
- Arsenal - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:52 pm:
I mentioned that a few times during the campaign, usually in response to the dumb, “WELL, WHY IS JB ONLY WINNING BY 10?” question.
IL Governors just don’t get walloped like that.
It’s also quite something that two IL Governors in a row lost re-election.
- Norseman - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:56 pm:
Record defeat suits Rauner.
- Amalia - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:57 pm:
it’s an indication of how much people wanted a change. good luck with making things better.
- Midstate Indy - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 1:59 pm:
Talking points backed by fact - in this case even covering interpretation. That’s a good foot to lead with.
- Steve Rogers - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:00 pm:
Rich, Do you have a copy of Mostly Good and Competent? It’s the biographical book on Illinois governors, and it has vote totals and percentages in one of its appendices. And yes, Pritzker is right, he won by the biggest percentage (and vote total) over an incumbent.
Only nine incumbents have lost general reelection (Fifer, Altgeld, Dunne, Green, Stratton, Shapiro, Ogilvie, Quinn, and Rauner). It’s a little misleading though, because up until the Constitution of 1870, a sitting governor could not run for reelection.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:01 pm:
Amalia.. excellent.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:10 pm:
===a copy of Mostly Good and Competent?===
I did, but I think I may have lent it to someone because I couldn’t find it today.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:21 pm:
Len Small lost his primary during his reelection in 1928 to future governor Louis Emmerson, 63% to 37%.
So Governor Small is Illinois’ Biggest Loser Governor.
- Thomas Paine - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:25 pm:
I don’t think its a national record, but it is pretty close.
Back in 2003, Californians voted to recall Gray Davis by a margin of 4.9 million to 4 million. I think that is the worst beating an incumbent governor has ever taken.
Pritzker and Schwarzenegger are similar in their populist appeal, lets hope JB has better luck than Arnold.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:31 pm:
===Governor Small is Illinois’ Biggest Loser Governor.===
Runner up might be Dan Walker, who lost his primary to Mike Howlett, 54-46, who was absolutely crushed by Big Jim Thompson, 65-35.
- John Amdor - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:35 pm:
Former Governor Small was also the Republican nominee in 1932 and got walloped by 16.9%
- Arsenal - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:35 pm:
==Runner up might be Dan Walker, who lost his primary to Mike Howlett, 54-46, who was absolutely crushed by Big Jim Thompson, 65-35.==
It’d be interesting to do a deep dive on primary results since the parties today are far more ideologically coherent than they were in even the 70s.
- Stones - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 2:40 pm:
Without a doubt, this was a perfect storm loss for Rauner. The candidate who won largely by outspending his opponents in the primary and general was trounced by Pritzker’s spending this time around. Also alienating his base and going to war against Unions was unnecessary and not very smart. Finally, despite trying to keep his distance from Trump I wonder how much the President’s unpopularity in Chicago and the collar counties affected the margin?
- Pundent - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 3:18 pm:
=Finally, despite trying to keep his distance from Trump I wonder how much the President’s unpopularity in Chicago and the collar counties affected the margin?=
Not surprisingly, Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren find themselves agreeing with you.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 3:29 pm:
==going to war against Unions was unnecessary and not very smart==
It was the primary policy initiative of Rauner’s administration. From Rauner’s actions, he seemed to think that the war against unions was not only necessary it was the key to everything he stood for.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 3:30 pm:
=== it was the key to everything he stood for===
Exactly right.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 4:41 pm:
“the war against unions”
Rauner tried to turn ordinary people in unions into villains for doing what he and his allies were trying to do, having a seat at the table of power. You can’t spend millions buying and controlling a state political party like Rauner did and call other people with less money corrupt for trying to get access to power. Unions stand up for workers having a seat at the table, the same seat that multimillionaires and billionaires often get.
The message for unions to members: you belong at the Great American table of power. You deserve to have a voice, especially when your key opponents have so much money to use against you.
- OldIllini - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 5:01 pm:
If you want to compare vote totals, you have to factor in the change in population from 1948 to 2018 (70 years). Percentage is a better way to do it.
- Annonin' - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 5:04 pm:
Your diligence is…impressive
- @misterjayem - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 5:13 pm:
“My hopes are: a place where my slightly below middle income children can live and raise a family.”
And I hope for a place where families aren’t raised by children.
– MrJM
- VanillaMan - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 5:14 pm:
Rauner also viilianized everyone with government experience. He mistreated his own party’s elected officials, spent millions running ads against his political opponents and gutted his own staffers.
Anyone who knew anything different from the voices in his head were attacked.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 5:23 pm:
I’ve said this repeatedly since Ryan left, “we can’t do worse” - but we have over the past 20 years.
I hope this new guy is a keeper - but he’s another Chicago Democrat. Sigh.
- Illini89 - Monday, Dec 10, 18 @ 10:12 pm:
As an Illinoisan now living out of state I wish the very best for the new Governor, Speaker Madigan and President Cullerton. May you be successful in returning Illinois to its rightful place among our states and rebuilding prosperity for all its people.