Illinois death projection again revised upward
Monday, Apr 6, 2020
* The University of Washington IHME’s COVID-19 model was updated last night. Illinois is now expected to require peak healthcare resources on April 16th. That’s a day earlier than its initial projection and four days earlier than its April 2 projection.
The study projects 208 deaths per day by April 12, which is much higher and much earlier than the last projection of 109 deaths per day on April 20th and the first projection of 91 on April 17th.
The statewide ICU shortage is projected to start in two days, a day later than the April 2nd projection, but much earlier than the original March projection of April 16.
And remember, there’s a range involved here. This is not an exact science. Actual numbers could be higher or lower and dates could be earlier or later. Think of a poll’s Margin of Error.
The revised updates are explained in detail here.