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Question of the day

Thursday, Mar 19, 2026 - Posted by Rich Miller

* What were your biggest election result surprises on Tuesday? Make sure to explain your answer. Thanks.

       

56 Comments »
  1. - Oldtimer - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:04 am:

    Chatham School District in Sangamon County was able to pass a large building referendum, even with a separate sales tax measure for mental health also on the ballot. Both measures passed about 53-47.


  2. - Someone You Should Know - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:04 am:

    ook County Commissioner Bridget Gainer. I Hear she just checked out. I don’t understand it. I know her attendance was not stellar so maybe she was as I said checked out.


  3. - NIU Grad - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:05 am:

    Two shockers for me:
    -Not necessarily that Stratton won, but decisively enough to be called so early.
    -Two Cook County Commissioners losing reelection. Those races seemed to fly under the radar (at least for Bridget Gainer, who seemed to be checked out the last few years).


  4. - Someone you should know - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:06 am:

    Wow, Great Minds :)


  5. - NIU Grad - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:10 am:

    She has been barely visible in a community full of neighborhood festivals and events where it’s very easy to show up with a table/tent at the minimum. A non-controversial incumbent could coast for years, but needs to actually make an effort to show up.

    On that note, the fact that Feigenholtz won by only 11 points was a “wow.” A sign that our local politicos need to start working more than just when they’re contested in reelection.


  6. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:16 am:

    I thought the County Board President race would have been closer. The Tyler Technologies contract was a legitimate scandal. I watched the Fox 32 debate between Reilly and Preckwinkle, and Reilly looked like a twerp if you watched the whole thing. Maybe the voters saw that too.


  7. - DriXander - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:19 am:

    Donna Miller & Demi Palecek both getting 40%+ in crowded fields.


  8. - Stephenson County - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:22 am:

    Stratton’s strength in downstate surprised me.


  9. - Sox Fan - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:34 am:

    Maybe it shouldn’t be surprising, but I’d say it’s the bitter post-mortem in the Il-09 congressional race. My takeaway is that Kat lost to a popular politician with years of local experience and name recognition. Going online you would think she lost to a trump adjacent criminal


  10. - low level - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:41 am:

    Definitely Bridget Gainer losing her seat. On Election Night i was checking the Chicago Board of Elections site and had to refresh the screen a few times to make sure I wasnt seeing things.

    It appears she simply stopped working or tool it for granted.

    I know one thing for sure - had Kim Walz been appointed to that seat in 2009 instead of Gainer that never would have happened. Walz was Quigley’s chief of staff but was passed over in favor of Bridget. Wrong choice.


  11. - Amalia - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:44 am:

    Bridget Gainer What is going on with her? the attendance issue, going from mayoral candidate to losing so decisively. it’s very strange.


  12. - Malort for All - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:49 am:

    Hoan Huynh barely registering any votes. He was far behind Phil Andrew. Actually, surprised Mike Simmons did so poorly; he barely finished ahead of Andrew also.


  13. - @misterjayem - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:49 am:

    Tie: The margin of Stratton’s victory and the margin of Jean Kaczmarek’s defeat.

    – MrJM


  14. - Steve - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:54 am:

    I thought Raja would do better, not sure he would have won : but I thought he would do better.


  15. - Pundent - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:55 am:

    A couple of the margins were surprising. The margin of Stratton’s victory was unexpected. I anticipated a very close race. Pretty remarkable as Raja’s run was years in the making.

    And while I fully expected Bailey to win, I thought that Dabrowski would have performed slightly better as Darren has absolutely no chance of winning in November. It really shows how far the ILGOP has fallen.


  16. - JS Mill - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:56 am:

    Strattons victory a little but the margin was a real surprise.

    Hammonds loss was a bit of a welcome surprise. Not that her replacement will be any better.


  17. - Responsa - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:00 am:

    The dominance of the Preckwinkle win surprised me. I always try to factor in that my Cook County political impressions mostly come through the suburban areas. So in that context it seemed that at her age and length of service, in a dynamic environment people might be looking in a new direction. Guess not.


  18. - Techie - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:05 am:

    Given where polling was shortly before the election, I am surprised that Stratton won by as large a margin as she did.

    However as I said before, I think much of Raja’s early lead in polling was simply name recognition as he was the only one with TV ads for months.


  19. - Google is Your Friend - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:09 am:

    How quickly the night was over was the only surprise to me.


  20. - Thomas Paine - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:10 am:

    The surprise for me has not been the outcomes, but the margins.

    Stratton did not just beat Raja, she crushed him.

    I expected Preckwinkle to win, I did not expect Reilly to finish worse than Bob Fioretti did when Bob ran against Toni.

    Croke, like Stratton, was backed by Pritzker but is currently holding a much narrower lead than I or anyone else expected.

    Given the money spent by Welch, I thought the Andrade/Alvelo-Riviera race would be close, but 55-45 is a blowout.

    My takeaway is that voters migrated to the progressive candidate, which would include Senator Villa. And it’s not just more progressives turning out, but “regular Democrats” shifting their attitudes and prioritizing a Spartan Warrior mentality.

    “Give me 300 to send into the breach.”

    I think explains Drake Warren’s win too. Progressive groups and progressive aldermen signaled that Warren was the more progressive candidate, Reilly got crushed in the 10th district, and voters went with the candidate they thought would stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Preckwinkle.


  21. - Montrose - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:16 am:

    “it seemed that at her age and length of service, in a dynamic environment people might be looking in a new direction.”

    The problem for Brendan was voters had a jump scare when they turned and saw Reilly.


  22. - Leatherneck - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:21 am:

    Not surprised that Sam Cahnman lost in Sangamon County Board district 18 Tuesday night (to Miguel Valente), but somewhat surprised at the margin (62-37):

    https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/IL/Sangamon/126022/web.345435/#/detail/0541

    Maybe this loss coupled with how badly Lakeisha Purchase defeated him in 2023 (70-29) when he tried to regain his old Ward 5 seat might be the voters way of telling him, “Sam, please retire from running for office.”


  23. - ZC - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:21 am:

    I knew she might win but I was surprised by the margins that Demi won in the 13th. Just goes to show that mailers don’t vote. James O’Brien and Adam Braun buried me in periodicals (largely targeting each other); Demi only showed up occasionally in shorter mailings.


  24. - New Day - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:23 am:

    How close the race was to replace Laura Fine (Hanley won with a two percent lead) and how big a win Juliana had. I expected those two things to be reversed. Figured Juliana would go into the wee hours.


  25. - Trinity - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:26 am:

    Demi Palecek. I did not see support up her ANYWHERE. Many neighbors mentioned they felt she changed her views too quickly from when she ran the police board race a few years back. She went from moderate 46th ward Dem President to leftist “Progressive” that changed her clothes completely and hung around Kat Abughazaleh. This will be interesting because she was endorsed and heavily supported by David Hogg who is VERY anti Democratic party. I just have so many questions now. Not even local known leftist progressives endorsed her.


  26. - levivoted4judy - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:30 am:

    I live in Gainer’s district and if anyone tried to beat her, they would. She just hasn’t been visible the last couple of years. I also live in the 9th Congressional District and was truly shocked that Kat did so well and out-performed Laura Fine who went very heavy on media.


  27. - Katie - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:32 am:

    I am one district away from Hoan, never heard a bad thing about him, but he did not come off well in the forums I saw and his mailers can only be described as outsider art. I’m still kind of shocked at how poorly he did! I voted for Mike Simmons but figured he would underperform the final polls when they had Kat in shooting range


  28. - Trinity - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:40 am:

    =My takeaway is that voters migrated to the progressive candidate=

    I would have to highly DISAGREE. Statewide that statement does not hold water. It looks like Croke is gonna win this and Kelly lost by a HUGE margin. We are not NY. This is the Midwest. We are a blue island surrounded by red and VERY red rural counties. The trend of Progressive politics does not resonate with Black voters that this state depends on. A few candidates benefitted from low voter turnout, not because they were the best candidate.


  29. - Stuart - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 10:46 am:

    I was surprised by how much Stratton beat Raja. She crushed him. I was also surprised by how much Riviera beat Andrade…55 to 45. All Speaker Welch had was millions to defend seat. No longer having Madigan Troops defending is clear evidence of how fragile and volatile these Legislative Districts can be. Doesn’t look like
    Welch and Andrade’s Campaign Expert here did a very good job. Congratulations to CTU in getting their voters out.


  30. - Banish Misfortune - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:01 am:

    I was pleased Mike Simmons came in after the whole AIPAC scrum.
    The presence of all that money and the dynamic of an outsider blow-in affected how you voted.
    I believe that in a different race he would have done much better.


  31. - Downstate - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:08 am:

    Not one candidate (on either side) ran on a message of “Growing Illinois”…at least that I saw.


  32. - Pundent - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:28 am:

    =It looks like Croke is gonna win this and Kelly lost by a HUGE margin. We are not NY.=

    If you believe that Kelly was the Progressive candidate in the Senate race you have a very different definition of the term.


