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Campaign notebook

Friday, Oct 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 2018’s inflation-adjusted spending was $72.8 million, compared to $65 million in ad spending this year to date. So, 2022 is not actually a record

According to [AdImpact, a Chicago media analytics firm], combined spending on TV and radio since July 1 has hit the $65 million mark. A few more ads likely will be purchased, but the $65 million includes payments for ads that will run over the next two and a half weeks before the Nov. 8 election.

Either way, it appears to be a record figure. In 2020, a reported $47 million was spent on political media ads here. That was a drop from 2018 when the total was $62 million. But that election featured the battle of the billionaires for governor with J.B. Pritzker taking on the well-off then-incumbent Bruce Rauner and his super-rich friend, Ken Griffin.

Also from the Crain’s article

However, particularly notable is spending, even on broadcast TV, for seats in the state House and Senate. Any single House district represents only a tiny fraction of the Chicago area, less than 2%. So 98% of the money spent on those ads by a particular candidate is, in a sense, wasted. But those ads are still coming and, anecdotally, more state rep candidates are on Chicago TV than ever before.

In 2020, the House Democrats ran Chicago broadcast ads for 11 candidates, about what they’re doing this year so far. But they went up pretty early this year in some races.

Subscribers have been getting a full rundown of these ads in both chambers, including another one today. And, sure, those ads reach far more people who don’t live in the district than those who do. But the spending is about reaching as many people who vote in the district as possible, and broadcast is still a valuable tool which has been shown to work time and time again.

* Foster, Casten and Schneider are targeted by a Dick Uihlein-funded PAC…


* Click here for the debunking…

* Along the same lines…


* Charles Thomas interview excerpt

The radio interview grew intense when Thomas accused Pritzker of taking Blacks for granted during his first term in office.

Thomas said, “The reason I’m doing what I’m doing right now is not because they’re paying me $50,000. Keep in mind I got expenses too. I got to pay people that work with me. But why I’m doing this is because of this, ‘if you ain’t a Democrat, you ain’t Black.’ This [President] Joe Biden BS. I’m tired of that. I’m not going to do that anymore. And I’m not going to have JB Pritzker come up here and talk about he’s going to give us equity in the weed business, and we got nothing. Zero. He took us for granted. He played us.”

When asked where Bailey stands on the cannabis issue, Thomas replied, “Darren Bailey voted against cannabis being legalized. But I did ask him very pointedly, I said, ‘what would you have done if you had been governor and the legislature Democratic supermajority overruled you and legalized cannabis despite your veto? He said, well I would have to make sure everybody got their fair share. And I said does that mean Black folks would have got 15 to 20 percent of the stores that are already there. He said, ‘well I guess so if that is what equity is.’

“I guess so.” Well, that changes everything. /s

* ILGOP…

“From Pritzker’s tax increases to Bidenflation, Nikki Budzinski has made a career out of making life more expensive for Illinois residents,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Don Tracy. It’s troubling that as Illinois residents struggle with Pritzker’s taxes and Biden’s inflation - that she helped cause as Budget Director - that Budzinski has been able to do so well for herself.”

* I missed this one from the other day…

Indicted former Speaker of the Illinois House Mike Madigan’s latest corruption charges involving AT&T amplify just how complicit current Illinois House Speaker Chris Welch and Democratic Party of Illinois Chair and State Representative Lisa Hernandez - both major recipients of Madigan Money - were in allowing corruption to run without restrictions in the Democratic party.

“Speaker Welch and Chairwoman Hernandez abdicated their responsibility to the people of Illinois to cover for Mike Madigan and were rewarded for their loyalty by obtaining major leadership positions in the Democratic Party,” said Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin. “What do they have to say now about the corruption charges against their leader and political godfather? The people of Illinois deserve to know.”

Two years ago, after ComEd admitted to a nearly ten-year scheme to bribe former Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin demanded the creation of a special committee to investigate Madigan’s corrupt activity and determine grounds for discipline. Instead of running a real investigation, Welch, who was chosen to ‘lead’ the committee by Madigan, called it a “show trial” and shut down the committee without issuing any conclusions or findings after only three sham meetings, one witness and no subpoenas.

“Welch and Hernandez presided over a sham ‘Special Investigation’ into then-Speaker Madigan’s role in the ComEd scandal. They used it to provide him political cover, and were rewarded for their ‘hard work’,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Don Tracy. “The Democrats talk about the defining choice in this election, and they are correct - we are very different. Democrats cover for corruption to protect their power and Republicans want to take it away and give it back to the people of Illinois.”

