Everything’s more expensive lately. So when Mayor Johnson tried to raise property taxes last year, I blocked it.
Now I’m running for Cook County President, because their budget’s grown by over 250% on Toni Preckwinkle’s Watch. It’s expensive enough to live here. Taxes shouldn’t make it worse. Working Ffamilies need a break. I’ll keep Cook County out of your pocket and hold the line on taxes. It’s time for a change, because you deserve better.
10/10 placement - if he can get his ads to always run right before the Menards “Save Big Money” commercial, he’ll win easily. Save big money, you save big money, when you vote Reilly
I live in Cook County and from my point of view the county is run pretty well. The forest preserve has never looked nicer. I don’t hear of a lot of yelling and screaming like there is at the Chicago City Council. I would hate to have that kind of ethos transferred to the County.
It’s an effective ad because it’s clear and concise. But I’m not sure that transferring the issues of the city to the county really works. I’d give it a B for that reason.
5/10. It is just a “meh’. No unique or even compelling message. “Taxes are too high” is possible the oldest message around. 99% of politicians say it and 99% do nothing of substance about it in a way that improves services and reduces cost.
Rate 9/10
When Brendan Reilly was our Alderman in the 42nd Ward which changed to the 2nd Ward, his office was responsive and timely.
Hopefully, that will continue in the office of Cook County President.
All I can think of is how the 2026 primary falls on St. Patrick’s Day, and that the attack ads on Reilly in that context are going to be something to behold.
=I’m guessing that you’re not a homeowner in the City of Chicago.=
I would LOVE to hear about tax rates in Chicago or Cook. If my parents house was lifted out of Cook and dropped where I live their taxes would almost triple. Cook county residents complain about property taxes more than anyone and get the best deal in the state.
OK, Brendan. Now tell us what you will cut. Is that coming in a follow up ad?
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:23 am:
===Cook county residents complain about property taxes more than anyone and get the best deal in the state.===
Tell that to the south suburban Cook homeowner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmFhBG7zxmw
Great ad and you have to live in Cook or Chicago to understand why. Next up–Toni brought you Kim Foxx and Brandon Johnson.
And don’t forget–Toni lost every ward when she ran for Mayor, including her own. And yes, she was Chairman of the Cook County Democrats at the time. Good riddance
“I live in Cook County and from my point of view the county is run pretty well.”
That’s the ironic thing about this particular race: I think for him to win he needs a “throw the bums out” wave, which MBJ (among her protégés) may have very well ignited, and may have settled out by the time he actually runs.
Good start, but he’ll need to expand his affordability message to catch more Democratic voters. That market is there, but the challenge is doing hat without scaring away Republican voters. It’s a hard line to walk.
He can pull this off with careful, down-to-earth messaging. If he veers into Ray Lopez-style rage-baiting with public safety messaging, he loses.
All kidding aside, Toni’s people need to step up their game. This will be the strongest challenge she has faced. They have been offered assistance on numerous occasions and not responded. Do better.
Hardly - affordability is the new Dem mantra. Property taxes are a huge part of folks’ budgets. Everyone would ike to see them lower - it has reached crisis level in South Suburban Cook County
== This ad is for a Democratic primary election where increased taxes aren’t the top issue. ==
Spoken like someone who didn’t spend November working in the office of a Chicago or Cook County elected official.
The ad is pretty solid…smart to focus affordability.
Will be an interesting race. Preckwinkle is seen as a competent administrator. Can Reilly convince the voters she to blame for high property taxes and their anxiety about crime?
Not in Cook County. How else can you explain the high taxes that there hasn’t been a revolt over.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:10 am:
Rated D. There is no plan from him or any Vallas Republican in the City Council, just “cut spending.”
Would demand that he or any other public official getting a government salary with benefits while campaigning for cuts tell government workers to their faces that he wants to fire them or diminish their livelihoods, that they are the expendable ones.
I have to agree with King Louis XVI, the production of that add was just terrible. It reminds me of the old adage “Only a fool has himself for a patient.”