  33. - Friendly Bob Adams - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:28 am:

    Not necessarily surprised, but very pleased to see Kaczmarek voted out as DuPage County Clerk. She did not do the job well at all.

    Very happy to see the county party organize opposition and field a strong candidate. In the past we DuPage Dems were happy to have any Democrat in county office. Now we can choose a better candidate and get her elected.


  34. - Thomas Paine - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:40 am:

    === I would have to highly disagree ===

    Oh, you strenuously object?

    Democratic turnout is up significantly compared to 2022, not down.

    There’s no question that Stratton was more Progressive than Raja, and the one who could beat him.

    Yes, Croke is currently ahead, but not by much, and considering all of the advantages she had in endorsements and fundraising, I thought she would be over 50%.

    I have not drilled down into county-by-county results, but “counties don’t vote.” That said I know Raja had some county chairmen endorse him, and I do want to see how well that worked out for him.


  35. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:44 am:

    The McLean County statewide officer totals were interesting to me.

    I was surprised Holly Kim won McLean County.

    I got absolutely zero lit from Holly Kim and saw zero commercials for her on TV. I got some letters from other people endorsing her (friends of Sharon Chung sent letters encouraging votes for Holly Kim and Raja) but voted against her and Croke because of crypto ties.

    I am not surprised Stratton won but was surprised by the margin because I feel like Raja campaigned a lot harder here. But I guess he never made a hard enough contrast in a way that appealed to the Dem base and had no answer to JB’s ads turning this race into a referendum on if you like JB as governor. In that way, the extent of JB’s popularity with Downstate Dems despite being a Chicago guy was a surprise.


  36. - NIU Grad - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:45 am:

    I forgot about the notes about Hoan Huynh: Seeing that he showed amazing political savvy, workhorse instincts, and was a surprise win two years ago, I’m shocked he threw his career away without an actual plan in place to get more than 1% of the vote. Like I get taking the risk, but he seemingly did so without any perspective on how to win or allies to help him get there.


  37. - Big Dipper - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 11:47 am:

    The candidate for Comptroller endorsed by the current Comptroller finished a distant third. Wonder what that says about Mendoza’s anticipated future mayoral run.


  38. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:03 pm:

    ===Wonder what that says about Mendoza’s anticipated future mayoral run===

    Prolly not much


  39. - Responsa - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:03 pm:

    –The candidate for Comptroller endorsed by the current Comptroller finished a distant third.==

    As Rich (correctly) pointed out on the day the Mendosa endorsement ad for Holly Kim was featured here on Cap Fax–Kim had no money to spend. In fact the only time I ever saw that ad was here on this site. So I don’t see how Kim’s loss reflects back on Susanna much if at all.


  40. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:06 pm:

    ===Maybe the voters saw that too. ===

    Doubtful. But they did likely see the Trump ads and the ad about his proposed ICE cooperation ordinance.


  41. - Cable Line Gardener - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:07 pm:

    My biggest happy/surprise/relief was Jesse Jackson Jr loss. I was horrified that I was ordered to provide a photo ID at my precinct to vote. My precinct is in a small central Illinois town and I know one of the election judges sitting next to the judge who made the order.


  42. - Old IL Dude - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:11 pm:

    Biggest surprise was that anyone cared about people named Jesse Jackson. Kissing that ring is no longer a thing …


  43. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:35 pm:

    JS Mill beat me to it.
    His comments on Hammond and Higgins are to the point and accurate.


  44. - Cheswick - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:37 pm:

    Leatherneck is right. Surprised, but not surprised, that Sam Cahnman (my board member) lost as bad as he did. At age 71, I think we have heard the last of Sam’s political career.


  45. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:41 pm:

    ==It looks like Croke is gonna win this and Kelly lost by a HUGE margin.==

    I would suggest that Croke and Stratton were not widely seen as “moderate” candidates.

    ==Prolly not much==

    The bigger indicator isn’t Kim’s result, but that Mendoza endorsed her, instead of the Chicagoan or the Latina, at all.

    I get that they have a relationship, but Mendoza is going to need all the allies she can get.


  46. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 12:54 pm:

    ===Doubtful===

    I know. I was being a little glib. However, he was using a lot of Trump-like troll tactics in that debate, and I came away unimpressed watching it.

    With all their money, the business community in Chicago might want to try running a moderate Democrat as a genuinely, honest-to-God moderate Democrat. They might actually win a big race.


  47. - Candy Dogood - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 1:03 pm:

    These days… these interesting times in which we live — I am not sure I can be surprised anymore. At least not in a genuine sense of the word. What a month. What a year.

    Am I surprised by who the GOP decided to nominate? Yeah. But that’s more of a disbelief and no matter how much evidence is provided I have a hard time accepting that this is the party that at least some of my grandparents supported for the reasons they said they supported it. They simply don’t want a candidate or a campaign that is going to appeal to a majority of Illinois voters or even try to. The primary voters have embraced a GOP grifter style campaign. It’s hard these days to remember that there were once GOP elected officials that I respected and now they’ve all been replaced by profiles in orange idol worship.

    One of the things that I would not have expected is the extent to which many of the candidates who had no real path towards winning their primary pulled in thousands of votes driving home the point that maybe having a whole bunch of candidates on the ballot with remarkably similar views reduces the impact those voters could have in a primary and it might be better for folks that share the same perspectives and priorities to work out who would be a good standard bearer by themselves rather than leaving it up to the voters and having those voters dilute their support over a bunch of candidates who collected signatures for the sole purpose of losing an election. In so doing they lost an opportunity to build a coalition that mattered.

    I sincerely thought Laura Fine was going to do better, or at least more respectable.

    The results suggest that some organizations endorsements may not be as strong as they thought they were. I’m not sure that’s a surprise, but following where the money is and cutting a more organic process will reduce the importance and significance of those organizations. It might be a good idea to avoid training voters to ignore your slate.


  48. - Chatham Resident - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 1:21 pm:

    == - Oldtimer - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 9:04 am:

    Chatham School District in Sangamon County was able to pass a large building referendum, even with a separate sales tax measure for mental health also on the ballot. Both measures passed about 53-47. ==

    I feel this was a very misleading ballot question when the cost of the bonds wasn’t included. It also seems outrageous that it was not done during the main election in Nonmember where there is more participation, and also how a Yes vote impacts property tax payers only is open to everyone is a joke.


  49. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 1:23 pm:

    ===when the cost of the bonds wasn’t included===

    It was on my ballot. Unless you mean total payoff costs.


  50. - Chatham Resident - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 1:33 pm:

    == It was on my ballot. Unless you mean total payoff costs. ==

    My mistake, I meant that how the bonds would be repaid in that it would come from Property Tax (The average homeowner of a property worth 250,000 dollars would be paying an additional 145 dollars a year), rather than other sources of revenue such as sales tax.


  51. - Chatham Resident - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 1:36 pm:

    == My mistake, I meant that how the bonds would be repaid in that it would come from Property Tax (The average homeowner of a property worth 250,000 dollars would be paying an additional 145 dollars a year), rather than other sources of revenue such as sales tax. ==

    Ballot Question:

    PROPOSITION TO ISSUE $110,000,000
    SCHOOL BUILDING BONDS

    Shall Ball-Chatham Community Unit
    School District Number 5, Sangamon
    County, Illinois, alter, repair, and equip
    school buildings and facilities, including
    constructing safety and security, mechanical,
    infrastructure and classroom space
    improvements, replacing fire alarm systems,
    upgrading security cameras and doors,
    repairing roofs, ceilings, floors and interior
    walls, replacing windows and electrical,
    plumbing and HVAC systems, improve
    school sites and issue bonds of said School
    District to the amount of $110,000,000 for
    the purpose of paying the costs thereof?


  52. - Steve Rogers - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 2:14 pm:

    I expected Holly Kim to have performed better and even win the race won given that she actually has experience for the job and Mendoza’s endorsement, but I guess the cryptocurrency scandal hit her harder than I thought. Distant 3rd wasn’t on my bingo card


  53. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 2:44 pm:

    Cleo Cowley was outspent $750K to about $100K in the 34th House District. She won 59-41.


  54. - JS Mill - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 2:45 pm:

    = I meant that how the bonds would be repaid in that it would come from Property Tax=

    Almost 100% of the time the payment comes from property taxes. If you look at your tax bill there is one section for the Bond Rate.

    Also, if you wanted to know you could have gone to a school board meeting or called and asked. They probably could tell you exactly how much the bond rate would increase. But you would actually have to make an effort…


  55. - Candi Date - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 3:36 pm:

    The biggest surprise on election turnout continues to be that Illinois voters still don’t understand that they can vote without declaring a political party affiliation by requesting a nonpartisan, or referendum-only, ballot.


  56. - ZC - Thursday, Mar 19, 26 @ 5:05 pm:

    >> Not even local known leftist progressives endorsed her (Demi)

    Maybe it doesn’t count, but Girl I Guess is basically living right around that district and gave Demi a glowing endorsement online.


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