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As Republican Day approaches, statewide GOP candidates are hard to find
Monday, Aug 4, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller * Rick Pearson…
* Don Tracy told Brenden Moore he might run for governor…
* The daunting task of winning statewide in Illinois is surely keeping people away. They have to find a way to eliminate the historic 10-15 percentage point Democratic advantage. And the retirements, exodus and/or deaths of longtime wealthy Republican contributors/bundlers is also hurting. The gobs of money spent by Bruce Rauner and Ken Griffin masked the problem for a few years. But when those two split for Florida, few if any were left to raise and contribute the amount of cash needed. * A simple luck of the draw is also playing a role. Only a few Republican state Senators are currently serving four-year terms, including Jason Plummer, Li Arellano and Terri Bryant. The Senate’s staggered 2-4-4 terms are set by lottery. Plummer has personal money, but he hasn’t yet shown an interest in another statewide race, even though he’s grown considerably since he ran for lt. governor in 2012. Arellano just got here. Bryant, I think, would be a solid candidate. But that’s a lot of work just to lose. * Some far-right types are taking the usual route of blaming the state party. There’s some truth to that. But maybe those folks ought to step up to the plate themselves. * Anyway, your thoughts just ten days ahead of Republican Day?
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- Roadrager - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 11:58 am:
I have never seen a more silent majority.
- Annon'in - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:06 pm:
Not sure who thought Porter could be candidate, but now we don’t have to fret. Still waiting Don Tracy. Do we start countdown clock? Can Rauner appointee survive a primary. Seems like GOPies biggest problems are the 2A Whack Jobs/Eastern Blocheads and TRUMP.
It would be hoot to hear the full essay on the “growth” of Plummer. We giggled on that one.
- lake county democrat - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:07 pm:
I dunno exactly who this describes but…
Try to recruit a conservative celebrity with Illinois roots who is intelligent and not crazy - kinda like Steve Garby and Arnold Schwartzenegger in California. Will help with fundraising and free media publicity.
- JS Mill - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:08 pm:
With a dearth of ilgop statewide candidates, could this be a chance for more moderate republicans to run?
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:09 pm:
Man, Rauner did a number on that party but good.
I’ve bought used tools that I took better care of.
“Tracy, 75, said that he would make a decision before the Illinois State Fair,”
I’m 57 next month and have yet to see a President or Governor younger than me.
It’s enough already.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:13 pm:
“With a dearth of ilgop statewide candidates, could this be a chance for more moderate republicans to run?”
Besides Tom Cross, I am having a bit of a struggle coming up with a moderate Republican whom anyone has heard of in the state at this point. Jim Ryan?
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:18 pm:
I am all for Don Tracy. At 75 he will bring in some new blood
Maybe just let the wack jobs run state wide and try and get some new young candidates to run for county board and local stuff and try to rebuild. It is going to be a long haul and maybe a super majority Democrat Party will collapse with in fighting. I don’t see much hope for a Republican Party in this state for a long long time
- I-55 Fanatic - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:18 pm:
There are just astounding structural disadvantages to any statewide GOP candidacy right now. Catch-22: If an ILGOP statewide challenger actually thinks they have a shot at winning, it’s an indictment on their judgement. Their best bet will be running skeleton campaigns with candidates who are just qualified enough, and then praying on the off chance that one of the Dems sinks themselves with a scandal or corruption or something.
- Juice - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:22 pm:
I am honestly shocked that Paul Vallas is not actively seeking the GOP nomination for Senate or Governor at this point, especially considering even the fringes aren’t really putting up candidates with much serious backing.
- System Reboot - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:25 pm:
IL GOP had to recruit Kathy Salvi to run for Senate in 2022 against Duckworth to prevent an all out embarrassment of a candidate (Peggy Hubbard, Bobby Piton, etc) from being nominated. Running statewide in Illinois as a Republican means you’re either politically naive, a sacrificial lamb, or some combination of the two
- Homebody - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:26 pm:
As long as the GOP at a national level is gleefully disassembling the last 60 years of post-civil rights era civil society, and state and local level politicians are cravenly going along with it, the ILGOP has a problem.
Either they stick with their national platform and accept the fact that they will be smashed in any state that is bluer than an eggplant, or they have to stand up to the crazier elements of their party and risk getting primaried by even farther right upstarts.
It is entirely a problem of their own making over the last 40 years, and I don’t feel bad for them at all.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:28 pm:
=== Jim Ryan?===
You might wanna check the obituary pages.
- OneMan - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:48 pm:
Well, that is awkward
- 40,000 ft - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:48 pm:
As a center right conservative, I find it ironic that on the same day tx democrats flee to Illinois to disrupt redistricting, Capitol Fax publishes that there is an “historic 10-15 percentage point Democratic advantage” in Illinois.
Why is this ironic?
Because under Illinois’ redistricting map, drawn during a bizarre process by democrats in Springfield, post 2020 census, the congressional delegation in Illinois is an outlier to the above quoted statistic. There is currently a 64% Democratic advantage in Congress from Illinois.
(14 democrats, 3 republicans)
Can anyone reconcile those two data points so that they seem reasonable?
To me, they are contradictions.
(I’m tracking the scotus case, Louisiana v Callais et al, which wants Voting Rights Section 2 enforced regarding no race considerations in drawing districts, because I think that’s what Illinois did with the 2020 maps. Politico covered a new scotus order issued Friday on this. I think AI might do a better job drawing the districts, tbh, open source code of course.)
- James - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:49 pm:
Are no Republican Mayors that could be recruited?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 12:50 pm:
===I think AI might do a better job drawing the districts===
Until it hallucinates counties that don’t exist.
- Pundent - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:02 pm:
=Can anyone reconcile those two data points so that they seem reasonable?=
The answer lies in population and land. And only one of the two votes.
- ZC - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:07 pm:
No “Where’s Alan Keyes?” jokes yet?
- low level - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:09 pm:
== Because under Illinois’ redistricting map, drawn during a bizarre process by democrats in Springfield==
The process for redistricting is spelled out in the Illinois Constitution. As our friend Bill Black used to say, Heavens to Betsy. It is the same process used in Florida, Texas and other Republican states. Are you unfamiliar with how it works?
- BE - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:22 pm:
I was reading a quote from a Louisiana legislator about their redistricting problems.
==Wahl said that majority-minority districts were inherently racist because not all members of minority groups vote for Democratic candidates.
“It shouldn’t matter what the color of your skin is. And if that’s the case, then if any district is drawn based on the color of someone’s skin, it is racist by the nature of that decision,” Wahl said. “I do not think this should be a political or or racial decision. This should be based on communities of interest and traditional lines.”==
Aren’t most communities of interest often formed based on..racial groupings? Traditional lines, like redlining or demographic neighborhoods or sundown towns?
It would be like arguing that a law to make it illegal for women to be outside after sundown isn’t sexist; it’s just that women have no true business being out after dark, poor weak things.
Also, aren’t the Alabama redistrictings that have to be redone specifically based on skin color already? He’s arguing that the stuff they want to do is racist, but still wants to do the racist thing.
- James - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:22 pm:
It’s difficult for middle of the road republicans like myself to consider running Statewide. The Tom DeVore/Darren Bailey crowd will attack you for even knowing how to spell Democrat. Then, IF you make it thru the primary, you have to go up against the pure nature of the electorate, which is at least 10+ Dem. It could be done, but it takes a certain circumstance where Dems are not in the mood to turn out to the ballot box, like when Quinn ran for election and was beaten by his support for pension reforms.
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:29 pm:
Don Tracy as new blood might be what some of the GOP thinks.
That would guarantee a Pritzker win.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:32 pm:
Is Jack! Ryan still in Illinois? I think we’re past the days when a run-of-the-mill sex scandal is a disqualifying event.
- Give us Barabbas - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:36 pm:
The IPI will field a surrogate to use as a fundraising tool. I heard some washed-up talk radio personality has an open calendar.