The kitchen screams downtown condo, just a reminder that Reilly is not like most of Chicago.
I don’t know what’s up with the constant blinking, but that always makes you look dishonest.
Not one smile? All alone in a kitchen and a restaurant?
It’s not necessary to use a grainy, slo-mo image of Preckwinkle, and he’ll probably get tagged as racist for doing it. So why do it?
The messaging is a 2/10.
In terms of his media plan, leading with an attack ad seems like a mistake. Most Chicagoans probably don’t know his name, few know anything about him, and failing to define himself in his first ads means Preckwinkle will get to.
She will probably do it by tying him to Trump and the GOP. It will not be hard.
I think it’s telling that “affordability” is his issue, and not “public safety.”
Reilly does not say what he would cut because almost all of the increase in spending at Cook County has been for the health care system, which is largely funded by Medicaid and patient fees.
So, accusing Reilly of wanting to gut health care just like Donald Trump seems like a natural road here.
In addition, Reilly endorsed Preckwinkle in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, so he has a real credibility problem.
“When did you stop supporting higher taxes?” is the responsible question for every reporter.
The strategy is a 1/10.
I just do not see a path for Reilly here. What confounds me is that he does have a path to Mayor. Is he avoiding that race because he is supporting Vallas, Alexi, Mendoza? Is he running against Preckwinkle to build up his war chest and name ID for a mayoral run in 2027?
Whatever the case, Preckwinkle should be recruiting someone now to run for his aldermanic seat in 2027.
probably an 8 out of 10. this is the kind of thing most people care about. the property tax issue in Cook County is big now so $ is a good conversation. Next hit with the crime issue. as for his personal issues, St Pat’s day negatives, he’s dealt with his drinking issue, she’s drunk on power. she gave Chicago Mayor Johnson. he’s wildly unpopular now.
Yah, 6/10. The “taxes too high, I’m the solution” promise was old when Abe was using it.
Taxes have always been too high, but has any candidate actually reduced them without hacking services we need? This will get the “I’ll try anybody else” voters but there’s not a lot of substance in it.
Taxes are sort of like torture: You’ll do anything to make the pain stop.
This isn’t just for Chicago it’s for all of Cook County. The South Suburbs were hit hard on property taxes. Many in Chicago and the suburbs are feeling the tax bite in this economy, and now paired with much higher utility bills, which have way more to do with Springfield, but the public doesn’t know that.
Toni’s big ad against Stroger, back when she first ran, was a pounding of removing the 1% sales tax he had approved. She removed it in 2013 then put it back in 2015 essentially reversing what she ran her campaign on.
=== that spot is exactly the type of stuff he wrote/approved back in the day. ===
“Back in the day” was three decades ago, if Democrats are still running ads like this, that’s bad. Its not the satirical AFSCME ad, but that is supposed to be funny.
@Frida’s Boss -
Thanks for the reminder that Reilly s even less well-known in the suburbs than in the city.
Reilly is right that voters in Chicago are angry with Johnson. He leads with attacking Johnson, and I think the add is wasted on suburban voters, they will tune it out.
I just do not get the sense that voters in the suburbs think Preckwinkle is to blame for their property tax bill.
If they blame anyone, it is the Assessor, Fritz Kaegi, whom Reilly endorsed.
Or they blame the big property owners, who get sweetheart property tax rebates.
Or they blame the State, for failing to adequately fund schools.
I am not saying that Preckwinkle cannot be beat. But Boykin ran against her in 2022 and won only 1 suburban township (Cicero!) . He did not even come close to winning a single ward in Chicago, including Reilly’s ward, where Preckwinkle recieved 75% of the vote.
Again, I do not see a path for Reilly in a Democratic primary against probably the #1 or #2 most popular Democrat right now.
If he starts rolling out endorsements from Dart, O’Shea, Bridget Gainer, or unions, I will feel different.
Right now it looks like he is spending money early to try to boost his poll numbers to prove he’s viable. We will see. Attack ads during Christmas season generally do not achieve much.
