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* Take a look at these New Hampshire polling trend lines from Pollster.com…
You can click it for a larger image and more explanation, but you can easily see that while Clinton is ahead, her numbers are obviously trending downward and Obama’s are sharply rising. New Hampshire’s primary is next Tuesday, so it’s gonna be very, very tough for Clinton to stop Obama’s momentum before then. He’ll have several days of euphoric bounce which may last all five days. A negative attack from Clinton now would likely backfire, unless Obama does something bad to himself.
* One thing that is still hanging out there is the Tony Rezko situation…
A former fundraiser to Gov. Rod Blagojevich pleaded not guilty Thursday to new charges of loan fraud, as did a new defendant in the case.
Antoin “Tony” Rezko of Wilmette and Abdelhamid “Al” Chaib of LaGrange park appeared before U.S. District Judge James Zagel Thursday morning and pleaded not guilty to rigging the prices of pizza franchises to obtain higher bank loans.
But it’s more likely that Clinton will be able to use that in the run-up to Super-Duper Tuesday (February 5th) than next Tuesday. The trial won’t really get underway until after the February 5th voting is over, but if I was on the Clinton campaign I’d be plugging the Rezko trial into this developing media meme of “Obama is untested.” There’s already plenty out there to tease the national reporters.
* The on-site national press corps was all atwitter yesterday with rumors that various candidates were cutting deals with Obama’s campaign to throw their caucus-goers to him. If a candidate doesn’t attain 15 percent in a caucus, that person’s supporters are supposed to choose someone else. Turns out, the deal talk was false…
According to the entrance poll, which only measured first preferences of the participants going in, the numbers were: Obama 35%, Hillary 27%, Edwards 23%.
If we assume that the final state delegate numbers actually approximated the votes of the caucus participants, this means John Edwards was the big second-choice winner, as he boosted his final score by seven points, compared to only three points for Obama and two for Hillary. It was enough to just overtake Hillary for second place, but not enough for first — because it turned out that Obama entered as the clear winner from first choices alone.
* The goofiest lede from Iowa was in the New York Times…
Whether it was because Iowans were searching for an agent of change or they wanted to send a message that a white state would elect a candidate regardless of race, Senator Barack Obama seized victory here Thursday as a coalition of Democrats and independents flooded caucuses in all corners of the state to support his improbable candidacy.
Apparently, some editor belatedly noticed the ridiculous lede and forced a change on the NYT website.
* On to Huckabee for a moment.
National Republicans obviously don’t like the man. He’s neither a neocon nor a corporate conservative, so the establishment party is scared to death about what he’ll do if he’s elected. Plus, most of them picked their own candidate long before Huckabee began to surge, and nobody picked him. So, he’s not their guy on every level.
But that’s no excuse for the national media, which treats the guy like an ignorant hillbilly from the backwoods and has appeared to use almost every excuse imaginable to pile on, and that has clouded their judgement, which is never great to begin with.
Check out this recent post from TIME magazine’s Joe Klein, entitled “Huckabust“…
Just when you think the Republican presidential race can’t get weirder…Mike Huckabee holds a press conference here to announce that he’d just made a last minute decision not to air a negative TV ad slamming Romney.
And then he airs the ad (Video courtesy of Mark Halperin who was setting in the row behund me). For the press corps–a gazillion cameras, nearly a hundred reporters, certainly more than Huckabee has ever seen in one place in his life. […]
That sound you hear rumbling out of Des Moines appears to be a monumental implosion. [emphasis added]
Yeah, that happened.
Human beings tend to look down on anyone who isn’t from what they consider to be the “better” place to live. New Yorkers, particularly, are infamous for this, but all of us do it in one way or another.
That being said, we’re all Americans, and this is all one country, so it’s time to stop the petty sniping from elitist snobs who base their elitism not on their own abilities but simply on their geographic location. It’s unAmerican.
* Quote of the day…
On his last day of campaigning, Huckabee appeared to go after Romney’s experience with a venture capital firm that specialized in re-organizing and sometimes downsizing struggling companies.
“I think sometimes the reason that our campaign is catching fire,” Huckabee said in Burlington, “is because people had rather elect a president who reminds him of the guy they work with — not the guy that laid them off.”
* Republican entrance polling
* Democratic entrance polling
* Entrance polling analysis
*** UPDATE 1 *** I agree with this bit of analysis in the Washington Post…
Since most of Obama’s legislation was enacted in Illinois, most of the evidence is found there — and it has been largely ignored by the media in a kind of Washington snobbery that assumes state legislatures are not to be taken seriously.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Two Illinoize bloggers have good posts up today.
Dan Johnson-Weinberger was in Iowa yesterday and filed a good report. Yellow Dog Democrat says Iowa is deja vu all over again.
*** UPDATE 3 *** As you might have guessed, my father was in Des Moines yesterday and sent along this photo…
*** UPDATE 4 *** It begins, but not from Clinton. Edwards takes a shot…
In an appearance on MSNBC, David Bonior, Edwards’ campaign manager, ripped into Obama’s record on health care from the time when he served in the Illinois State Senate.
“Barack Obama’s kind of change is where you sit down and you cut a deal with the corporate world,” Bonior said. “If you look at his record in Illinois when he had a major — sponsored a major health bill that’s what he did. He watered down with the help of the corporate lobbyist and they got a weak product out of that.”
MSNBC host Joe Scarborough interjected: “Are you saying that Barack Obama is a sellout to corporate interests?”
Bonior responded, “He was four years ago in Illinois. All you have to do is look at the legislation I’m referring to.”
The Obama campaign was quick to respond, defending their candidate’s credentials both on health care policy and his ability to stand up to lobbyists.
“The reason Barack Obama won such a commanding victory in Iowa is because Americans of all parties are hungry for a leader who can bring people together to take on the special interests,” said spokesman Ben Labolt in an email to the Huffington Post. “That’s how Barack Obama actually took on lobbyists and won in Illinois, and that’s how he expanded health care to 150,000 Illinois children and parents.”
The bill that Edwards’ guy referred to barely passed the Senate. So, without the “sell out” it’s doubtful anything would’ve been approved.
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* Apparently, the deadline to take action on the BIMP bill wasn’t last night, but is actually tonight at midnight, regardless of what this article claims…
Gov. Rod Blagojevich had until midnight Thursday to veto legislation, essentially a companion bill to the state budget, that would allow schools to collect the state’s new “foundation level” of $5,734 per student, an increase of $400. Lawmakers voted for the higher foundation level earlier this year. […]
Calls for comment left with the governor’s press office were not returned, but as of 5 p.m. Thursday, the secretary of state’s office said it had not received the bill and the General Assembly Web site showed the bill was still on the governor’s desk.
The legislation, known as a budget implementation bill, raises the foundation level, the minimum amount that a school must spend on each pupil, by $400, to $5,734 from $5,334. Without that change, the State Board of Education says its allocation of general state aid is governed by last year’s foundation level.
The secretary of state has been told to expect some action from the governor today. Word is the office was told the same thing yesterday, but the governor changed his mind. If he doesn’t take action by tonight, the bill becomes law without his signature.
* This article had it right…
Schools around the state are poised to collect more than $600 million set aside for them in August, if Gov. Rod Blagojevich does not veto the legislation before midnight tonight.
If he signs the bill, or takes no other action, the money will be freed up for state school districts. But if he vetoes any part of it, the money — and the school districts — remain in limbo.
* Back in November, the governor indicated that he might change the legislation…
Gov. Rod Blagojevich may be setting up another potentially ugly showdown with state lawmakers. This time, it’s about state spending on schools.
The governor hinted this week that he may take his veto pen to budget legislation sent to him by the General Assembly more than four weeks ago.
“We’re looking at that bill. I think there could be a way to actually put more money into education,” Blagojevich said.
The governor’s move could set up a new battleground in a year that has seen him warring with legislative leaders over everything from health care spending to what time of the day they begin meeting.
* It’s uncertain what he’ll do. The teachers unions and school lobsters are more than a little peeved at the governor for demanding for weeks that the General Assembly pass the BIMP and then sitting on it for so long.
* Watch this space for updates. You can monitor the bill’s status here.