Welch called the investigation a “political show that was concocted” by Republicans as a “power grab” for the minority party – but federal investigations prove otherwise as corruption charges against Madigan and his accomplices continue to grow.
After successfully shutting down the House investigation into Madigan, Welch was promoted to Speaker of the House and Hernandez was elected as the new chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Illinois. All three Democrats on the investigative panel were funded by campaign committees controlled by Speaker Madigan who had given about $585,000 to Manley, nearly $133,000 to Hernandez and more than $100,000 to Welch, according to state election board records as reported by WBEZ.

“Speaker Welch and Chairwoman Hernandez had the opportunity to live up to their oaths of office and end the pervasive corruption that has plagued our state,” said House Deputy Republican Leader Tom Demmer who served on the committee. “Instead, they chose to protect the power of politicians and political insiders. They failed the committee, they failed the people of Illinois and they continue to remain silent and actionless as the culture of corruption continues to operate.”

* Press release…

A press conference in support of HB 5785/SB 4229 will be held Friday, Oct. 21, in Rockford. Together with State Rep. Dave Vella of Rockford and State Sen. Christopher Belt of Swansea, Illinois Comptroller Susana A. Mendoza is championing a measure to ensure timely compensation for the next of kin of fallen first responders and members of the armed forces.

The state’s Line of Duty Compensation Act provides benefits for the families of law enforcement officers, members of the armed forces, firemen, paramedics and other first responders killed in the line of duty. However, the appropriations for these benefits can sometimes run out before the end of a fiscal year, requiring the state legislature to approve supplemental appropriations. That needlessly costs families time when they need support the most urgently. This measure aims to ensure a continuing line of appropriation so that there is no delay to the families.

* Laying the groundwork for a “stolen election” claim? Maybe…


That poll claimed 44 percent of the electorate say they’re Republicans, compared to 47 percent who said they were Democrats. I don’t know of any other Illinois statewide polls in the last 20 years which show a spread that even.

* Miletich

The Illinois Housing Development Authority (IHDA) was able to help thousands of homeowners with their mortgage payments last spring. Now, the Pritzker administration is reopening the mortgage assistance program to help more people who struggled to make payments throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

IHDA is making $115 million available to eligible homeowners starting Nov. 1. People can receive up to $30,000 from the Homeowner Assistance Fund, which is paid directly to a mortgage service or lender.

…Adding… New ad…


* Illinois early vote totals…


* Chicago early vote totals…

The most up-to-date Early Vote and Vote By Mail totals in Chicago, night of Thursday, October 20, 2022.

The Early Vote total stands at 3,485 ballots cast.

Additionally, 21,531 Vote By Mail ballots have been returned to the Board – total VBM applications stands at 189,238.

The grand total is 25,016 ballots cast so far in Chicago for the November 8th General Election.

By Oct. 24, nearly every county will open up new sites for voters to cast ballots

* Isabel’s roundup…

    * Foster, Lauf on opposite sides of abortion debate: But after winning the 11th District GOP primary in June, Lauf removed a section about her stance on abortion from the site. The missing text can be found on the nonpartisan Ballotpedia website.

    * Illinois gubernatorial candidates asked about gender affirming care for minors: “Just look at the Parental Notification Act, Governor Pritzker allows children to make their own decisions without their parents involved, and it is wrong,” Bailey said. “I believe parents have the best interest in mind for their children and that parents should be making that decision, not teachers or doctors or governors.”

    * Schakowsky’s fundraising towers over GOP challenger Rice’s: Schakowsky, of Evanston, collected $166,898 during the year’s third quarter, records show — far from the million-dollar hauls that U.S. Reps. Sean Casten of Downers Grove or Lauren Underwood of Naperville reported for their respective races in the 6th and 14th Districts.

    * Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza touts a financial rebound while her GOP opponent questions her ties to Madigan: Teresi entered October with a little more than $26,000 in her campaign fund after raising more than $38,000 from July through September, including $21,000 from the campaign fund of Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, who headed Griffin’s slate of Republican candidates but finished third in the GOP primary for governor. Mendoza had more than $1.4 million on hand at the start of the month, having raised more than $623,000 and spent a little more than $184,000 in the previous quarter.

