Your occasional state budget/revenue reminder
Monday, Mar 23, 2026 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Ralph Martire…
Start with the canard that Illinois has a priorities problem. The FY 2027 budget proposal appropriates a total of $39.8 billion to fund services, 95 percent of which are targeted to the core areas of education, healthcare, social services, and public safety. Those four core categories have always accounted for anywhere from 93 percent to 95 percent of total General Fund spending on services, irrespective of which party controlled the governor’s office or General Assembly.
So if the priorities getting funded in FY 2027 are somehow wrong, they’ve been wrong for generations, and neither party has seen fit to change them. Better yet, perhaps Bailey could enlighten the rest of us as to which core service area — education, healthcare, social services or public safety — shouldn’t be a priority.
The second prevarication that has to be dispelled once and for all is the contention Illinois has a “spending” rather than a “revenue” problem. All the data say otherwise. If the FY 2027 budget passes as proposed, spending will increase on a year-to-year basis by roughly $600 million. That’s a mere 1.5 percent more than last year, if you ignore inflation. But just like the private sector, inflation drives up the cost of funding services in the public sector. After adjusting for inflation, proposed spending on the four core services in FY 2027 is actually 1.5 percent less than this year.
Of course, scrimping on core service expenditures is nothing new in Illinois. In fact, after inflation, spending on the four core services would be 13 percent less under Pritzker’s FY 2027 proposed budget than actual spending was under Republican Gov. George Ryan back in FY 2000. […]
Moreover, Illinois’ General Spending is also relatively low when compared to other states. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Illinois ranked 39th in per capita general fund spending in 2024 (the most recent year for which complete data is available). It strains credulity to claim the sixth most populous state ranking 39th in per-capita spending is a high spending state.
Discuss.
- New Day - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:21 pm:
Leave it to Ralph to throw a truth bomb at Darren Bailey’s bogus assertions. I consider myself fairly learned on this stuff and some of this was news to me. Great job, Ralph.
- Anyone Remember - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:26 pm:
Kudos to Ralph for being able to restate this every year with succumbing to frustration at having to restate this every year …
- Juice - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:33 pm:
I generally don’t disagree with Ralph on any of this.
I would just say that a) state government spends a lot less on education than most elected officials of both parties would prefer. So a lot of those costs end up being covered by the locals, which then leads to higher property taxes that most elected officials of both parties would prefer.
b) the state spends a lot more on pensions than most elected officials of both parties would prefer. But those costs are almost entirely made up of payments towards paying down the unfunded liability. The courts have repeatedly ruled now that benefit reductions to reduce that amount are not going to happen. One party has come to the conclusion that we just need to bite the bullet and pay it down while members of the other party seem determined to live in fantasy land.
But if not for that unfunded liability, the state could spend a lot more on education directly, and it would probably not look like we have a spending or revenue problem. (Assuming that state spending on education was actually used to also provide meaningful property tax relief.)
- Mason County - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:33 pm:
It is up to the GOP to state very specifically exactly what their budget would be. What items/areas would be cut. Until they do that they will look as ‘limited’ as they actually are.
- Annon'in - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:37 pm:
Ralph always makes too much sense. It is a battle facts and common sense/data and the tradition G(N)OPPIES come unarmed. Then you ask for some specific cuts and after “health care for illegals” they sputter and say “fraud & abuse”. Usually the hymnal turns to “too much regulation” and we turn our view visions to the millions spent on reversing the damage caused by local icons like Pillsbury and The Railroads.
What might happen if Ralph and a few like minded people were put in charge for a few years. Might be fun.
- Sue - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:48 pm:
As long as nearly 27 percent or so of all state revenues goes toward funding pensions- of course all other spending is impacted- it certainly did not help that the Gov enacted his 1.5 Billion spending on migrant health care( since cut back). For those lobbying for the millionaire tax- Politico( not known for its conservative posts) claimed that MA since if enacted its own version of a millionaire tax has LOST 4 plus billion in tax revenue- people can work or retire where they choose- especially those whose income is a million plus
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 1:49 pm:
=== 27 percent or so ===
20
- here we go again - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 2:03 pm:
Darren Bailey says this is all horse hockey. And ya’ll need Jesus.
- thechampaignlife - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 2:12 pm:
===But if not for that unfunded liability, the state could spend a lot more on education directly===
Yep. If we can hold it together for twenty more years, that pension offramp could be huge for our core services, tax relief, and infrastructure simultaneously.
- JS Mill - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 2:14 pm:
@Juice- +1 Well stated on all accounts.
@Sue- you offer only “no’s” and nothing that actually addresses the issues that we face. You fit right in with the Darren Bailey’s of the world.
- The Farm Grad - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 2:26 pm:
Illinois does need more revenue.
And centrist politicians like Rep. Ro Khanna of Silicon Valley are leading the way through their embrace of wealth taxes on the oligarchy
- Sue - Monday, Mar 23, 26 @ 2:34 pm:
Farm Grad- if Ro Kohana is a moderate- call me a progressive- he is a leading member of the progressive Caucus- Even Newsom opposes the proposed wealth Tax- if Illinois wants more revenue- raise the existing rate to 5.5- millionaire taxes result in lost revenue- Ask MA