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About as lopsided as you can get

Monday, Oct 21, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The remap has consequences. My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Illinois Senate President Don Harmon continues piling up campaign money. His latest quarterly report for his personal campaign committee showed Harmon had $13.4 million in the bank, up almost $2 million from the previous quarter. His caucus committee ended with $2.6 million in the bank, up about $800,000 from the previous quarter. And his two other committees held a combined $1 million.

As I write this on Oct. 18, Harmon’s personal committee has reported raising $777,000 this month. No contributions have been reported from that committee this month. Harmon’s caucus committee has brought in a bit over $2 million, most of that from Gov. JB Pritzker, and about $1.4 million in expenditures have been reported.

That means the Senate leader is sitting on about $18 million for the home stretch. And since Harmon really has only one race (Sen. Patrick Joyce of Essex), which isn’t really that competitive, it looks like he’ll be banking most of that cash for 2026. For sure, he’ll spend some of it this fall, but he’ll head into the next cycle with a massive cash lead.

By comparison, Senate Republican Leader John Curran ended the third quarter with a bit over $1.9 million, up about $400,000 at the end of the previous quarter. He moved about $700,000 of what he raised to his caucus committee, the Senate Republican Victory Fund. That committee ended the quarter with about $163,000.

Curran’s personal committee has reported raising $127,000 this month and his caucus committee has pulled in $335,000, with $313,000 of that coming from Curran. The caucus committee has made about $25,000 in contributions this month.

All that gives Curran about $2.2 million to spend in the home stretch, meaning Harmon has almost a 9-1 cash advantage.

House Speaker Chris Welch spent about $6.9 million during the third quarter out of his personal campaign fund, raised $4.5 million and ended with $5 million in the bank. Democrats for the Illinois House raised about $4.8 million, spent $3.8 million and ended with $2.1 million in the bank. Welch’s township committee raised $100,000 from various law firms, spent $42,000 and ended with $251,000 in the bank.

As I write this, Welch’s personal committee has reported $402,000 in contributions and moved $4 million into his caucus account. Aside from that, Democrats for the Illinois House has reported raising $2.1 million, mainly from Pritzker, and has contributed $1.9 million.

That gives Welch about $7.8 million to spend in the closing weeks.

House Republican Leader Toni McCombie raised $950,000 during the quarter, spent $1.8 million and ended with $614,000 in the bank. The House Republican Organization raised $2.2 million (about $1.7 million from McCombie), spent $2.2 million and ended with just $91,000 in the bank.

So far this month, McCombie’s personal committee has reported raising $256,000 and has contributed $450,000, all to House Republican Organization. Including that money, the HRO has reported raising $857,000 so far in October and has contributed $606,000.

That gives McCombie only $762,000 left to spend for the remaining three weeks. Welch has a 10-1 cash advantage.

Meanwhile, all four legislative leaders are currently not bound by state campaign contribution limitations on their personal committees because they have contributed or loaned those funds more than $100,000. As you would expect, the Democratic leaders are doing far better than the Republicans.

Harmon busted the caps in January 2023 with a $168,000 contribution to his personal fund. Since then, his campaign account has reported raising $8.8 million in contributions above the standard $68,500 limit for political action committees.

Welch nullified his contribution caps in late March 2023 with a $100,001 loan to his fund, which was paid back to him a couple of weeks later. Welch has since reported raising about $6.9 million in contributions above the standard limit.

Curran busted the caps on August 12 with a $100,001 loan, a debt he was still carrying on his latest report. Curran has raised just $342,000 in contributions above the standard limit.

McCombie busted her caps in late March with a $100,001 loan, which her campaign paid back to her a few days later. She has since reported raising $650,000 above the standard caps.

So, the Democratic leaders have used the state’s cap workaround law to raise a net total of $15.6 million, while the Republican leaders have raised a net of just $792,000 (once Curran’s loan is eventually paid back). That’s a 20-1 Democratic advantage.

This is all ridiculously lopsided.

       

52 Comments »
  1. - low level - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 8:55 am:

    This is what happens when you go from being a mainstream party to a party lead by a nut that caters to extremists. Your funders go to the other side and you begin to lose elections. Losing elections then makes you lose more deep pocketed people and it continues. Talk about a “death spiral”.

    Illinois Republicans only have themselves to blame.


  2. - Just Me 2 - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 8:57 am:

    The Illinois Republicans are a joke to say the least, but the gerrymandered map is similarly laughable. Maybe the reason the GOP is so ridiculous is because they don’t stand a chance so they attract nut-jobs who don’t bother to take their role seriously?


