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*** UPDATED x1 *** Bailey claims own poll shows him two points down, but Pritzker camp calls the survey “junk”

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. From ABC 7’s story on the Illinois Broadcasters Association poll which has JB Pritzker leading Darren Bailey by 22 points

“It’s really bad news for Darren Bailey. At this point in the campaign, he should be shrinking the lead, not seeing it grow. Pritzker’s putting some distance between himself and Bailey, significant distance and it would be very difficult, if this poll is accurate for Bailey to make up that ground in the next few weeks,” said ABC7 Political Analyst Laura Washington.

The Bailey campaign scoffed at those latest numbers and said their own internal polling shows the race is much closer.

“This is not a legitimate poll. It’s an internet survey and anyone who cares about honest journalism would do a better job of disseminating information to the people. Our polling shows this race is close because JB Pritzker has failed Illinoisans. Darren Bailey is focused on making Illinois safer and more affordable for everyone and we’re confident voters will choose a better direction for Illinois on Election Day,” said Bailey’s campaign spokesperson, Joe DeBose.

* Fox 32

A spokesman for state Sen. Bailey called the results, “laughable.” The survey was conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 11.

7 days ain’t great. I’ll give them that. And the IBA has been less than transparent about the poll’s methodology.

* NBC 5

Mark Harris, a strategist for Bailey, dismissed the findings of the poll, saying that internal polls show the state senator just two points behind Pritzker.

“It coincides with the national environment getting better for Republicans,” he told NBC 5 Political Reporter Mary Ann Ahern. “We’re very confident that this is a close race and our data is showing it getting closer, and I don’t think JB Pritzker would be spending $100 million-plus if he thought this were a 20-point race.”

The Pritzker campaign fired back after the poll’s release, calling the razor-thin margin in Bailey’s internal polling “junk.”

“Darren Bailey’s desperation is showing,” a campaign spokesperson told NBC 5. “Just like the junk internal poll he tried to pass off last month, these numbers are wildly-off-base and inconsistent with all other public polling. Voters know Darren Bailey is too extreme for Illinois, and those who haven’t already voted early for Governor Pritzker will undoubtedly reject Bailey in November.”

The Bailey poll is here. No regional breakdowns and no question asking respondents about past election behavior, which I think is a decent way to check for accuracy. The IBA poll asked about geography, but not past votes.

…Adding… A commenter points out that Bailey’s poll uses a universe of 71 percent white people. Illinois is 62 percent white.

Also, Pritzker never lets off the gas. He didn’t ease up during the 2018 primary, even though he was safely ahead. He never slowed down during the 2018 general against a weak and unpopular Republican incumbent in a big Democratic year. And even after Richard Irvin dropped to third place during the 2022 GOP primary, Pritzker kept right on spending cash.

* Anyway, the Downstate numbers in two of the news media polls are odd. The WGN poll had Bailey ahead by just two points, 45-43 in Downstate. The WBEZ/Sun-Times poll had Downstate at a 40-40 tie. I’d be very curious to see what the IBA’s crosstabs show for that region. But, again, they’re being less than transparent.

*** UPDATE *** Dan Proft press release…

Don’t dismiss this bogus poll. Remember it.

This is how the corrupt and incompetent state-run Chicago press corps works. Use some leftist org like IL Broadcasters Assn to cook up a poll they can then report as ‘news’ to drive the outcome they desire on behalf of their fellow travelers in office. This is unadulterated fake news. RVs not likely voters. +17 on the generic ballot for Dems. There is no scenario in which that is remotely close and everyone who knows anything about polling and turnout modeling in IL knows what I’m saying is correct.

The generic ballot is + Dem in the single digits and trending toward the low single digits–at its height this cycle is was +9 Dems. Correspondingly, Bailey and the other statewides have been following that trend to where they are in striking distance depending on who turns out.

Bailey is the underdog. Of course he is. Every GOP statewide candidate in Illinois is. This trash poll dutifully reported by fake news outlets like WGN–yes, fake news outlets–is an effort to squelch out hope. Talk about voter suppression. They want to quell even the remotest signs of a popular revolt whether it’s over the Purge Law, confiscatory taxes, or the race and gender hustle in schools. Abandon any notion you have any control over your life and any ability to change it. Cede your sovereignty to the Dem Socialists as we have. Don’t think. Follow. That’s their message. They thrive on your fatalism. In fact, the only way people like Pritzker stay in office is if sensible people throw in the towel.

Remember this poll and the useful idiots these Pritzker apparatchiks in the fake news business consider you to be. This is so much bigger than even the governor’s race. Make a decision as to whether or not you want the leadership of virtually every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois to continue lying to you with impunity. On November 8, tell the purveyors of acceptable lies you find them decidedly unacceptable. Use this egregious attempt to gaslight you to stoke the revolt that fells the current political power structure and sends an unmistakable message to the next one: We are in charge. We have some simple demands. We want a better life in Illinois. You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.

Ah, yes, fomenting anger to threaten the news media and “every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois.” Lovely.

       

59 Comments
  1. - Alice Childress - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 9:59 am:

    Can we just get to Election Day? I’m so over all this nonsense.


  2. - Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:00 am:

    When your internal poll is by far the outlier and you’re still losing…


  3. - Chicago Republican - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:02 am:

    the downstate numbers cannot be right.


  4. - Roadrager - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:04 am:

    Our internal polling showed us leading, yet somehow we lost by more than 10 on election night. Now friends, I think you’ll agree that if you ask around to your neighbors and the folks you’re in groups with on Facebook, those numbers simply don’t add up, and we’re going to get to the bottom of this. My good friend Tom DeVore, a victim of similar questionable “vote totals,” has volunteered to represent us in the fight to get to the bottom of what really happened in this election. You can help us with the “Donate” button below this video. May God continue to bless us all.


  5. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:04 am:

    Meh. Demographics are off by a bit. White non-Hispanic population is only 60% of Illinois population, versus 71% in this poll. Hispanic/Latino and Asians are underrepresented.


  6. - Steve - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:06 am:

    2 points down… Put down the crack pipe. Bailey’s odds of losing by 2 are about the same as getting 3 Powerball numbers.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:06 am:

    ===Can we just===

    Got a mouse in your pocket?

    There are billions of websites. Painting, sculpting, poetry, car repair, needlepoint, re-shingling the roof…

    If you’re over it, un-stuck your browser.

    To the post,

    The “22 point” lead seems very heavy, it makes the C-ST/WBEZ poll look smarter to a better measure.

    Thinking in this? Why would Bailey tout he’s behind “2”… and still go after what should be his base voters? Bailey also needs to depress turnout, so making a push in crime where the numbers seem stuck to the overall polling, plus Bailey’s dishonesty to abortion… how can Bailey be touting being only down… “2”… where are the numbers to such a methodology to that?


  8. - New Day - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:07 am:

    If I had to bet, I’d say both of these polls are off by about the same margin so we’re safe saying the lead is between the two - probably 12-15 at this point.


  9. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:17 am:

    “Our polling shows this race is close because JB Pritzker has failed Illinoisans . . .,” said Bailey’s campaign spokesperson, Joe DeBose.

    Is it just me or does being a campaign spokesman sound like a horrible job? The constant negativity, hyperbole, etc would drive me insane. I secretly hope that campaign spokespeople know in their heart of hearts that it is all nonsense.


  10. - Paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:18 am:

    Sorry 10:17 was me for those of you keeping score at home.


  11. - Jerry - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:21 am:

    Paraphrasing here: My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with the girl who saw Darren’s poll results and said gag me with a spoon.


  12. - Responsa - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:29 am:

    Friendly and sincere advice to all candidates and their spokespeople who use polling data to say “look at meeee”: The polls and arguing over them does not move the ball forward one iota.


  13. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:31 am:

    Bailey’s pollster? She’s from Canada, he met her on summer vacation.


  14. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:32 am:

    If Bailey says he’s down two points, Dems should take him seriously and go knock on another couple hundred doors. The time for mocking statements like that doesn’t come until the polling places have closed.


  15. - DougChicago - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:32 am:

    The only nitwit who believes the Bailey poll is Dick Uihlein, much to the relief of Cicero Dan Prof(i)t.


