Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » More recent, less janky tracking poll has Irvin leading Bailey 33-21 with the rest far behind and 25 percent unsure
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
More recent, less janky tracking poll has Irvin leading Bailey 33-21 with the rest far behind and 25 percent unsure

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

* Background is here if you need it. Victory Geek appears to be basically a robocall operation, but Cor Strategies designed this survey. I’d bump this mobile phone number way up for reliability, but whatever. Let’s start with the methodology

671 responses were gathered by Victory Geek for Cor Strategies from Friday, April 29th, though Monday, May 2nd, with 1/3 of those responses collected live over cell phones. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.78%.

* Polling memo from Cor Strategies

Last week one of the questions from an internal poll we had conducted for a client got leaked, showing tracking numbers for the Illinois Governor’s race. The problem is this poll was never intended for public consumption—it was a quick and dirty automated tracking poll testing something else entirely. The data gave our client what they needed, but these results never should’ve been taken as an accurate snapshot of the governor’s race.

To say we were horrified to have our name tied to those results as an official public tracking poll would be an understatement, so we commissioned an actual poll that we could release. Here are those results.

Richard Irvin has taken a commanding lead in the Illinois governor’s race, with 33% support. Bailey is still in striking distance at 21%, but quickly running out of time. Sullivan has faded to 10%, and the rest of the candidates are in single digits (Rabine 7%, Solomon 3%, Schimpf 2%). With only 25% of likely Republican primary voters undecided, Irvin’s challengers either need to unite or individually dominate the remainder of this race if they are to have any hope of overcoming his lead.

Irvin’s support is statewide but strongest in the suburbs, where he has lapped the field with 38% of the vote compared to just 13% for Bailey. Meanwhile, Bailey polls significantly better outside the suburbs at 27%, but even there he still trails Irvin who has 31%. Sullivan’s support is fairly consistent throughout the state, while Rabine is significantly stronger in Cook County (14%) and the suburbs (11%) than the rest of Illinois (2%).

An interesting note is Irvin’s attacks on Bailey and Sullivan have increased their negatives but both candidates are still “above water.” In fact, Bailey’s net favorability is the same as Irvin’s (+12%). The key difference is overall name recognition: Irvin has achieved an extremely strong 71% name recognition while Bailey is at a relatively weaker 50%. The difference is glaring in the suburbs, where Irvin’s name recognition is 73% compared to just 38% for Bailey.

These results back up what many of us in the industry have observed:

    • Irvin has dominated the space for months and used that to build his lead. If all voters hear is what Irvin is putting in front of them, can you blame them for voting for the one candidate they know?
    • Bailey has done very little paid voter outreach to everyday Republicans, focusing almost exclusively on grassroots campaigning. This has given him extremely strong support among politically active conservatives, but he has a math problem because that is a small segment of the overall Republican voter population.
    • Sullivan impressed early and earned a surprising level of support, but since has inexplicably been almost radio silent other than his one (excellent) video ad on socials and targeted tv.
    • Rabine has built some support in Cook County and the suburbs but is likely fighting for 3rd in the race at this point. Interestingly, you combine his support in Chicagoland with Bailey’s support in the rest of the state and you almost have a candidate who can beat Irvin.

It’s important to point out that Bailey’s supporters are much more active and dedicated than Irvin’s, so he is likely to overperform any poll. The exact impact is dependent on voter turnout, but we’d estimate his overperformance to end up around 3%, though it could be as much as 5-7% if his team’s claims of their success with “silent voters” is to be believed.

So Bailey isn’t out of this race yet. But if he continues to ignore regular Republican voters, especially in Chicagoland, Irvin’s lead will just keep growing.

* Again, 25 percent of Republican primary voters are reported to be undecided statewide

More crosstabs are here.


- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - SaulGoodman - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:57 pm:

    Who is Cor’s client in this race?

  2. - OneMan - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:58 pm:

    Appreciate the love the rest of the state has for Aurora :-)

    Going to say the outside the collars number is a surprise for him.

  3. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:58 pm:

    ===Who is Cor’s client in this race? ===

    At one point they were paid by Schimpf. But they’re doing the Brady SoS race.

  4. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:59 pm:

    Roughly matches what I thought it was in the Rabine ad thread. Basically a two-way race. How accurate the numbers are can be disputed, but the general positions feel right. I do agree that Bailey has the most fervent support, but whether than can make up for millions of advertising remains to be seen. I can’t imagine people saying “I’m really excited to vote for Richard Irvin.”

  5. - Arsenal - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:01 pm:

    All passes the smell test for me. Irvin’s the only one they’ve seen, so even if they aren’t super impressed, can’t beat something with nothing.

    There’s room for someone to close the gap with a lot of media, but time’s a-tickin’.

  6. - Norseman - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:01 pm:

    Irvin singing:

    My rich guy is better than your rich guy,
    My rich guy is better than yours, …

  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:03 pm:

    Irvin stays between ~34-37%, he might pull this off.

    It’s an interesting snapshot to where things sit, and how cash and such are one thing, and Facebook Tent Revivals are another.

    Irvin staying silent on Roe makes a bit more sense… even if it’s not great for everyone, including press

  8. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:05 pm:

    Wonder how Devore vs. Kim is going lol.

  9. - Nick - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:07 pm:

    Kind of funny how even with all his VC money, ads, and mailers, Sullivan just really hasn’t taken off.

  10. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:11 pm:

    It strikes me that Irvin is in the best spot, but if Bailey can get enough money to break through or, the holy grail, Trump, he still has a decent shot.

  11. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:12 pm:

    Bailey may need to pray a bit harder.