  3. - TJ - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:16 am:

    The ILGOP should clearly reach out to former President Trump to get him to share some of his exorbitant largesse to support down ballot races.

    I burst out laughing twice and snickered a third time while typing that sentence.


  4. - School Guy - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:23 am:

    At what point do we ask if this is about governing or about power? In Illinois are they the same thing? Both parties are at fault for destroying the two party system in this state and eliminating any possibility of compromise. One for selecting/electing bad candidates, and one for manipulating the system to their own super-advantage. And both parties have supported campaign finance laws that have virtually no impact on limiting the influence of money in campaigns.

    Is there any way the millions of Illinoisans who would prefer less extremism can have a say as long as nearly every district has been drawn to be safe? There is nothing healthy about the way things are headed here.


  5. - Huh? - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:23 am:

    “the reason the GOP is so ridiculous is because they don’t stand a chance so they attract nut-jobs who don’t bother to take their role seriously”

    I thought this was supposed to be an Illinois centric blog. /s


  6. - Larry Bowa Jr. - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:28 am:

    “Maybe the reason the GOP is so ridiculous is because they don’t stand a chance so they attract nut-jobs who don’t bother to take their role seriously?”

    LOL. Truly it is the perfidious democrats’ fault that republican primary voters demonstrate their affection for atrocious freakshow candidates time after time, election after election. When will democrats stop forcing republican voters to choose these republican candidates?


  7. - Friendly Bob Adams - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:30 am:

    I’m very happy with the current political situation. It will all change in time, but this is a great moment in my opinion…


  8. - Pundent - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:30 am:

    =Maybe the reason the GOP is so ridiculous is because they don’t stand a chance so they attract nut-jobs who don’t bother to take their role seriously?=

    Sounds like a chicken and egg argument. And it does little to explain statewide failures and candidates such as Bailey and Devore.


  9. - Dragnet - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:50 am:

    Thanks again, Bruce Rauner. You blew the chance to govern effectively and took away any chance at a balanced map by throwing away the Governor’s office due to your stubborn arrogance.


  10. - low level - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:51 am:

    ==gerrymandered map is similarly laughable==

    I dont know if you were around then, but Democrats were able to win 4 out of 5 elections from 1992-2000 in the Illinois House against a very gerrymandered Republican map. They did this by recruiting sensible moderates to run in Republican areas. It worked.

    Meanwhile, just two years ago there was a centrist Republican candidate for governor who was rejected by his own party. Another nut won the primary. IL GOP primary voters cant seem to nominate candidates who might actually be able to win general elections. Thats on them, not the Democrats.


  11. - JS Mill - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:55 am:

    @Larry Bowa Jr +1


  12. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:55 am:

    Illinois Republicans really came out ahead with the big funders Rauner and Griffin. Both lost big and bailed on them, leaving the state. And they pay higher taxes because they believed the people who actually care about them the least, rejecting the Fair Tax. Now they have little money and no hope for a political turnaround of any significance. Nice job.


  13. - Dragnet - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:56 am:

    “Meanwhile, just two years ago there was a centrist Republican candidate for governor who was rejected by his own party. Another nut won the primary. IL GOP primary voters cant seem to nominate candidates who might actually be able to win general elections. Thats on them, not the Democrats.”

    Exactly correct, low level- their own fault and they just cannot fugure it out


  14. - Steve - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:58 am:

    There’s a lot of Republicans voters , who have left Illinois for lower tax states. It’s called voting with your feet.


  15. - TNR - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 9:58 am:

    Gerrymandering is a big part of it, no doubt. But the GOP’s collapse in Illinois is all about the political transformation of the suburbs — a change that was slowly building and then super-charged by Trump. Don’t forget that Dem candidates like Anna Stava-Murray, Laura Ellman and others got elected in districts that were drawn to be Republican seats in the 2010 map.

    If the Illinois GOP can’t win


  16. - Demoralized - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 10:12 am:

    ==There’s a lot of Republicans voters , who have left Illinois for lower tax states. It’s called voting with your feet.==

    Yeah, @Steve. That’s the reason for the Republican’s dismal failure to raise funds. You go with that talking point.


  17. - Diabolical Dems - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 10:14 am:

    In 2010, Diabolical Dems created the 6th Congressional District as a GOP vote sink.

    The Dems packed as many hard core Republicans as possible into CD6 as a cynical exercise in gerrymandering.

    Then, along came Sean Casten.

    Oh well. . .


  18. - yinn - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 10:14 am:

    Over the weekend I watched Shaw Media’s online forum for IL House District 76 candidates Murri Briel and Liz Bishop. Bishop, the R in the race, seemed at one point to be trying to make a case to vote for her based on the lopsidedness, which she characterized as “unhealthy.”

