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Fun with numbers

Thursday, Sep 29, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Wirepoints

Crime is perhaps the top issue for Illinois voters this year and the extraordinarily divisive SAFE-T Act is central to it.

Nope. Not even close.

That piece was published today - a day after WGN released its poll

But despite Bailey’s efforts, and an onslaught of political ads paid for by Dan Proft’s “People Who Play By the Rules” PAC, Illinois likely voters say the economy is still the No. 1 issue (35%) driving their vote in November, followed by threats to democracy (17%) and abortion access (14%).

Crime is fourth on that list, with only 10% of voters picking the issue as their top concern. Of that group, the advantage does go to Bailey. About 58% of those who say crime is their top issue support his campaign.

* Speaking of that poll…


That 2022 primary poll was taken in May, before Bailey started surging. Polls can’t predict the future, they can only give you a snapshot of the time they were taken.

The Quinn poll was taken for the Tribune, not WGN. Another poll taken for the Trib in late October had Quinn behind by 2.

I don’t know what other independent polls are out there, but that internal poll that Fox 32 ridiculously hyped was a push poll and Bailey was still trailing.

* One more…


The simple explanation is that the story has an error. It doesn’t match up with the actual poll results. And, excuse me, but how does it hurt Bailey that WGN screwed up a story that more people saw than will see its accurate tweet?

That being said, I do have one issue with the poll and I told subscribers about it today.

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35 Comments
  1. - Roman - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 10:45 am:

    Well run campaigns start with a poll, see where the voters are, then go and meet them with a message tailor made for their concerns. Heck, even mediocre campaigns do it that way. It’s Politics 101.

    Proft and Bailey have done the opposite. They decided crime is thee issue and have spent their time and Uihlein’s money convincing voters it should be their primary focus. It hasn’t worked.

    But as Oswego Willy says, the checks still cash. Proft has enough scratch to build himself one heck of hurricane shelter down there.


  2. - slow down - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 10:45 am:

    Every losing campaign says that the polls are wrong. And Bailey is losing.


  3. - Google Is Your Friend - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 10:48 am:

    Bailey going to storm the capitol or something if he doesn’t get poll numbers he likes?


  4. - TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 10:50 am:

    –Nope. Not even close.–

    I like how they used the perfect weasel words to make what they printed technically accurate.

    ‘Perhaps’ wirepoints is funded by space aliens.

    It’s not, but perhaps it is.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:00 am:

    It’s always a race… IPI, Wirepoints, or Proft…

    Which of those three is willing to be outright ignorant to facts to grift as much cash as possible before their utter phoniness is exposed enough that they need to pivot again to grift.

    It’s a treat, really, when all three are aligned so then the grifting can be collective… not competitive.

    Phony reality, phony issues, real race baiting… real anger too.

    It’s fun. It’s fun, and the checks cash the same.


  6. - Jerry - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:07 am:

    Don’t 4 out of 5 dentists recommend sugarless gum for their patients who chew gum. That’s what the TV commercial said!

    How about if Bailey took a basic stats class.


  7. - We’ll See - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:09 am:

    Proft (Mr Fake News himself) decrying WGN errors and claiming they’re trying “…. to drive a desired outcome” is rich.


  8. - New Day - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    It’s one poll. The only reason Proft and the Bailey campaign are frothing at the mouth over it is that it’s the first actual public poll and it validates everyone’s belief about the state of the race. It also proves that their strategy of all crime all the time is dumb and not working. So naturally they’re losing their minds over it.

    Is Emerson the best pollster in the world? Nope, but it’s not bad (538 rating of A-). But again, until there is more public polling, we’ll just have to live with this as the snapshot of where the race stands 40 days out.


  9. - Larry Bowa Jr. - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    “Bailey going to storm the capitol or something if he doesn’t get poll numbers he likes?”

    He doesn’t have the spiritual grip on his flock to get them storming government buildings, otherwise, yes, that’s exactly the kind of thing they’d do.
    But do you seriously think he’s going to concede and admit the outcome is a legitimate reflection of the voters’ will? That’s not in the playbook anymore. It’s not possible to have an election in which republicans are not either victorious or victimized by a nefarious “deep state” plot that caused them to lose.


  10. - New Day - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    I should say that as well. The real reason they’re angry about this poll is that the Truth Hurts.


  11. - Stormsw7706 - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:19 am:

    Poor poor Danny. Raising a fuss and no one is paying attention. It’s interesting he is or acting politics when his new state is in crisis. Maybe his money would be better spent aiding his community


  12. - New Day - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:27 am:

    Anecdotally, crime is definitely a major issue in Chicago. The feeling of being insecure when you ride the L or even walk in certain neighborhoods is quite disconcerting. But as Rich points out, those people are overwhelmingly Democrats. Seems like this strategy of Proft and Griffin supported their biases but wasn’t supported by the data. I have yet to see one poll that shows crime is the top concern for voters.


  13. - H-W - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:40 am:

    Proft has demonstrated his incompetence at influencing elections. Why Republican candidates allow him to participate in their campaigns is an interesting question to ask candidates. I mean, in the case, money isn’t talking in English. Uihlein ought to find another spokesperson.


  14. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:48 am:

    “You can’t tell us we’re losing. Only WE can tell us we’re losing.”


  15. - Hot Taeks - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:49 am:

    For gosh sakes Proft and Bailey, it’s just one poll. It would be nice if we had a group of other recent-ish polls to average it from but we’re lucky to even get this one high quality poll given how expensive and time-consuming polling is combined with the fact that interest in this race isn’t high on the national scale given the Democratic tilt in our state.


  16. - Roadrager - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:51 am:

    ==Anecdotally, crime is definitely a major issue in Chicago. The feeling of being insecure when you ride the L or even walk in certain neighborhoods is quite disconcerting. But as Rich points out, those people are overwhelmingly Democrats.==

    This is the GOP pickle, isn’t it? Irvin was the “tough on crime” messaging candidate with potential crossover appeal, and he got absolutely liquidated in the primary because the GOP base has had it drummed into their heads that any Republican who would attract votes from Democrats is a disloyal RINO. So unless the race is in a solidly red state, the candidate who could win the general is more likely to get whooped in the primary, and vice versa.


  17. - Excitable Boy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:51 am:

    - They decided crime is thee issue and have spent their time and Uihlein’s money -

    Profits ads are geared toward one thing, and one thing only, getting more of Uihlein’s money. They’re message tested for an audience of 1, that’s all.


  18. - Excitable Boy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:52 am:

    *Proft’s, my spellcheck had a Freudian slip.


  19. - MisterJayEm - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:53 am:

    “WGN poll on the IL Gov race is crap and so is the reporting on it.”

    If this poll is “crap,” just how vulgar would one have to get to proportionately characterize the success/failure rate of campaigns backed by Dan Proft?

    It would doubtless result in a mouth full of soap and a lifetime ban.

    – MrJM


  20. - Annonin' - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:55 am:

    Former Gov. Edgar continued to close the door on Bailey with his explanation for his Dan Brady endorsement being “I thought he could win” Last week he said Bailey was the weakest possible candidate JB could have and suggest the Bailey show might do well in Mississipi.

    Doubt this gets much done for Brady, but one never knows. Lexi remains largely invisible on any platform.


  21. - Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:56 am:

    ==Anecdotally, crime is definitely a major issue in Chicago.==

    I have to believe that that is so. But I suspect that after decades of being conditioned to all-powerful mayors, Chicagoans probably put it on MLL’s plate.

    I also think…well, it’s complicated. Because it’s not like Proft is really offering a solution for crime. And to the extent that you can fill in the blanks on that, it would probably be some kind of “lock ‘em up” mindset, right? And that has a done a ton of damage to the same communities that are dealing with high crime right now.


