* ABC 7…
llinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch is pushing for a new tax on millionaires as the General Assembly gets ready to return to work in Springfield next week.
It comes as lawmakers face a $2.2 billion budget deficit. […]
“Nothing new, we’ve done it before,” the Democratic speaker said.
Welch, in a recent interview, was seemingly unfazed by the $2 billion deficit.
“Tomorrow is my five-year anniversary as speaker of the House. And I think every year, in January, going into the start of session, we’ve been faced with a deficit,” Welch said.
* That $2 billion number comes from a recent Tribune article…
In an election-year General Assembly session where what won’t pass will likely be as telling as what might, Illinois lawmakers return to the Capitol facing a familiar but narrowing path: avoid politically radioactive fights, plug a more than $2 billion budget hole and sell voters on a single unifying theme Democrats are leaning on from Washington to Springfield — affordability.
There is no doubt that the state has some fiscal problems ahead, particularly due to federal action. But that $2.2 billion number is from the state’s October five-year forecast. And there’s a big caveat in that forecast…
The projections assume growth in revenues under existing law in fiscal year 2026 and the remainder of the forecast period utilizing the August 2025 S&P Global baseline forecast.
August is a long time ago. And the data in the August report is even older than that. Lots has changed since then.
* Back to the Tribune story…
Even with modest revenue growth late last year — Illinois collected more than $230 million more in December than the same month the year before […]
A recent report from the bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability showed Illinois received $281 million from Washington in December — $83 million less than the same month a year earlier, excluding now-exhausted pandemic aid.
OK, but that totally ignores the overall tone of COGFA’s most recent report. As I told subscribers last week, the commission said this, with the caveat that things can always change…
Through the first six months of FY 2026, total General Funds revenues are now up $1.190 billion, or 4.8%. […]
The year-to-date growth of 4.8% through December exceeds the 2.4% rate of growth that is needed to meet the revenue assumptions underlying the enacted FY 2026 budget.
So, yeah, things are definitely very rough. The Trump administration is trying to whack this state but good. Even so, revenues are being collected at twice the rate than was expected. And the projection cited by the Trib is based partly on outdated numbers and also doesn’t include changes that the governor wants to make to the tax code to further counter July’s huge federal corporate tax cuts.
The truth is nobody knows what the heck is gonna happen. But what we do know is that the projections included in the Tribune story are essentially moot.
- Steve - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 9:06 am:
We will know more by May. If they want to start having a progressive income tax as soon as possible.
- Just Me 2 - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 9:11 am:
===And I think every year, in January, going into the start of session, we’ve been faced with a deficit,===
If every year you have the same problem, then maybe the real problem is you aren’t actually addressing the “root cause” which is the State spends too much money.
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 9:56 am:
“That $2 billion number comes from a recent Tribune article … .”
Doom Grifters indeed.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 9:58 am:
Good on the Speaker, the revenue is needed in any scenario. The manufactured fear and hysteria of opponents will be nonsense (see neighboring states with progressive income taxes).
This would be an opportunity for CTU types and others ripping Pritzker to get skin in the game, go out and campaign for this new revenue. Do something other than complain, see how hard this type of change really is.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 10:20 am:
I think the bigger issue is trying to deal with a vindictive President who uses federal funding as a weapon. It’s hard to plan for something like that. You can never truly know what kind of hole might be blown into your budget when Donald Trump decides to tweet one night that he’s pulling federal funding from the state for whatever XYZ reason he happens to come up with in that moment.
- Jerty - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 10:37 am:
I guess this means no handouts for the Bears. Hopefully President Warren sees this.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 10:45 am:
===I guess this means no handouts===
Not if they want infrastructure help, which the state has already offered.
- Sue - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:10 am:
Perhaps the Speaker is unaware the Constitution prevents what he is suggesting on top of which the Governor is more focused on his presidential run to join in the effort
- Jack in Chatham - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:15 am:
The minimum wage has gone up about four and a half times. There are numerous taxes and fees that could be raised. For example, raising the alcohol beverage user fees by four and a half times would raise a billion dollars. The Liquor Control Commission needs additional revenue to fulfill it’s mandate. It has been a long time since the Liquor license fee has been increased.
- Harrison - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:17 am:
Same old broken record
New revenues are needed
There are zero efficiencies that can be implemented .
So now we are going to enact a constitutional amendment for a graduated income tax between now and May?
