|
Independent poll shows Biss, Abughazaleh tied; Pritzker hugely popular in the district
Friday, Nov 21, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller * Evanston Now…
* Head to heads…  * Major issues…  Candidates better get on the Democratic voter bandwagon. * Pritzker, of course, is very popular in the district…  The problem is, Pritzker still holds a grudge against Biss for his 2018 gubernatorial campaign. I’m not kidding. The governor still petulantly reminds even very powerful Democrats about their support for Biss back in the day (the dude has a severe case of what we in the biz call “Irish Alzheimer’s” - when you only remember the slights). I doubt he’ll say anything about this race, even though he lived in Evanston for a very long time. Whatever, the numbers clearly show that the folks in that campaign ought to tie themselves to the governor as closely as they can. …Adding… When I wrote this last night, I meant for it to come off as a bit cheeky. I read it again this morning, and it’s not cheeky. Oops. Pritzker does give people guff about their support for Biss, but he did endorse Biss for mayor earlier this year.
|
 |
|
|
- Candy Dogood - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 8:58 am:
===Pritzker still holds a grudge===
This kind of pettiness will present unnecessary challenges if the Governor attempts to run for higher office.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:03 am:
That seems like a limited view of political power from the Governor. If he picks the winner, he could legitimately say later on “you owe me, I really helped you out.”
- Save Ferris - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:19 am:
“Biss draws more of his support from older voters, college-educated voters, and those who identify as “somewhat liberal” or “moderate.””
That’s the district. Slightly less than a few years ago when they redrew the lines to give Schneider a bit of a boost, but I would fully expect the undecideds to break to someone who looks like what the voters see in their mirror each morning. And that’s Biss or Fine. And as I’ve said, I don’t see a lane for Fine to get any traction.
- localgovhero - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:22 am:
I am so sick and tired of hearing about Kat.
- *ducks* - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:22 am:
Hard to know if “threat to democracy”’s leadoff hitter status is specific to that neck of the woods, but it’s enlightening to the Chuy bait-n-switch.
- TreeFiddy - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:26 am:
Curious about the support for Kat. Since I jumped off Xwitter, I’ve been getting more politics from Bluesky, and the pundits there see Kat as one of the smartest and savviest politicians in the country (I’ve seen people say she’s showing Pritzker what it REALLY means to stand up to Trump). Figured it was just the BSky bubble, but seems it’s actually permeating into the everyday person as well.
- Chris - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:47 am:
I mean, say what you want to say about Kat Abu, but the fact that a bunch of electeds are trailing her shows that she’s at the very least in tune with the district.
Also, Laura Fine being stuck in third despite probably being the second most prolific candidate here is just not good for her. Her being supported by AIPAC has really not helped her here, at least among a Democratic electorate this progressive-friendly
- Stanley - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:48 am:
The other thing that will prevent unnecessary challenges for JB if he decides to run for higher office is his 78% “very favorable” approval with “very liberal” Democratic primary voters.
Good luck selling that Blue Sky bubble in swing states.
Kat leads the pack at 31% approval of the very liberal.
- TNR - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 9:56 am:
Laura Fine is in an interesting position. She’s been catching a lot of heat in lefty social media circles for getting contributions from AIPAC aligned donors. But if that poll is to be believed (taken by a Palestinian rights organization, ironically) the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a virtual non-factor. That indicates a big independent expenditure on her behalf might not spark much of a backlash.
She has established plenty of progressive bonafides in Springfield that could be touted in an ad campaign. Lots of undecideds for her to appeal to.
- levivoted4judy - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:03 am:
I live in the district, dominated by people with links to Northwestern and Loyola and tons of college grads and documented immigrants. They are not doing much traditional campaigning so I can definitely see why Kat is up there because of her social media acumen. It’s early but I would have thought that Fine and Simmons would poll better. My money has always been on Biss pulling it off.
- Original Rambler - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:10 am:
The Kat numbers are very surprising though I live just outside the District. Phil Andrew has a great story to tell given his association with the Laurie Dann shooting that should play well in the District but it seems like that’s ancient history.
- AlfondoGonz - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:11 am:
Very discouraged to see Kat Abughazaleh making headway. I don’t find her trustworthy.
- Steve - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:13 am:
Taxes and spending aren’t a big issue in the poll in the 9th. Obviously , high property taxes, high gas taxes, and high retail sales taxes aren’t making the 9th voters upset about other taxes.
- *ducks* - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:20 am:
“for JB if he decides to run for higher office is his 78% “very favorable” approval with “very liberal” Democratic primary voters.”
Feature, not a bug.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:22 am:
=This kind of pettiness will present unnecessary challenges if the Governor attempts to run for higher office.=
Why? It doesn’t seem to inhibit the current occupant
- NIU Grad - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:35 am:
“The problem is, Pritzker still holds a grudge against Biss for his 2018 gubernatorial campaign.”