*** UPDATE 1 *** The governor has used his amendatory veto on the BIMP. Stay tuned for more info.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Blagojevich press release…
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich today took action on a Budget Implementation Bill (BIMP) that will give Illinois schools a $560 million increase in state funding. Senate Bill 783, the BIMP for Fiscal Year 2008, provides a record amount of funding for school districts throughout Illinois. With this
year’s increase, the FY08 appropriation is the largest total annual investment in education in state history.
The Governor used his amendatory veto power to get school districts quicker access to additional funding for special education staff. This is the first time
since 1985 that districts will receive a higher rate to help cover special education staff salaries.
Under the BIMP bill, districts will get an additional $1,000 for each certified teacher and $700 for each non-certified staff member. Because of a drafting error, districts were not scheduled to begin receiving that money until FY 2009. If accepted by state lawmakers, Gov. Blagojevich’s amendatory veto means districts will get that money beginning in the
next few weeks.
That’s ridiculous. They could’ve done a cleanup bill. Now, both chambers will have to accept the guv’s AV before schools (and the state police and the secretary of state, etc.) will get their money.
*** UPDATE 3 *** There was another AV message, but this, too, could have been corrected with a trailer bill…
The Governor also issued an amendatory veto to correct an error in the state’s Road Fund cap.
As written, the BIMP bill extends the cap on funding the Illinois State Police (ISP) can use from the Road Fund to $97 million. With only a $97 million extension, the state police could not spend all the money appropriated to them, which would impact staffing. The Governor’s amendatory veto will extend the cap to $106.1 million, consistent with the spending authority given to the agency in the budget passed by the General Assembly. With the correction, ISP will have the funds needed to maintain existing frontline police levels.
“The Governor’s amendatory veto will correct an oversight in the BIMP bill that could have had a very serious and detrimental impact on public safety in Illinois. Making sure the State Police’s spending authority matches its appropriation means we can cover our costs, meet our contract agreements and keep troopers on the frontlines,” said ISP Dir. Larry Trent.
*** UPDATE 4 *** I haven’t been able to get a comment yet from the Senate or the House Democrats, but considering that Speaker Madigan and the governor don’t get along at all and are never on the same page, this update from the SJ-R may not turn out to be true…
School districts in Illinois Friday got step closer to collecting an extra $600 million in state funding contained in the budget passed in August.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich used his amendatory veto powers Friday on a bill authorizing school districts to collect the extra money contained in the budget. Blagojevich’s office described the changes technical.
Lawmakers could approve the changes as early as next week, paving the way for schools to collect the funds.
*** UPDATE 5 *** Here’s a brief transcription of the AV…
following specific recommendations for change:
page 43, after 2007, by deleting, “and 2008″ and page 43 line 3 before 2007 by reinserting “and” and on page 43, line 5 after 97,313,000, by inserting “For fiscal year 2008 only, no road fund monies shall be appropriated by the department of state police for the purposes of this section in excess of $106,100,000.”
page 337, line 20 by replacing 2006-2007 with 2005-2006
page 337 line 21 by replacing 2007-2008 with 2006-2007
page 338 line 18 replacing 2006-2007 with 2005-2006
page 338, line 18 replacing 2007-2008 with 2006-2007
page 338 line 23 replacing 2006-2007 with 2005-2006
page 338 line 24, replacing 2007-2008 with 2006-2007
page 339 line 5 repl 2007-2008 w/ 2006-2007
p 339 line 10 rep 2006-2007 w/2005-2006
p 339 line 11 rep2007-2008 w/2006-2007
p 339 line 21 rep 2006-2007 w/ 2005-2006
and page 339 line 21, re 2007-2008 with 2006-2007
*** UPDATE 6 *** The SJ-R has now revised its story…
School districts in Illinois will have to wait a while longer to collect an extra $600 million in state funding contained in the budget passed in August.
If they ever get it. Stay tuned.
*** UPDATE 7 *** You can read the official AV message by clicking here.
*** UPDATE 8 *** From the governor’s office…
The BIMP is a lengthy and very technical bill. It was important to make sure it accomplished what it is supposed to. It’s good that we took time to be thorough in our review because during the process we found these issues that could cause problems for schools and the state police if they are not fixed.