    * 18th State House District candidates Gabel and Hutchinson talk key Illinois issues ahead of the election: Hutchinson said the [SAFE-T] act has made Illinois’ neighborhoods unsafe. He said he supports providing police with more resources to address crime in communities instead. Gabel, who supports the act, said because it has not gone into effect yet, it has not affected neighborhood safety. She said she supports the act because it seeks to reform systemic racism in the criminal justice system by addressing use of force, body camera usage and pretrial detention, among other issues. The two candidates did, however, agree that banning automatic assault weapons would better protect communities from gun violence.

    * Incumbent Joe Aiello faces newcomer Daniel Pittman in race for Sangamon County treasurer: This is Pittman’s first time running for elected office. He has received endorsements from Vote Vets, New Politics and Run For Something. Aiello works closely with organizations such as Veterans Administration, American Legion, St. John’s Breadline and others. As for endorsements, “The most important endorsement is from the voter on Election Day,” Aiello said.

    * Recruiters at breweries, schools to fix poll worker shortage: As Adams noted, part of the challenge in recruiting more poll workers is reaching younger people. That’s something Cook County, Illinois (where Chicago is located) has been working hard at. Sally Daly, the deputy clerk of communications at Cook County Clerk’s Office, explained that they’ve been doing outreach with high school students. Even before the students are old enough to vote, they can sign up to work the polls. “We go into [high schools] and make a pitch to students .. .and let them know if they’re 16 years or older they can serve as an election judge. And we pay, they can make some money for a day and also serve their democracy,” she said.

* Endorsements…

       

16 Comments
  1. - Big Dipper - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 12:35 pm:

    ==He said, ‘well I guess so if that is what equity is.’==

    Because Republicans are so big on affirmative action.


  2. - Jocko - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 12:39 pm:

    ==what would you have done if you had been governor==

    “I wouldn’t have done it. But if I did, I would’ve done it better.” /S


  3. - John Lopez - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 12:40 pm:

    The WGN-TV interview with Catalina Lauf broadcast last Sunday, Lauf asked directly about abortion stance by Paul Lisnek. She’s against and would vote against a national abortion ban, and Lauf believes abortion should be decided by the states.

    During same interview, Lauf also told Lisnek she’d vote in favor of codifying same-sex marriage.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 12:51 pm:

    ===Catalina Lauf===

    Is dangerous to American democracy, retweeting conspiracy theorists, members of the Trump family, and in a utter shill-like phony move by you - John Lopez -, the Daily Herald noted the following

    ===Foster spoke about abortion and other issues in a recent online conversation with the Daily Herald. Lauf was invited to participate but didn’t respond. She has shared feelings about abortion in previous interviews and campaign communications but scrubbed references from her website this summer.===

    Lauf is Laufable to any honesty to abortion, following the lead of others that scrubbed how they actually feel, and pretending they are reasonable

    If you are shilling for her for a grift, your phony is understandable

    If you aren’t, you are being wholly disingenuous, again, as you have been when it comes to Lauf.


  5. - benniefly2 - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 12:55 pm:

    Can someone ask the ILGOP why, if POTUS controls inflation, the US inflation rate 2 two points lower than the UK, about equal with Iceland, and only about 1 point higher that New Zealand?


  6. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 1:05 pm:

    The partisan split in Illinois is not 3%, or even close to being as low as 3%. That poll goes right in the garbage.


  7. - Demoralized - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 1:06 pm:

    ==Laying the groundwork for a “stolen election” claim? Maybe…==

    I don’t doubt for a minute that the Bailey supporters will claim election fraud.


  8. - JS Mill - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 1:11 pm:

    =“The reason I’m doing what I’m doing right now is not because they’re paying me $50,000. Keep in mind I got expenses too.=

    Right. And MJM didn’t help pass legislation for com ed and AT&T because of the money either.

    Pull this leg and it plays jingle bells.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 1:26 pm:

    Charles Thomas looking at “equity” as something he’d take Bailey’s word on, while Bailey voted against cannabis legislation would mean more folks, including persons of color possibly facing criminal charges due to cannabis is a tough way to cash that $50,000

    Didn’t Pritzker do something about cannabis convictions, and further if Pritzker did such a thing, was race a factor in who may have been given relief?

    It’s not that Thomas is selective in his thinking, it’s that Thomas’ thinking is selecting what the $50,000 means.


