* Redfin…
Americans need to earn $111,252 per year to afford the typical U.S. home for sale, down 4% from $115,870 a year ago.
The income needed to buy a home has been declining since November, providing some much-needed relief for U.S. homebuyers. Before that, the income needed to afford a home had been rising on a year-over-year basis nearly every month for five years straight, since the pandemic homebuying boom drove up home-sale prices. The income needed to buy a home peaked at over $122,000 this past June. […]
Zooming in on local regions, homebuying affordability is improving in 37 of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas. Affordability has improved most in Dallas, Sacramento, CA and Jacksonville, FL. […]
On the flip side, homebuyers need to earn more than last year in some places where sale prices have increased. The biggest increase is in Detroit, where buyers must earn $74,912 to afford the typical home, up 3.6% year over year. It’s followed closely by Chicago ($105,440, up 3.5%) and St. Louis ($73,984, up 3%). Buffalo, NY and Cincinnati round out the top five.
* Crain’s explains what’s going on. It’s actually pretty simple stuff when you think about it…
“The reason Chicago was getting more expensive in 2025 is that it didn’t get too expensive during the pandemic,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “It’s been slow and steady growth,” contrasted with skyrocketing pandemic-era prices in places like Phoenix.
In early 2022, at the height of the housing boom, when Chicago’s home prices were up about 10% year-over-year, Phoenix’s price increase was triple that. Now Phoenix and other pandemic boom towns are giving back a lot of their increases.
A result is that Phoenix buyers’ affordability grew in 2025 by 3.7%, almost a mirror image of the shrinkage in Chicago. […]
Even though there’s a gap of nearly 11 percentage points between Dallas’s greatly improved affordability in the past year and Chicago’s lost affordability, it’s still cheaper to buy a house here
* Republican gubernatorial candidate Ted Dabrowski has been referred to as a “policy wonk” by one news outlet and as a “policy guru” by another. The wonk/guru blames the real estate trend on undocumented residents. From a press release…
Few issues contribute to Illinois’ affordability problem more than high housing costs, and nobody bears more direct responsibility for those costs than Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
The reason isn’t complicated. The 550,000 illegal immigrants (per Pew Research) in Illinois have supercharged demand for affordable housing, making prices and rents soar for everyday Illinoisans.
Gov. Pritzker is responsible for attracting many of those illegal immigrants. His sanctuary policies, generous benefit programs and a host of other policies that formed his “Welcome with Dignity” initiative made Illinois a magnet for migrants during the Biden administration’s years of open borders.
* While they do marginally drive up prices for rental units, the real cause is something else…
Similar to Kashkari’s remarks, an October 2024 article by the Joint Center for Housing Studies said that the low interest rates during the pandemic “motivated a spike in housing demand among those wanting to take advantage of the lower rates and the greater purchasing power they provided. The heightened demand from these factors quickly clashed with the country’s constrained housing supply, which remained at insufficient levels after years of underproduction following the Great Recession. These forces combined to put enormous pressure on home prices as well as rents, as the growing number of renter households competed for limited rental stock.”
The article, by the center’s senior research analyst, Riordan Frost, looked at the role of immigration in housing costs and found that “the recent surge in immigration … does not line up with the high growth in both rents and home prices that happened at the start of the pandemic.” The largest increases in prices occurred in 2020 and 2021 before immigration rose in 2022 and 2023, Frost wrote, noting that the growth rate in prices slowed in those latter years.
* And, don’t forget, housing construction is reliant on immigrant workers. Without them, stuff doesn’t get built, which will drive up prices. The industry is having huge problems on the Texas border right now…
Immigration raids across Texas are raising concerns beyond border communities, as builders and business leaders warn the crackdown is hitting the economy and the housing market.
They argue fears surrounding heightened Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity are keeping workers away or forcing them to stay home, leaving some housing development projects sitting unfinished.
Last week, a group of South Texas builders brought their concerns to lawmakers in Washington, D.C., warning that immigration raids at construction sites would raise construction costs.
“A project that was taking maybe four to five months on an average, starter-type home is now taking eight, nine, 10 months, just because of the delays,” said Efrain Gomez, treasurer of the South Texas Builders Association. “It’s a huge ripple effect.”
* Dabrowski’s release goes on to make a few good points about how our housing stock is inadequate. But, as “proof” for his illegal immigrant theory, he points to an LA Times piece about rents decreasing in that city. Except, there are lots of other factors mentioned in that story, including these…
Experts disagree on the extent of the drop; some say it’s a sign of things to come, while others suggest it’s merely a brief price plateau and rents will rise again in 2026. After all, the winter rental market is typically slower than the summer market, and the recent low is just 4.2% less than the all-time high of $2,262 in August 2022. […]
Although L.A. has generally lagged in housing construction compared with cities such as San Diego, 2025 was a big year for new apartments hitting the market, despite several hundred multifamily buildings burning in the Palisades and Eaton fires. In 2025, 15,095 multifamily units were completed in L.A., according to CoStar. That’s an 18% increase year over year and the second-highest total in the last decade.
- Casper the Ghost Bus - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 11:44 am:
Reading the wonky guru’s release, shouldn’t Ted be peeved at the Texas Governor for sending the undocumented immigrants here and driving up housing prices? #BlameGreg
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:16 pm:
The negative effects of capitalism are most easily blamed on the poor and defenseless…our wealthy overlords never seem to be the problem…notice?
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:21 pm:
Capitalism has always required slave labor…in one form or another…and who wants to hear that?
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:23 pm:
Was slavery ended or expanded?
