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Post-campaign notebook

Thursday, Nov 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hilarious…


* Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Supreme court races were a relative bright spot for Republicans on Election Night.

In North Carolina, Republicans swept both contested seats on the court, flipping it to 5-2 GOP control, a near reversal of the 6-1 edge the Democrats held just before the 2020 election. This is a crucial shift, not only for resolving myriad policy questions in a state with a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature, but also because of redistricting.

The midterm election produced a 7-7 Democratic split in the U.S. House for North Carolina, not far from the 50%-49% Trump-Biden breakdown in the state in 2020. But with help from a Republican-friendly court, the GOP might be able to squeeze Democrats out of several congressional seats they just won — which would be a big deal in what promises to be a closely divided House chamber.

The other big Republican supreme court victories came in Ohio, where Republicans prevailed in all 3 seats that were being contested this year. The GOP came into the election with a 4-3 edge on the court, but their fourth vote, Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, often sided with Democrats on redistricting. The makeup of the court remains 4-3 Republican, but O’Connor will not be on the court anymore. […]

That said, Democrats fared better in supreme court races outside of North Carolina and Ohio.

In Illinois, the Democrats swept the 2 seats that were up for grabs, following the first redistricting of the state’s supreme court districts in more than 50 years. With a stronger top-of-the-ticket lineup, the Republicans would have had a shot at flipping the court. But the GOP’s up-ballot nominees were weak, which dragged down the otherwise credible supreme court candidates. With their twin victories, the Democrats now have a 5-2 majority that could last a decade.

Mark Curran was surely weak and not credible at all, but he had significant financial backing. Justice Michael Burke was seen as the early favorite, but Justice Mary K. O’Brien ran a very strong campaign.

* More on outgoing Rep. Avery Bourne

During her pregnancy, Bourne, who identifies as pro-life, was outspoken in the legislative debate concerning abortion.[…]

Bourne’s foil in the debate was state Rep. Kelly Cassidy, D-Chicago.

“They (Republicans) picked the right quarterback to carry the ball and it just set up this clash of the titans,” Cassidy said. “And it was so appropriate… this was a great way to give the topic the dignity it deserved.” […]

“We have a really solid friendship, which for some folks, might be confusing. She’s someone I’ve watched grow as a legislator, and she’s someone I really like. So it wasn’t, ‘I’m debating a pregnant woman.’ It was, ‘I’m debating a colleague with a solid understanding of her perspective of the issue.’”

* Subscribers know more about this, but it’s getting weirder by the day…


The long and short of it is that Rep. Mazzochi is relying on an outdated legal loophole that was apparently left open by mistake. But it’s still on the books, so I dunno.

* Pretty cool story from the governor’s chief of staff…


Here’s the rest

She went to the Women’s March. She attended local school board and Democratic Party meetings. She helped @RepHanbidge get elected in 2018 and then went to work for her.

And then this past spring, Mel called and told me she was being recruited to run in PA’s 151st House District. It was a hard decision - she had to give up her job & half her family’s income to do it. I thought she might decide against it.

But she called me back after a day and said she was going to run. “If I don’t step up when I’m asked then who will?” she told me that day. From the day forward, Mel was all in.

Today, after days of counting and by just a handful of votes, she’s flipping the PA state house for Democrats. I know the last few years has been full of so many hopeless moments for so many - but don’t let anyone tell you the fight isn’t worth it. @Missy4PA is proof that it is.

* Isabel’s roundup…

       

28 Comments »
  1. - TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:05 pm:

    –Failed Frankfort Park District Referendum–

    Lowering the value of your home is certainly one way to reduce your property taxes.

    If you burn it down, the taxes will go even lower. Might be missing the forest for the trees a wee bit… but so it goes.


  2. - cermak_rd - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:06 pm:

    My partner is listening to the Pat Quinn press conference (I didn’t now he was a fan of Pat) My goodness it is circuitous. He has talked about property taxes, referenda easing, easing up on signatures for ballots.
    It sounds like he wants to give us CA’s electoral system and I am not a fan.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:09 pm:

    ===You had such a wonderful career.’” At age 30, state Rep. Avery Bourne, R-Morrisonville, says she has plenty of career still ahead of her.===

    It’s still a head shaker why Bourne would run for Lt. Governor. Bourne had so many choices outside ending her legislative career as Griffin’s choice, albeit starting her career as a Rauner acolyte.