*** UPDATE 9 *** More from the governor’s office…
[The governor] did talk to some of the leaders. The changes shouldn’t be controversial — they just make sure the BIMP is consistent with the budget lawmakers passed. Without the changes, schools would not get all of the special ed $ they’re supposed to get in the budget, and neither would the state police.
This, of course, doesn’t explain why they couldn’t have just run a trailer bill with cleanup language.
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Morning shorts
Friday, Jan 4, 2008 - Posted by Paul Richardson
* State lawmaker will serve in Iraq
State Rep. Jim Watson, R-Jacksonville, is being deployed to Iraq as a member of the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve.
“We know that our unit has been mobilized,” Watson said Thursday. “I will be heading out to California around the 17th or 20th of January.” […]
Because he is an elected official, Watson said, his deployment will be for 270 days - a limit established by the Defense Department.
* At 114, daughter of sharecroppers may be oldest to register in state’s history; more here
“I just have to make sure you’re over 18,” Chicago Board of Election Commissioners Chairman Langdon Neal quipped Thursday.
Crammed into the tiny living room of Call’s Bronzeville apartment for her birthday party — she was born Jan. 4, 1894 — were officials of the election board and Ald. Pat Dowell’s (4th) office, and myriad TV cameras.
* Have you registered to vote in Illinois?
* Openlineblog: Hastert endorsement boosts Oberweis poll numbers; Lauzen endorsed by Peter Fitzgerald
* Team America: Debate showdown week approaches for Seals and Footlik
* Alderman wary of Wrigley deal
Former Gov. James Thompson, chairman of the authority, has said that such a transaction would be “very challenging and complex,” but added he believes it could be done without using tax dollars.
Tunney, however, said he’s still “worried about any use of tax dollars.”
* Editorial: Something must be done to handle traffic at O’Hare
* Sun-Times Editorial: Fermilab funding cuts don’t make sense
* Officials hear few reports of smoking ban violations
* Immigrant influx to Chicago suburbs spawns foreign language schools for kids
* For What It’s Worth: Blog with commentary, information on Cook Co. judicial races
* U of I Global campus debut a dud
University of Illinois officials expected that their Global Campus project would start small. But when online classes began Wednesday, there were fewer than 15 students enrolled, far lower than the 75 students predicted last year.
Officials attribute the low enrollment to having little time to market the project after a four-month delay in getting it approved by university trustees. U. of I. President B. Joseph White, who has predicted that online enrollment will eventually exceed the 70,000 students at the university’s three traditional campuses combined, has banked his reputation on the project’s success.
* Chicago Public Radio: Illinois stands with California in admissions fight
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Police state
Thursday, Jan 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Blagojevich administration is looking more and more like the Bush administration every day…
When the Illinois Gaming Board first proposed checking IDs of patrons to keep problem gamblers out of casinos, the Illinois casino industry objected with high-minded concerns that police might start looking for more than just problem gamblers.
Anti-gambling advocates guffawed at the objection, calling the possibility far-fetched.
Turns out, the gambling industry was right.
The Illinois State Police and gambling board acknowledged this week that in addition to checking gamblers for being on the casino self-exclusion list, they also are “randomly” checking patrons for outstanding criminal warrants and for being unregistered sex offenders.
And they’ve been quietly doing it for some time — unbeknown even to the Illinois Gaming Board chairman himself.
The police won’t say how “random” their search is, but every time you walk into a casino you’re exposing yourself to police scrutiny - without any legal basis.
Nobody wants to be put into the position of defending unregistered sex offenders, but imagine if you forgot to pay a speeding ticket and all of a sudden you find yourself being escorted out of the casino.
This has to stop. If the General Assembly wants to give the police the authority to do this, fine. But until then, citizens shouldn’t be subjected to police background checks just because they want to pump a few bucks into a slot machine.
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TV coverage roundup (what there was of it)
Thursday, Jan 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This story about yesterday’s special session was a bit misleading…
The state’s capitol was so empty it seemed you could drive a CTA bus through the halls, and not endanger anybody. The legislative chambers were also mostly empty.
A sparsely-attended Senate meeting adjourned after two minutes. Attendance in the House was slightly better, but the session ended there after 13 minutes.
Actually, 14 or 15 Senators showed up (depending on the count), while 70 House members answered the roll call.
* And this piece puts all the onus on the General Assembly, while the governor gets the spin…
CTA, Pace and Metra commuters could all be seeing service cuts and fare increases if the lawmakers do not come up with a solution by January 20. […]
It’s not only a new year, but it’s a new day. And there’s no time to delay in saving the CTA,” said Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
* What’s the connection? They’re both TV stories. As somebody pointed out in comments, the TV reporters tended to give the governor more of a benefit of the doubt than the newspaper reporters did. And, frankly, when it comes to impact on the citizenry, TV swamps newsprint.
What just about everyone missed is that only eight Senate Democrats came to town yesterday. That’s eight out of 37 in a chamber controlled by the governor’s biggest ally.
Most lawmakers skipped the session.
To be more accurate, most Senators skipped the session. A clear majority of House members showed.
* Meanwhile, I couldn’t find any Chicago TV stories about the governor’s pretty disastrous press conference yesterday. Fox Chicago put a Sun-Times piece on its website, but that was it…
Gov. Blagojevich Wednesday afternoon bluntly dismissed federal investigations that have sparked indictments against two of his top political fund-raisers. The governor called the investigation, “tangential, collateral” matters detracting from important issues like mass-transit funding.
As that commenter on yesterday’s item noted, blog writers and blog readers need to pay a whole lot more attention to what actually gets on TV, where the vast majority of people receive their news. We’re all tuned in, but it’s important to know how our info differs from just about everyone else’s.
* More special session stuff, compiled by Paul…
* No skyway funds to bail out CTA says Daley
* It is mostly no shows at transit special session
* Few show up for special session
* Editorial: No apparent resolution to end impasse
* Mass transit funding still on hold
* Gov wants gasoline tax funds to help Chicago transit systems
* Bethany Jaeger: Old problems carry over into new year
* Gov scoffs at probes, media: ‘They like to sell newspapers’
* Chicago Public Radio: Blagojevich denies connection to federal investigation
* Blagojevich denies role in kickback scheme
* Governor dismisses talk about corruption probe
* Governor issues flat denial
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We need a better explanation of Wrigley sale
Thursday, Jan 3, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think it’s time somebody finally figures out just what the heck has really been proposed for the Wrigley Field deal. This is one of the stories we’ve been fed…
The Cubs would sell the park to the [state] agency for the nominal sum of $1, and the new owners would sign on to rent the park from the state for at least 30 years. In exchange the Sports Facilities Authority would issue bonds to cover reconstruction costs.
* But this nugget is from today’s Sun-Times. It’s buried in an article about how Mayor Daley has changed his tune and is now keeping an open mind about a potential state buyout of the park…
Since then, sources said the mayor and his staff have been fully briefed on a deal that would guarantee [Tribune Co. owner Sam Zell] a huge up-front payment for Wrigley — tens of millions higher than he might otherwise receive selling the stadium privately — by having the ISFA use its power to issue tax-exempt, longer-term bonds at a reduced interest rate.
The bonds would be retired by 30 years of stadium rent from a new owner who would sign an “ironclad commitment” to remain at Wrigley during that time.
A dollar would not qualify as a “huge up-front payment.”
* The Tribune had this brief explanation in a story last month…
Selling Wrigley to [the state] could be more profitable for the future employee owners of Tribune Co. because of the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds used to finance the purchase.
For a dollar?
* And then there’s the benefits of a state sale for the new Cubs owners…
In addition, if the state owns Wrigley Field, the new owners won’t have to pay property taxes on it. In 2007 the Tribune Company paid $1,151,487 in property taxes on Wrigley. This year the bill will go up to around $1.43 million. At the rate property taxes are soaring, the new owners are looking to save more than $50 million in property taxes over the course of the 30-year lease.
* And could a TIF district be involved? This is also from the Sun-Times…
[Jim Thompson] acknowledged that “there would have to be neighborhood improvements along with restoration of the stadium.”