- Joseph M - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:29 pm:
I’d like to hear Dabrowski’s stance on Trump’s quote last week: “I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes, and they can be assured that’s what’s going to happen”
I know that young people are much less likely to vote, but Democrats should still be grateful that the GOP has no actual plan to address housing affordability. They’re sacrificing their popularity with Gen Z for a few extra votes in an age group that won’t be around in a few election cycles.
Wise Dems should pounce on the opportunity and explain to young voters that they have a plan to boost housing supply.
- Suburban mom 2 - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:32 pm:
Most republican candidates today will blame illegal immigration for ANYTHING. Teddy is no different. If given the chance I’m sure he will place the resurgence of measles at their feet too.
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:36 pm:
Menial work won’t seem so worthless when it’s left undone…it’s gonna stink.
- Give Us Barabbas - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:42 pm:
I’m sure none of the home availability pinch is coming from venture capital companies buying up properties en masse to flip into rentals, oh no. Can’t be them. Nope.
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:46 pm:
Neither wonk nor guru.
Dabrowski is another bush-league race baiter who will look you dead in the eye and tell you two plus two equals five and three-quarters.
Can’t wait to hear how illegal immigrants made him lose to Gomer Pyle.
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:50 pm:
I wonder if the game Monopoly can be purchased on Amazon…maybe Walmart?
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:56 pm:
Private equity firms and institutional investors are actively acquiring residential and commercial properties across Illinois, particularly in the Chicago area.
- Jerry - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 12:59 pm:
Agree with Flyin Elvis. Teddi is neither wonk or guru.
- Homebody - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:00 pm:
People will blame housing prices on literally everything except supply and demand.
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:10 pm:
I spilled my coffee in my lap…dang immigrants!
- Annon'in - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:14 pm:
Ted is mostly a hack. Most ideas a dog whistles, have no hope of enactment and include a notion of how to get done. Kinda like GovJunk & Griffie pushing the destroy public unions as the path to prosperity
- Mark Glennon - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:15 pm:
So, our ruling class speaking here says 550,000 people who are living somewhere thinks they do not contribute to demand for affordable housing or push prices up. Got it.
- michael - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:17 pm:
about 2/3 of households own their homes (outright or with a mortgage), with standard demographic patters (older, whiter areas=higher %). So I’m skeptical anything close to a majority of voters actually want lower house prices. Their net worth will take a hit.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:23 pm:
Welcome back, Mark. lol
- Jocko - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:29 pm:
==550,000 illegal immigrants supercharged demand for affordable housing==
Ted’s (previously Schrodinger’s) immigrant is flush with cash from soaking up all the benefits entitled to American citizens.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 1:43 pm:
“The reason Chicago was getting more expensive in 2025 is that it didn’t get too expensive during the pandemic”
Leave it to Republicans to not pass up an opportunity to be racist.
How’s that Republican economy going? 181,000 jobs gained nationally for the entire year 2025. PrO GrOWtH.
- Larry Bowa Jr. - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 2:09 pm:
“Last week, a group of South Texas builders brought their concerns to lawmakers in Washington, D.C., warning that immigration raids at construction sites would raise construction costs.”
Don’t worry about it fellas, I heard down at the country club that ‘native born’ are going to fill all these jobs. Plus I hear the Dow is over 50k.
- Dotnonymous x - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 2:24 pm:
-Ted’s (previously Schrodinger’s) immigrant -
If you were fission for laughs…you got one outa me…Physics is funny…who knew?
- Juice - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 2:25 pm:
Mark, the relevant number here is not 550,000. It’s really 150,000, which is the growth in the number of undocumented immigrants residing in Illinois since 2019.
That is about a 37.5% growth rate.
But if you look at the actual growth of undocumented immigrants residing in other states, all of our neighboring states have higher rates of growth than Illinois, without any of the policies Ted is being so critical of. Maybe they are seeing similar increases in housing costs as Illinois resulting from that growth. But it is impossible for either a wonk or a guru to argue with a straight face that Illinois policies are driving up housing costs in Indiana because of HBIA/HBIS.
Plus. There are 3.8 million households in the Chicago market. I can’t imagine that an increase of like 50,000 households (assuming 3 people per household) is going to have a really significant impact on housing costs.
- Demoralized - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 2:26 pm:
==So, our ruling class speaking here says 550,000 people who are living somewhere thinks they do not contribute to demand for affordable housing or push prices up. Got it.==
You act like 550,000 people just showed up out of the blue all at once. But, because they didn’t, you are just offering up a tired talking point to try and justify more hate towards that group of people.
- Wolfy - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 2:59 pm:
An influx of immigrants can put pressure on housing costs at the lower end of the spectrum, but they don’t affect overall housing affordability and they are not the reason that middle class households are struggling to afford rent.
We need to build more homes which will bring costs down. Pew research found that the largest cost decreases of building new “luxury” housing in a city was for low-income renters in low-income neighborhoods.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 3:01 pm:
===assuming 3 people per household===
Having lived in a predominantly immigrant neighborhood for a bit, I can say from my own brief experience that 3 people per household is quite low.
- Excitable Boy - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 3:13 pm:
- So, our ruling class speaking here says 550,000 people who are living somewhere thinks they do not contribute to demand for affordable housing or push prices up. -
Flattered that you think so highly of our influence here, but what some of us actually think is that you’re using racism to steer people toward a conclusion about something that is in reality much more complex.
- Walker - Friday, Feb 13, 26 @ 4:16 pm:
Juice is correct, and both Dabrowski’s and Glennon’s slanted views fail, as usual, in the face of actual data.
Still, we’ve learned throughout our history, that facts rarely win elections.