    If Bourne’s passion turned out to be policy, stating that after Rauner and Griffin both have left Illinois would’ve given her freedom in the legislature, a chance to even start over, rebuild, but now that’s not her “next”.

    It should be noted, however, as a legislator Bourne voted continually and consistently to hurt Illinois’ most vulnerable and needy during the budget fight where Governor Rauner held a state hostage.

    Bourne’s choices, while thoughtful, were thoughtful… to Rauner only… for that whole General Assembly.

    There are so many likable folks in governing, the General Assembly, the statewides. Some of the most interesting, fun, people that you can enjoy outside the job(s), there’s no reason to think Bourne is not one who isn’t liked, who was never thought of badly by colleagues, someone who is one you would befriend.

    As a legislator, for me, with all Raunerites, voting in concert with Ken Dunkin and elements that did not have the best interests of Illinois in mind… as a legislator whose switch is the measure… I wish her well in her next chapter away from a voting switch… like all Raunerites. They can leave.

    I wish Bourne well, and I wish her good luck.


  4. - Just Me 2 - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:11 pm:

    It just like Pat Quinn to have a big press conference to announce he is not doing anything. I’m surprised he didn’t do it on Sunday.


  5. - MisterJayEm - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:12 pm:

    “If you take a three-decade view of violent crime in Illinois, it’s clear that the state is much safer than it was 30 years ago.”

    Data aside, as someone who first moved to Illinois 30 years ago, this has been my lived experience as well.

    – MrJM


  6. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:15 pm:

    Congratulations to “Majority Missy”, putting the PA Dems in their House majority.

    Great tweets, great story… much respect that she took it upon herself to be that difference and now she’s in the Pennsylvania legislature. Cool stuff.

    Outside those really cool tweets, Anne Caprara’s Twitter remains comedy gold.


  7. - Dirty Red - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:21 pm:

    Why does WGN keep inviting PQ to be on their Election Night panels even when he is publicly floating the possibility of running for office? Are they now obligated to offer MLL the same opportunity?


  8. - TNR - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:23 pm:

    Thankfully, the hardcore racial voting patterns of Chicago mayoral races have waned a whole bunch. So, is it worth pointing out that Paul Vallas will be the only white candidate in a very crowded race?


  9. - Dirty Red - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:24 pm:

    To the post: A real shame the Governor is not running. I have a bunch of material just sitting here waiting for the day he files.


  10. - Stuck in Celliniland - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:28 pm:

    ==My partner is listening to the Pat Quinn press conference (I didn’t now he was a fan of Pat) My goodness it is circuitous==

    Pat Quinn doing what Pat Quinn doing best. Rambling unnecessarily.


  11. - Leigh John-Ella - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:31 pm:

    Finally a Pat Quinn decision I can support


  12. - Earnest - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    -Pat Quinn holds press conference to say he will not run for mayor

    Now that old country song’s running through my head:
    I remember how you used to squeezy me tight
    So very very tight it just didn’t feel right
    I’m so grateful you finally went away
    Otherwise I couldn’t miss you all the day.

    Refrain: stay away, stay away stay away, so I can miss you more


  13. - DuPage Saint - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:38 pm:

    So sad Quinn decided not to run. But thankfully he did not rule out any other races /S


  14. - Stuck in Celliniland - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:40 pm:

    ==I remember how you used to squeezy me tight==

    Speaking of, Squeezy will be celebrating his 10th birthday tomorrow:

    https://capitolfax.com/2012/11/19/a-snake-really/


  15. - Early voter - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    Will Garcia and Durbin donate to charities that will directly help those impacted by that specific crypto fraudster?


  16. - cermak_rd - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 3:06 pm:

    Early voter, People gambling with crypto are gullible fools so I hope not. I would like a donation to United Way or some other generic organization.


  17. - Jibba - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    Did Squeezy manage get on the state payroll as a Tier 1 employee?