Didn’t Biss put a heavy spotlight on Pritzker’s house to the extent that he was doing events outside of it or something like that? I remember there was controversy about if he crossed a line there.
- Excitable Boy - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:36 am:
- Good luck selling that Blue Sky bubble in swing states. -
He’s at 74% with “somewhat liberal” and 54% with moderate.
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:42 am:
I can’t see JB endorsing Kat or Biss. Kat said at the candidate forum to a participant on Sunday held by Chicago Jewish Alliance that the biggest problem in 9th district schools was Christian Nationalism. She doesn’t know the district.
- Stanley - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:49 am:
President Harris agrees with your premise that the very liberal candidate wins every swing state.
According to Pew, the 2024 electorate nationwide was 37% conservative, 34% moderate and 25% liberal.
Probably less liberals than that in the swing states.
- Loop Lady - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:51 am:
I’ve supported Biss since he announced.
Savvy, independent, experienced. Being Mayor of a diverse suburb Iike Evanston is no easy task.
He was at the facility in Broadview often with supporters and was very vocal about how unconstitutional and inhumane the proceedings were.
I’m of the opinion that JB does not officially endorse anyone.
Whatever money he donates to Democratic candidates will be well spent. Donating to a general Democratic fund is the way to go, not individual candidates.
- Joseph M - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:54 am:
Not surprised about Kat’s numbers. I said commented this in August:
“I think the politicos here are really underestimating Abughazaleh’s ceiling if she manages to turn online attention into voter turnout, especially if the pack remains crowded. Take one look at her social media and you’ll find insane engagement that has received little media coverage. Call her a carpetbagger all you want, but if she gains momentum with disaffected liberals, it’ll be a much tougher challenge for the remaining candidates who could split up legacy voters. I still expect Biss to win though.” https://capitolfax.com/2025/08/15/catching-up-with-the-congressionals-3/
The game has changed. Elections are about attention more than ever, and she knows both 1) what attracts voters’ attention, and 2) how to redirect their attention.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:55 am:
===President Harris agrees with your premise===
Those who believe 2028 will be the same election as 2024 are doomed to failure.
That’s not to say you’re wrong. It’s just that stuff changes. Fast.
- Candy Dogood - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:57 am:
===The other thing that will prevent unnecessary challenges for JB if he decides to run for higher office is his 78% “very favorable” approval with “very liberal” Democratic primary voters.===
At some point the primary for President becomes about running for office in quite a few states all at once. Holding grudges, especially over petty things, can create a smaller universe of allies and surrogates that help make the candidate’s presence felt in many more places than they are. After winning there’s no need to be unnecessarily antagonistic.
Heck — I thought this was one of the lessons we were supposed to taken from Lincoln, or even Obama.
- Northshore Prognosticator - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 10:59 am:
The polls are gonna vary where the vary. But at some point they are correctly showing that the suburban state legislator in this race has hit her ceiling of 9% or 10%. She has nowhere to go but down. The voters are left with a clear choice between Biss or Abughazaleh. I am genuinely not sure which one they will pick.
- Alton Sinkhole - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:10 am:
Don Caprara put in the call to Rich this AM, huh?
(this was meant to be cheeky)
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:17 am:
“Obviously , high property taxes, high gas taxes, and high retail sales taxes aren’t making the 9th voters upset about other taxes.”
You’re right. I live in the district and I am not crying about any of the above. I have actual things to worry about but thank you for your concern for my pockets.
Feel free to explain how a Congressman’s gonna lower property taxes though.
- Sue - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:19 am:
Would love to know if “moderate” is the endpoint in the splits by political ideology because of polling decisions or because there weren’t enough people identifying as “conservative” for a statistically-valid sample!
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:20 am:
=== Feel free to explain how a Congressman’s gonna lower property taxes though. ===
Same with sales taxes.
- Katie - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:20 am:
I have kind of a bad gut feeling about Kat, find it depressing how much money is being pumped into this race by politics scrolling addicts who think she is using the $$$ to cure hunger on the North Side of Chicago, do tend to agree that the race will be decided by Gen X cornballs coming home to Biss…but you have to admit that if there’s anywhere on earth where Bluesky is real life, it’s Evanston and Rogers Park
- Alton Sinkhole - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:22 am:
== if she manages to turn online attention into voter turnout==
Very hard to do in a primary in a midterm year
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:25 am:
===Don Caprara put in the call ===
lol
No.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:29 am:
===No===
Less than a minute after I wrote that Caprara texted me. She hadn’t seen the update until I pointed it out to her. And she hadn’t seen that comment exchange: Well you can say you texted with Caprara and she says we have no issues with Daniel and genuinely have a good relationship!