    BTW I really appreciate Shaw’s including a question about PPP loans on its candidates questionnaires.


  19. - Huh? - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 10:42 am:

    “When will democrats stop forcing republican voters to choose these republican candidates?”

    When people come to the realization that voting for any republican’t is a wasted exercise.

    Nobody is forcing anyone to vote for a particular candidate. Voters always of the opportunity to cast a write in vote.

    The republican’t party is a self inflicted wound. The Democratic Party has nothing to do with the slating of atrocious republican’t candidates.


  20. - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 10:49 am:

    –trying to make a case to vote for her based on the lopsidedness–

    This is also the reasoning a D appellate court candidate stated he should be elected - because there are no judges from his county on the appellate court, and it would be good to balance it out. Whatever that means.

    “There are 54 judges on the IL Appellate Court. Nearly HALF are from Cook County. Will County deserves the same representation on the second highest court in Illinois as our neighbors. There has NEVER been an IL Appellate Court Justice elected from Will County.”

    That’s not how appellate courts work though, and should be irrelevant for a judge.

    The R’s by their own actions have made themselves a pariah that I can’t vote for. Ever. Their lack of money isn’t the reason they are losing, it’s a consequence of it. Unfortunately, that means a few of my local ballot positions were left blank because just calling yourself a D isn’t good enough if there isn’t an actual history and policy platform to match that claim.


  21. - Louis G Atsaves - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:01 am:

    No sane or normal Republican will run in the overwhelming majority of Districts gerrymandered by the Democrats and signed into law by our Governor who previously promised to veto a gerrymandered map. Well, he didn’t. So we know his definition of gerrymandered, supported by his open checkbook. And those good or great candidates on the GOP side (and on the Democratic side in packed GOP districts by Democrats) are out there and have been asked. They aren’t stupid. They said no. Sane, rational Republicans take a pass for good reasons. Why take time off work, from your families, spend some of your own money, to do the against all odds impossible? And be attacked if they are insane enough to buck the current system. They can be Batman or Batwoman against all odds but that is comic book and movie fantasy stuff. Real life intrudes to the preposterous where my local state Democratic Rep is campaigning in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania even with an opponent running against him with no campaign funds, and a tiny group of volunteers struggling to run a campaign.

    My local congressman, up against a normal Republican running a strong campaign, refuses to leave his basement and debate. His district newsletter asks for voters to nominate their favorite ice cream shops in the district.

    For money in campaigns, donation limits are easily busted like flimsy paper bags, adding to the financial imbalance.

    Fine system here in Illinois. Let’s all vote on the ice cream stores, shall we?


  22. - JS Mill - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:04 am:

    =There’s a lot of Republicans voters , who have left Illinois for lower tax states. It’s called voting with your feet.=

    Prove that. I’ll wait.


  23. - Candy Dogood - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:07 am:

    The meaningful political lesson out of this is that in politics if you bring nothing to the table you should expect nothing on your plate.

    The Illinois GOP has made it impossible to even pretend that they bring something to the table. The saying that politics makes strange bedfellows has been around at least a couple of centuries at this point. The spirit behind that concept is that to get things done sometimes you have to involve people who you otherwise wouldn’t associate with.

    Illinois GOP Legislators have basically created a situation where no one needs them enough to ignore their nonsense and they need to understand that they have to stop the nonsense.


  24. - Neef Jr. - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:07 am:

    It must be lopsided. Liz Bishop just filed a notice of self funding


  25. - Candy Dogood - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:10 am:

    ===There’s a lot of Republicans voters , who have left Illinois for lower tax states. It’s called voting with your feet===

    So if we raise taxes we could better fund our public schools, our universities, and build a better society — and the Republicans will just leave?

    What exactly is supposed to be the downside to this premise?

    What tax rate do we need to establish to get Darren Bailey and Chris & Mary Miller to sell the assets they inherited and leave Illinois for good?


  26. - maybe - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:14 am:

    Money wont mean much against a stacked deck, in 2022 Reublicans did come out and vote, in the Illinois Senate races they accounted for 48% of the votes an increase from previous elections. However, Democrats were able to to pickup almost 70% of the seats?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Illinois_Senate_election


  27. - The Way I See It - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:16 am:

    Part of the problem with the R dependency on Rauner and Griffin to fund them in the 2010s is that thry forgot how to raise money themselves. Now that Daddy Warbucks has decamped to Florida that weakness has been exposed.

    I am a hard Democrat, but not having a competitive 2 party system isn’t healthy for democracy.


  28. - Back to the Future - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:16 am:

    Always amazed by the amount of money contributed.
    Our leaders are going to have a bit of a challenge as the line forms of special interest groups, “lobbyists” and insiders looking for their pieces of government deals, appointments and influence.
    Thinking it is going to be time (as usual) to look at reducing
    support for education, DCFS, mental health and other basic services the state should be supporting.


  29. - maybe - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:18 am:

    The House in Illinois is more bleak over 50% voted Republican yet Democrats actually picked up more seats than last election. Won 78 seats from a previous 73 despite a 9% decline in votes in the state.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Illinois_House_of_Representatives_election


  30. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:30 am:

    Legislative districts are one thing, statewide races are another. Gerrymandered districts didn’t hurt Republicans there, they themselves did with poor candidates. Now who wants to fund this?


  31. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:36 am:

    ===forgot how to raise money themselves===

    A large portion of their donor class has either retired or passed away. They failed to groom the next generation.


  32. - maybe - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:37 am:

    ==Legislative districts are one thing, statewide races are another. Gerrymandered districts didn’t hurt Republicans there, they themselves did with poor candidates. Now who wants to fund this?==

    I agree Republicans had far better choices in state races and chose poorly, they chose who they wanted and not who could win an election. This post revolves more about party money and disctricts, not statewide elections. My point is, as you said, who wants to fund these district races that thehy have no real chance at winning.


  33. - Burned Out DuPage PC - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:37 am:

    Anecdote is not proof, but my observations after serving for decades as a Republican PC in DuPage are that my precinct has gone from marginally Republican to marginally Democratic. This has occurred in equal measures to former Republicans who are unhappy with Trump and Bailey and now vote Democratic and Republicans who have moved away or died.

    Republicans moving away, along with the movement of moderate Republicans to the Ds, make it very hard for the type of candidates who can win a general election in DuPage to get out of a Trumpified primary.


  34. - Telly - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 11:49 am:

    @maybe, gotta be careful not to extrapolate too much from those statewide voting totals. The large number of uncontested races tends to skew things.


  35. - Candy Dogood - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 12:25 pm:

    === They failed to groom the next generation===

    I don’t think they necessarily failed in the effort to develop the next generation of Republican donors and elected officials, I think they just made very poor choices that limited the pool and also causes for some pretty lack luster future donors and leaders.

    Intellectualism and confidence in scientific information aren’t supposed to be partisan issues. Even on the social issues they’ve moved so far that it requires completely disregarding the basic rights of half of the population to an incredible extreme.

    Quite a few of the GOP incumbents are people that are embarrassing to support. Never mind that they doubled down on an economic message that made concerns about cost of higher education and volume of student loans a left only issue.

    Just imagine what it’d be like to bust your butt off for a double major in economics and finance and paying for your education for with student loans and then your choices for conservative candidates are Darren Bailey and these other yahoos that pride themselves on their own ignorance and use your shared Christian faith as a basis to hate.

    Oh yeah, and your support is public.

    When and if you open your wallet for a candidate, it’s not going to be the candidates that the Illinois GOP is running.

    A party that runs peaked in high school bullies for office should expect to have peaked in high school fundraising.

    They didn’t fail to groom the next generation of donors, they failed to make their party and candidates appealing to the next generation of donors. The donors are there if the party stops trying to build it’s tent tall enough to burn crosses and wide enough to fit over the cesspool.


  36. - Huh? - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 12:36 pm:

    “competitive 2 party system isn’t healthy for democracy”

    When the republican’ts field a slate of candidates, headed by the likes of beetle and tramp, with an increasingly harsh, misogynistic, and xenophobic ideology, there is nothing to appeal to a centrist or right leaning democrat. When the foundation of a political party is built on lies, hatred, and undying loyalty to a single person, the party deserves to be ostracized.

    The Illinois republican’ts did nothing to separate themselves from their dear leader. They deserve what they got, which is nothing.


  37. - TJ - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 12:40 pm:

    == There’s a lot of Republicans voters , who have left Illinois for lower tax states. It’s called voting with your feet. ==

    To paraphrase a former New Zealand PM when asked about the trend for Kiwis to move to Australia…

    Sounds like a great way to improve the average IQ of both states.


  38. - 47th Ward - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===Sane, rational Republicans take a pass for good reasons.===

    I count you among that group of Republicans. What do you think needs to happen to get more of this type of Republican nominated by your party?

    Fair point on gerrymandering, but that doesn’t solve the whole problem, does it? It’s a convenient excuse that changes the subject from Trump-like ILGOP candidates dominating your primaries. That’s the problem, and too few ILGOPs are speaking out against this hostile takeover of your party by crazy nihilists.


