* Hannah Meisel…
The Republican Party nationally has changed dramatically in the eight years since Rauner won, as Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and four years in the White House maligned more traditional GOP politicians — especially those aligned with business interests. Instead, a growing number of Republicans have tapped into a growing and self-perpetuating hunger among previously disaffected voters, even if it means touting baseless conspiracy theories and sometimes amplifying outright racism.
Elected state Republican leaders in Illinois — a blue island on a presidential voting map surrounded by an increasingly red Midwest — have been resistant to riding the new GOP tide. This resistance has divided the state party, a body made up of hyper-partisans who have revolted against their party chairs twice in the past decade for being too moderate.
A key faction of longtime GOP operatives, however, are placing a bet that a diverse mix of Republicans running mostly on kitchen-table issues can attract crossover voters, mostly from suburban areas. But it’s a high-stakes bet, especially given the GOP primary electorate has shifted to mostly downstate areas in the past two decades, which have gotten more conservative as former Democratic strongholds buoyed by union organizing have disappeared, along with key industries.
The bet also promises to be expensive. Griffin, the founder and CEO of Chicago-based hedge fund Citadel, this fall reportedly vowed to spend as much as $300 million on Republican candidates in the 2022 cycle. After Irvin’s announcement Monday, Griffin touted the candidate’s credentials.
Top Illinois Republican leaders also resisted embracing Reaganism back in the day. This internal party fight has ancient roots here.
* Greg Hinz has questions…
• Will the public’s memory focus on Pritzker’s failed effort to push through a graduated income tax, or on his more recent accomplishments in balancing the state’s budget, raising its credit rating and paying off old bills rung up during Rauner’s tenure?
• Will COVID finally ease for good, boosting the state’s mood and taking the edge off of what augurs to be at least a good year for Republicans nationally?
• Who will turn out to be the bigger bogeyman: Rauner, whom Democrats seek to mention at every turn, or Mike Madigan, the now retired but still remembered Illinois House speaker?
• Will other top GOP fundraisers—Ron Gidwitz, Dick Uihlein and Craig Duchossois, to name three examples—open their wallets wide for the ticket? I’m told that was a condition of getting Griffin involved, but we’ll see.
* Rick Pearson…
“I’ve seen it up close. Defund the police is dumb, dangerous and it costs lives. And I believe that all lives matter. Every family should be safe,” he says. “My city is now safe, stronger and full of opportunity. I want that for Illinois.”
Irvin, 51, the first Black mayor of the state’s second largest city, chose Martin Luther King Jr. Day to launch a campaign he and Republicans believe can appeal to Black voters who traditionally vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
At the same time, Republicans see the recent outbreak in violent crime in the city and suburbs as an opportunity to portray Democrats as soft on crime for enacting criminal justice changes such as an end to cash bail, even though many of those changes have yet to go into effect.
Crime will be the central issue for that Republican slate this year.
* Craig Wall…
“He has to convince diehard GOP voters that he is conservative enough to satisfy their concerns, but he also has to be looking for the general election and he has to be able to convince GOP voters that he can win in the fall,” ABC7 political analyst Laura Washington said.
“The best part about the campaign, the primary this year is not in March. It’s June 28,” political analyst Thom Serafin said. “So he’s got a lot of time to do what he needs to do to get done, and he got a good start based on that video I saw today.” […]
“He’s getting into the race late, but it’s not that late,” Washington said.
“We’ve got almost six months ahead of campaigning. If he has a huge amount of money behind him, he can play catch up very quickly.”
* Marni Pyke…
One issue likely to come up in the primary is that Irvin pulled Democratic ballots in the 2014, 2016 and 2020 election primaries and in the 2017 and 2021 consolidated election primaries.
He picked a Republican ballot in the 2018 primary that former Gov. Bruce Rauner won.
“I welcome Mayor Irvin to the race and I look forward to reviewing his conservative credentials and comparing and contrasting his vision for Illinois with ours,” said Palatine Township Highway Commissioner Aaron Del Mar, who is running for lieutenant governor on a ticket with governor candidate and businessman Gary Rabine of McHenry.
Del Mar called it “strategic” that Irvin’s campaign announcement came in a video and he was not available for questions. “I think there’s a lot about Mr. Irvin that Republican voters want to know,” Del Mar said.
* Lynn Sweet…
Leading the Irvin project is Kirk alum Mike Zolnierowicz, a former chief of staff for Rauner who was the “strategic consultant” for the successful 2020 campaign, fueled by Griffin’s millions, to defeat Pritzker’s bid for a graduated income tax.
With Irvin’s name in play since December, Pritzker’s team, the Democratic Party of Illinois and the Democratic Governor’s Association have been steadfastly linking him to Rauner and Griffin.
The Democrats labeled the Irvin-led slate the “Griffin slate,” and hope the name sticks. The Irvin-Bourne nominating petitions call themselves the “Fight for Illinois Team.” The address for their petition drive is Zolnierowicz’s firm, Z Strategies, in Ravenswood.
