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AccuWeather forecast

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’ve posted the Illinois weather map in the center column as well. Let’s use this post for local weather observations on Tuesday and musings on the weather’s impact on the big race.


Weather Forecasts | Weather Maps | Weather Radar

  18 Comments      


Late numbers

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Chew these over while you’re chewing on your nails waiting for everything to be over.

* The latest polls in the governor’s race:

* 61-39 - Polimetrix, Nov. 5 (800 LV)
* 44-37-14 - Rasmussen, Nov. 1 (500 LV)
* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)

* All recent blog posts on polls can be found here.

* The Hotline looks back at 1994 to check the generic ballot numbers:

ABC: — 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: — 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: — 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: — 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

* The most recent Fox poll has Democrats leading generic ballot by 13. Check out all the recent generic ballot polls here. Five out of the last 8 taken since 11/1 have Dems ahead by more than ten (one at 20).

* But, the Hotline has this from a trusted GOP insider.

The [late Republican] momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they haven’t been bad in the past, so I wouldn’t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents – particularly conservative I’s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).

* Democracy Corps thinks otherwise. Click here for its pdf report of 50-race polling.

This final survey of the 50 competitive Republican districts, dialed Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night, shows the Democrats with a 5-point margin in the named congressional ballot (49 to 44 percent).1 That is down 2 points from the middle of last week and up 2 points from a week ago. In fact, the Democrat has polled 49 percent in virtually every survey in October, while the Republican has been stuck, now at 44 percent. When the undecided is allocated based on leanings, the Democrats carry this Republican territory, 51 to 46 percent. With the Democrats ahead in the most vulnerable and safest tiers of seats, Democrats should expect to carry the great majority of them.

* Oy.

  21 Comments      


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Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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In which I finally get to meet Tim Nieukirk…

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I threw a party for a few pals in Chicago Saturday night. My usual pre-election thing. The highlight of the evening was a special appearance by write-in candidate Tim Nieukirk, his running mate Casey DeFauw and campaign manager Ryan Rudd.

These guys have got it going on. It didn’t take long to figure out that the stir they’ve created was no accident. A lot of planning and a whole lot of work went into their YouTube candidacy.

My favorite line of the evening was from DeFauw: “And that’s when I called Tim and said ‘Dude, we’re gonna nuke the Hamburglar.’”

The man himself, Tim Nieukirk…

Running mate Casey DeFauw, who directed all the spots…

Campaign manager Ryan Rudd…

Group hug…

See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here.

They haven’t sold much Get Nieuked gear at their Cafe Press site, and since they’ve financed their entire “campaign” out of their own pockets it would be a good thing if you could go to their site and help them out. If they’ve made you laugh out loud during a miserably negative year when there wasn’t much to laugh about, the least you could do is buy a button or something.

  27 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’ll post more later today, but I wanted to get the QOTD out of the way first.

Final election predictions. Statewide, congressional and Cook County president. Throw in any state legislative races that interest you. Please use exact percentages.

  69 Comments      


More on those robocalls *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The deceptive robocalls I told you about last week aren’t confined to Illinois.

The calls, paid for by the National Republican Campaign Committee, are running in 53 US House races, according to the Boston Globe.

The calls beging with “Hello, I’m calling with information about [Democratic candidate’s name here].” Lots of voters tend to hang up after the first sentence, but then they get another call right away from the system, leading some to believe that the Democratic candidate is bombarding them with idiotic calls.

You can listen to some examples of the robocalls done against Tammy Duckworth by clicking here.

Not everyone is blaming the innocent Democratic candidates, however.

Joan Sherrill had not decided how to vote in the 8th Congressional race until she received more than a dozen phone calls from Republican David McSweeney.

At that point, the choice was clear.

“I am voting for (Democrat) Melissa Bean,” the Palatine woman said. “The calls are just too much. They’re annoying.”

Despite all the hooplah on Democratic blogs about the outrageousness of the robocall campaign, as is almost always the case with politics, neither side is completely clean. From Dennis Byrne’s column:

It starts out as a typical poll. “Would you care to answer a few questions about the elections,” the voice on your phone asks. “Whom do you plan to vote for?”

Then it gets weird. As in: “Candidate A beats his wife; does that make you think of him more or less favorably?” Or as my daughter Kati heard when she was called: “Does the fact that Congressman Mark Kirk accepts special-interest money make you think of him more favorably or less favorably?”

So, if you are a supporter of Kirk–the Republican from the north suburban 10th Congressional District who is seeking re-election against Democrat Dan Seals–how are you supposed to answer? Oh, sure, I want my congressman to take special-interest money, so it makes me think more favorably of him.

Which is exactly how Kati, being Kati, answered. Then came four more questions of the same nature, each trying to make Kirk look like he was doing something wrong. And each time, Kati answered that she thinks more favorably of him. She even had the interviewer chuckling. But actually, it wasn’t so funny.

“It’s like Mark Kirk went out and shot 100 people,” she said. “What kind of poll is this anyway?”

The answer is: dirty, low-down and negative.

*** UPDATE *** Pioneer Press has a story up about the robocalls.

Rozanne Ronen, a Barrington resident, got the call — “Hi. I’m calling with information about Melissa Bean …”

Then she got the call again and again and 18 more times, making for a total of about 21 calls since October 24.

