* Monthly report from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability…

Through the first quarter of the year, base receipts are up a respectable $260 million, despite the fact that base federal sources are $515 million behind last year’s pace. However, once the combined $764 million in one-time ARPA Reimbursement for Essential Government Services funds received in July and August are applied to these totals, the overall gain in State general funds revenues thru September rises from $260 million to $1.024 billion. As will be repeated throughout the fiscal year, these ARPA reimbursements were originally anticipated to be receipted in FY 2022 and were not assumed in the adopted FY 2023 budget. Therefore, the inclusion of the $764 million in ARPA revenues in this fiscal year significantly enhances the FY 2023 revenue outlook.

Also greatly contributing to the impressive overall totals through the 1st quarter of FY 2023 is the State’s economically driven revenue sources. Through September, personal income tax receipts, on the strength of steady employment levels and higher wages, are up $347 million on a net basis. Corporate income tax revenues have yet to tail off from the torrid pace of FY 2022 and are up $201 million net. Net sales tax receipts, despite the fact that more of its revenues are earmarked for the Road Fund in FY 2023, are still $133 million above last year’s pace. The remaining State sources have combined to add an additional $74 million to the 1st quarter gains. While the performance of “transfers in” have been mixed, this category of revenues has combined to provide $20 million towards this overall growth.

It is believed that the current high rates of inflation, unstable market conditions, geopolitical uncertainties, and the assumed absence of additional federal stimulus dollars will create an environment where a slowdown in Illinois’ revenues is inevitable. However, it has not happened yet to FY 2023’s benefit. The revenue gains from the 1st quarter have no doubt provided significant upward pressure on the FY 2023 revenue outlook. With that being said, three-fourths of the fiscal year still remain with plenty of time for things to turn around. This is something that the Commission will continue to monitor as the State enters into the 2nd quarter of the fiscal year.

* Meanwhile, here’s Center Square…

With marijuana and sports betting helping to fill Illinois’ coffers with tax money, some say online gambling isn’t far off.

Six states allow casino gambling online: Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Delaware and Connecticut. But at a recent East Coast Gaming conference, panelists named Illinois as one of the additional states that could soon adopt internet gambling.

Executives said Illinois already possesses the necessary infrastructure and regulatory systems to make internet gambling profitable.

Dave Briggs from PlayIllinois.com said Illinois could soon allow internet gambling simply because of the bottom line.

“In the gambling industry, the online casino part of it is the real moneymaker for both the state and the operators,” Briggs said. “It outpaces sports betting by a lot.”

Michigan reported collecting a whopping $2 billion from internet gamblers since January 2021, easily surpassing projections. […]

Illinois is ranked third nationwide in sports betting handle from January through July 2022, with nearly $5.3 billion bet.

The handle is not the state’s cut, but just to give you some perspective, that $5.3 billion sports betting handle is almost equal to the amount of money the state collected last fiscal year from the corporate income tax, and that was a record year. More info on Illinois sports wagering receipts can be found here.