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Numbers
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Here’s the exit poll results for Illinois.
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Forby will likely hold on
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Democratic state Sen. Gary Forby will likely prevail in his southern Illinois race against Ron Summers, according to sources in both parties. Meanwhile, Sen. Pamela Althoff is clobbering Democrat Patrick Ouimet in the northwest suburbs. And Rep. Bill Grunloh has been whipped but good by Republican David Reis. Rep. Careen Gordon (D-Coal City) will likely hold on to her seat. Rep. Lisa Dugan (D-Bradley) is doing very well. At the moment it looks like the House Democrats will lose two (Ricca Slone and Bill Grunloh) and gain one (Frank Aguilar), for a net of minus one. The Senate Democrats lose one (Pat Welch) and pick up none, for a net of minus one.
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Welch loses
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller It appears that Sen. Pat Welch, a 22-year veteran of the Illinois Senate, has lost to Republican Gary Dahl.
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Bean wins
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller AP declares Melissa Bean the winner.
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Lots of precincts to be counted
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Thanks to a comments poster, I finally found the web page that shows how many Kane County precincts have been counted in each race. Still a lot to go in the Ruth Munson race. 23 counted and 52 not. This may not end up as close as it appears now.
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Slone going down
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Unless the Democrats have something huge up their sleeves, Rep. Ricca Slone looks like a big loser tonight. She’s been trailing Republican Aaron Schock all evening.
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Another upset?
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller GOP Rep. Ruth Munson is now trailing Mike Noland by 21 votes.
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Welch behind in LaSalle
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller With almost 58 percent of the votes counted in LaSalle County, state Sen. Patrick Welch (D-Peru) is trailing Republican Gary Dahl by almost a thousand votes. LaSalle is Welch’s home county. UPDATE: Dahl is also leading in Kankakee County.
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Munson race very close
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Another potential shocker. The House Democrats put no money behind Mike Noland in the 43rd House District, but GOP Rep. Ruth Munson is now clinging to the narrowest of leads. Stay tuned.
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Will County update
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller It’s still early, but Will County State’s Attorney Jeff Tomczak and Will County Chief Executive Joe Mikan are underperforming by several points. With 56 percent of the vote counted, George W. Bush is essentially tied 49-49 with John Kerry. But with that same 56 percent counted, the Republican Tomczak is trailing his Dem opponent 54-46, and Mikan is losing to state Sen. Larry Walsh 54-46.
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A few results
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller GOP Rep. Bob Churchill has most likely won. Rep. Beth Coulson has apparently prevailed over her Democratic opponent. Rep. Mike McAuliffe has beaten Rep. Ralph Capparelli.
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Bean to DC?
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller It looks like Democrat Melissa Bean has upset Congressman Phil Crane. The AP has the race tied, but Republicans I’ve spoken with say Bean will win. