Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** IBA poll: Pritzker up by 22; Duckworth leads by 19; Raoul ahead by 18
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** IBA poll: Pritzker up by 22; Duckworth leads by 19; Raoul ahead by 18

Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC 5

In the governor’s race, Pritzker holds a commanding lead in the poll, picking up 49.7% of the vote. State Sen. Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee in the race, trails by 22 points at 27.7%, while Libertarian candidate Scott Schluter is at 6.3%. […]

The story was similar in two other statewide races, according to the poll. Incumbent Attorney General Kwame Raoul holds a 42.6-to-25.2% lead over Republican contender Thomas DeVore, while Libertarian candidate Dan Robin is polling at 5.7%.

A large chunk of voters, 22.3%, are undecided in the race, while 4.2% say they won’t vote for any of the candidates on the board.

In the race for Illinois’ Senate seat, incumbent Sen. Tammy Duckworth holds a 48.2-to-28.5% lead over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Libertarian Bill Redpath received 5.5% of the vote, while 14.2% of voters are undecided in the race.

According to the story, this Research America, Inc. poll of 1,000 registered voters has a 3.1 percent margin of error. No dates were mentioned in the piece.

*** UPDATE *** Toplines are here. (Hat tip to MrJM)

…Adding… Some more questions

Q9. Do you feel the issue of crime will have a positive or negative impact for…?

J.B. Pritzker

    Positive impact 12.7%
    Negative impact 20.3%
    No Opinion / No answer 6.1%
    Crime not a top issue 60.9%

Darren Bailey

    Positive impact 15.8%
    Negative impact 10.4%
    No Opinion / No answer 12.9%
    Crime not a top issue 60.9%

It’s just not moving the needle, even though 39 percent rated crime as one of their top three issues.

       

14 Comments
  1. - Dotnonymous - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:15 pm:

    Commander Pritzker to ground control…comin’ in hot.


  2. - Norseman - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:17 pm:

    Fingers crossed that the poll is correct.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:23 pm:

    Whew.

    The big winner in this *snapshot* is only Raoul.

    If this poll is a good measure, and with the last poll by the C-ST/WBEZ, things are where they need to be with early voting… blocking and tackling towards GOTV… now it’s voting these numbers to a reality.

    I’ve liked where the Pritzker’s folks have gone about their business. It’s difficult to believe Bailey is not known, and also not framed as Pritzker and Crew hope voters see him.

    For me, all this poll does differently is reinforces the real and significant need to have a robust GOTV, and that robust GOTV alllowing those Dem pluses are heard and heard not only with Guv, but Senate, AG, and ILSC

    It’ll be up to CongressCritters and the statehouse folks to drive numbers like this deep into the races in both those instances


  4. - don the legend - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:49 pm:

    With the recent zombie and vampire rankings, is it possible the if the ILGOP is trounced that maybe they will be for sure dead? /s


  5. - Responsa - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:49 pm:

    ==A large chunk of voters, 22.3%, are undecided in the race,==

    Well then, this obviously calls for more cowbell. I mean, it calls for more political ads. (I keed I keed.)


  6. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:52 pm:

    Bailey and Proft are campaigning for the hardcore MAGA/GOP base voter. They’re apparently doing a great job.


  7. - AcademicUnionStateEmployee - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:57 pm:

    ==Libertarian Bill Redpath==

    Could Bill at least be distantly related to Springfield alderman Chuck Redpath?


  8. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 6:16 pm:

    You can view the entire results here: https://files.constantcontact.com/84ddd16b001/e1b77591-2022-4f79-97b0-008bfba7506b.pdf?rdr=true

    (sorry about the ridiculously long link)

    – MrJM


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 6:46 pm:

    Thanks - MisterJayEm -

    The update?

    ===It’s just not moving the needle, even though 39 percent rated crime as one of their top three issues.===

    The goal of the exercise is to win elections.

    You can be winning on a policy plank, winning that allegedly puts the issue “bad” for a candidate…

    … but if doesn’t move numbers, what exactly are you winning?

    “Good” campaigns find wedge issues.

    “Functionally competent” campaigns find issues that move numbers and maximize the issue to win the day.

    Voters seemingly have “made up their minds” in this very specific and stand alone snapshot poll;

    Pritzker on crime or Bailey on crime, I’m not changing my vote to them on crime.

    Pritzker under water on crime and still up, in this snapshot, over 20 points? I mean, Bailey is well above water on crime… and in this snapshot, Pritzker leading by over 20 points?

    Early voting is going on Bailey Crew.

    Now what?


  10. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 7:48 pm:

    “Commander Pritzker to ground control…comin’ in hot.”
    That’s what he needs to do.
    Run like he is 3 points down and crank up the ground game.


  11. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 7:50 pm:

    “Bailey and Proft are campaigning for the hardcore MAGA/GOP base voter. They’re apparently doing a great job.”

    That right there.
    The stuff they have been putting out runs off “independent” voters.


  12. - Jibba - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 7:53 pm:

    Must burn Devore that half of Illinois has never heard of him.


  13. - Skeptic - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 8:56 am:

    “Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee in the race, trails by 22 points” I wonder how many Republicans see that and think that he’s losing because he’s not conservative enough?


  14. - JoeMaddon - Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:41 pm:

    LOL at doing a poll of registered voters, and not likely voters, at this point in the race.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Pritzker calls some of Bears proposals 'probably non-starters,' refuses to divert state dollars intended for other purposes (Updated)
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Friends of the Parks responds to Bears’ lakefront stadium proposal
* It’s just a bill
* Judge rejects state motion to move LaSalle Veterans' Home COVID deaths lawsuit to Court of Claims
* Learn something new every day
* Protect Illinois Hospitality – Vote No On House Bill 5345
* Need something to read? Try these Illinois-related books
* Illinois Hospitals Are Driving Economic Activity Across Illinois: $117.7B Annually And 445K Jobs
* Today's quotables
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller