Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » No surprise: Sixth poll has Bailey leading pre-Trump endorsement; Brady has big advantage; DeVore still nip and tuck
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
No surprise: Sixth poll has Bailey leading pre-Trump endorsement; Brady has big advantage; DeVore still nip and tuck

Monday, Jun 27, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It’s from Ogden & Fry, but it lines up with other numbers we’ve seen. Governor

Darren Bailey 37.6%
Gary Rabine 8.5%
Jesse Sullivan 17.2%
Max Solomon 0.8%
Paul Schimpf 3.2%
Richard Irvin 12.7%
Undecided 20.0%

After pushing the undecideds to make a decision

Darren Bailey 44.8%
Gary Rabine 10.7%
Jesse Sullivan 21.4%
Max Solomon 1.1%
Paul Schimpf 4.9%
Richard Irvin 17.1%

* US Senate

Anthony Williams 0.2%
Bobby Piton 3.3%
Casey Chleback 1.3%
Jimmy Lee Tillman II 2.2%
Kathy Salvi 20.1%
Maryann Mahlen 2.0%
Matthew Dubiel 6.3%
Peggy Hubbard 11.2%
Undecided 53.3%

After the push

Anthony Williams 6.1%
Bobby Piton 9.4%
Casey Chleback 4.2%
Jimmy Lee Tillman II 4.7%
Kathy Salvi 38.2%
Maryann Mahlen 5.8%
Matthew Dubiel 10.0%
Peggy Hubbard 21.6%

* Secretary of State

Dan Brady 42.4%
John Milhiser 18.2%
Undecided 39.4%

After the push

Dan Brady 68.7%
John Milhiser 31.3%

* Attorney General

David Shestokas 9.9%
Steve Kim 26.8%
Thomas DeVore 28.1%
Undecided 35.3%

After the push

David Shestokas 19.0%
Steve Kim 38.6%
Thomas DeVore 42.4%

* Methodology

Ogden & Fry conducted an eight-question poll June 24, 2022, with 518 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely Republican voters. Responses were gathered through SMS to web. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.39% at the 95% confidence interval.

       

35 Comments
  1. - Alice Childress - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:15 am:

    Curious about the Davis/Miller polling. Maybe you’ve posted and I’ve missed.


  2. - Lucky Pierre - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:15 am:

    The Illinois Governor’s race is on track to be the most expensive non Presidential election in US history and yet turnout is historically low so far.


  3. - Just Me 2 - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:17 am:

    I’m having to see Dan Brady get some love. That dude is a solid guy. He will out hustle anyone.


  4. - Sports Stooge - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:19 am:

    So basically other than Rep. Demmer and Shannon Teresi (who only have token opposition) all of Griffin’s folks are likely or going to lose. Yikes.


  5. - CubsFan16 - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:19 am:

    If the ticket ended up being Bailey/Kim/Salvi/Brady/Demmer/Theresi…that’s not ideal with Bailey but manageable. But adding Devore makes it an absolute train wreck.


  6. - Save Ferris - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:21 am:

    No poll for SoS-DEM?


  7. - Big Dipper - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:22 am:

    == the most expensive non Presidential election in US history ==

    Because Griffin (unsuccessfully) tried to buy the election.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:24 am:

    ===The Illinois Governor’s race is on track to be the most expensive non Presidential election in US history and yet turnout is historically low so far.===

    Could the time of year be a factor?


  9. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:28 am:

    Watched the Trump rally via one of the local stations or some other outlet. Powerful endorsement of Bailey (didn’t expect it). Thought maybe Trump would have given him a shout-out, but he went all the way.

    The rally was in large part about distrust of voting machines/voting systems, so maybe there will be a larger group of Republicans voting same-day on Tuesday? That’s how a Trump endorsement could really help, since it came so late.


  10. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:28 am:

    Fifty million dollars for a third place finish?
    I’d slink out of town, too.


  11. - The Snowman - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:33 am:

    For those that want Republicans to do well in Illinois, I’m happy to see that Kathy Salvi is on track to win the Senate nomination. I really hope Steve Kim makes it out of the primary. Devore could end up being an albatross to serious IL GOP candidates.


  12. - Norseman - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:33 am:

    Anyone still want to argue that the MAGATs haven’t taken over ILGOP.


  13. - Skeptic - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:35 am:

    If Demmer or Teresi somehow win in November, they will have plenty of Rauner/Irvin staffers to fill their offices with. Because Rodney’s office will likely no longer be a refuge either…


  14. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:38 am:

    ==Could the time of year be a factor? ==

    I think that’s the biggest factor. It also hurts that the only contested races are between repellent candidates.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:38 am:

    ===somehow win in November===

    Gonna need some real cash behind them.

    Seems like all the piggy banks left Dodge


  16. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:42 am:

    ==Devore could end up being an albatross to serious IL GOP candidates. ==

    He could/would, but…Bailey. It’s like in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.
    “I can’t swim.”
    “Are you crazy, the fall is gonna kill you.”

    It’s funny, tho, bc a few months ago I thought maybe Richard Irvin was going to be saddled with a lunatic Senate candidate. Now it looks more like the relatively respectable Salvi will be saddled with Bailey.


