Illinois is unique in that decades of bad bipartisan fiscal decisions, combined with the further self-sabotage of the Rauner years (now being replicated at scale at the federal level), put a millstone around our necks.
The pandemic, which affected those other states as well, hardly helped matters here.
JB hasn’t gotten us to the promised land in 5.5 years. True. But, the direction is correct.
Besides Hawaii, the only 4 other states with lower GDP growth than Illinois are deep red. That means “human rights” bastions like CA/NY/NJ/MA/MN are all vastly outperforming Illinois. Solid blue Washington state’s growth rate is 50% over the same timespan.
I really don’t think just looking at percentage changes since 2018 tells the whole story either, one reason being that the Illinois economy is larger than all of the states listed except New York.
The key question is whether the higher growth rates in other states are high enough to catch up to the size of the Illinois economy, and the fact of the matter is that they’re not. From 2018 to 2024, the Illinois economy grew by $266 billion. New York had more growth. But every other state on the list grew by less than Illinois, the next closest being Ohio, which grew by $255 billion.
The two “highest performers” on the list, Missouri and Indiana, grew by $130 and $150 billion, respectively. So at the end of the day, the size of the Illinois economies compared to these states widened, as opposed to shrink, contrary to the implications of the graph.
Another item that needs to be mentioned, is that the economy of Illinois was hit harder by the COVID recession than every other state on this list, in both real dollar terms and as a percentage of the state’s economy. In 2020, the Illinois economy contracted by $10 billion compared to 2018. The only other state on the list that saw a contraction during that same period of time was Pennsylvania, which contract $3.6 billion (down .46%.)
If you look at the economic performance since 2020, the Illinois economy has grown by 32.13% ($277 billion), Missouri has grown by 34.57% ($115 billion) and the average across all of the states in the graph is 32.84%.
Crains, can we get the data by region? Outside of Chicagoland and Metro East, Downstate (with an exception or two) has been stagnant / shrinking for decades. A drag on the rest of Illinois.
Let’s see how this quantum park pans out. Could very well be a long-term high tech job creator for Illinois. It’s not all about “right now.” The long game is what pays off for job creation and economic growth.
JB also owns eliminating a $17B backlog of bills created because the previous governor held the state budget hostage for 2 1/2 years in order to pass his turnaround agenda.
From where JB started, I’d say he’s done a pretty good job of actually turning around the state from the damage Rauner created for him.
I’ve been a vocal critic of the way Illinois has approached economic development on a statewide level since the early aughts. That said, Pritzker’s team has had the best approach I’ve seen since I moved here during the Blagojevich admin. But they’re not perfect. There are a couple of issues that have been neglected that could bump up our job creation and GDP numbers.
Power capacity is the number one issue preventing projects from landing in Illinois right now. Regions are running out of energy capacity and it takes 3-5 years and millions of dollars to do basic power upgrades on a site. This has to be addressed. My City passes up well over half of the project RFIs we get simply because there is not enough electricity on our grid to accommodate new loads.
Housing is also a killer for companies trying to create and fill jobs. It’s not just the lack of affordable housing, either. Market-rate housing is in short supply everywhere.
If Illinois can attack these two issues while maintaining the gains in other areas of economic development over the last 6 years (DCEO and Intersect working together, better tools, better outreach, trade missions, Gov involvement in calling companies, quantum investment etc.), then we’d really be cooking with gas.
In real dollars Illinois growth is still extending the differential between the surrounding states. Our economy is massive compared to theirs. Maybe the critics would like Missouri’s economy instead of Illinois? You can have that simply by moving there. Same with Indiana and Wisconsin. Maybe you would prefer their lower avearage wages too?
Candydogwood- the reality is the State political establishment is lock stock and barrel controlled by the Unions both public sector and private making Illinois very inhospitable to growth- you say we are growing bug we are growing slower then 46 other states including the entire midwest- this all predates JB but he has not made things any better as he has been reluctant to rock the boat and has added unnecessary costs( healthcare for migrants). The recent hostage taking of Uber and Lyft forced to accept unionization in exchange for dropping industry killer hikes in fees proves my contention. At least JB isn’t rushing to unwind Tier 2 which would prove very costly. Given Both Madigan and JB’s imposition of the legislative map( Which JB when running in 2018 opposed)none of this is apt to change. You can’t continue to lag GDP by the significant amounts Illinois has lagged this past decade and expect our economics to improve. Taxing the rich might sound attractive but guess what - all it does is encourage Companies to look elsewhere
That was my first thought as well, the only states we really compare with on that list GDP-wise are Michigan, NY, and Pennsylvania, maybe Ohio. But all those other states have such high percentages *because there economic numbers were in the toilet to begin with.* Even a modest increase looks massive if you look at only the percentages. I’ve been giving Crain’s more credit than they deserve, apparently.
Actual dollars vs percentage pf growth? Ask any economist what matters more- a larger state can be relatively stagnant and still have a dollars increase in GDP-Illinois is growing 10 percent slower then the US since 2018- Add 10 percent growth to Illinois and we would have surpluses as opposed to a billion dollar deficit
Rauner was in control for 4 years from January 12, 2015, to January 14, 2019. One political party controls Springfield. Rauner is a relic of the past now.
