Beyond the horse race
Monday, Feb 6, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kinda old (January 27 to Feb 2) IZQ Strategies poll…
Paul Vallas - 25%
Brandon Johnson - 15%
Lori Lightfoot - 12%
Chuy Garcia - 12%
Willie Wilson - 11%
Kam Buckner - 5%
Sophia King - 2%
Ja’Mal Green - 2%
Roderick T. Sawyer - 1%
Undecided - 16%
Crosstabs show Vallas was getting 37% of White voters, 21% of Latino voters and 10% of Black voters. Brandon Johnson was backed by 18% of White voters, 5% of Latino voters and 16% of Black voters. Garcia got 14% of White voters, 25% of Latino voters and just 5% of Black voters. Lightfoot had 7% of White voters, 6% of Latino voters and 22% of Black voters. Memo here.
* But rather than focus on the somewhat dated horse race numbers, let’s look at some other toplines…
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of these public figures?
JB Pritzker 65% Favorable, 33% Unfavorable
Lori Lightfoot 26% Favorable, 72% Unfavorable
Jesús “Chuy” García 44% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable
Brandon Johnson 35% Favorable, 20% Unfavorable
Paul Vallas 46% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable
Chicago Teachers Union 57% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable
Chicago Fraternal Order of Police 35% Favorable, 55% Unfavorable
Chicago Police Department 56% Favorable, 44% Unfavorable
From the crosstabs, CTU’s unfavorables with Black voters were 29% (66% favorable), FOP’s Black unfavorables were 69% (20% favorable) and CPD’s were 49%.
Whites also had favorable views of CTU (57-42) and had negative views of FOP7 (35-55). Latino voters were split evenly on CTU while the majority had a favorable view of FOP7 (55-29).
Black voters were evenly split on CPD, while White (54-45) and Latino (62-37) voters had favorable views.
* Also…
Shall the City of Chicago reopen all of the closed Chicago Department of Public Health mental health centers in support of a city-wide crisis response program that dispatches mental health professionals and an EMT to mental health emergency calls instead of police officers?
Some policymakers in Chicago are proposing reforms that would reassign certain duties currently handled by the police department to another agency. These include reassigning traffic enforcement and certain 911 calls — related to homelessness, mental health, minor crime, and substance abuse — to unarmed civil officers, social workers, and EMTs. Police would still respond to situations that involve serious felonies or significant acts of violence.
The crosstabs show that both questions were backed by wide margins in every demographic tested.
The “crime” issue is just not as simple as it may appear to some.
1,040 likely Chicago voters using SMS responses, poll conducted in both English and Spanish, MoE was ±3 percentage points.
- NIU Grad - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:02 pm:
It’s hard to see through the media’s focus on Vallas. They covered him word-for-word four years ago and he didn’t break single digits. Either he knows how to work them or they like what he’s saying…either way, he has been on a pedestal for a while now.
Will that translate to votes? We’ll see.
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:07 pm:
well that’s a terrifying top 2 Chicago. Good luck.
- New Day - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:09 pm:
To put it mildly, the lack of quality polling on this race makes the outcome a real unknown. I will go out on a limb and suggest that Rich would not be having a whole post about a poll from IVQ strategies if we had anything decent to go on…
And no, I’m not buying this.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:11 pm:
People, the whole point of the post is to look beyond the horse race. It’s the title, even. So, let’s do that.
- New Day - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:12 pm:
“People, the whole point of the post is to look beyond the horse race.”
Ok, but you started this post with the poll and the horse race so naturally we’re going to respond.
- Homebody - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:13 pm:
People want functional crime enforcement. That doesn’t mean people are happy with CPD and want to dump more resources into an unaccountable bucket that seems to actively fight against any attempt to improve.
No one wants a to live in a lawless wasteland, but at the same time that doesn’t mean accepting that the current FOP and CPD with proud boys and oathkeeper membership is the only option.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:13 pm:
===so naturally we’re going to respond. ===
And I’m gonna tell you to get back on topic. So please do so.
- Benjamin - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:16 pm:
It looks like people are concerned about crime, but their concern isn’t translating to a desire for traditional “law-and-order” candidates. I don’t want to get too optimistic, but the events of the last few years may have finally led the voting public to a nuanced understanding of crime and policing.
- Wardster - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:18 pm:
Big emphasis on the fact this was exclusively done via SMS text.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:19 pm:
Glad they distinguished CPD from FOP. I think that’s evidence that Catanzara maybe represents the retired members rather than actual, on the job cops. I am a fan of the police, but FOP leadership needs to clean house.
Also, Lightfoot leading the Black vote is a pleasant surprise. These numbers aren’t great for her, but I think the race for second place is still wide open. Still fluid and I think it’ll stay that way until March 1, when the dust settles.
- don the legend - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:22 pm:
==Lori Lightfoot 26% Favorable, 72% Unfavorable==
I’m no expert but 72% unfavorable, wow.
- Anonymous - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:26 pm:
Teachers union 57% favorable Police union 35% favorable. this would be interesting in a race with the top two in the horse race.
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:27 pm:
sorry. once again, anonymous was me. somehow I cannot get my screen to permanently place my nickname in the box as I did before. sorry.
- Politix - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:30 pm:
The public hasn’t yet caught on to Vallas’s views on policing. It will come.
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:43 pm:
==Paul Vallas 46% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable
Chicago Teachers Union 57% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable==
Man, that’s not sustainable.
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:46 pm:
==JB Pritzker 65% Favorable, 33% Unfavorable
Lori Lightfoot 26% Favorable, 72% Unfavorable
Jesús “Chuy” García 44% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable
Brandon Johnson 35% Favorable, 20% Unfavorable
Paul Vallas 46% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable==
He won’t do it and shouldn’t do it, but JB could blow this race up by picking a candidate and cutting an ad.
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:47 pm:
*Could blow UP this race.
- Lakeview Lou - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:54 pm:
It’s just common sense that most people in crisis calls and traffic stops should be handled by unarmed civilians. It allows armed police officer to focus on dangerous crimes, saves money, and provides for better outcomes across the board.
Whichever candidate can champion and own those policies will win.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:03 pm:
Going back to my fake focus group, while I bet most people would rank crime or public safety as a high priority issue, the policy solutions would mostly be middle of the road except for the activists’ answers.
- The Truth - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:05 pm:
I don’t see any way the Mayor rebounds from a 72% unfavorable in three weeks. She’s not going to make the runoff.
- Anonymous - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:14 pm:
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 2:07 pm:
Well that’s a terrifying top 2 Chicago. Good luck.
It’s a terrifying top nine. Not to mention that again, just like four years ago, whoever ultimately wins the race is going to likely have less than 25% of the popular vote in the initial election. That’s so sad.
- Just a guy - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:15 pm:
Sorry - hit send too quickly. I was the anon poster at 3:14 p.m.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:18 pm:
In what appears to be the reverse of “Germans Love David Hasselhoff”, we can conclude that “Chicagoans Really Dislike Lori Lightfoot”….
- Big Dipper - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:28 pm:
==It looks like people are concerned about crime, but their concern isn’t translating to a desire for traditional “law-and-order” candidates.==
We saw that just three months ago but the law-and-order/rabbit-hunting folks can’t read the room.
- Techie - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:28 pm:
“Not to mention that again, just like four years ago, whoever ultimately wins the race is going to likely have less than 25% of the popular vote in the initial election. That’s so sad.”
Yep. This is a perfect example of why our choose-only-one voting system is so bad.
We would fare much better with something like approval voting, where a voter can vote for one or more candidates. It would avoid vote splitting, and the run-off - if there was one - would feature candidates which have a broad base of support.
