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More recent, less janky tracking poll has Irvin leading Bailey 33-21 with the rest far behind and 25 percent unsure

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

* Background is here if you need it. Victory Geek appears to be basically a robocall operation, but Cor Strategies designed this survey. I’d bump this mobile phone number way up for reliability, but whatever. Let’s start with the methodology

671 responses were gathered by Victory Geek for Cor Strategies from Friday, April 29th, though Monday, May 2nd, with 1/3 of those responses collected live over cell phones. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.78%.

* Polling memo from Cor Strategies

Last week one of the questions from an internal poll we had conducted for a client got leaked, showing tracking numbers for the Illinois Governor’s race. The problem is this poll was never intended for public consumption—it was a quick and dirty automated tracking poll testing something else entirely. The data gave our client what they needed, but these results never should’ve been taken as an accurate snapshot of the governor’s race.

To say we were horrified to have our name tied to those results as an official public tracking poll would be an understatement, so we commissioned an actual poll that we could release. Here are those results.

Richard Irvin has taken a commanding lead in the Illinois governor’s race, with 33% support. Bailey is still in striking distance at 21%, but quickly running out of time. Sullivan has faded to 10%, and the rest of the candidates are in single digits (Rabine 7%, Solomon 3%, Schimpf 2%). With only 25% of likely Republican primary voters undecided, Irvin’s challengers either need to unite or individually dominate the remainder of this race if they are to have any hope of overcoming his lead.

Irvin’s support is statewide but strongest in the suburbs, where he has lapped the field with 38% of the vote compared to just 13% for Bailey. Meanwhile, Bailey polls significantly better outside the suburbs at 27%, but even there he still trails Irvin who has 31%. Sullivan’s support is fairly consistent throughout the state, while Rabine is significantly stronger in Cook County (14%) and the suburbs (11%) than the rest of Illinois (2%).

An interesting note is Irvin’s attacks on Bailey and Sullivan have increased their negatives but both candidates are still “above water.” In fact, Bailey’s net favorability is the same as Irvin’s (+12%). The key difference is overall name recognition: Irvin has achieved an extremely strong 71% name recognition while Bailey is at a relatively weaker 50%. The difference is glaring in the suburbs, where Irvin’s name recognition is 73% compared to just 38% for Bailey.

These results back up what many of us in the industry have observed:

    • Irvin has dominated the space for months and used that to build his lead. If all voters hear is what Irvin is putting in front of them, can you blame them for voting for the one candidate they know?
    • Bailey has done very little paid voter outreach to everyday Republicans, focusing almost exclusively on grassroots campaigning. This has given him extremely strong support among politically active conservatives, but he has a math problem because that is a small segment of the overall Republican voter population.
    • Sullivan impressed early and earned a surprising level of support, but since has inexplicably been almost radio silent other than his one (excellent) video ad on socials and targeted tv.
    • Rabine has built some support in Cook County and the suburbs but is likely fighting for 3rd in the race at this point. Interestingly, you combine his support in Chicagoland with Bailey’s support in the rest of the state and you almost have a candidate who can beat Irvin.

It’s important to point out that Bailey’s supporters are much more active and dedicated than Irvin’s, so he is likely to overperform any poll. The exact impact is dependent on voter turnout, but we’d estimate his overperformance to end up around 3%, though it could be as much as 5-7% if his team’s claims of their success with “silent voters” is to be believed.

So Bailey isn’t out of this race yet. But if he continues to ignore regular Republican voters, especially in Chicagoland, Irvin’s lead will just keep growing.

* Again, 25 percent of Republican primary voters are reported to be undecided statewide

More crosstabs are here.

Thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

33 Comments »
  1. - SaulGoodman - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:57 pm:

    Who is Cor’s client in this race?


  2. - OneMan - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:58 pm:

    Appreciate the love the rest of the state has for Aurora :-)

    Going to say the outside the collars number is a surprise for him.


  3. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:58 pm:

    ===Who is Cor’s client in this race? ===

    At one point they were paid by Schimpf. But they’re doing the Brady SoS race.


  4. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 12:59 pm:

    Roughly matches what I thought it was in the Rabine ad thread. Basically a two-way race. How accurate the numbers are can be disputed, but the general positions feel right. I do agree that Bailey has the most fervent support, but whether than can make up for millions of advertising remains to be seen. I can’t imagine people saying “I’m really excited to vote for Richard Irvin.”


  5. - Arsenal - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:01 pm:

    All passes the smell test for me. Irvin’s the only one they’ve seen, so even if they aren’t super impressed, can’t beat something with nothing.

    There’s room for someone to close the gap with a lot of media, but time’s a-tickin’.


  6. - Norseman - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:01 pm:

    Irvin singing:

    My rich guy is better than your rich guy,
    My rich guy is better than yours, …


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:03 pm:

    Irvin stays between ~34-37%, he might pull this off.

    It’s an interesting snapshot to where things sit, and how cash and such are one thing, and Facebook Tent Revivals are another.

    Irvin staying silent on Roe makes a bit more sense… even if it’s not great for everyone, including press


  8. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:05 pm:

    Wonder how Devore vs. Kim is going lol.


  9. - Nick - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:07 pm:

    Kind of funny how even with all his VC money, ads, and mailers, Sullivan just really hasn’t taken off.


  10. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:11 pm:

    It strikes me that Irvin is in the best spot, but if Bailey can get enough money to break through or, the holy grail, Trump, he still has a decent shot.


  11. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:12 pm:

    Bailey may need to pray a bit harder.


  12. - ZC - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:14 pm:

    Certainly consistent with Irvin’s defend-the-lead, bunker mentality on the new Supreme Court ruling.


  13. - Lake Villa Township - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:19 pm:

    Wish we could get some gop senate primary polls.


  14. - ZC - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:21 pm:

    Looking at the crosstabs, Irvin has a 51% favorable and only 23% “no opinion” among Republicans under 44. Everyone else is 40% favorable or less, and at least 40% “no opinion.”

    That’s your advertising effect right there. I’m a Democrat, and on my YouTube videos it’s the Irvin-Pritzker show.


  15. - Arsenal - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:23 pm:

    ==It strikes me that Irvin is in the best spot, but if Bailey can get enough money to break through or, the holy grail, Trump, he still has a decent shot. ==

    That feels about right, but god you never want your fate to be outside of your hands like that.


  16. - Nick - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:26 pm:

    Trump did just get JD Vance over the finish line in Ohio against much richer and well-established candidates.

    Bailey surely must want some of that magic for himself…


  17. - Highland IL - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:28 pm:

    ===Wonder how Devore vs. Kim is going lol.===

    Based on Tommy’s Facebook rants, not good. LOL.


  18. - New Day - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:37 pm:

    I suspect this is overstating Irvin and understating Bailey and Sullivan. Really would like to see a high quality poll. This is still marginal.


  19. - Roman - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:38 pm:

    Lots of undecideds and I’m not sure how committed Irvin’s supporters are to him, so Bailey still has a shot. But he’s gonna need to get on TV in Chicago or land Trump’s endorsement (maybe both) to catch up. He’ll also have to survive a wave of negative TV ads, which is something that really hasn’t materialized yet.


  20. - Pundent - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:43 pm:

    If you don’t like Irvin there are plenty of alternatives. And therein lies the problem. In a crowded field Irvin wins. Fundamentally there isn’t much difference between the Bailey, Rabine and Sullivan campaigns. Bailey should leverage their poor support as a catalyst to get them to drop out. An Irvin Bailey matchup may be more competitive but as things stand right now it’s Irvin’s race to lose.


  21. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    -At one point they were paid by Schimpf.-

    Hopefully not anymore, unless he has a thing for pain. Yikes.


  22. - TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    “Interestingly, you combine his[Rabine] support in Chicagoland with Bailey’s support in the rest of the state and you almost have a candidate who can beat Irvin.”

    To the dismay of those wishing for such a Ba-bine mashup, reality isn’t a Voltron cartoon.


  23. - Rabid - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 1:51 pm:

    The man with no plan or opinion is in the lead, it worked before


  24. - Excitable Boy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:14 pm:

    I’d say Bailey’s only shot is if he manages to get an endorsement from Trump.


  25. - Downstate Teacher - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    The only reason Trump endorsed Vance was because Vance was already a “celebrity”. Vance was a known name due to Hillbilly Elegy. The same goes with Oz Mehmet in Pennsylvania. They get support because 1) they are celebrities and 2) Trump thinks they will win (in that order).

    Trump may not support someone who is not a celebrity if they do not have the best chance of winning. But if Bailey can get the others to drop (and endorse him), then a Trump endorsement may be what overtakes Irving.

    I know Bailey and the family (and people like Adam Neimerg) went to Florida to kiss the ring but I think a Trump endorsement only comes if Bailey is in a better position (unless this Vance win makes Trump think that he is a kingmaker who is the only reason people win).


  26. - Lakefront - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:44 pm:

    == Trump did just get JD Vance over the finish line in Ohio against much richer and well-established candidates ==

    Let’s be clear. Darren Bailey is no JD Vance.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:51 pm:

    ===incongruent===

    “Why take a chance?”

    - Momo, or Z, maybe

    Thing is, with $20 mil, and a guy known for stolen valor, why *not* go after the phony Sullivan?


  28. - Pundent - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    =It’s interesting and seemingly incongruent that Irvin’s pollsters say Sullivan is uncompetitive within 24 hours of Irvin releasing a television attack ad on Sullivan.=

    Not really. When you’ve got the kind of money the Irvin campaign does, and undecides at around 25%, you don’t leave anything to chance. And money, to the extent you have it, spent defending against an attack is money that’s not available to launch an offensive.


  29. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    Pundent, please don’t reply to trolls.


  30. - MisterJayEm - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 3:52 pm:

    “you never want your fate to be outside of your hands like that.”

    Ironically, the fate of the GOP’s front runner is in the hands of the billionaire pulling his $tring$.

    – MrJM


  31. - chacha - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 6:54 pm:

    Surprised Ken Griffin’s millions to fund Irvin’s lies only give him 8% lead. Lots of time and most have yet to tune in.


  32. - chacha - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 6:56 pm:

    Sorry, before someone says it, I mean 11% lead, but doesn’t really matter. Same difference. Bailey, Sullivan, Rabine all need to hit Irvin. Plenty to hit him with including abortion.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 4, 22 @ 7:03 pm:

    - chacha -

    Gotta spend some dollars, and then hope people know your candidate too.

    Burning daylight too.


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