Perhaps there’s an ambitious Republican out there who’s willing to leverage this data to take on Pritzker. Because a campaign built on aspiring to be Indiana or Missouri sounds like a winning one to me.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 9:30 am:
Neat. Lets see a graph that displays which states have done a better job eroding human rights than Illinois.
- very old soil - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 9:35 am:
Candy, that’s what I was thinking.
- Just a Random Guy - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 9:44 am:
People, stick to the topic please. This is about GDP, jobs, and new businesses. Not FOID.
- very old soil - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 9:48 am:
butI think we both meant protecting human rights
- Moe Berg - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 9:54 am:
Illinois is unique in that decades of bad bipartisan fiscal decisions, combined with the further self-sabotage of the Rauner years (now being replicated at scale at the federal level), put a millstone around our necks.
The pandemic, which affected those other states as well, hardly helped matters here.
JB hasn’t gotten us to the promised land in 5.5 years. True. But, the direction is correct.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 9:59 am:
==better job eroding human rights==
Besides Hawaii, the only 4 other states with lower GDP growth than Illinois are deep red. That means “human rights” bastions like CA/NY/NJ/MA/MN are all vastly outperforming Illinois. Solid blue Washington state’s growth rate is 50% over the same timespan.
JB needs to own this.
- Juice - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:07 am:
I really don’t think just looking at percentage changes since 2018 tells the whole story either, one reason being that the Illinois economy is larger than all of the states listed except New York.
The key question is whether the higher growth rates in other states are high enough to catch up to the size of the Illinois economy, and the fact of the matter is that they’re not. From 2018 to 2024, the Illinois economy grew by $266 billion. New York had more growth. But every other state on the list grew by less than Illinois, the next closest being Ohio, which grew by $255 billion.
The two “highest performers” on the list, Missouri and Indiana, grew by $130 and $150 billion, respectively. So at the end of the day, the size of the Illinois economies compared to these states widened, as opposed to shrink, contrary to the implications of the graph.
Another item that needs to be mentioned, is that the economy of Illinois was hit harder by the COVID recession than every other state on this list, in both real dollar terms and as a percentage of the state’s economy. In 2020, the Illinois economy contracted by $10 billion compared to 2018. The only other state on the list that saw a contraction during that same period of time was Pennsylvania, which contract $3.6 billion (down .46%.)
If you look at the economic performance since 2020, the Illinois economy has grown by 32.13% ($277 billion), Missouri has grown by 34.57% ($115 billion) and the average across all of the states in the graph is 32.84%.
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:29 am:
Crains, can we get the data by region? Outside of Chicagoland and Metro East, Downstate (with an exception or two) has been stagnant / shrinking for decades. A drag on the rest of Illinois.
- Lurker - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:32 am:
@Candy, we can’t have both? Are you suggesting we need a better governor that can give us both? Ok, I’ll agree with you that we deserve better.
(But I still like what JB has done.)
- curtis - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:34 am:
Let’s see how this quantum park pans out. Could very well be a long-term high tech job creator for Illinois. It’s not all about “right now.” The long game is what pays off for job creation and economic growth.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:35 am:
===JB needs to own this. ===
The phrase “Governors Own” might as well be the motto of Capitol Fax, but what exactly does he need to own?
The impact of decades of unpaid pension debt from the long list of criminal (convicted and otherwise) governors we’ve had?
The dumb flat rate income tax we have that he put up tens of millions of dollars of his own wealth to fix?
The inflation driven by industry concentration and concentration of wealth?
What do you want him to “own?” Not making life worse for millions of people in order to artificially spur growth?
State money for a data center that poisons the neighborhood it is in?
State money for a rocket launch pad that poisons the previous pristine wilderness it is in?
The GDP of Illinois is growing. It continues to grow.
Do you got an idea to make it grow faster that isn’t the equivalent of burning down the house to save money on the heating bill?
- Steve Rogers - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:43 am:
JB also owns eliminating a $17B backlog of bills created because the previous governor held the state budget hostage for 2 1/2 years in order to pass his turnaround agenda.
From where JB started, I’d say he’s done a pretty good job of actually turning around the state from the damage Rauner created for him.
- sulla - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 10:45 am:
I’ve been a vocal critic of the way Illinois has approached economic development on a statewide level since the early aughts. That said, Pritzker’s team has had the best approach I’ve seen since I moved here during the Blagojevich admin. But they’re not perfect. There are a couple of issues that have been neglected that could bump up our job creation and GDP numbers.
Power capacity is the number one issue preventing projects from landing in Illinois right now. Regions are running out of energy capacity and it takes 3-5 years and millions of dollars to do basic power upgrades on a site. This has to be addressed. My City passes up well over half of the project RFIs we get simply because there is not enough electricity on our grid to accommodate new loads.
Housing is also a killer for companies trying to create and fill jobs. It’s not just the lack of affordable housing, either. Market-rate housing is in short supply everywhere.