  16. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:35 am:

    ==Meh. Demographics are off by a bit. White non-Hispanic population is only 60% of Illinois population, versus 71% in this poll. Hispanic/Latino and Asians are underrepresented.==

    You would probably expect a midterm electorate to be whiter than the actual population, but that does seem like a pretty big gap.


  17. - Big Dipper - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:39 am:

    Dan still seems bitter about his sixth place finish for Governor. The polls were right then too.


  18. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:39 am:

    So Proft is trying to set up the election was stolen to continue to get money out of the Uihleins is what I’m getting from this.


  19. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:40 am:

    ==You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.==

    So you issue threats. Nice. Taking a page from Donald Trump I see. Pathetic.

    ==We want a better life in Illinois.==

    I’m pretty happy with my life in Illinois now.


  20. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:41 am:

    This poll seems to have touched a nerve, though I can’t imagine why.


  21. - Buford - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:43 am:

    Florida man woke up on wrong side of the bed this morning.


  22. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:43 am:

    ===Ah, yes, fomenting anger to threaten the news media and “every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois.” Lovely.===

    The update? Yep.

    For the audience known as “The Checkbook”

    Proft is using a phony angst… to get real money.

    The truth only exists where this angst is being used, not to the words or thoughts or their meanings.

    Thing is, as Proft cashed checks (they all cash the same), the real damage to democracy, forget the ILGOP just democracy, Proft cares not about America, the “Fourth Pillar” but to EFTs, and those who pay, and those who need to feel heard.


  23. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:45 am:

    This is going to be a gravel road @$$-whipping.


  24. - low level - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:47 am:

    Hey Dan Proft. Not a single black voter I know is impressed with your weird ads. In fact, most have told me they have either 1) ignored that noise or 2) laughed out loud.

    But sure, go ahead and get your money from Uhlien. He really cares about black voters or a downstate farmer.


  25. - Red Ranger - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:48 am:

    By moving to Naples Florida hasnt Dan already ceded his sovereignty?


  26. - Michael Westen - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:49 am:

    According to fivethirtyeight.com, the last poll Research America did in Illinois was released 7-10 days before the 2016 Democratic primary. The poll had Hillary Clinton beating Bernie Sanders by 42 points. She won by 1.2. So only 41 points off. Not exactly going to put Gallup out of business.


  27. - Hello Friend - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:52 am:

    @Rich: was it IBA or INBA? I swore I thought I saw it was the latter somewhere.

    Re: Proft, uh, if he actually took a survey of IBA membership it’s not as left as he would seem. Don Quixote would be jealous of the windmill jousting here.


  28. - Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:56 am:

    -You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.-

    Next for what, tough guy?


  29. - Kayak - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:58 am:

    And according to Baileys poll, he’s also a hard workin man. I’ll keep my chips on Pritzker who clearly outworks him night and day.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 10:59 am:

    ===According to===

    1) it was a primary.

    2) show me what group is not being measured

    3) it’d be a double digit flip, so subtle, that two parties, not two candidates of one party, find a place with the Trump cult

    Please don’t operate heavy machinery under what you’ve taken.


  31. - Anon E Moose - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:05 am:

    Didn’t Dan Proft move to Florida with Rauner and Griffin? Just can’t keep away from Illinois, huh?


  32. - Vote Quimby - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:06 am:

    ==We want a better life in Illinois.==

    Profit says from another state…


  33. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:07 am:

    If you believe when Proft uses “we” when discussing Illinois…

    *You* are his mark. Proft thanks you.


  34. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:12 am:

    ===Not exactly going to put Gallup out of business. ===

    Agreed, although they did get close to the final Trump numbers.

    Using registered voters instead of likely is just dumb on their part as well. And nobody “registers” their party affiliation in Illinois. Lots of issues with this poll, but it doesn’t appear to be an outlier. Proft’s do appear to be the outliers, and he’s being less than transparent as well. I asked for all toplines and some xtabs from his last poll and was denied anything at all.


  35. - btowntruthfromforgottonia - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:13 am:

    Pritzker needs to run like he is 3 points down.
    Bailey is running like he’s 3 points up and doesn’t care about independent voters.


  36. - New Day - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:14 am:

    “You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.”