  10. - Steve Polite - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 1:36 pm:

    “44 percent of the electorate say they’re Republicans, compared to 47 percent who said they were Democrats”

    Only 9% have an other or no party affiliation? That seems off to me, so I did a little research. These Pew Research numbers are probably more realistic.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/illinois/party-affiliation/


  11. - jackmac - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 1:45 pm:

    Not sure what was the point of the redstate.com post by Susie Moore that claims the gubernatorial race is tightening (based on a Bailey internal poll by Osage Research that gives Pritker only a two-point lead) when she concedes that a consensus of polling by Real Clear Politics has Pritzker up by an average of 15 points. And that doesn’t include the latest by the Illinois Broadcasters Association that gives the incumbent a 22-point edge.


  12. - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 2:01 pm:

    ===Not sure what was the point of the redstate.com post===

    The headline.


  13. - John Lopez - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 2:50 pm:

    === Catalina Lauf ===

    I don’t shill for anybody, I just care about the truth, and the truth is Lauf told WGN-TV on their news show last Sunday:

    A) She is against a national abortion ban, and believes abortion should be decided by the states, and

    B) She would vote to codify same-sex marriage

    Why Lauf chose not to attend Daily Herald editorial board interview earlier this month is a mystery to me. WGN interview was taped late last week.

    All of a sudden, Democratic Party of Illinois did their 1st press release against Lauf today…looks like those Club for Growth ads launched last Friday against Foster helping Lauf gain traction(?) and Lauf beginning to threaten Foster’s reelection?

    DPI mailer this week more proof Lauf has some momentum.

    And shooting the messenger does not change these facts.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 3:07 pm:

    ===I don’t shill for anybody, I just care about the truth===

    Which is untrue as you pointed out in McHenryBlog that Lauf in fact did scrub her website.

    So, if you’re all about truth and not a shill, why would you forget to include such a thing, you already knew in your advertisement?

    Either you’re shilling or hapless.

    I liked to see if you tweeted it, what ever happened to your Twitter?

    ===gain traction===

    Speculation again, are we going down your pretend roads of why and what ads are doing which to whom?

    ===more proof===

    DPI is a mail indicia, many times, and when you have money, you use money. Not spending money to win is malpractice

    You still writing on that site with those extremists?


  15. - John Lopez - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 4:15 pm:

    === Which is untrue as you pointed out in McHenryBlog that Lauf in fact did scrub her website…You still writing on that site with those extremists? ===

    I stopped writing for McHenry County Blog on July 21. My Illinois Family Action article on Lauf scrubbing her website was published on Sept 15, week to day after it happened. Why Illinois Democrats brought it up six weeks after fact, they just copied Daily Herald.

    === Either you’re shilling or hapless ===

    Your book doesn’t have enough pages. I’m being honest, nothing more.

    === I liked to see if you tweeted it, what ever happened to your Twitter? ===

    All of my articles on Illinois Family Action are tweeted by their Twitter ID. My JohnLopezIL Twitter ID was taken down over a year ago, by my choice.

    === Speculation again, are we going down your pretend roads of why and what ads are doing which to whom? ===

    People like Richard Uilein who have that kind of money don’t spend 6 or 7-figures for nothing. Through my observing super PACs, they rely on their own polling and make their 6 or 7-figure dollar decisions based on metrics. Educated guess is more accurate.

    And finally, please judge for yourself what Lauf said on WGN-TV last Sunday. Here is cued video on abortion, and topic lasted 90 seconds:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGiLKVyxEC4&t=158s

    At 8-minute mark was where Paul Lisnek asked about same-sex marriage, and Lauf gave her stance on that issue, too.

    Have a nice weekend.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 21, 22 @ 4:23 pm:

    ===My Illinois Family Action article on Lauf scrubbing her website was published ===

    That’s all I wanted.

    Thanks for “correcting” me, and admitting that you already knew, but you phonied it up. Hilarious. Thanks.

    Strike one… now…

    ===People like Richard Uilein who have that kind of money don’t spend 6 or 7-figures for nothing.===

    One is not smart because they have money.

    I mean, according to your silly, we should be talking about Irvin being the nominee

    That’s strike two … now…

    ===And finally, please judge for yourself what Lauf said on WGN-TV last Sunday. Here is cued video on abortion, and topic lasted 90===

    You literally just told me Lauf scrubbed her website, “forgot” to say that before I reminded you, now your spreading fake news?

    That’s strike three.

    Ended your own Twitter? Why?

    :)


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Isabel’s afternoon roundup (updated)
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser list
* Feds approve Medicaid coverage for state violence prevention pilot project
* Question of the day
* Bost and Bailey set aside feud as Illinois Republicans tout unity at RNC delegate breakfast
* State pre-pays $422 million in pension payments
* Dillard's gambit
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
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