No doubt Brendan wrote it and produced it. The closing tag sounds like a State Rep. ad. He’s a smart guy and knows messaging. And he surrounds himself with smart people.
–Not defending the ad at all, but as a good friend of mine just pointed out, that spot is exactly the type of stuff he wrote/approved back in the day.–
A couple things.
1. MJM of course didn’t write the ads and his name wasn’t even on the mail/sign off sheet sheet - staff, candidate (sometimes candidate spouse). He didn’t see them unless in some rare circumstance he had to broker a ceasefire between staff and candidate and consultant.
2. Those ads were negotiated like a bill, full of compromises. Often the objective was to get the sign-off to get it out the door, not to get the best ad. And the campaign would end up with an ad like Brendan’s.
As a former staffer, he’d know the best creative advice was discarded to get sign-off, which typically meant duds featuring the candidate’s life-less mug sucking up screen time.
Judge Dredd is mostly correct on attack ads and the holidays. but during the holidays people care about money. so it is the right lead now. there’s more to mine with putting back the sales tax. and she gave the world Mayor Johnson so after the holidays the crime issue has a bunch of angles.
@Judge Dredd - I think you’re underestimating the name ID Brandon Johson has in the suburbs, and it’s not good. Tying Preckwinkle and tax rates to BJ is a good move. Voters don’t do nuance. I would bet more people know who Johnson is than Fritz Kaegi or even their own State Legislator. The top name ID in NE Illinois would be Pritzker, then Johnson. Preckwinkle would be third, but that’s due to long-term status, not anything consequential she has done.
== He leads with attacking Johnson, and I think the add is wasted on suburban voters, they will tune it out. ==
Disagree. Johnson is going to be featured in attack ads and mail all over the state. Almost all polling will show connecting your opponent to Brandon moves the needle the most.
Wow, really good comments on this thread. Thank you for the post, Rich. This one has brought out the true expert insiders who I always learn so much from. Thanks to everyone who took the time to comment.
Voters also don’t do “long attention span,” and “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.”
So, voters dont sit there until 15 seconds into the ad to find out its about the county board president race. And unless Reilly has something to knit Preckwinkle and Johnson together other than the fact that they are Black, its a waste of money.
Reilly is already getting all of the anti-Black vote, all of the anti-Preckwinkle vote, and all of the anti-Stacy Davis Gates vote.
=== An absolutely false statement ===
The only people paying attention to political ads right now — four months before Primary election day — are political junkies.
I think the only other campaign up on the air right now is Raja, and he literally has money to burn.
If Reilly had done something halfway creative, like accusing Johnson of being a Grinch to working families while playing Santa Claus to political insiders, he could probably generate some holiday laughs, maybe a little bit of buzz that people might remember after January 1.
The only thing I can say is that he is signalling his intention to be on the air through election day, and that could put pressure on Preckwinkle to raise money, if she is not already flush.
Reilly has been burning through money since Rahm left. His Year-end balance has been slowly declining since lightfoot was sworn in. We’ll see how much money folks are willing to pump into a race against Preckwinkle.
Again,I think if he were running against Johnson, he would have had unlimited cash.
=== she gave the world Mayor Johnson ===
LOL No ma’am. Brendan Reilly gave us Lori Lightfoot, and Lori Lightfoot gave us Mayor Johnson.
also awaiting post Christmas crime ads that show what a terrible job Toni’s legal adviser Kim Foxx did. so many bad decisions to mine there from when she was SA. but it’s really shocking that Toni had kim foxx as her legal adviser as when Foxx declared for State’s Attorney she did not have a valid law license. so the whole time she was advising toni, if she said she was a lawyer, she technically had no license to be one. she had to catch up on CLE requirements. what legal matters came up when she was advising Toni?
- amazing - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 8:46 am:
10/10 placement - if he can get his ads to always run right before the Menards “Save Big Money” commercial, he’ll win easily. Save big money, you save big money, when you vote Reilly
- 44 - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 8:54 am:
10/10, simple and clean. Few impactful stats and positive. Save big money at…. Good one amazing.
- OneOpinion - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 8:55 am:
Saw this ad during the Bears Black Friday game.
- Banish Misfortune - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 8:57 am:
I live in Cook County and from my point of view the county is run pretty well. The forest preserve has never looked nicer. I don’t hear of a lot of yelling and screaming like there is at the Chicago City Council. I would hate to have that kind of ethos transferred to the County.
- Amen - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:11 am:
I rate it a solid “A.” Simple and direct. Many residents feel that they are overtaxed and the ruling class does not care.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:14 am:
It’s an effective ad because it’s clear and concise. But I’m not sure that transferring the issues of the city to the county really works. I’d give it a B for that reason.
- Billionaire Budster - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:26 am:
This ad is for a Democratic primary election where increased taxes aren’t the top issue.
- Walker - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:35 am:
On brand. Good Republican ad.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:37 am:
5/10. It is just a “meh’. No unique or even compelling message. “Taxes are too high” is possible the oldest message around. 99% of politicians say it and 99% do nothing of substance about it in a way that improves services and reduces cost.
- Terry Salad - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:43 am:
I think taxes ARE on the minds of Dem primary voters. Especially those who got socked with big hikes in their property taxes this year.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:47 am:
==The forest preserve has never looked nicer==
They better. The forest preserve’s limiting tax rate increased by 50% just a few years ago.
- Not Going Anywhere - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:56 am:
==This ad is for a Democratic primary election where increased taxes aren’t the top issue==
I’m guessing that you’re not a homeowner in the City of Chicago.
- King Louis XVI - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:56 am:
To think that a former MJM staffer approved that ad. Wow. 2/10.
It looks like BR used Margaret Croke’s kitchen, found her cookie cutter, mixed stock footage, and baked that ad under 15 minutes.
- Rudy’s teeth - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:02 am:
Rate 9/10
When Brendan Reilly was our Alderman in the 42nd Ward which changed to the 2nd Ward, his office was responsive and timely.
Hopefully, that will continue in the office of Cook County President.
- Roadrager - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:02 am:
All I can think of is how the 2026 primary falls on St. Patrick’s Day, and that the attack ads on Reilly in that context are going to be something to behold.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:05 am:
=I’m guessing that you’re not a homeowner in the City of Chicago.=
I would LOVE to hear about tax rates in Chicago or Cook. If my parents house was lifted out of Cook and dropped where I live their taxes would almost triple. Cook county residents complain about property taxes more than anyone and get the best deal in the state.
- low level - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:08 am:
OK, Brendan. Now tell us what you will cut. Is that coming in a follow up ad?
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:23 am:
===Cook county residents complain about property taxes more than anyone and get the best deal in the state.===
Tell that to the south suburban Cook homeowner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmFhBG7zxmw
- Annie - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:32 am:
The energy is too low.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:33 am:
=Now tell us what you will cut. Is that coming in a follow up ad?=
I am inspired by your optimism.
- Watchful Eye - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:34 am:
Great ad and you have to live in Cook or Chicago to understand why. Next up–Toni brought you Kim Foxx and Brandon Johnson.
And don’t forget–Toni lost every ward when she ran for Mayor, including her own. And yes, she was Chairman of the Cook County Democrats at the time. Good riddance
- *ducks* - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:36 am:
“I live in Cook County and from my point of view the county is run pretty well.”
That’s the ironic thing about this particular race: I think for him to win he needs a “throw the bums out” wave, which MBJ (among her protégés) may have very well ignited, and may have settled out by the time he actually runs.
- NIU Grad - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:40 am:
Good start, but he’ll need to expand his affordability message to catch more Democratic voters. That market is there, but the challenge is doing hat without scaring away Republican voters. It’s a hard line to walk.
He can pull this off with careful, down-to-earth messaging. If he veers into Ray Lopez-style rage-baiting with public safety messaging, he loses.
- low level - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:44 am:
All kidding aside, Toni’s people need to step up their game. This will be the strongest challenge she has faced. They have been offered assistance on numerous occasions and not responded. Do better.
- Think again - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:46 am:
=On brand. Good Republican ad=
Hardly - affordability is the new Dem mantra. Property taxes are a huge part of folks’ budgets. Everyone would ike to see them lower - it has reached crisis level in South Suburban Cook County
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:46 am:
===I’m guessing that you’re not a homeowner in the City of Chicago===
Spoken like somebody who’s never paid property taxes outside Chicago.
But, yes, they are complaining right about now.
- Felix - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:58 am:
== This ad is for a Democratic primary election where increased taxes aren’t the top issue. ==
Spoken like someone who didn’t spend November working in the office of a Chicago or Cook County elected official.
The ad is pretty solid…smart to focus affordability.
Will be an interesting race. Preckwinkle is seen as a competent administrator. Can Reilly convince the voters she to blame for high property taxes and their anxiety about crime?
- Steve - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 10:58 am:
-99% of politicians say it-
Not in Cook County. How else can you explain the high taxes that there hasn’t been a revolt over.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:10 am:
Rated D. There is no plan from him or any Vallas Republican in the City Council, just “cut spending.”
Would demand that he or any other public official getting a government salary with benefits while campaigning for cuts tell government workers to their faces that he wants to fire them or diminish their livelihoods, that they are the expendable ones.
- Judge Dredd - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:13 am:
The ad itself is a 2/10.
I have to agree with King Louis XVI, the production of that add was just terrible. It reminds me of the old adage “Only a fool has himself for a patient.”
The kitchen screams downtown condo, just a reminder that Reilly is not like most of Chicago.
I don’t know what’s up with the constant blinking, but that always makes you look dishonest.
Not one smile? All alone in a kitchen and a restaurant?
It’s not necessary to use a grainy, slo-mo image of Preckwinkle, and he’ll probably get tagged as racist for doing it. So why do it?
The messaging is a 2/10.
In terms of his media plan, leading with an attack ad seems like a mistake. Most Chicagoans probably don’t know his name, few know anything about him, and failing to define himself in his first ads means Preckwinkle will get to.
She will probably do it by tying him to Trump and the GOP. It will not be hard.
I think it’s telling that “affordability” is his issue, and not “public safety.”
Reilly does not say what he would cut because almost all of the increase in spending at Cook County has been for the health care system, which is largely funded by Medicaid and patient fees.
So, accusing Reilly of wanting to gut health care just like Donald Trump seems like a natural road here.
In addition, Reilly endorsed Preckwinkle in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, so he has a real credibility problem.
“When did you stop supporting higher taxes?” is the responsible question for every reporter.
The strategy is a 1/10.
I just do not see a path for Reilly here. What confounds me is that he does have a path to Mayor. Is he avoiding that race because he is supporting Vallas, Alexi, Mendoza? Is he running against Preckwinkle to build up his war chest and name ID for a mayoral run in 2027?
Whatever the case, Preckwinkle should be recruiting someone now to run for his aldermanic seat in 2027.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:19 am:
===To think that a former MJM staffer approved that ad. Wow. 2/10. ===
Not defending the ad at all, but as a good friend of mine just pointed out, that spot is exactly the type of stuff he wrote/approved back in the day.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:28 am:
AAA+ for BR.
all the wise ole owl may want to notice Tim Evans just got replaced. Change can be a good thing. Gof luck.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:30 am:
probably an 8 out of 10. this is the kind of thing most people care about. the property tax issue in Cook County is big now so $ is a good conversation. Next hit with the crime issue. as for his personal issues, St Pat’s day negatives, he’s dealt with his drinking issue, she’s drunk on power. she gave Chicago Mayor Johnson. he’s wildly unpopular now.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:34 am:
==The kitchen screams downtown condo, just a reminder that Reilly is not like most of Chicago.==
Toni lives in a condo in Hyde Park.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:34 am:
Yah, 6/10. The “taxes too high, I’m the solution” promise was old when Abe was using it.
Taxes have always been too high, but has any candidate actually reduced them without hacking services we need? This will get the “I’ll try anybody else” voters but there’s not a lot of substance in it.
Taxes are sort of like torture: You’ll do anything to make the pain stop.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:53 am:
cook county made permanent a basic income fund for individuals. this appeals to a certain base of voters. and not to others.
- Iron Duke - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 11:56 am:
Since when is it a negative to represent the second ward in the City Council while living in a downtown condo?
Those are pretty standard appliances, not a Viking or Thermador range.
- Frida's Boss - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 12:07 pm:
This isn’t just for Chicago it’s for all of Cook County. The South Suburbs were hit hard on property taxes. Many in Chicago and the suburbs are feeling the tax bite in this economy, and now paired with much higher utility bills, which have way more to do with Springfield, but the public doesn’t know that.
Toni’s big ad against Stroger, back when she first ran, was a pounding of removing the 1% sales tax he had approved. She removed it in 2013 then put it back in 2015 essentially reversing what she ran her campaign on.
- Judge Dredd - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 12:42 pm:
=== that spot is exactly the type of stuff he wrote/approved back in the day. ===
“Back in the day” was three decades ago, if Democrats are still running ads like this, that’s bad. Its not the satirical AFSCME ad, but that is supposed to be funny.
@Frida’s Boss -
Thanks for the reminder that Reilly s even less well-known in the suburbs than in the city.
Reilly is right that voters in Chicago are angry with Johnson. He leads with attacking Johnson, and I think the add is wasted on suburban voters, they will tune it out.
I just do not get the sense that voters in the suburbs think Preckwinkle is to blame for their property tax bill.
If they blame anyone, it is the Assessor, Fritz Kaegi, whom Reilly endorsed.
Or they blame the big property owners, who get sweetheart property tax rebates.
Or they blame the State, for failing to adequately fund schools.
I am not saying that Preckwinkle cannot be beat. But Boykin ran against her in 2022 and won only 1 suburban township (Cicero!) . He did not even come close to winning a single ward in Chicago, including Reilly’s ward, where Preckwinkle recieved 75% of the vote.
Again, I do not see a path for Reilly in a Democratic primary against probably the #1 or #2 most popular Democrat right now.
If he starts rolling out endorsements from Dart, O’Shea, Bridget Gainer, or unions, I will feel different.
Right now it looks like he is spending money early to try to boost his poll numbers to prove he’s viable. We will see. Attack ads during Christmas season generally do not achieve much.
- Tom - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 12:55 pm:
No doubt Brendan wrote it and produced it. The closing tag sounds like a State Rep. ad. He’s a smart guy and knows messaging. And he surrounds himself with smart people.
- King Louis XVI - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 1:24 pm:
–Not defending the ad at all, but as a good friend of mine just pointed out, that spot is exactly the type of stuff he wrote/approved back in the day.–
A couple things.
1. MJM of course didn’t write the ads and his name wasn’t even on the mail/sign off sheet sheet - staff, candidate (sometimes candidate spouse). He didn’t see them unless in some rare circumstance he had to broker a ceasefire between staff and candidate and consultant.
2. Those ads were negotiated like a bill, full of compromises. Often the objective was to get the sign-off to get it out the door, not to get the best ad. And the campaign would end up with an ad like Brendan’s.
As a former staffer, he’d know the best creative advice was discarded to get sign-off, which typically meant duds featuring the candidate’s life-less mug sucking up screen time.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 1:29 pm:
Judge Dredd is mostly correct on attack ads and the holidays. but during the holidays people care about money. so it is the right lead now. there’s more to mine with putting back the sales tax. and she gave the world Mayor Johnson so after the holidays the crime issue has a bunch of angles.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 1:49 pm:
===MJM of course didn’t write the ads===
Um, who said he did?