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:36 pm:
James,
Problem is that the Devore/Bailey crowd IS the GOP now,especially in Forgottonia and Southern Illinois.
My county GOP is for sure.
Then there is this Tracy thing.
If Tracy runs all the GOP who screamed about Biden being old would either have to vote against Tracy or be hypocrites and vote for him.
- George Ryan Reynolds - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 1:48 pm:
An AI-drawn map undoubtedly would include Lincoln County.
- Run Tracy Run - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 2:20 pm:
Wait a minute!
Don Tracy is seven years younger than Joe Biden.
Didn’t Aaron Del Mar promise to actively recruit candidates and fill the entire ballot when he ran for Cook County Republican Chair about one hundred days ago?
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 3:04 pm:
Run:
Biden was 78 when he took office as President.
Tracy,if the Pantagraph reported his age correctly, would be 76 if he took office as Governor in 2027.
- low level - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 3:26 pm:
Im still awaiting from 40,000 feet to explain how the Ilinois redistricting process is “bizarre”.
- Facts matter - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 4:01 pm:
It’s not Griffin’s fault. It’s the grifter consultants that told
everyone to get in line or else and then processed to get creamed
In every race. Yes Mike Z- you killed the Republican Party
- Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 4:03 pm:
===Yes Mike Z- you killed the Republican Party ===
Hilarious.
- NIU Grad - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 4:30 pm:
“Where have you gone, Jim Oberweis, our party turns its lonely eyes to you…” -ILGOP, probably
- JS Mill - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 4:49 pm:
=The answer lies in population and land. And only one of the two votes.=
Early leader for a Golden Horseshoe.
- Just Me 2 - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 5:45 pm:
I’ve often wondered how an articulate Republican from Chicago would do statewide. I wonder if there is some CEO or retired business person who wants to do a vanity exercise and make a run.
(I never thought Rauner was articulate; his money masked his inability to connect with voters.)
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 6:45 pm:
I am gonna repeat this until I am blue in the face and drop dead.
Abortion - Only 36% say it should be illegal in most or all cases.
Guns - 18% support weaker gun control laws.
Gay rights - 16% support legalizing LGBTQ workplace discrimination
I can go on-and-on, highlighting how out of touch Illinois Republicans are to explain why they under-perform.
Okay, now, think of what their candidate recruitment pool looks like.
Start with your generic successful business leader.
Now subtract everyone who believes that a rape victim should be able to have an abortion.
Now zap everyone with an LGBTQ family member or close friend.
Now everyone that believes in global warming.
Now everyone that does not believe the 2020 election was stolen.
Now search the collar counties for someone whose kids and spouse don’t mind dad being in the papers every week defending Donald Trump.
I have done candidate recruitment in targeted legislative districts. It is not easy to come up with one great challenger, every litmus test makes that job twice as tough.
The shortcut is to recruit within or through the activist organizations. Basically they work like a honey trap drawing potential candidates out of the wood work. But the people drawn to groups like Devore’s tend to be a little too whackadoodle and never vetted by voters or surrogates.
Out-of-touch Platform x Sub-par Candidate Recruitment = 33%
One of my favorite quotes is “Every system is perfectly designed to get exactly the results it is getting.”
Illinois Moderates fought a battle v. Illinois Conservatives for the Illinois GOP in 2006,and moderates lost. Topinka recieved only 38% of the vote in the GOP primary, was never able to consolidate the base.
Conservatives have decided they only have complete power within the party if it remains a minority party. They were reminded of that when Rauner flipped on abortion.
Conservatives could start making calls tomorrow to GOP moderates, saying “let’s put together a slate.” They have not and they are not gonna.
- Excitable Boy - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 7:31 pm:
- I’ve often wondered how an articulate Republican from Chicago would do statewide. -
It wasn’t all that long ago they held statewide offices. It’s not the lack of possible candidates, but the insanity of the republican base in a primary.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Aug 4, 25 @ 8:56 pm:
Why does Wikipedia lop ten years off Tracy’s age?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Tracy