  12. - ZC - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:14 pm:

    Certainly consistent with Irvin’s defend-the-lead, bunker mentality on the new Supreme Court ruling.

  13. - Lake Villa Township - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:19 pm:

    Wish we could get some gop senate primary polls.

  14. - ZC - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:21 pm:

    Looking at the crosstabs, Irvin has a 51% favorable and only 23% “no opinion” among Republicans under 44. Everyone else is 40% favorable or less, and at least 40% “no opinion.”

    That’s your advertising effect right there. I’m a Democrat, and on my YouTube videos it’s the Irvin-Pritzker show.

  15. - Arsenal - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:23 pm:

    ==It strikes me that Irvin is in the best spot, but if Bailey can get enough money to break through or, the holy grail, Trump, he still has a decent shot. ==

    That feels about right, but god you never want your fate to be outside of your hands like that.

  16. - Nick - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:26 pm:

    Trump did just get JD Vance over the finish line in Ohio against much richer and well-established candidates.

    Bailey surely must want some of that magic for himself…

  17. - Highland IL - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:28 pm:

    ===Wonder how Devore vs. Kim is going lol.===

    Based on Tommy’s Facebook rants, not good. LOL.

  18. - New Day - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:37 pm:

    I suspect this is overstating Irvin and understating Bailey and Sullivan. Really would like to see a high quality poll. This is still marginal.

  19. - Roman - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:38 pm:

    Lots of undecideds and I’m not sure how committed Irvin’s supporters are to him, so Bailey still has a shot. But he’s gonna need to get on TV in Chicago or land Trump’s endorsement (maybe both) to catch up. He’ll also have to survive a wave of negative TV ads, which is something that really hasn’t materialized yet.

  20. - Pundent - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:43 pm:

    If you don’t like Irvin there are plenty of alternatives. And therein lies the problem. In a crowded field Irvin wins. Fundamentally there isn’t much difference between the Bailey, Rabine and Sullivan campaigns. Bailey should leverage their poor support as a catalyst to get them to drop out. An Irvin Bailey matchup may be more competitive but as things stand right now it’s Irvin’s race to lose.

  21. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    -At one point they were paid by Schimpf.-

    Hopefully not anymore, unless he has a thing for pain. Yikes.

  22. - TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    “Interestingly, you combine his[Rabine] support in Chicagoland with Bailey’s support in the rest of the state and you almost have a candidate who can beat Irvin.”

    To the dismay of those wishing for such a Ba-bine mashup, reality isn’t a Voltron cartoon.

  23. - Rabid - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:51 pm:

    The man with no plan or opinion is in the lead, it worked before

  24. - Excitable Boy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:14 pm:

    I’d say Bailey’s only shot is if he manages to get an endorsement from Trump.

  25. - Downstate Teacher - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    The only reason Trump endorsed Vance was because Vance was already a “celebrity”. Vance was a known name due to Hillbilly Elegy. The same goes with Oz Mehmet in Pennsylvania. They get support because 1) they are celebrities and 2) Trump thinks they will win (in that order).

    Trump may not support someone who is not a celebrity if they do not have the best chance of winning. But if Bailey can get the others to drop (and endorse him), then a Trump endorsement may be what overtakes Irving.

    I know Bailey and the family (and people like Adam Neimerg) went to Florida to kiss the ring but I think a Trump endorsement only comes if Bailey is in a better position (unless this Vance win makes Trump think that he is a kingmaker who is the only reason people win).

  26. - Lakefront - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:44 pm:

    == Trump did just get JD Vance over the finish line in Ohio against much richer and well-established candidates ==

    Let’s be clear. Darren Bailey is no JD Vance.

  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:51 pm:


    “Why take a chance?”

    - Momo, or Z, maybe

    Thing is, with $20 mil, and a guy known for stolen valor, why *not* go after the phony Sullivan?

  28. - Pundent - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    =It’s interesting and seemingly incongruent that Irvin’s pollsters say Sullivan is uncompetitive within 24 hours of Irvin releasing a television attack ad on Sullivan.=

    Not really. When you’ve got the kind of money the Irvin campaign does, and undecides at around 25%, you don’t leave anything to chance. And money, to the extent you have it, spent defending against an attack is money that’s not available to launch an offensive.

  29. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    Pundent, please don’t reply to trolls.

  30. - MisterJayEm - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 3:52 pm:

    “you never want your fate to be outside of your hands like that.”

    Ironically, the fate of the GOP’s front runner is in the hands of the billionaire pulling his $tring$.

    – MrJM

  31. - chacha - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 6:54 pm:

    Surprised Ken Griffin’s millions to fund Irvin’s lies only give him 8% lead. Lots of time and most have yet to tune in.

  32. - chacha - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 6:56 pm:

    Sorry, before someone says it, I mean 11% lead, but doesn’t really matter. Same difference. Bailey, Sullivan, Rabine all need to hit Irvin. Plenty to hit him with including abortion.

  33. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 7:03 pm:

    - chacha -

    Gotta spend some dollars, and then hope people know your candidate too.

    Burning daylight too.

TrackBack URI

This is not Facebook, so uncivil comments, profanity of any kind, rumors and anonymous commenters will not be tolerated and will likely result in banishment.

* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Question of the day
* Waffle House shooter's father faces up to three years in prison
* Campaign notebook
* COVID-19 update
* Another day, another lawsuit
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup
* Secretary of state candidates take more potshots
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Will the revised Census numbers change anything?
* DCFS director held in contempt for 11th time
* It's time to try something besides simply reacting angrily to crises, Mayor Lightfoot
* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...








Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller