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Civic Federation warns Chicago city council budget could trigger credit downgrade

Friday, Dec 19, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chicago Tribune editorial board

Despite our misgivings, we believe the opposition alders, who have performed remarkably well in hashing together an alternative [budget] in the face of a mulish and unhelpful administration, deserve support from the full council as this budget makes its way through the process in the next few days. As Ald. Lee pointed out to the Finance Committee, the tax and fee increases in the alternative budget are overwhelmingly being levied on businesses rather than individuals — and that’s without passage of the toxic head tax. Businesses are shouldering 84% of that load while residents are absorbing 16%.

For the sake of the city, the mayor ought to make this easier for all involved and declare he will not veto this plan if it ends up being the will of the council majority, which it appears it will be.

* From the Civic Federation, which actually studies government budgets

Unfortunately, even with these changes, the [city council] budget does not move Chicago appreciably toward long-term fiscal stability. The Mayor’s budget was structurally imbalanced, and so is the Council’s alternative. The latter—the only proposal still in play—continues to rely heavily on borrowing for operating costs and one-time revenues, increasing future costs and fiscal risk. The largest one-time revenue source is a massive, destabilizing surplus declaration and sweep of Tax Increment Financing (TIF) accounts. Contested history notwithstanding, TIF remains one of the City’s critical economic development tools. Bleeding it dry is not good policy if, as the Civic Federation believes, a growth agenda is the only path out of Chicago’s fiscal travails.

Finally, the burden of closing the budget gap continues to fall primarily on taxpayers, both individual and corporate, while substantial efficiency opportunities remain unrealized, including many identified through the City’s EY review. Most egregiously, neither the Mayor’s initial proposal nor the budget now advancing from the Council reflects meaningful burden sharing across stakeholders: non-union employees and senior executives will receive raises, and no concessions were even sought from labor unions in a heavily unionized city where labor is the largest expenditure category.

In short, the threat of a credit downgrade remains real. S&P’s concerns largely remain present in the Council’s budget, particularly the continued reliance on borrowing. While the Council’s actions represent a step toward a more responsible approach, they remain a fragile framework. As Ernest Hemingway once described failure, it can happen “gradually, then suddenly.”

       

30 Comments »
  1. - Big Dipper - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 9:09 am:

    When the Trib Ed Board likes you, you are determined. When they don’t, you are mulish.


  2. - Amalia - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 9:24 am:

    the entire budget process this year is filled with nonsense, albeit great popcorn watching. Support bill collection, Mayor Johnson.


  3. - TNR - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 9:31 am:

    Credit rating agencies like to see reliable sources of tax revenue that can be used to pay off debt. They’d probably be fine with either the head tax or garbage fee increase. It doesn’t matter if it’s Brandon’s budget or the city council’s, if neither of those things are in the budget (and if neither the property tax or sales tax are increased) the city is gonna get downgraded.


  4. - Crime is Down - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 9:37 am:

    Blame Nixon.


  5. - Ghost of Tom Keane - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 10:25 am:

    The credit downgrade my be real but it’s not going to change things. So, Chicago bonds will go to junk. More board based taxes will be going up in the coming years.


  6. - Shytown - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 10:50 am:

    When the Civic Federation can actually deliver on getting something done, I might listen to them, but the blame here falls on this Mayor. The fact that he refuses to acknowledge that city council is an elected body representing the same people he represents and spends all of his time in front of the media lobbing insults and threats their way, he’s got no one to blame by himself when this budget puts yet another nail in his political coffin. He’s put on an embarrassing display of not being able to read the room or understanding the art of negotiation and compromise. He still acts like an activist instead of a Mayor and he surrounds himself with the same like-minded people. This is why he can’t get anything done in Springfield. Doesn’t bother building relationships or understanding process. It’s just one giant failure after another and this is going to be his biggest one yet.

    I think these renegade or consensus alternative budget alders – whatever they’re calling themselves – deserve some kind of medal for what they’ve been able to achieve here by uniting members from all the caucuses to get together and stand up to what was a very bad budget. And this budget isn’t great, but there’s also not a lot of great options to choose from. Hopefully this opens the door to having a much-needed conversation around how city government is run and no longer operate on auto pilot as the options in the next fiscal year are going to be even worse.


  7. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 11:07 am:

    Brandon Johnson has another budget before the election. The next mayor needs to have the integrity to have a serious conversation with Chicago’s residents and stakeholders about the City’s finances. MBJ says a lot of empty leftist words. His unwillingness to even raise property taxes to cover inflation and attraction to boondoggle public projects reminds me of Richard M. Daley more than any other mayor


  8. - The Farm Grad - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 11:09 am:

    “More board based taxes will be going up in the coming years.”

    Tough to increase regressive taxes on an OverTaxed working and middle-class, without exacerbating their exodus from the city


  9. - Sue - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 11:19 am:

    All of this cries out for a legislative recall authority- 4 years of Johnson’s leadership is going to be difficult to come back frim- especially his turning CPS over to the CTU


  10. - Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 11:21 am:

    ===exacerbating their exodus===

    Update your talking points.


  11. - Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 11:23 am:

    ===Tough to increase regressive taxes on an OverTaxed working and middle-class,===

    You ever see a collar county property tax bill? Or a Downstate one?


  12. - Big Dipper - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 11:52 am:

    ==His unwillingness to even raise property taxes==

    As if the City Council would go along with that.


  13. - levivoted4judy - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:03 pm:

    It will be hard, but I am confident Mayor Mendoza is the right person to deal with this mess.


  14. - Huh? - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:04 pm:

    I own a few chicago bonds. Personally, I don’t care about the bond ratings. The Illinois Legislature won’t allow Chicago to file for bankruptcy. Chicago always has the option of raising property taxes to pay for the bonds.


  15. - Big Dipper - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:10 pm:

    After she lied about the SAFE-T Act Mendoza no longer has credibility.


  16. - Joseph M - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:31 pm:

    As someone in his 20s, I feel personally obligated to raise attention to the dangers of credit downgrades among my peers. I think this budget cycle could have gone differently if even 0.05% of young Chicagoans angrily called their aldermen.

    The perpetual problem is that most Gen Z/Millenials–even politically oriented ones–do not pay attention to their local budget. They have no idea that fiscal instability will result in higher taxes for us next year and beyond. There’s no visible campaign dedicated to making them care either, so I feel like I need to start the momentum now if there’s any hope of changing this status quo in next year’s cycle.


  17. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:34 pm:

    ===As if the City Council would go along with that.===

    City Council approved it before. CTU is bashing alders with lies about a property tax increase as we speak. It’s never MBJ’s fault though. There is always a boogeyman or scapegoat to blame. Michael Sacks made him do it.


  18. - It's always Sunny in Illinois - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:36 pm:

    With Pritzker running for another term the pressure from Chicago will be a major force in getting some State of Illinois $$……the Governors election is one in one county/city…..


  19. - The Farm Grad - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:37 pm:

    “differently if even 0.05% of young Chicagoans angrily called their aldermen”

    And tell them what?
    To insist that they cut 30% of the operating expenses from the city budget?


  20. - Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:49 pm:

    ===With Pritzker running for another term the pressure===

    I’m thinking no.


  21. - Thomas Paine - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:54 pm:

    === he refuses to acknowledge that city council is an elected body representing the same people he represents ===

    That cuts both ways.

    Many of the insiders who worked for Rahm Emanuel and Richard Daley backed Vallas to the hilt and believed he would win. Many of the aldermen who oppose the mayor’s budget quietly — or not so quietly — supported Vallas, who was undeniably supported by the Chicago Republican Party.

    They did not like Johnson before the election and they liked him less after. Maybe he could have/should have done more to try to build bridges. Undoubtedly there is a lot of mistrust from a progressive candidate with aldermen who were politically allied with the Illinois Policy Institute.

    It takes two to build bridges. Did Johnson make that harder by pushing the Gaza resolution? Yes. For sure.