- cover - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:21 am:
= The minimum wage has gone up about four and a half times. =
The last time the minimum wage was $3.35 was over 35 years ago.
I also don’t understand your obsession with liquor fees and taxes. Do you not realize that doubling sin tax rates won’t lead to doubling the revenues, as many buyers shift their purchases to other states?
- FearTheTree - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:22 am:
“Perhaps the Speaker is unaware the Constitution prevents what he is suggesting on top of which the Governor is more focused on his presidential run to join in the effort”
So what’s your recommendation?
Me?
I’m with center-left Rep Ro Khanna of Silicon Valley.
A tax on wealth
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:40 am:
===There are zero efficiencies that can be implemented .===
He asked the agencies for a list of their cuts months ago.
Don’t argue like a child here.
- Jack in Chatham - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:50 am:
Dear Cover, go read the Alcohol Report released by the Illinois Department of Public Health in December 2025. More than 90% of vehicle crashes involve alcohol, yet despite this sober adults are unable to receive discounts on insurance premiums. Also you appear to be unaware of public policy studies regarding the lack of elasticity in alcohol pricing. I also wonder what the gross sales and cost of goods sold are for the Liquor Warehouse license holders? Is $400 really a reasonable fee for a Liquor Warehouse license? When was this fee last adjusted? Back before Governor Olgelvie signed the Income Tax Act into Statute more than 50 years ago.
All of us sober people are getting a big insurance ripoff because State Insurance Statue prohibit providing us discounts.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 11:51 am:
===because State Insurance Statue prohibit providing us discounts===
Serious question: How would you go about proving that you’re 100 percent sober all the time?
- Harrison - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:04 pm:
Asking for efficiencies and actually implementing them are distinctly different things.
Ro Khanna is on the wrong track with a wealth tax that is most likely unconstitutional Federally. The 16th amendment gives Congress the power to tax “incomes” not unrealized capital gains.
700 billion dollars in wealth has left California since December.
A much better idea is to change the law to allow taxing investors when they borrow against their unrealized capital gains so the gains in their investments can be passed to the next generation tax free.
- ChicagoBars - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:06 pm:
Jack in Chatham makes me miss Anita Bedell.
Miss Bedell could at least play more than one note on her trumpet.
- Sue - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:24 pm:
To whoever suggested imposing a CA type of wealth tax- ask Newsom how that is working out as the potential people subject are taking both their wealth and annual income to more tax friendly locales- perhaps the speaker should address how his spending continues to outpace inflation
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:36 pm:
==should address how his spending continues to outpace inflation==
Several of you whine about this without any understanding of inflation and how it does (or doesn’t) impact expenditure needs on operations of the government. You all act like there should be a direct relationship between inflation and expenditures. There isn’t. And the fact that you think it does shows your complete lack of understanding. Some of you all like to complain incessantly about state spending and yet you never, ever offer solutions other than “we need to cut.” Cut what? Be specific. And be realistic.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:38 pm:
== so the gains in their investments can be passed to the next generation tax free.==
Yeah, we certainly don’t want to inconvenience the wealthy by expecting them to pay taxes on their wealth. I’m sick to death of people being shills for the wealthy.
- Anyone Remember - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:41 pm:
“… you aren’t actually addressing the “root cause” which is the State spends too much money.”
Sigh. Going back to Thompson’s last years, it has been documented Illinois has a revenue structure that does not keep up with the cost of living. The “per unit” taxes like liquor, tobacco, utility, etc. Isn’t that why the gas tax was indexed to inflation?
[Heard at IPI / Wirepoints Christmas parties]
“I write the same old song with a few new lines
And everybody wants to cheer it
I write the same old song you heard a good few times
Admit you really want to hear it”
Same Song, The Who
- Jack in Chatham - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 12:49 pm:
Dear Rich, Utah allows discounts for sober driver. It is being done.
Also the user fees on alcohol are so small compared to the retail cost that they can be raised to generate public revenue without a big shift in purchased amounts or changes in the distribution channels.
- Excitable Boy - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 1:00 pm:
- Utah allows discounts for sober driver. -
Can you point me to an Illinois statute that prevents insurance companies from offering this? Or are you looking for the state to mandate it?
- Sue - Tuesday, Jan 13, 26 @ 3:07 pm:
Demoralized- the gov’s electioneering offering migrants free healthcare cost Illinois in excess of one billion before the reality forced him to backtrack- you really think it would be hard to find savings- ic the will was there like it is elsewhere it would happen