* Steven Spearie…
[Don Tracy, chairman of the Illinois Republican Party], at the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Breakfast in Springfield, encouraged all GOP candidates to heed the 11th Commandment.
“Thou shalt not speak ill of thy fellow Republican. It’s going to be tough in a competitive primary, but as state party chair, it’s my job to remind people of that and I will continue to do so,” he said.
* Greg Bishop…
Reform For Illinois Executive Director Alisa Kaplan said it’s going to be a big money campaign the state hasn’t seen before.
“This is an insane amount of money by any standard,” Kaplan told The Center Square Monday. “By national standards, by local standards, by global standards.”
Pritzker spent more than $170 million to get the job in 2018.
“Look at the vicious cycle that Illinois has gotten into with two billionaires,” Kaplan said. “It’s very distressing that Pritzker put $90 million into his campaign account. But when you look at Ken Griffin saying he’s going to put $300 million, how is someone going to fight except with a lot of money.”
Kaplan said voters must beware the influence big money has.
“I think people should be very concerned about what this means for their democracy and do whatever they can to get involved and see how we can empower everyday voters instead of just sitting back and accepting this situation,” Kaplan said.
…Adding… Mark Maxwell…
The next year, while he was running for re-election in Aurora in the spring of 2021, Irvin told a local news outlet, “I support Black Lives Matter strongly and passionately.”
This year, now that he’s running for governor in a Republican primary, Irvin repeated critics of the Black Lives Matter movement who often retort, “I believe All Lives Matter.”
- Soapbox Derby - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 9:59 am:
‘Newcomer” Republican candidate shows up and buys the Illinois Republican Party.
It’s 2014 all over again.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:02 am:
It’s really funny how even with weeks of public preparation, the Griffin team let the narrative get away from them.
Although really, it’s *because* they spent weeks publicly preparing.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:03 am:
===‘Newcomer” Republican candidate===
Guy has been around quite a while.
- Soapbox Derby - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:06 am:
Rich, Irvin hasn’t been exactly attending Lincoln Day Dinners over the past decade.
- Hamlet on the Potomac - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:24 am:
If Pritzker matches Griffins spending, they could potentially spend more on this Governors race than G.W. Bush and Kerry spent on the 2004 Presidential race combined.
2004 combined = 695 million.
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:25 am:
Nope. After Rauner/Trump, I’m not even interested in hearing what any Republican has to say.
- Downstate - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:28 am:
“I’m not even interested in hearing what any Republican has to say.”
You must be a school board member. /s/
Crime and education will be the talking points for Republicans this fall.
- phocion - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:29 am:
Irvin is taking fire from the left and the right. Sounds like the kind of candidate the big middle can line up behind.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:31 am:
===will be the talking points===
We will see, as we will see with Abortion
Bourne on the ticket, if they win the primary, will put the “Republicans are dangerous to women’s health” front abd center… if the Clarence Thomas Court supports Texas and Mississippi in their abortion laws.
I mean… suburban women and all
- City Guy - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:41 am:
$300 million? wow. It may take a U.S. Constitutional Amendment or an updated fairness doctrine, but we really need to address the problems created by Citizens United ruling.
- Jibba - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:46 am:
And I thought critical race theory was going to be the issue of the year after the Virginia Dem loss…
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:49 am:
The decision to pitch himself as an outsider to Illinois politics requires a special kind of cynicism.
From the way he’s talking it sounds like he’s been Mayor of Aurora for a lot longer than 4 years and 9 months.
GOP Daddy Kenny G is putting together a slate that he thinks can win in the general election — the question is whether or not the primary voters of Illinois want to have a political party that dances to the whims of his strings or not.
We may learn that the GOP doesn’t sell their party, they just offer it up for lease every 4 years in an as is condition.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 10:58 am:
==And I thought critical race theory was going to be the issue of the year after the Virginia Dem loss… ==
Well, CRT is part of the education issue.
- Donnie Elgin - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 11:11 am:
“Citizens United ruling”
which simply reaffirmed the doctrine “corporations are persons within the meaning of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States” which goes back to an 1886 SCOTUS ruling.
- frsutrated GOP - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 11:17 am:
Another issue, regarding crime, that might come up is the people he represented when he was a defense atty after leaving the State’s atty office. I think he defended some nasty drug dealers and gang bangers. some might have beat the rap.
He’s going to have to defend that, besides the normal “everyone is entitled to a defense” argument.
- King Louis XVI - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 11:24 am:
–The next year, while he was running for re-election in Aurora in the spring of 2021, Irvin told a local news outlet, “I support Black Lives Matter strongly and passionately.”–
That’ll appeal to the GOP base.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 11:51 am:
Crime and education will be the talking points for Republicans this fall.
Pritzker seems smart enough not to wade into the debate over CRT. And why would he? The unforced errors of the Virginia governor don’t automatically translate to success for the GOP as a whole.
And as far as crime goes, the views on the topic, and who’s too blame can vary widely across the state. Is it a vulnerability for Pritzker? Maybe. But there’s a long way to go, and a primary standing in the way that Irvin will have to navigate through.
The biggest challenge facing the ILGOP is that JB Pritzker isn’t Pat Quinn. But there could be a whole lot of similarities between Richard Irvin and Bruce Rauner.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 11:53 am:
=Crime and education will be the talking points for Republicans this fall.=
Sorry forgot to attribute the above quote to -
Downstate-
- Fav Human - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:02 pm:
When will someone start using the gold mine of oppo dump that is on Jeff Ward’s the first ward blog?
More importantly, does KG’s team have rapid response ready?
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:03 pm:
=Crime and education will be the talking points for Republicans this fall.=
I cannot speak to the issue of crime, but education is something the ILGOP and the GOP in general seem to know nothing about other than making wildly false accusations and wanting religion in schools as long as it is christianity.
Hard pass.
- vern - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:17 pm:
I’m still baffled that he announced he’s running for Governor on a day he insists is inappropriate for discussing his campaign for
Governor. But now that we’re free of that logic ouroboros, will he, Rep. Bourne, or his campaign answer some basic questions? For example:
1. Who did he vote for for President in 2020, primary and general?
2. Who did he vote for for President in 2016, primary and general?
3. Who did he vote for for Governor in 2014, primary and general?
4. Ken Griffin issued a statement implying he had never met or spoken to Mayor Irvin. Was that statement accurate?
Obviously folks wants to know Irvin’s opinion on various issues, but these are first-order factual questions that the campaign should have planned responses for.
- Steve Rogers - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:26 pm:
@vern:
5. Who won the 2020 presidential election?
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:37 pm:
=GOP Daddy Kenny G is putting together a slate that he thinks can win in the general election+
I think it’s just “Kenny.” I learned the last time around that we drop the G’s.
- Substitute Scribe - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:39 pm:
You guys must not have read Mike Z’s guest column in Cap Fax this morning. Irving is Republican. Full stop. He just keeps reaching across the aisle and voting for democrats. Nothing to see, move along, on to November…
Kidding aside I’m happy to see the Rich/Zolnierowicz bromance back in action.
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 12:40 pm:
Education and crime are a lot more than just talking points for voters of all stripes
Hey Vern
Elections are secret ballots in America
Do you care who JB voted for too?
- low level - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 1:21 pm:
Having worked for several relatively broke Dem candidates as compared to their Republican opponents, I find it refreshing that Pritzker can remain competitive money wise.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 1:34 pm:
===Elections are secret ballots in America===
The Trumpkin litmus test is a thing in the cult. If anything, in the primary it’s gonna matter insofar as who may support whom and why.
===Do you care who JB voted for too?===
Dude, you actually care about a phone call to a senate seat replacement, lol… why do you care about that if it doesn’t matter who supports who… and why?
Seriously, you are slipping… it’s going to matter in this primary as Trumpkins require cult fealty, and fealty to whatever the cult deems acceptable. Otherwise your ask about “a phone call” is as ridiculous as it already seems, but now it’s just backfiring on you specifically
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 1:38 pm:
The GOP seems to be pro-crime and anti-education.
- SIUEalum - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 1:46 pm:
I’m a little bit surprised that the ILGOP and/or Griffin hasn’t found a candidate for the senate race yet. Assuming someone doesn’t jump in at the last minute, it’s going to be interesting watching the statewide nominees respond to the comments coming from the Piton or Hubbard campaign.
- vern - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 1:47 pm:
Pierre, I care who JB voted for but I also know, he’s not exactly shy about his political opinions. It’s a trait I kind of like in people seeking political office. Ballots are secret, just like tax returns, but running for *public* office involves voluntarily giving up some privacy.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 2:10 pm:
==Do you care who JB voted for too?==
You continue to amaze me at the level of ignorance you display on a daily basis. You don’t even try to be honest in your discussions.
Irvin is running as a Republican. It’s highly relevant to point out his voting record when it seems to be in conflict with the party he has attached himself with for this run.
- Soapbox Derby - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 2:38 pm:
I’m more interested in why he’s voted in more Democrat primaries than Republican. Not who he’s actually voted for.
- low level - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 2:56 pm:
Democrat JB voted for Democrats and was a Democratic activist before that.
Boy that was hard, wasn’t it?
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jan 18, 22 @ 8:48 pm:
Beyond Irvin’s voting record, I’m more interested in the answer to a fundamental question. How does he feel about public sector unions? Because the last guy that was bankrolled by Ken Griffin was so adamantly opposed to them that he refused to govern and drove the state into a financial ditch which we’re just now getting out of. Or are we to believe that this is no longer an issue for Mr Griffin?