    So glad Dan isn’t pulling his punches. And you’re next for what? The kind of political treatment that’s going to lead to yet another loss for Dan Proft with these ads that everyone thinks are crazy? Oh no, you’re not going unleash Charles Thomas on another poor victim…how will anyone survive.

    “You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.” Some Florida resident is unhinged.


  37. - MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:14 am:

    When reading Dan Proft’s press release, please keep in mind that you are not the target audience. And it’s not the candidates nor the campaigns nor the voters nor the press.

    As with everything that he does under his own name, Proft’s rant has a single intended audience of two people and their last names are Uhline.

    – MrJM


  38. - Alice Childress - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:24 am:

    Willy, chill. I watch TV and listen to online streaming radio. So no, ain’t no mouse in my pocket, but I have eyes and ears. Your constant need to dumb down some comments, at times, is unnecessary and demeaning.

    TO THE POST:

    Yes, I’m over it. It’s repetitive. Polls haven’t shifted. Opinions haven’t shifted. AND neither candidates’ positions have shifted. It’s the same drivel over and over, so yes, I wish it was Election Day today. Politics have become so polarized that it’s rinse repeat everyday.

    Have blessed day Willy, seriously.


  39. - Pundent - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:29 am:

    One thing is clear, Dan Proft doesn’t care much for the Republican party and it’s future. It’s all about stoking grievances for grift. And the party seems powerless to it.


  40. - Bigtwich - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    Don’t dismiss this bogus Dan Proft press release. Remember it.


  41. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:45 am:

    “fake news outlets like WGN”

    loooollll
    Fake news outlet with many Proft/Bailey TV ads and probably watched by many Republican voters, based on the number of such commercials on that station. Nice job attacking a favorable media outlet and thus many sympathetic viewers.


  42. - low level - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 11:50 am:

    Wait, Proft is in Naples, FL? Tough Dan does his show from there? I must have missed that.


  43. - low level - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:00 pm:

    ==“Make a decision as to whether or not you want the leadership of virtually every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois to continue lying to you with impunity.”==

    Straight out of the Nazi playbook


  44. - Simple Questions - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:07 pm:

    1. Who is a better opponent against Pritzker ? Rauner or Bailey?

    2. What was final number that Pritzker defeated Rauner by?

    My thoughts are Rauner was stronger- incumbent and money- so how does Bailey make it different ?


  45. - Sir Reel - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:22 pm:

    Bailey’s “own internal polling” is him asking his campaign staff who they’ll vote for. And even then, he’s 2 points behind.

    I did my “own internal polling” and it turns out I’m young, handsome and rich.


  46. - Jibba - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:38 pm:

    ===the Purge Law, confiscatory taxes, or the race and gender hustle in schools. Abandon any notion you have any control over your life and any ability to change it. Cede your sovereignty to the Dem Socialists as we have.===

    Talk about preaching to the converted. This word salad is unintelligible to everyone else.


  47. - DougChicago - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:42 pm:

    Cicero Dan Prof(i)t always sets himself up to win.

    On November 9 the storyline will be Bailey was within 2 but the horrible fake news media pushed fake polls and so deflated all the Bailey enthusiasm that they just stayed home.

    But, have no fear, I Cicero Dan Prof(i)t will be back in 18 months with a whole new load of Bailey-like candidates to save the day — and keep my bank account full of Dick Uihlein’s money.

    This leads to enormous losses but, alas, Uihlein will fund a rinse and repeat.


  48. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:14 pm:

    =This is going to be a gravel road @$$-whipping.=

    I learned a new phrase today. That was hysterical.

    =confiscatory taxes=

    Says the guy who doesn’t pay taxes and gets all kinds of free taxpayer funded subsidies.

    =Cede your sovereignty to the Dem Socialists as we have=

    Does anyone actually feel that way? We don’t lock our doors, don’t have strange trespassers or murderers in our yard. I just bought a new gun last week. Going to do a ton of hunting this fall.

    I am pretty much doing what I want when I want as are most folks I know.


  49. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:18 pm:

    ===Remember this poll and the useful idiots these Pritzker apparatchiks in the fake news business consider you to be. This is so much bigger than even the governor’s race. Make a decision as to whether or not you want the leadership of virtually every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois to continue lying to you with impunity. On November 8, tell the purveyors of acceptable lies you find them decidedly unacceptable. Use this egregious attempt to gaslight you to stoke the revolt that fells the current political power structure and sends an unmistakable message to the next one: We are in charge. We have some simple demands. We want a better life in Illinois. You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.===

    And that’s all Dan Proft has to offer: his anger. No solutions, no ideas, nothing but foaming at the mouth anger. Remember, everyone else is lying to you, only Dan Proft has the guts to give it to you straight. Don’t listen to elites and experts, your life sucks because of them. They don’t care about you, only Dan Proft cares about you. Just follow his advice and soon we’ll tear down the system and only then will we have freedom and the better life we all deserve.

    He’s an angry nihilistic egomaniac and he always was. Anger is his stock in trade, his currency and his net worth. I hope he ends up bankrupt soon.


  50. - TJ - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:22 pm:

    I did a poll of my immediate family. Turns out I’m more popular than Pritzker!

    Looks like I’m gonna be the next governor.

    /baileylogic


  51. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:24 pm:

    ===So no, ain’t no mouse in my pocket===

    Then leave the “we” out if it.

    If you come to this site to say you’re tired of hearing about politics and campaigns, you are clearly lacking the idea that you have free will, and can move on.

    Why should I chill? It’s actually pretty funny when one comments about they are tired of politics and campaigns on a blog dedicated, in part, to campaigns and politics. Funny and sad.

    ===Your constant need to dumb down some comments, at times, is unnecessary and demeaning.===

    I can’t help what people write, some are quite the Facebook rants, if one doesn’t like that called out, Facebook is down the dial.

    Lemme see if I can find a Facebook screech…

    ===Polls haven’t shifted. Opinions haven’t shifted. AND neither candidates’ positions have shifted. It’s the same drivel over and over, so yes, I wish it was Election Day today. Politics have become so polarized that it’s rinse repeat everyday.===

    Anything else?

    To the post,

    ===On November 8, tell the purveyors of acceptable lies you find them decidedly unacceptable. Use this egregious attempt to gaslight you to stoke the revolt that fells the current political power structure and sends an unmistakable message to the next one: We are in charge. We have some simple demands. We want a better life in Illinois. You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.===

    This is an exacting plea for more money to Proft (himself) after November 8.

    It’s always about the dollars


  52. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:25 pm:

    ==My thoughts are Rauner was stronger- incumbent and money- so how does Bailey make it different ?==

    I think that’s right, but Bailey has the advantage of running in a better national environment (if not one as good as he might’ve thought he had during the primary). So I expect Bailey to keep it a little closer.


  53. - ;) - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:35 pm:

    How is it wealthy Republicans still give this guy money? He’s just awful, all around.


  54. - Baloneymous - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 1:59 pm:

    ==My thoughts are Rauner was stronger-===

    I would think that too, but I just looked at the 2018 polls and Rauner was polling high 20s to mid 30s from June-November 2018 which I thought was just crazy at the time but then Rauner only got 39% of the vote. Bailey is polling high 30s to even low 40s (Fabrizio) from June-October 2022. So if the polls are right, Bailey might end up doing better than Rauner who lost to Pritzker by 16 points in 2018. Pritzker may only beat Bailey by 8-12 points.


  55. - low level - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 3:00 pm:

    Proft : I have simple demands… that Dick and Elizabeth keep writing me checks.


  56. - Heather - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 3:39 pm:

    =fomenting anger to threaten=

    This is THE Trump way. It’s unpatriotic and dangerous but who cares if you’re looking to get rich off of politics via conservative sugar daddies. I wouldn’t be surprised if Little Dan doubles down next week when he realizes that he’s created a bigger mess for the Illinois GOP and Bailey. Historically speaking, it doesn’t end well (think Mussalini) but a lot of innocent people get hurt along the way.


  57. - Dotnonymous - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 3:52 pm:

    After losing, Bailey will point to this two point poll…and claim he was cheated…just like his endorser and co-signer.


  58. - Dotnonymous - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 4:00 pm:

    “Baileylogic” is a new descriptive term.


  59. - dr. reason a. goodwin - Wednesday, Oct 19, 22 @ 1:07 am:

    The IBA is a leftist organization? Now, THAT’S funny.


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