    But at the same time, both sides have to work together to pass a budget, and despite what the Chicago Tribune pleas, The Mayor probably should and will veto a budget that was crafted without him.

    === You ever see a collar county property tax bill? Or a Downstate one? ===

    That’s a good point, but suburban Cook is the city’s main competition.


  22. - Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 12:55 pm:

    ===And this budget isn’t great===

    Huge understatement.

    I watched Illinois do this year after year starting with Blagojevich. They’d come to some sort of compromise, which alleviated some of the bad, but never addressed or even began to address the structural deficit. So, things got worse.

    “Gradually, then suddenly” is right. The city had a AAA rating under Harold Washington. But then Daley’s averseness to raising property taxes began the long downward slide into what will soon become an unmanageable structural deficit.

    Too many one-time and very iffy revenues in this city council plan. I don’t see much if any attempt to right the ship.

    Not that I think the mayor’s plan is better. The CTU has been advocating magic bean fixes for decades. That’s exacerbated the problem.


  23. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 1:25 pm:

    “Like” has nothing to do with it. This is not actually high school. If you need friends, get a dog. Trust, yeah, of course, because the Mayor is manipulative and will spin any real solution anyone puts forward to try to get more political advantage.

    The City’s finances were getting better under Emanuel and Lightfoot before the pandemic. Junk bond status could really be bad because so many funds would have to sell the City’s bonds. It’s not a game.


  24. - Pundent - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 2:17 pm:

    =That’s a good point, but suburban Cook is the city’s main competition.=

    The south suburbs of Cook have some of the highest property taxes in the state.


  25. - Thomas Paine - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 2:37 pm:

    === The south suburbs of Cook have some of the highest property taxes in the state. ===

    Yes. Now have you heard of Arlington Heights, Palatine, Barrington, Niles, Oak Park, Berwyn and Hinsdale? Homes there are spending less than 40 days on the market.

    === “Like” has nothing to do with it. This is not actually high school. ===

    Unfortunately, “wishing does not make it so.” It would be great if Congress, legislatures and city councils did not operate like high school. There are people actively rooting for Johnson to fail, and if the city has to suffer a little short term, they are okay with that.

    For some, it is about legit policy differences. For others, it’s about Insiders from prior administrations being able to get “their people” on the inside.

    I think people need to go back and reread the emails from Mike McClain about jobs in the Pritzker administration to appreciate the chutzpah of longtime lobbyists and special interests. They need their people on the inside, and that means they need a new mayor.


  26. - Ben Tre - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 3:18 pm:

    If alders are allied with the IL Policy Institute, why isn’t there even a whisper of cutting Chicago’s bloated payroll? To cite just one example, Chicago’s garbage trucks carry 3 member crews; the private ones in suburbs carry just 1.


  27. - Big Dipper - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 3:53 pm:

    ==City Council approved it before==

    Before is not now.


  28. - Shytown - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 3:55 pm:

    == Too many one-time and very iffy revenues in this city council plan. I don’t see much if any attempt to right the ship.==

    I don’t think there are actually any one time revs in the alders proposal outside of applying some prior year funds that won’t be spent in the current fiscal year. The other revs are estimates like any other in the budget and I trust they’ve done their homework (Waguespack, Lee, Nugent and Dowell are a pretty trustworthy bunch). So I’ll take the alders over this admin any day on that. Tens of millions in rev projections from the mayor’s current FY25 budget came in under budget - it happens with any budget, so the mayor’s office can’t pretend that their numbers and projections are any different in that respect. They’re all estimates.


  29. - Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 3:56 pm:

    ===I don’t think there are actually any one time revs in the alders proposal outside of ===

    There are more. Selling debt is just one.


  30. - Shytown - Friday, Dec 19, 25 @ 3:57 pm:

    == They need their people on the inside, and that means they need a new mayor. ==

    If that’s what you think this is all about you haven’t been paying attention to the mayoral train wreck that is this administration for the past 2.5 years.


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