  39. - JS Mill - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 12:47 pm:

    =What tax rate do we need to establish=

    Spoiler alert, any taxes or tax rate is bad in their eyes. They want everything for free or are themselves dependent on government handout like farm subsidies.


  40. - Doubledown - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 12:47 pm:

    Retired and sold my business of 50 years last year, was a life long will county republican and moved to Tennessee We could not be happier.

    The comments about older Ill republicans are true


  41. - Give Me A Break - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 1:10 pm:

    “There’s a lot of Republicans voters , who have left Illinois for lower tax states. It’s called voting with your feet.”

    Most likely moved to Red states which Blue states like Illinois support with our tax dollars.


  42. - thisjustinagain - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 1:17 pm:

    As an independent voter, I fail to understand why the IL GOP cannot see the failure of their current party platform. Their few seats and terrible election numbers in the most populated county in the State are proof of their failures yet they continue to insist that they should be taken seriously. They’re the White Sox of Illinois politics demanding a seat at the table they refuse to pay for.


  43. - Chicago Blue - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 1:36 pm:

    @ Maybe

    Those charts tell the gerrymandering somewhat but the Dems didn’t field 11 candidates in the House, which impacts the totals.

    And I’d honestly be more upset about that if the 49 R US senators (soon to be 51-55) weren’t elected with 40 million fewer votes than the Dem senators.


  44. - Larry Bowa Jr. - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 1:48 pm:

    “Real life intrudes to the preposterous where my local state Democratic Rep is campaigning in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania even with an opponent running against him with no campaign funds, and a tiny group of volunteers struggling to run a campaign.”

    Sounds like you should have helped raise some campaign funds and knocked on some doors for your local republican then. Instead you’re here carping about how your candidate is going to lose such that democrats don’t need to bother campaigning.
    The horrific unfairness of it all! We all know Republicans never send their safe seat members out campaigning in other places.


  45. - @misterjayem - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 1:48 pm:

    “the reason the GOP is so ridiculous is because they don’t stand a chance so they attract nut-jobs who don’t bother to take their role seriously”

    And once again, Murc’s Law is invoked to explain the GOP’s inexplicable behavior.

    Murc’s Law:

    the widespread assumption that only Democrats have any agency or causal influence over American politics,” i.e. Democrats are responsible for Republicans being the way they are and doing the things they do, either because Democrats provoked them or failed to control them.

    If Republican candidates are unelectable in Illinois, that is primarily the responsibility of the people who nominate them in the Illinois Republican primaries, i.e. Illinois Republican voters.

    – MrJM


  46. - low level - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 1:55 pm:

    ==was a life long will county republican and moved to Tennessee We could not be happier.==

    You are so happy in Tennessee that you feel the need to still comment on a blog devoted to Illinois politics. Got it.


  47. - TNR - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 2:19 pm:

    == Democrats were able to win 4 out of 5 elections from 1992-2000 in the Illinois House against a very gerrymandered Republican map. They did this by recruiting sensible moderates to run in Republican areas. ==

    This absolutely nails it. My guess is McCombie and Curran get that. They’d probably would love to have moderate, pro-choice, soccer moms on the ballot in suburban districts. Problem is, no candidate like that can advance out of a GOP primary.


  48. - Doubledown - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 2:26 pm:

    @low so someone who followed this blog for a very very long time and the context was republicans leaving the state

    So if someone who leaves the state they can no longer root for the white Sox,cubs or bears got it


  49. - low level - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 3:09 pm:

    ==So if someone who leaves the state they can no longer root for the white Sox,cubs or bears got it==

    No, I dont think Illinois government can be compared to sports teams. Its much more serious. There is one similarity in that Illinois Republicans are like the White Sox - full of losers.


  50. - Annonin' - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 3:17 pm:

    Gerrymandering doesn’t work when state and federal courts upheld the maps because they comply with Voting Rights Act. GOPies can’t sell the whack jobs to most voters.


  51. - Da big bad wolf - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 3:19 pm:

    === We could not be happier.===
    Of course you’re happier. You’re retired.


  52. - Da big bad wolf - Monday, Oct 21, 24 @ 3:23 pm:

    === GOPies can’t sell the whack jobs to most voters.===

    Who can forget candidates like kitty litter Catalina Lauf ?


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* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* Caption contest!
* Pritzker rules out immediate state action on CPS, promises more money for K-12 next year, but says past CPS spending means they'll need to find 'efficiencies within the budget' (Updated)
* The Sonya Massey case was the tip of the iceberg
* About as lopsided as you can get
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
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