- Stanley - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:34 am:
There are no conservatives because it’s a poll of Democratic primary voters who are roughly 1/3 of the population of IL9
- K3 - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:36 am:
Listen, I really don’t like Kat-I think she’s unserious and would not be a very good Congresswoman. However, I think she is going to win this if she is running close with Biss in the polls a few weeks out. Kat is going to push out irregular voters who aren’t polled as much and in a crowded field that is probably enough to pull it off.
- City Zen - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 11:45 am:
The North Shore proving that money doesn’t prevent you from being a rube.
- Decatur - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 12:15 pm:
Another thing this shows - I think voters like it when someone has the guts to run against an incumbent and looks favorably on that candidate when the incumbent drops out. It shows courage that Kat had and the others didn’t.
The Lightfoot 2019 race is instructive regarding this point.
- Sadly True - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 12:20 pm:
Evanston has a long history of getting boondoggled by out-of-town hucksters. Those people never learn. Kat would only be the latest example of that unfortunate tradition.
- Matty - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 12:32 pm:
As much as I love having Fine as my Senator and Biss as my Mayor, Fine is going o have to drop out to lend her share to Biss to prevent a Kat upset. We don’t need a novice in Congress during these times.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 12:45 pm:
Polling memos are always most interesting to me for what they do not release. Organizations that pay for the poll withhold most of the strategically useful information, and none of the strategically damaging information.
It is hard to believe they did not ask voters what they thought of the incumbent, Schakowsky for example.
It is hard to believe that they did not ask voters whether they support a two-state solution, or believe that there should be one Jewish state, or one Palestinian state. The poll was conducted by a pro-Palestinian group, after all.
That +91 for JB among the “Very Liberal” is great news for JB, considering how hard people on The Left have tried to day that he is not liberal enough. Granted “very liberal” voters in that district are not representative of the whole state, especially when it comes to race or income.
But I think that it goes back to what I said before: the most anti-Trump candidate is going to be in a great position in the Spring.
- 9th enthusiast - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
=== the suburban state legislator in this race has hit her ceiling of 9% or 10%===
The amount of undecideds in this race would say that’s incorrect. It’s also premature to read too much on this because this is before all campaigns have really started their field and persuasion programs.
- Excitable Boy - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 1:00 pm:
- President Harris agrees with your premise that the very liberal candidate wins every swing state. -
Except she tried to run to the right and did more events with the Cheney family than progressives.
But either way, what Rich said.
- Pollwatcher - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 1:07 pm:
Something left out of this poll is whether these numbers indicate strong support or not. I would argue these numbers are, like most polls, a snapshot in time and could really shift when mailers and ads start airing
- Keyrock - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 1:15 pm:
I’ve thought all along that only Biss, Kat, and Fine have paths to victory. Fine’s path seems to be closing.
If this continues, will Fine be willing to drop out to endorse Biss? Many of her backers will be unhappy with her if her staying in the race gives Kat the win.
- Camille - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 1:15 pm:
Polls this early miss a lot. Fine has real accomplishments and real networks here. She’s going to be just fine.
- Stanley - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 1:25 pm:
Very liberal voters in Illinois 9 seem to have a soft spot for out of town hucksters , who are under Federal indictment for conspiracy to impede or injure Federal law enforcement officers engaged in official duties.
- Skokie Man - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 2:21 pm:
==Very liberal voters in Illinois 9 seem to have a soft spot for out of town hucksters , who are under Federal indictment for conspiracy to impede or injure Federal law enforcement officers engaged in official duties.==
Your trolling nonsense aside, Kat’s indictment may be the best thing to happen to her campaign. It gives her “I’ll fight Trump!” bona fides with less engaged voters in a crowded field.
If the first thing 9th District voters learn about Kat is that she was indicted for protesting in Broadview and got hurled to the asphalt by federal goons, that’ll boost her numbers.
- Eastside - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 2:57 pm:
Explain how a Congressman is going to lower property or sales tax. Really? Heard of SALT? That’s been kind of a big deal for Dems in high income districts (and Repubs too).
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 3:16 pm:
Eastside, that would lower income taxes, but not property and sales taxes. Republicans claim SALT is actually an incentive to increase state and local taxes. Others point out that it’s double taxation.
- Stanley - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 3:49 pm:
A Federal grand jury indicted her and another Cat, Cook County commissioner candidate Catherine “Cat” Sharp not for peacefully protesting but for impeding Federal law enforcement.
They appear in court again on December 4th.
- Rudy’s teeth - Friday, Nov 21, 25 @ 4:01 pm:
What a gem…Irish Alzheimer’s. Brought a smile to my face.