- JS Mill - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:29 pm:
If accurate, the one thing I can say on behalf of Lightfoot is that she has worked really hard to earn that 72% unfavorable. Is there a group of supporters or constituency she has not focused her wrath on at one time or another?
- Steve - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:29 pm:
To me the most important thing is the CTU favorables. What it says about Chicago is amazing. Chicago really is a union town. That isn’t cheap to run.
- Nuke The Whales - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:32 pm:
==traffic stops should be handled by unarmed civilians==
Serial killers Ted Bundy and Randy Kraft were caught during traffic stops. It’s this kind of stuff that sets up police reforms to fail.
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:39 pm:
@Just a guy. agree. I know people working in campaigns for the top 6 and frankly I don’t understand any of it.
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:41 pm:
@Arsenal, oh yeah, JB gonna stay away and he should.
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:59 pm:
==Serial killers Ted Bundy and Randy Kraft were caught during traffic stops.==
And Tyre Nichols was killed at one, so swings and roundabouts I guess?
(Also, Kraft was pulled over for suspected drunk driving, not like speeding or something.)
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:07 pm:
===And Tyre Nichols was killed at one===
True. However, the CPD sweeps up enormous numbers of illegal guns via traffic stops. There’s room for compromise.
- Moi - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:16 pm:
Amalia @2:07 pm. I could not agree more with you.
- Montrose - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:30 pm:
The support for Treatment-not-Trauma is real. I think all the candidates except Lightfoot & Wilson support it. And Lightfoot’s stance isn’t a policy stance. It’s about not letting people she doesn’t like win. That’s how a mayor ends up being disliked by 3 out of 4 likely voters.
I know this is pretty standard elections 101, but whomever in that top four can get their base to the polls gets into the run off. Who has the ground game?
- MisterJayEm - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:39 pm:
“Serial killers Ted Bundy and Randy Kraft were caught during traffic stops.”
Between 1972 and 1983, Ted Bundy and Randy Kraft killed approximately 100 people.
In 2022 alone, US law enforcement killed at least 1,176 people making it the deadliest year for police violence since experts first started tracking the killings nationwide.
– MrJM
- Arsenal - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:39 pm:
==I know this is pretty standard elections 101, but whomever in that top four can get their base to the polls gets into the run off. Who has the ground game?==
I’m not sure this is right, but if it is you’d obviously like to be the CTU candidate and maaaaaaybe the FOP candidate.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:46 pm:
===And Lightfoot’s stance isn’t a policy stance. It’s about not letting people she doesn’t like win. That’s how a mayor ends up being disliked by 3 out of 4 likely voters.===
10/10, no notes.
- MisterJayEm - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 4:52 pm:
I found the favorable/unfavorable ratings for the CPD and FOP to be very surprising.
Anyone know of any older, legit polling on their favorability to which one could compare the results of this one?
– MrJM
- Just a guy - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 5:11 pm:
- Amalia - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 3:39 pm:
@Just a guy. agree. I know people working in campaigns for the top 6 and frankly I don’t understand any of it.
That makes two of us. You have some that don’t know how to get out of their own way, and others who don’t seem to have a clue how to open the door to walk in. Yet all of them are still in the race. I live in the 1st Ward and I will be more interested to see how our Aldermanic race turns out. We’ve had eight carjackings within two blocks of our home over the last six months. I know from at least talking to my neighbors, crime and more community support are the issues on everyone’s mind here.
- Vito Marzullo - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 5:31 pm:
This polling outfit, IZQ, is fairly far left. I suspect that this poll was tailored to bolster the narrative that Johnson is the only alternative to a Lightfoot and Vallas runoff. Not buying it.
- charles in charge - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 5:49 pm:
== Serial killers Ted Bundy and Randy Kraft were caught during traffic stops.==
. . . after which Bundy escaped law enforcement custody TWICE and then went to Florida where he killed more people.
- Shytown - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 6:45 pm:
What Vito said
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Feb 6, 23 @ 7:44 pm:
===Not buying it.===
No one liked Blagojevich either.