  18. - Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 3:31 pm:

    “It should be noted, however, as a legislator Bourne voted continually and consistently to hurt Illinois’ most vulnerable and needy”

    Bourne was the real deal a dedicated public servant who worked for her distinct and the causes she held dear. She was also extremely nice to residents that advocated for positions that she often disagreed with. To reduce her to some partisan construct or label does her a disservice. Bourne was a co-sponsor on truly impactful legislation that became law. Including. Allow military personnel that is housed in temporary housing located outside of a school district to register – Suicide Prevention Lifeline are on student Id’s - schools to offer assistance to the parent/guardian of a student who is a victim of sexual abuse. SOS to provide a disabilities motor sicker to expectant mothers during the third trimester - licensure of certified midwives - Schools offer dual credit courses for students with intellectual disabilities.

    Good luck to a really decent person.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 3:41 pm:

    ===To reduce her to some partisan construct or label does her a disservice.===

    You didn’t say it wasn’t true.

    Avery Bourne, with her switch, like all the Raunerites, both chambers… purposely and very deliberately… hurt Illinois’ most vulnerable and needy during the budget fight where Governor Rauner held a state hostage.

    Bourne did that.

    Social services ended for vendors, families were impacted in ways that are irreparable. Bourne did that with the Raunerites.

    Further,

    Bourne ran after such purposeful hurting of this state defending those votes.

    I know it’s inconvenient, Bourne is a nice person, people like her, but to negate the real damage by sugar coating this legislative career that got an entire GA mirrored like Ken Dunkin’s when it came to ensuring Bruce Rauner was happy…

    Nope.

    “It should be noted, however,”

    You can still like her. Raunerites leaving while not moving up is just desserts.


  20. - Ethics much? - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 3:43 pm:

    Caprara sending political tweets during work hours? Is nothing sacred anymore?


  21. - Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 4:07 pm:

    “Avery Bourne, with her switch, like all the Raunerites, Bourne did that.”

    I have found that in life, there are seasons to all things. When an honest legislator like Bourne (who gets accolades from the other side of the aisle) is leaving and now that her legislative battles are over. I think it would be a good time to send Bourne on her way with positive vibes. And yes if CF had a feature on Dem members that are leaving honorably I would say the same. But you keep doing what you do.


  22. - Stuck in Celliniland - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 4:11 pm:

    ==Did Squeezy manage get on the state payroll as a Tier 1 employee?==

    Don’t forget Betsy the Briefcase too–our Pat’s probably had it since at least his Dan Walker days.


  23. - DHS Drone - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 4:19 pm:

    “Did Squeezy manage get on the state payroll as a Tier 1 employee?”

    Squeezy would have had to start before 1/1/11 or had a year of credited service in a pension system that had a reciprocal agreement. /S


  24. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 4:23 pm:

    ===I have found that in life===

    … when one is not regretful for purposely hurting the most vulnerable and needy of Illinois… and doing it because your patron wants to further hurt others… it should be noted, not glossed over because they are likable outside their voting switch.

    It should be noted for all Raunerites, it’s who they are in their career.

    ===And yes if CF had a feature on Dem members that are leaving honorably I would say the same. But you keep doing what you do.===

    When Dems decide to hold a whole state hostage with no budget for an entire General Assembly… and you’re “cool with that” too… a “good send off”…

    I dunno if that’s something to brag about yourself… that you’re being some sort of statesman…

    “It should be noted, however”

    It’s inconvenient, but all is true


  25. - Iowanite - Thursday, Nov 17, 22 @ 8:38 pm:

    Pat Quinn blinked.

    I doubt he intended to have a new conference to announce he wasn’t running for Mayor.


  26. - DHS Drone - Friday, Nov 18, 22 @ 8:24 am:

    Block Club put in their headline, regarding Pat Quinn’s news conference, “This could have been an email.” lol


  27. - Jerry - Friday, Nov 18, 22 @ 8:38 am:

    Pat Quinn has been a good man for Illinois for years. His heart is in the right place. I appreciate his service to the state.


  28. - Stuck in Celliniland - Friday, Nov 18, 22 @ 8:58 am:

    I didn’t get to see Quinn’s presser. How much more longer than necessary did it last?

    I’m also surprised he didn’t wait to have it as his typical Sunday press conference. Maybe during halftime of the Bears game.


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