* Not unexpected…
…Adding… Raja out with a poll from… April?…
As the race for the Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate in Illinois begins to take shape, a recent survey of likely Democratic primary voters shows Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi in a strong position in a multi-candidate contest.
While the survey showed Raja in the lead in a larger field with five candidates, his lead actually expands in a scenario limited to the three currently announced candidates.
Congresswoman Lauren Underwood’s supporters were more likely to select Raja as their second choice candidate than anyone else. When Underwood and Treasurer Mike Frerichs’ supporters are allocated to their second choices, Raja opens up a 9-point advantage over Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton.
Congresswoman Robin Kelly also sits in double digits in this scenario, with a large share of the electorate still undecided.
1 Results are taken from a survey of 800 likely voters in the March 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Illinois. Interviews were conducted by live dialers via telephone and through text-to-web responses between April 24-28, 2025. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval.
2 Alternative race scenarios with fewer candidates were calculated by asking respondents who their second choice would be, if their
first choice was not in the race. Those voters whose second choice was not included in the simulation were allocated to ‘undecided.’
Ancient numbers, but interesting.
…Adding… Press release…
As a part of her continued work to stand up for Illinois’ 14th Congressional District and counter Donald Trump’s dangerous MAGA agenda in Washington, Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (IL-14) today issued the following statement regarding her political future:
“In 2018, I was elected to protect health care for people with pre-existing conditions. Since then we’ve gotten 19 pieces of legislation signed into law – bringing home billions of dollars and expanding access to high quality affordable health care for every American.
“Now, Donald Trump and his Administration are renewing their attacks on health care by trying to slash Medicaid and undo all the progress we’ve made, which would have deadly consequences for working families across the country. Our work is not done, and I’ve decided the most powerful way for me to defend our values and hold Donald Trump accountable is to help Democrats win back the House.
“By serving in House Democratic leadership and leading the DCCC recruitment efforts, I’ll continue working to drive down costs for American families, flip the House, and elect a new generation of changemakers. I’m excited to keep leading that fight at home and in Washington.”
Underwood’s decision to forgo a run for the United States Senate coincides with non-partisan projections showing that the most likely way for Democrats to regain power in Washington is through winning back the House of Representatives in 2026. As a member of Democratic House leadership, and as the DCCC Recruitment Co-Chair, Underwood will be playing a key role in helping Democrats flip the House in the 2026 cycle.
“Lauren Underwood has been a force to be reckoned with in the House of Representatives since she successfully flipped a long-held Republican district in 2018,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY-8). “As a valuable member of leadership, Congresswoman Underwood is playing a critical role in helping House Democrats communicate decisively with voters as we fight the reckless Republican budget scheme and work hard to win back the majority in 2026. At this pivotal moment, Lauren’s work in the House to stop Donald Trump’s dangerous MAGA agenda is needed now more than ever and we look forward to her continued leadership.”
“Congresswoman Underwood is a proven fighter who knows how to flip Republican seats and win tough races,” said DCCC Chairwoman, Congresswoman Suzan DelBene (WA-01). “As the DCCC Recruitment Co-Chair, Congresswoman Underwood is on the frontlines of bringing the best and brightest to Congress to stop MAGA Republicans and fight for working families. The road to a better United States runs through the House, and we’re lucky to have Congresswoman Underwood helping to pave it.”
Lauren Underwood is a four term United States Congresswoman from Illinois’ 14 district, where she helped flip the House of Representatives and was elected as the youngest Black Congresswoman in history in 2018. In 2024, Underwood won reelection to the House in 2024 by 10 points, while Vice President Harris only won the district by 5 points. Currently the Cook Political Report scores the 14th District as D+3 in their Partisan Voting Index, down one point from 2023.
…Adding… Congresswoman Robin Kelly…
Lauren Underwood is a smart colleague who works very hard for her district and for our state. She’s been a leader in shaping both the message and the future of our party for the better. Lauren and I have both worked diligently on ending the maternal mortality crisis — and I know she will continue to be a critical partner in delivering for the people of Illinois.
…Adding… Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton…
With the constant chaos coming out of Donald Trump’s Washington, taking back the House is more vital than ever before, and Lauren Underwood’s leadership is critical to making that a reality. I’m grateful for Lauren’s advocacy, especially on health care and reproductive rights, and I’m proud to have her fighting for Illinois in Washington.
- Ucci - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 3:57 pm:
good move for her future
- hisgirlfriday - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 4:07 pm:
Smart.
- Amalia - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 4:07 pm:
smart. Robin, your move.
- Jeb - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 4:26 pm:
–smart. Robin, your move–
Why not Stratton’s move? Why are we green-lighting this race for her? Raja would make an excellent U.S. Senator.
- Big Bill Thompson - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 4:30 pm:
It’s not too late for Karpetbagger Kat to primary Underwood.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 4:39 pm:
===Why are we green-lighting this race for her?===
One person says it and all of a sudden you think everyone thinks it?
Take a breath.
- City Zen - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 4:44 pm:
Passing up a once-in-a-generation chance this early? I dunno. I don’t see Duckworth leaving office in the next 20 years. Hope she’s happy in the House.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 5:03 pm:
Releasing a poll that shows Undecided winning does not do me much good. Especially not without crosstabs.
Underwood is making a very smart decision, and I applaud her for that. I am sure she had a lot of folks cheering her to run, but I just did not see a path for her to a plurality of the vote.
I still don’t see a path for Raja, so maybe he could explain how he plans to win. It seems likely Stratton gets the Cook County Democratic Party endorsement, and most of the downstate chairs. Stratton seems likely to get most if not all of the endorsements of organized labor.
Meanwhile Raja will be explaining to Democratic primary voters why he likes to work with Republicans so much.
Seems Raja’s best hope is a debate where Stratton shows up completely unprepared and Raja wows the audience.
- The Farm Grad - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 5:05 pm:
“Hope she’s happy in the House. ”
It’s a safe seat.
And the House is far more likely to be in Dems’ hands than the Senate, due to the number of small population states
- Old IL Dude - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 5:20 pm:
Should be interesting, but it’s May 2025 and the race is in March of 2026. Lots can happen. KInda late in the game for Stratton to cobble together a record of individual accomplishments, though, and the Lt Gov job doesn’t really do much for drafting and enacting legislation.
- Keyrock - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 5:23 pm:
Agree that it was the smart move.
Too many donors are already committed to others.
I think she would have been the best senator. Fortunately, she can play a major role for Illinois and the country as she rises through House Democratic leadership.
- Lakeview Looker - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 5:43 pm:
Would have voted for Underwood if she jumped in. But this is shaping up to be a slugfest–might be more opportunity to effect change in the House after all.
As of right now, Stratton has my vote.
- Macon Deliberations - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 5:48 pm:
I think that Sandy Hart, the Lake County Board Chair would be a very strong candidate.
- ChicagoVinny - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 6:21 pm:
I’m a one issue voter and that issue is “fighting fascism”. Leaning Stratton but still have an open mind.
- Shadowdocket - Monday, May 19, 25 @ 6:57 pm:
Leaning Raja…. Stratton hard no. You are who you hire… Pritzker’s team not good.