* Isabel and I have been following this development for subscribers for weeks and weeks. From my weekly syndicated newspaper column…

Independent campaign expenditures have skyrocketed this year in state legislative races.

All of these numbers were current as of Friday, at 4:20 p.m., when I finished writing this column. Independent expenditure committees are not allowed to coordinate their spending with candidates, ergo the “independent” label. As with the federal level, they are also not limited in how much they can spend on any state or local races.

Total spending, including the race for the open state comptroller position, was at $5.5 million for the calendar year.

Two years ago, independent expenditures in legislative primaries totaled a bit over $500,000, and half of that was because the Illinois Education Association was almost fully funding a couple of Republicans running against far-right Illinois Freedom Caucus members. We had no statewide races here in 2022.

During the first primary season after the decennial redistricting four years ago, the independent expenditures totaled about $2 million in legislative races, when tons of open seats existed. The spending back then was dominated by INCS Action, a pro-charter schools independent expenditures committee with large contributions from the founding family of Walmart. An additional $500,000 or so was spent by a Ken Griffin-backed independent expenditures committee on two down-ballot statewide Republican primary races (attorney general and secretary of state) — and the beneficiaries of that spending both lost (Steve Kim and John Milhiser).

In other words, the current spending is without precedent.

The DraftKings-funded American Future committee has alone reported spending $2.6 million on ten state legislative races. Often, legislative campaign mail programs switch to all-positive during the final week of the campaign. But the online sports betting company was still churning out negative mail as I wrote this.

None of the independent expenditure committees that we tracked had yet to attack an incumbent as of this writing. They were either defending those already in office or using positive messaging and also some negative messaging to try and pick someone who is running for a vacant seat.

The online sports betting company doesn’t care for Illinois’ high taxes, so they apparently decided to do something about it, spending $577,000 to boost Sen. Emil Jones III, D-Chicago, and attack his Democratic opponent Ahmed Karrar. It has reported spending $468K backing its former statehouse lobbyist Adam Braun in the 13th House District and whacking one of his well-funded challengers James O’Brien.

The gaming company’s committee has also spent $364,000 supporting Rep. Jaime Andrade, D-Chicago, and opposing his progressive opponent Miguel Alvelo Rivera. It has plunked down $308,000 to support Shantel Franklin in an open seat House contest on the city’s West Side; $291,000 supporting Aja Kearney in the 34th House district race; and $252,000 supporting Saba Haider and attacking Jared Ploger in the 84th House District. Ploger is getting most of his direct contributions from teachers unions, while Haider is heavily backed by trade unions.

The Common Ground Collective independent expenditure committee is fronted by Chicago billionaire Michael Sacks. It had $1.7 million, of which $1.35 million went to Rep. Margaret Croke, who is running for state comptroller against three other Democrats. The incumbent Susana Mendoza isn’t running again.

The independent expenditure committee’s legislative focus is almost entirely on Andrade’s Northwest Side race. It had spent $346,000 supporting Andrade and opposing Miguel Alvelo Rivera, mainly over his failure to vote in a couple of elections and for criticizing the Democratic Party.

Facebook’s parent company Meta has a committee named Making Our Tomorrow which had spent $561,000, mostly on two races. The above-mentioned Adam Braun has benefited from $172,000 in Meta spending and Paul Kendrick in the crowded 12th House District race received $230,000 in independent expenditures.

Other groups spending money are the pro-charter school INCS Action ($240,000), the Illinois Realtors ($$202,000) and Americans for Prosperity Illinois, which put $157,000 into Republican primary races.

Some wonder whether this primary race spending is just a test, and whether gigantic companies like DraftKings and Meta will eventually unleash on incumbents during future contests. Meta has pledged to stay positive. But that could change.

It’s just too early to tell what sort of impact this legislative campaign spending will have on the statehouse. We won’t really know until after the votes are counted. But legislators generally loathe having to deal with primary opponents. Add in the possibility that some rando is adopted by a billionaire or a special interest, and that loathing could turn to fear.

* Related…

* Chicago Tribune | Illinois General Assembly races feature open seats, big bucks and a reelection bid after corruption mistrial: All 118 state House seats are on the ballot, in addition to 39 of the 59 state Senate seats, and the fight to fill those seats has drawn an influx of political action committees. That includes a PAC co-founded by gun-violence-prevention activist David Hogg and a $50,000 cash infusion [to a different candidate] from the state attorney general. In at least one race, a candidate’s family has bankrolled much of his campaign. In another, a well-heeled lobbying past has become a liability.

* Tribune | Illinois Democrats spend $190,000 to defend state Sen. Sara Feigenholtz from progressive challenger: While Feigenholtz has been a mainstay in state politics, this is her first time with a primary challenger in a state legislative race since she defeated long-standing incumbent Democratic state Rep. Ellis Levin for his seat in 1996. The Chicago native’s three-decade General Assembly career was mostly spent in the House before she was appointed to replace retiring Senate President John Cullerton in 2020. And this is the first reelection campaign for Feigenholtz since she faced calls to resign in 2024 from some faith groups who called her praise of Mosab Hassan Yousef, a critic of Hamas and Islam, Islamophobic.

* WRAM | Higgins, Templeton, and Hammond Outline Priorities Ahead of 94th Representative District Primary Election: […] “I will say another thing that is very important to me is health. I think we kind of miss the boat in our school districts. Obviously I believe reading, writing, and math is of the upmost importance, we need to prepare our children for the next stage of life, but I think that if we are able to do some sort of co-ops with local hospitals or local clinics and have them come in and actually teach people how to take care of their bodies very early, we could really eliminate some of these preventable disease,” Higgins adds. […] “I have always been an advocate for the seniors and the disabled in our communities. Often times they don’t have a voice, they may not have family, or they may not have family close by. The number one issue that we hear about are property taxes. We hear from seniors who can no longer afford to live in their homes. Also, certainly energy prices are through the roof and now we are seeing it not just in the MISO Market that we are a part of here in the state, but also the PJM Market up in the northern part of the state. We get our bills from Ameren, they come from Nicor, they are actually delivering the energy, but they have to buy that on the market,” Hammond says.

* WSIU | Three vie for Republican nomination to represent Illinois’ 118th House seat: Three candidates are vying for the Republican nomination to replace State Representative Paul Jacobs who is running to replace State Senator Dale Fowler. WSIU’s Brian Sapp talked with the 3 republican candidates in the 118th house district primary. Harold Visser, Scott Doody, and Dayton Loyd are running to serve the district that includes all of Alexander, Pulaski, Union county and parts of Jackson and Williamson Counties.

* Tribune | On final weekend before Illinois primary, candidates try to keep it local despite flood of out-of-state money: With little TV advertising, turnout among Republicans — who tend to vote on Election Day rather than use early voting or vote by mail, following Trump’s directives — could be dampened further by the weather. The forecast calls for a rapid shift to snow and blustery winds on Monday, leading to a frosty Election Day. “Look, you know, there’s not a whole lot of money this time around in the Republican primary. So I think, you know, turnout will be low, but, you know, it is what it is,” Dabrowski said before stepping off at the South Side parade.