- Frida's Boss - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 2:19 pm:
@Judge Dredd - I think you’re underestimating the name ID Brandon Johson has in the suburbs, and it’s not good. Tying Preckwinkle and tax rates to BJ is a good move. Voters don’t do nuance. I would bet more people know who Johnson is than Fritz Kaegi or even their own State Legislator. The top name ID in NE Illinois would be Pritzker, then Johnson. Preckwinkle would be third, but that’s due to long-term status, not anything consequential she has done.
- *ducks* - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 2:50 pm:
“Attack ads during Christmas season generally do not achieve much”
Maybe, but come Jan 5 or so, it’s all gas no brakes in terms of market noise/saturation. He’s smart to be up early, IMHO.
- Chris - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 3:13 pm:
3/10. Focusing on affordability is good, but complaining about the size of the budget seems a bit weird.
Like, what are you going to do to cut that budget? I don’t think cutting social services will play well in a Democratic primary
- TNR - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 3:23 pm:
== He leads with attacking Johnson, and I think the add is wasted on suburban voters, they will tune it out. ==
Disagree. Johnson is going to be featured in attack ads and mail all over the state. Almost all polling will show connecting your opponent to Brandon moves the needle the most.
- low level - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 3:24 pm:
Wow, really good comments on this thread. Thank you for the post, Rich. This one has brought out the true expert insiders who I always learn so much from. Thanks to everyone who took the time to comment.
- Tom - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 3:26 pm:
“Attack ads during Christmas season generally do not achieve much”
An absolutely false statement, probably made by anyone who does not work in political media or knows how to read a poll.
- Judge Dredd - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 4:33 pm:
=== Voters don’t do nuance ===
Thanks for the Capfax quote. LOL.
Voters also don’t do “long attention span,” and “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.”
So, voters dont sit there until 15 seconds into the ad to find out its about the county board president race. And unless Reilly has something to knit Preckwinkle and Johnson together other than the fact that they are Black, its a waste of money.
Reilly is already getting all of the anti-Black vote, all of the anti-Preckwinkle vote, and all of the anti-Stacy Davis Gates vote.
=== An absolutely false statement ===
The only people paying attention to political ads right now — four months before Primary election day — are political junkies.
I think the only other campaign up on the air right now is Raja, and he literally has money to burn.
If Reilly had done something halfway creative, like accusing Johnson of being a Grinch to working families while playing Santa Claus to political insiders, he could probably generate some holiday laughs, maybe a little bit of buzz that people might remember after January 1.
The only thing I can say is that he is signalling his intention to be on the air through election day, and that could put pressure on Preckwinkle to raise money, if she is not already flush.
Reilly has been burning through money since Rahm left. His Year-end balance has been slowly declining since lightfoot was sworn in. We’ll see how much money folks are willing to pump into a race against Preckwinkle.
Again,I think if he were running against Johnson, he would have had unlimited cash.
=== she gave the world Mayor Johnson ===
LOL No ma’am. Brendan Reilly gave us Lori Lightfoot, and Lori Lightfoot gave us Mayor Johnson.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 4:34 pm:
also awaiting post Christmas crime ads that show what a terrible job Toni’s legal adviser Kim Foxx did. so many bad decisions to mine there from when she was SA. but it’s really shocking that Toni had kim foxx as her legal adviser as when Foxx declared for State’s Attorney she did not have a valid law license. so the whole time she was advising toni, if she said she was a lawyer, she technically had no license to be one. she had to catch up on CLE requirements. what legal matters came up when she was advising Toni?
- Just Me 2 - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 8:24 pm:
He sounds like a Republican, which is pretty interesting considering he used to be Mike Madigan’s lead campaign director.
A part of me wonders if this is just an exercise in raising money for one of his campaign funds/PACs.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 2, 25 @ 9:06 pm:
===He sounds like a Republican, which is pretty interesting considering he used to be Mike Madigan’s lead campaign director. ===
Scroll up and you’ll see that this ad is classic MJM stuff.