  22. - So_Ill - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:03 pm:

    ==Lexi remains largely invisible on any platform.==

    He’s on my TV playing basketball with kids every time I turn it on.


  23. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:16 pm:

    Now that Democrats have finally started focusing on helping their traditional African-American voters, with bail reform, social equity cannabis revenue and dispensary ownership, it’s time to push back against racist stereotyping and exploitation of POC problems that is coming through in the TV ads and ILGOP platform or election plan this year.

    Do Republicans really have to go the route of terrifying their base and stoking even more hatred of Chicago? They can’t be moderate like Edgar or Republicans of the past? They can’t have a message of hope, kindness and sunshine? Not with the MAGA crowd, that’s for sure.


  24. - Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:18 pm:

    ==Irvin was the “tough on crime” messaging candidate with potential crossover appeal, and he got absolutely liquidated in the primary==

    This is another good point. Bailey has very little credibility on crime, and he’s not even really speaking for himself on the issue.


  25. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:19 pm:

    The real reason they’re angry about this poll is that at some point Proft’s sugar daddy will cut off the flow of cash.


  26. - Downstate in the house - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    I appreciate there are issues above crime (although the polling industry’a battered reputation after 2020 and 2016 should give all hacks some pause). But the crime issue illustrates my party’s inability or unwillingness to walk and chew gum at the same time. We Dems revert to base politics instead of the harder work of persuasion. We need base and persuasion - always working on parallel tracks. Dems wouldn’t be on defense as much.


  27. - New Day - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:23 pm:

    “But I suspect that after decades of being conditioned to all-powerful mayors, Chicagoans probably put it on MLL’s plate.”

    Completely agree. If this were the Mayor’s race we’d be having a very different conversation. But it has been and always will be a bit of a bank shot to blame the governor of the state for crime in your locality.


  28. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:44 pm:

    If there were internal polls showing Bailey with a chance of beating Pritzker, they would not be internal polls, they would be in press releases.

    If Bailey has an internal poll showing him down single digits, he should show it to Capfax, Pearson, or McKinney so they can validate and report it. He should definitely share it with Uhlein so that the check he gets this week is $10 million and not just another $1 million.

    When Uhlein gives $10M+ to Bailey so Bailey can go up on tv, then I’ll believe he has a shot.


  29. - AcademicUnionStateEmployee - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:51 pm:

    ==Former Gov. Edgar ==

    Former Gov. Jim “Pension Ramp” Edgar, that is.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 12:55 pm:

    === Former Gov. Jim “Pension Ramp” Edgar, that is.===

    … which seems to be working, as those payments and paying down debt means better credit railings.


  31. - Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 1:00 pm:

    -If Bailey has an internal poll showing him down single digits, he should show it to Capfax, Pearson, or McKinney so they can validate and report it.-

    They do. It’s the push poll referred to by Rich in the post.


  32. - ChrisB - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 1:06 pm:

    Complaining about polls when you’re media dark with a little over a month to go is embarrassing. You’re not running any media. Why is it so shocking that you’re down double digits?

    What is his campaign even doing? For a farmer who claims he works very hard, his campaign is certainly sitting on their hands doing nothing.


  33. - Walker - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 1:40 pm:

    My guess is that Wirepoints, IPI, Proft and crew are poised to pivot in unison to an economic positioning, bringing in property taxes as driven up by unions, corruption, and fear of continued inflation and recession. It’s their only credible shot at this point, and #1 with swing voters.


  34. - JS Mill - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:40 pm:

    =Why Republican candidates allow him to participate in their campaigns is an interesting question to ask candidates.=

    Because he makes their grievances the focus of his messaging. They don’t have much hope in the statewide races so let’s get on with complaining- seems to be their goal.

    If it isn’t that I don’t know what it could be. Proft is a loser time and time again.


  35. - Ste_with_a_v_en - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:39 pm:

    The campaigns response is almost word for word what Proft said in his show this morning.


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