  17. - Real - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:19 am:

    I’m seeing some people say that Irvin would somehow do better than Bailey in the general.. but if nobody is voting for Irvin in the primary why would they want to vote for him in the general? People don’t see Irvin as a moderate to a far right Bailey. They see Irvin for who he is and that is an opportunist and charlatan.


  18. - JS Mill - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:24 am:

    =turnout is historically low so far.=

    Tomorrow is the actual in person election. Maybe give it a beat.

    DeVore, sheesh what is wrong with the ILGOP?

    That was rhetorical BTW.


  19. - Soccermom - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:28 am:

    Arsenal — facts are important.

    So let me provide a correction: The fall will PROBABLY kill you.


  20. - Soccermom - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:28 am:

    And let me just add — geez, Louise. The next time someone tells me my candidate is doomed because the opponent has more money, I am going to laugh and laugh and laugh. (And then I’m going to ask the DGA to get into the race to help us.)


  21. - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:31 am:

    “Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely Republican voters.”

    I was sent this poll over SMS on Friday.

    They consider me a ‘likely republican voter’. Their polling pool needs some work.


  22. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:32 am:

    ==I’m seeing some people say that Irvin would somehow do better than Bailey in the general==

    I think Irvin would perform a little better than Bailey, just because he’ll have enough money. But I don’t think it’d be a huge difference.


  23. - BTO2 - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:56 am:

    Too bad for John Milhiser, decent guy.

    Going to be a tad tough to decide on an moderate candidate(s).


  24. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:59 am:

    “They see Irvin for who he is and that is an opportunist and charlatan.”

    Trump just said at the rally that establishment RINO’s are worse than Democrats sometimes, and specifically cited a reason: no one really knows where they stand (paraphrasing).


  25. - New Day - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 11:28 am:

    When the Griff slate started coming together I immediately thought they were making big mistakes. But one of the biggest is one nobody is talking about. Why did they relegate Tom Demmer to Treasurer? Demmer is clearly one of the few decent candidates in the entire Republican Party. With money, Demmer would have won the primary for governor in a walk and would have been a competitive general election candidate. Instead he’s going to lose his office, run a shoe-string race which he will then lose to Willy’s favorite Democrat, Mike Frerichs, and never be heard from again.

    As a Democrat that makes me happy but it seems just so so dumb.


  26. - Rufus T. Firefly - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 11:49 am:

    Anybody seen any polling on Alexi vs Anna?


  27. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 11:56 am:

    -Too bad for John Milhiser, decent guy.-

    He’s the one of the down ballot folks that ran up against a pretty well known opponent and didn’t get much money to do anything about it. His campaign also did a terrible job of messaging, running an AG campaign for SOS. I wonder if he would have had better success in that race than retread Steve Kim, but we’ll never know.


  28. - Precinct Womyn - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 1:34 pm:

    Rufus asks about the Alexi-Anna showdown.
    I haven’t seen any polls but if walking my precinct as I canvass for Marie Newman is any indication, Alexi will win bigly. Even my fellow fire-breathing feminists think Anna’s too ethically compromised.


  29. - Proud Papa Bear - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    “Alexi will win bigly”
    Most (non-politically obsessed) people I speak with favor Alexi. They don’t say why. They don’t recall him ever being connected to anything shady. They don’t even remember him running for Senate in 2010. There’s just something about his name recognition that’s giving him a boost.


  30. - Not a Mahlen Voter - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 3:40 pm:

    Did the helpful folks point out to the 5.8% who said they were voting for Mahlen that she was removed from the ballot?


  31. - Boone's is Back - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 3:44 pm:

    Wow, so is this why Ken Griffin is moving citadel? Pretty embarrassing showing for his guy.


  32. - MyTwoCents - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 5:04 pm:

    Outside of the Irvin implosion, depending on what happens tomorrow the Griffin slate could be a complete disaster. The sad thing is it didn’t necessarily have to be this way. I saw countless Bailey/Irvin/Pritzker/DGA ads, but the Milhiser & Kim ads like 1 time each and this the Springfield area. If the slate had gotten more than Irvin’s scraps, given the nature of the AG & SOS primaries, those 2 could could have done a better job of building name recognition.


  33. - Do It - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 6:58 pm:

    Loving the Dan Brady route. Would not be bullied out of the race by Mike Z.

    Brady perhaps the lone GOP statewide victor in November. Old school, sane, a good guy. Keep Z a hundred miles from your campaign Dan.


  34. - Real - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 7:44 pm:

    -When the Griff slate started coming together I immediately thought they were making big mistakes. But one of the biggest is one nobody is talking about. Why did they relegate Tom Demmer to Treasurer? Demmer is clearly one of the few decent candidates in the entire Republican Party.-

    Clearly, Griffin was not interested in Gov candidate capable of thinking on his own.


  35. - Win it - Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 7:55 pm:

    == Loving the Dan Brady route. Would not be bullied out of the race by Mike Z.

    Brady perhaps the lone GOP statewide victor in November. Old school, sane, a good guy. Keep Z a hundred miles from your campaign Dan==.

    Brady had his race ran by 21 year old.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the holidays
* And the winners are…
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Update to previous editions
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Report: Far-right Illinois billionaires may have skirted immigration rules
* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards (Updated)
* Energy Storage Brings Cheaper Electricity, Greater Reliability
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Live coverage
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller