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COGFA: State to receive big unbudgeted revenue bump from FY23 ARPA funds

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Monthly report from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability

Through the first quarter of the year, base receipts are up a respectable $260 million, despite the fact that base federal sources are $515 million behind last year’s pace. However, once the combined $764 million in one-time ARPA Reimbursement for Essential Government Services funds received in July and August are applied to these totals, the overall gain in State general funds revenues thru September rises from $260 million to $1.024 billion. As will be repeated throughout the fiscal year, these ARPA reimbursements were originally anticipated to be receipted in FY 2022 and were not assumed in the adopted FY 2023 budget. Therefore, the inclusion of the $764 million in ARPA revenues in this fiscal year significantly enhances the FY 2023 revenue outlook.

Also greatly contributing to the impressive overall totals through the 1st quarter of FY 2023 is the State’s economically driven revenue sources. Through September, personal income tax receipts, on the strength of steady employment levels and higher wages, are up $347 million on a net basis. Corporate income tax revenues have yet to tail off from the torrid pace of FY 2022 and are up $201 million net. Net sales tax receipts, despite the fact that more of its revenues are earmarked for the Road Fund in FY 2023, are still $133 million above last year’s pace. The remaining State sources have combined to add an additional $74 million to the 1st quarter gains. While the performance of “transfers in” have been mixed, this category of revenues has combined to provide $20 million towards this overall growth.

It is believed that the current high rates of inflation, unstable market conditions, geopolitical uncertainties, and the assumed absence of additional federal stimulus dollars will create an environment where a slowdown in Illinois’ revenues is inevitable. However, it has not happened yet to FY 2023’s benefit. The revenue gains from the 1st quarter have no doubt provided significant upward pressure on the FY 2023 revenue outlook. With that being said, three-fourths of the fiscal year still remain with plenty of time for things to turn around. This is something that the Commission will continue to monitor as the State enters into the 2nd quarter of the fiscal year.

* Meanwhile, here’s Center Square

With marijuana and sports betting helping to fill Illinois’ coffers with tax money, some say online gambling isn’t far off.

Six states allow casino gambling online: Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Delaware and Connecticut. But at a recent East Coast Gaming conference, panelists named Illinois as one of the additional states that could soon adopt internet gambling.

Executives said Illinois already possesses the necessary infrastructure and regulatory systems to make internet gambling profitable.

Dave Briggs from PlayIllinois.com said Illinois could soon allow internet gambling simply because of the bottom line.

“In the gambling industry, the online casino part of it is the real moneymaker for both the state and the operators,” Briggs said. “It outpaces sports betting by a lot.”

Michigan reported collecting a whopping $2 billion from internet gamblers since January 2021, easily surpassing projections. […]

Illinois is ranked third nationwide in sports betting handle from January through July 2022, with nearly $5.3 billion bet.

The handle is not the state’s cut, but just to give you some perspective, that $5.3 billion sports betting handle is almost equal to the amount of money the state collected last fiscal year from the corporate income tax, and that was a record year. More info on Illinois sports wagering receipts can be found here.

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12 Comments
  1. - JoanP - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 11:50 am:

    More bad news for the spelunkers.


  2. - Norseman - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 11:51 am:

    IL is still a good bet. Go Land of Lincoln.


  3. - MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 11:59 am:

    “Executives said Illinois already possesses the necessary infrastructure and regulatory systems to make internet gambling profitable.”

    Did anyone ever doubt that internet gambling would be profitable?

    There are many valid and serious concerns about internet gambling, but I’m pretty sure that none of them arise from questions about its profitability.

    – MrJM


  4. - AcademicUnionStateEmployee - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 12:02 pm:

    ==More bad news for the spelunkers.==

    Do the spelunkers include the people who advocate for “putting that money entirely toward pensions” and the bill backlog?


  5. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 12:17 pm:

    ===the bill backlog?===

    What backlog?


  6. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 12:42 pm:

    ===the bill backlog?===

    The backlog is down to a couple of days, which isn’t a backlog in anyone’s book.

    UI and pensions are the acknowledged long term issues. Then there’s the mess at DCFS.


  7. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 12:48 pm:

    The message for businesses is the current political power structure is going to help fill tax coffers and be more fiscally responsible, as well as robustly funding government. It’s a great business climate, especially including all the infrastructure and green economy investment. We came from the opposite of this, where government and budgets were deliberately shut down, to try to break political opponents.


  8. - Frisco - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 12:48 pm:

    Illinois sports wagering tax rate 15%
    State revenue over 3 years - $148.6 million

    New York sports wagering tax rate 51%
    State revenue over 6 months of 2022 - $302.3 million


  9. - Eastside - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 1:24 pm:

    This misses the point entirely. COGFA adequately and correctly demonstrated that the “excess”ARPA funds are only “excess” in FY23 because they were suppose to be accounted for in FY22. They were not. There is no net gain here. Simply an accounting in a different fiscal year. The actual, additional and unaccounted for revenue is the $296 million transfer from the Refund Fund.


  10. - Lincoln Lad - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 2:12 pm:

    If readers of this blog believe there is still a bill backlog, what do average guys in the street still believe? There needs to be better messaging from JB and Mendoza to correct this incorrect assumption and belief. This is a huge success story.


  11. - PublicServant - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 3:18 pm:

    The poor and middle class gamble. No wonder “Center” Square is tooting that horn. The rich invest. Don’t come after that whatever happens.


  12. - Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Oct 4, 22 @ 3:34 pm:

    “Bill Backlog” … can anyone explain this link? Do the colleges pay dental claims directly, without going through IOC?

    https://www.deltadentalil.com/employers-groups/soi/dental-claim-payments/


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