“They are very annoying,” Ronen said.

Pat Vockeroth, of Mount Prospect, received the calls too — “Hi. I’m calling with information about Tammy Duckworth …”

“If you only listen to the first sentence, you think they are from the Duckworth campaign,” she said.

But the calls aren’t paid for by Bean, Duckworth or even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, they are paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The media really needs to do something more on this. As other bloggers have noted, this is obviously an attempt at vote suppression.

  17 Comments      


Green was a Red

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Just when you think it couldn’t get any goofier, Rich Whitney was red-baited.

It turns out the Green Party candidate used to be a Red. The Topinka campaign and the Illinois GOP, anxious to herd Republican voters back into line, held a press conference after the Daily Herald broke the story.

Green Party governor candidate Rich Whitney of Carbondale was a national figure in the Socialist Party before resigning his post in 1993 after getting in a feud and quitting for law school.

“Naturally, I don’t trumpet the fact that I was a Socialist. I was a Socialist because in my political evolution, I’ve always cared about working people,” Whitney told the Daily Herald late Saturday night. “I’m not a Socialist now. A lot of people did things in the 60s and 70s they don’t do now.”

You can say that again.

Here’s part of the Republican press release:

“Rich Whitney has deliberately misled the voters of Illinois about his past and his 20 years as a member of the Socialist Labor Party of America,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna.

“These revelations about Whitney’s extreme views show voters now more than ever that this election is between Judy Baar Topinka and Rod Blagojevich,” said McKenna. “On Tuesday when voters step into the voting booth, they need to know if they want a change from Rod Blagojevich’s broken promises, they need to vote for Judy Baar Topinka to move this state forward.”

Whitney did a pretty good job of handling himself, considering the subject matter and Topinka played good cop to the GOP’s bad cop:

[Whitney] said his positions in the governor’s race — funding education by raising the income tax and lowering local property taxes, universal health care and cleaning up corruption — are “mainstream” positions.

“I’m the one that’s running on the mainstream,” he said. “Putting a casino in Chicago? Now that’s a kooky idea, OK?”

But even as McKenna denounced Whitney’s views, Topinka, who proposed a Chicago casino, sought to downplay the third party’s significance.

“I don’t think that’s particularly mainstream Illinois,” she said of Whitney’s past. “But, you know, again, I’d have to stress, I don’t think he’s really been a big issue here. It’s between Rod Blagojevich and me.

Discuss.

  76 Comments      


Morning shorts

Monday, Nov 6, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Pew:

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

* Daily Herald: If the analysts who track national politics for a living are to be believed, Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert has two chances of holding onto power Tuesday: slim and none.

* Obama: I regret deals with Rezko

* Bernie predicts guv wins re-election, Democratic sweep

* Door to door, face to face, race goes to wire - Duckworth, Roskam go to visit the voters

* Washington: Dems are excited about voting this time

* Stroger woos churchgoers as Peraica works the streets

* Kristen McQueary: My daughter turned 1 in October. I recently received a lovely card in the mail from Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the first lady congratulating me on her birth and informing me of my right to breastfeed in public. Thanks, but we’re on milk and solid food, guys. Makes you think there’s an election around the corner or something.

* Miller: Polls show voters never believed much Blagojevich ever said. But they do believe what they see and hear, and the Blagojevich campaign masterfully used Topinka’s own words against her. “I love you dearly,” she said to George Ryan at an emotional State Fair event in 2002. The now infamous video clip of her speech, along with the reportedly electronically altered sight of her bobbing her head up and down as Ryan spoke at the podium was replayed about a billion times on TV. The Blagojevich people have built almost their entire campaign around that clip, which makes the case for them that she was “George Ryan’s treasurer.”

* Robaugh: Who you gonna vote for?

* Comptroller debate turns ugly

* Tribune: The Committee for Retention of Judges in Cook County, a joint effort of the judges and their supporters, raised $247,900 this year to support the 71 Circuit Court and appellate judges who will appear on ballots Tuesday.

* Libeled by a campaign ad? Probably not - Few candidates sue; those who do usually lose

* Garza picks up Jackson endorsement

* For campaigns, home is where the rent is cheap, lease short

* Former President Bill Clinton… has recorded radio ads and automated phone calls asking voters to support Blagojevich on Tuesday’s election.

  33 Comments      


Topinka’s last TV ad

Sunday, Nov 5, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Christine Radogno quotes House Speaker Michael Madigan in her TV ad and Judy Baar Topinka points to Lisa Madigan’s refusal to endorse Rod Blagojevich in her last attack TV ad of the season. What a weird year.


*** UPDATE *** Everybody seems to want to talk about this story in comments instead of the ad, so here you go.

Topinka continued to fire barbs at Blagojevich, a well-known Cubs fan. She said he spends more time at the ballpark than he does at the Legislature.

“Maybe he ought to run for manager of the Cubs,” she quipped in Bloomington. “They’re a bunch of losers, too, and need some help.”

Blagojevich didn’t appreciate the comment.

“If she wants to say I’m a loser and call me names … God bless her, but leave the Cubs alone,” he said. “She ought to retract the attack on the Cubs.”

  68 Comments      


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