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Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Paul Waldman has a devastating takedown of Iowa and New Hampshire in his latest piece…

[The political pundits assure us] that the wise and deliberative citizens of the early states take their responsibilities so seriously. But do they really? And if they don’t, what does that say about the way we’re choosing the next leader of the free world?

* Iowa’s caucus turnout is pathetic…

If this is a typical election, somewhere between 6 and 10 percent of voting-eligible Iowans will bother to show up to a caucus. Yes, you read that right. Those vaunted Iowa voters are so concerned about the issues, so involved in the political process, so serious about their solemn deliberative responsibilities as guardians of the first-in-the-nation contest, that nine out of ten can’t manage to haul their butts down to the junior high on caucus night. […]

…Yet around 200,000 of them, possessed of no greater wisdom or insight than the rest of us, will determine who presides over this nation of 300 million for the next four years.

* And then there’s New Hampshire…

If nothing else, unlike Iowans, they have the good grace to find their way to the polls, at least to a degree. New Hampshire turnout in the 2004 primary was under 30 percent; in 2000, when both parties had contested primaries, it hit 44 percent. (Figures on primary turnout in the last two elections can be found here.)

But only three times since the current nomination system took effect in 1972, and only once in the last 20 years, has the New Hampshire winner in either party not been the man who placed either first or second in the Iowa caucus a week before.

* And why does this matter?

But while we are not literally forced, the imperious campaign press will do all it can to coerce us into narrowing our choices. Like Roman emperors glaring contemptuously at a collection of wounded gladiators, then turning their thumbs down as the crowd roars its assent to the execution, they will pronounce candidates dead on the judgment of a few thousand Iowans. No appeals to mercy or reason will be allowed once the judgment is rendered.

Question: I know this is a state politics blog, but how would you change the presidential nominating system to make it more fair? Or is it OK with you as is?

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On the 7 percent “solution” override

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As you already know, the House voted yesterday to override the governor’s amendatory veto of the Cook County assessment cap…

The Senate’s next move is still in question. President Emil Jones (D-Chicago) has pushed to the Senate floor a separate bill that reflects the governor’s higher level of relief.

Sen. Terry Link (D-Waukegan), Jones’ point man on the issue, predicted the Senate will have no trouble passing whatever version of the 7 percent legislation it chooses and predicted a tax-relief package soon would be approved. But the Senate must decide whether to go along with the House, pass the separate legislation now pending on the Senate floor or find a compromise with the House and pass that, Link said.

“I feel very optimistic,” Link said.

* I wouldn’t be too sure of that. House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie made this plea on the House floor yesterday…

“We believe there isn’t support in the chamber across the rotunda to accept the governor’s changes. If I’m wrong, they’ll send us something, and it will be a whole new game. But if I’m right, this is the 11th hour and the only game in town,” Currie said.

* Hendon may have tipped the Senate’s hand…

Yet Sen. Rickey Hendon (D-Chicago), another member of Jones’ leadership team… said the Senate may end up going along with the House action “just to give the people something.”

“If this goes down in flames, there’ll be hell to pay,” Hendon said.

Yep.

* Still, Link emphasized that something would get done by next week…

On Wednesday, state Sen. Terry Link, a Waukegan Democrat leading talks on the issue, said suburban homeowners would not fall victim to Capitol gridlock.

“There will be something done next week,” Link said, “because there has to be some kind of tax relief.”

* The governor’s full statement…

“I’m disappointed that today the Illinois House chose to take property tax relief away from homeowners in Cook County. The House had an opportunity to extend the 7% property tax cap that we passed three years ago. Instead, they voted to take it away and continue a system that places too much of the property tax burden on homeowners while it protects commercial property owners and real estate developers.”

Harsh.

* Part of a press release from the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce and Building Owners and Managers Association of Chicago…

A permanent cap would be damaging to many school districts. A district that loses tax base from the assessment cap may not be able to maintain its tax
levy.

HB 664, passed by both chambers, would implement a three-year phase-out of the program with special income-based provisions for long-time homeowners in gentrifying areas.

Thoughts?

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Budget analysis

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As you may know, AFSCME and SEIU held a rally yesterday demanding that the Senate override the governor’s budget vetoes. AFSMCE claims over a thousand people signed in as participants, with several more attending and not signing. SEIU had over 200 people at the Statehouse rally and lobby day…

At least a dozen Senate Democrats attended the rally, including Sullivan, Jacobs, Dave Koehler of Peoria, and Deanna Demuzio of Carlinville.

There was reportedly a lot of pressure on some Democrats not to attend, but they went anyway, which the unions considered a victory. [The downstaters listed above weren’t pressured, but there were plenty of others at that rally.]

* Meanwhile, the AP is just one of the outlets backing off its original assertion from yesterday that Senate President Emil Jones was completely against a budget override…

The case is closed. Or is it?

All eyes are now on the Illinois Senate and President Emil Jones as they decide what happens with more than $460 million in state budget cuts made by Gov. Rod Blagojevich. The House voted overwhelmingly Tuesday to restore most of the cuts, and the Senate will decide their ultimate fate.

Jones has some wiggle room.

He originally said “case closed” when Blagojevich announced the budget vetoes, vowing to block any effort to override them. But lately he’s been more coy.

“I may change my mind,” Jones said Tuesday.

* Pantagraph…

When asked again Wednesday if budget veto overrides would ever come for a Senate vote, Jones offered a cryptic response.

“Keep hope alive,” he said.

* GateHouse, which went against the press room trend yesterday that claimed Jones was still opposing an override, follows up today with this…

If Jones is rethinking his position, Watson said, it is because of pressure from Jones’ fellow Democrats.

“I think a lot of it has to do with his members, the fact that the Democrat members have gone to him . . . and said ‘look, these issues are important to constituents in my district’,” Watson said.

* And then there’s the BIMP mess…

As Gov. Rod Blagojevich and lawmakers continue the budget battle they began last spring, school districts across Illinois face receiving fewer state dollars. […]

Lawmakers might consider the matter this week. A bill that would rectify the problem by increasing the state’s foundation level, the minimum that a school must spend on each pupil, is pending before the House.

But until lawmakers approve the bill, ISBE says it will withhold $617 million in general state aid, spending authorized by the budget Gov. Rod Blagojevich approved. […]

State officials say they hope to resolve the matter by the end of October and are optimistic that schools will see their funding hikes. Lawmakers were supposed to complete the budget by May 31 so schools knew how much state funding they would get before the school year began. […]

The bill pending in the House, known as a budget implementation bill, would raise the foundation level to $5,734, an increase of $400 per pupil. Until that bill passes, the state board says it can only spend last year’s per-pupil amount, $5,334, even though the new budget authorizes the state to spend the additional money.

There are some other problems with the BIMP bills as well, including a Senate GOP addition that imposes a Medicaid managed care trial in Will County that advocates believe will, in reality, impose managed care statewide. [Clarifying note: The above story is about a different BIMP bill, but the two were sent over at the same time. I was trying to get the post done too quickly to fully explain this, I suppose.]

* More budget stuff, compiled by Paul…

* ICPR: Legislation, not personality conflict, is the reason for the sessions

* Chicago Daily Observer: Blue chip firms retained by state to defend Blago

* Blagojevich: Presidential veto ‘wiped out’ kids health care

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IMA lambastes governor in new radio ad

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Illinois Manufacturers Association is running a radio ad on Chicago’s WBBM 780 and over 50 stations throughout the state which blasts Gov. Rod Blagojevich…

“In recent years, Illinois has lost thousands of good-paying manufacturing jobs. Unfortunately, instead of trying to improve the economy of Illinois, Gov. Rod Blagojevich is making it worse,” Greg Baise says in the 60-second ads […]

“Enough is enough,” Baise continues.