But he said, “For the moment, I’m not looking at taxes. I’m looking at non-tax revenue” like the tax increment financing scheme now being used to bankroll a new $1 billion Yankee Stadium on a park across the street from the House that Ruth Built.
TIF Districts are tax revenues by another name, Thompson.
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Morning shorts
Thursday, Jan 3, 2008 - Posted by Paul Richardson
* O’Hare again nation’s second busiest airport; more here
* Phil Kadner: What people will NOT say in 2008
* Steve Chapman: Think positive about negative campaigning
The spot thus passes the only two tests voters should apply to any campaign attack: Is it true, and is it important? Accusing Romney of having devil’s horns would be unacceptable because, though significant, it’s not true. Accusing him of owning too many sweaters, though true, would be over the line because it doesn’t matter…
Thomas Jefferson once said that he would prefer newspapers without a government to a government without newspapers. Given a choice between politics with no negative campaigning and politics with only negative campaigning, I suspect he would prefer the latter.
* State in rush for primary
* Lawsuit in 14th District: Reasonable deadlines sought for canvassing, absentee voting; more here
Election authorities throughout the 14th Congressional District plan to file suit seeking exemptions from state standards so they can hold a special election on March 8.
Because there are only 31 days between the special primary election on Feb. 5 and the March 8 special congressional election, the local election authorities cannot meet standard election law requirements on such things as canvassing the primary vote and certifying the results, getting absentee voting started and other procedures.
* Bernie Schoenburg: Illinois new primary date puts state in spotlight for Giuliani camp
“Illinois is extraordinarily important this year, much more so than in many years in the past,” said MIKE DuHAIME, Giuliani’s national campaign manager, in a telephone interview from New York City this week.
“A lot of campaigns, I don’t think, have recognized just what a big prize Illinois is and how important it is now that it’s moved up so early.”
* Candidate rejects campaign cash criticism in 8th CD
Morris, 49, said Greenberg is “a hypocrite” for keeping Kjellander’s cash while recently demanding the 8th Congressional District’s Democratic incumbent, Melissa Bean of Barrington, return a campaign donation from the liberal MoveOn.org.
Greenberg, 36, said Kjellander hasn’t done anything wrong so there is no reason to return the $1,000 to him. In federal disclosure documents filed in September, Greenberg contends the donation came as part of a legal political funding system that should be improved.
* Foreign policy center stage in 18th-CD debate; more here
* Chicago Argus: It feels good for state primary to be relevant again
* RubberStampRoskam Blog: Roskam gets perfect report card from big business
* Voter registration deadline looms for IL residents
* Laws on wine shipping leave bad taste in N.J., elsewhere
But laws in some states still prohibit wineries from shipping directly to consumers, two years after a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling led many to believe that all states would allow vineyards to ship wine directly to consumers across the country….
“There are ways around it,” he said. “If you have relatives who live in Illinois, you can say, “Hey, hold on to it until I see you next year.’ ”
Unlike New Jersey, Illinois allows direct shipping from wineries to consumers.
A 2003 federal lawsuit working its way through the court system in New Jersey also says consumers cannot get the wine they want because of shipping laws.
* Bars finding ways to aid those affected by the ban
* Editorial: School bus law may be common sense, but it is necessary
Known as the “school bus inspection” law, the act mandates that school bus drivers do a post-trip inspection of their vehicle to ensure no child has been left behind. It specifically calls for the driver to “walk to the rear of the bus and check in and under each seat for sleeping children.”
* Program yields college saving from shopping; more here
The new Bright Start Futuretrust MasterCard contributes a 1 percent cash rebate on the amount of every purchase to each card member’s Bright Start College Savings Program account, according to a release from state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias’ office.
“This is like a frequent-flyer program geared toward families saving for college,” Giannoulias said. “Families can use the cash rewards they earn from the program as another source of college money without changing their spending habits.”
* You don’t have to be a saint to get a street sign
In many cities, a petition is all it takes for an honorary street sign. You don’t have to be a saint…
In Chicago, nearly a third of the 1,225 honorary street names are for religious figures and institutions. Four are for patriarchs, five for rabbis and nearly 300 for pastors, reverends, evangelists, bishops, fathers and monsignors.
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