If Illinois can attack these two issues while maintaining the gains in other areas of economic development over the last 6 years (DCEO and Intersect working together, better tools, better outreach, trade missions, Gov involvement in calling companies, quantum investment etc.), then we’d really be cooking with gas.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:11 am:
==The GDP of Illinois is growing. It continues to grow.==
GDP is growing consistently everywhere except fossil-fuel dependent North Dakota. And at far greater rates.
New Jersey and Connecticut both has massive pension debt. Both deep blue states. Both outperforming Illinois.
We keep searching for answers. We’re surrounded by answers.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:11 am:
I’ve only lived in Illinois for 30+ years, but “mixed success” is as much success as I can recall for Illinois.
By far.
– MrJM
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:13 am:
Missouri GDP (2023) 430,114 (2024)451,201
Indiana GDP (2023) 499,503 (2024)527,381
Illinois GDP (2023) 1,098,346 (2024)1,137,244
Illinois Increase 38,898
Indiana Increase 27,878
Missouri Increase 21,087
In real dollars Illinois growth is still extending the differential between the surrounding states. Our economy is massive compared to theirs. Maybe the critics would like Missouri’s economy instead of Illinois? You can have that simply by moving there. Same with Indiana and Wisconsin. Maybe you would prefer their lower avearage wages too?
- Johnny B - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:23 am:
There is no “success” in these graphs
- Sue - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:32 am:
Candydogwood- the reality is the State political establishment is lock stock and barrel controlled by the Unions both public sector and private making Illinois very inhospitable to growth- you say we are growing bug we are growing slower then 46 other states including the entire midwest- this all predates JB but he has not made things any better as he has been reluctant to rock the boat and has added unnecessary costs( healthcare for migrants). The recent hostage taking of Uber and Lyft forced to accept unionization in exchange for dropping industry killer hikes in fees proves my contention. At least JB isn’t rushing to unwind Tier 2 which would prove very costly. Given Both Madigan and JB’s imposition of the legislative map( Which JB when running in 2018 opposed)none of this is apt to change. You can’t continue to lag GDP by the significant amounts Illinois has lagged this past decade and expect our economics to improve. Taxing the rich might sound attractive but guess what - all it does is encourage Companies to look elsewhere
- CA-HOON - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:52 am:
@JS Mill
That was my first thought as well, the only states we really compare with on that list GDP-wise are Michigan, NY, and Pennsylvania, maybe Ohio. But all those other states have such high percentages *because there economic numbers were in the toilet to begin with.* Even a modest increase looks massive if you look at only the percentages. I’ve been giving Crain’s more credit than they deserve, apparently.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 12:04 pm:
=You can’t continue to lag GDP by the significant amounts Illinois has lagged this past decade and expect our economics to improve. =
And yet by the numbers we are growing more than the other midwest states. Actual dollars count.
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 12:11 pm:
As someone who lives 30 minutes from Missouri and 45 from Kentucky let me say they both didn’t have much more room to go down.
Drive through Cape or Paducah and you’ll see as much empty commercial space as full.
- Sue - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 12:55 pm:
Actual dollars vs percentage pf growth? Ask any economist what matters more- a larger state can be relatively stagnant and still have a dollars increase in GDP-Illinois is growing 10 percent slower then the US since 2018- Add 10 percent growth to Illinois and we would have surpluses as opposed to a billion dollar deficit
- Juice - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 1:34 pm:
Sue, any economist would say its not an either/or question, so just stop.
- Sie - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 1:53 pm:
Juice- you obviously didn’t go to Wharton- the StTe is growing at 1 percent- that is the problem- end of story
- Steve - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 1:57 pm:
-What do you want him to “own?”-
Rauner was in control for 4 years from January 12, 2015, to January 14, 2019. One political party controls Springfield. Rauner is a relic of the past now.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 2:06 pm:
Perhaps there’s an ambitious Republican out there who’s willing to leverage this data to take on Pritzker. Because a campaign built on aspiring to be Indiana or Missouri sounds like a winning one to me.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 2:08 pm:
===a campaign built on aspiring to be Indiana or Missouri sounds like a winning one to me===
lol
- Steve - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 2:14 pm:
===a campaign built on aspiring to be Indiana or Missouri sounds like a winning one to me===
The voters in Indiana and Missouri really are different than Illinois. Illinois voters don’t want to be a right to work state. That’s that.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 2:17 pm:
=== Sue - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 11:32 am:===
Sue, I understand that you want to burn down the house to save money on the heating bill. I specifically asked for ideas that don’t do that.
But if you want to burn the state down to make a few billionaires richer I am sure that’s a campaign message that you can win on in the Eastern Bloc.
- Paul Powell - Tuesday, Jul 1, 25 @ 4:04 pm:
Refocusing the state away from green energy now that those federal subsidies will be reduced or eliminated by the current administration
Trump is accelerating end of EV tax credits
Eliminating $7,500 credit for new cars, $4,000 for used cars and $7,500 for commercial vehicles by September 30th 2025
Analysts predict a 72% drop in EV sales over the next decade
Focus on revitalizing Chicago as a finance hub
The business leaving New York is going to Dallas and Miami not Chicago