“Governor Blagojevich has tried to raise taxes on employers by more than ten billion dollars,” the ad continues. “He promotes class warfare by calling employers derogatory names, and implying that somehow they’re breaking the law. And now, he’s trying to take the law into his own hands by spending taxpayer’s money on his own pet projects. As I said, enough is enough.”

“Ask your state legislators to continue to stand up against the self serving and destructive schemes that Governor Blagojevich is promoting.”

A second ad is expected as well.

Baise told me the ad buy will run at least through the veto session, scheduled to end next week.

* You can listen to the ad at this link or just click the thingy below…

[audio:IMAradioad.mp3]

What do you make of this?

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Morning shorts

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Paul Richardson

Paul says: Don’t worry, the Cubs will still win the series 3-2. Have no doubt.

* Worker’s embezzlement case has ties to gov’s administration

* Illinois school exams too easy report says

The Fordham report found several states, including Illinois, have lowered their testing standards since the passage of the No Child Left Behind Act. Illinois dramatically lowered the passing score on the 8th-grade math exam two years ago, which produced double-digit gains in the percentage of students who passed.

The study also found wide variations in the difficulty of math and reading exams among states and major changes from one grade level to the next within states. These discrepancies, the authors say, leave parents and taxpayers wondering what students actually know and whether test score gains are real or the result of “smoke and mirrors.”

* Tribune Editorial: Dumbing down the ISAT

* IMSA wants more support for math and science in schools

* IllinoisReview: Obtaining an efficient system for educational development

* State pays foster parents too little, says study

The Illinois child-welfare system reimburses foster parents at a rate that falls short of the actual costs of supporting a foster child, according to a report released Wednesday by two national organizations and the University of Maryland.

Illinois fell into the second-lowest category because it needs to raise its rates by as much as 81 percent, according to the report. Arizona and the District of Columbia already have rates that meet or exceed the costs of supporting a foster child. A handful of states where rates are closer than in Illinois to the actual costs includes Alaska, Indiana and Kentucky.

* Blagojevich signs wine bill

* Roeper: Legal drinking age is a farce

* Opinion: Politicians often attempt to abuse letters forum

* IlliniPundit: Fundraising turnover

“It turns out there’s a lot more churning in the system than the political professionals normally expect,” Malbin said. “We picture a candidate going back to the old list, going to the same old, same old again and again, but not that’s really the way it works. People are constantly coming in and then leaving the pool of donors. Today, there are a lot of old donors who haven’t given yet – and who may not give at all.”

* ChicagoReader: Ethical questions surround Daily Herald reporter with uncanny info and well placed girlfriend

* Daley pushes for higher taxes

* Daley told to hire 100 more police officers

An influential alderman demanded Wednesday that Mayor Daley hire at least 100 new police officers and bolster sanitation services to justify a $193 million tax wallop.

To soften the blow of higher taxes, Daley is planning to hire 50 more police officers at a cost of $4.1 million and spend $1 million to install 100 more surveillance cameras in high-crime areas.

* Mayor backs decision to withhold names of cops accused of excessive force

* 50 city workers must reapply at less pay

* Prosecutor payments in the clear

* Editorial: Higher speed limit for trucks imperils safety

AAA Chicago is lobbying hard against the increased speed limit for one reason — it believes more automobile drivers and passengers will die and be injured if the truck speed limit is raised. It is confident in that projection because crashes involving large trucks have indeed risen in our neighboring states of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Missouri and Minnesota since they raised their truck speed limits.

It would be a shame to do something to reverse a positive trend in Illinois — the number of traffic fatalities last year in Illinois (1,254) was the lowest since 1924. That sounds like a system that is not broken, so why “fix” it? The Senate has already unwisely overridden the veto; we urge the House members to put safety first and reject an override of Senate Bill 540.

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NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’m having trouble with e-mail today. I’m planning another option in a few minutes if I can’t get it to work. Today’s Capitol Fax is posted below.

Sorry for the inconvenience, particularly on a day like today when there are a couple of really big stories in the Capitol Fax.

UPDATE: E-mails are finally sent.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (Use all caps in password)

Thursday, Oct 4, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller

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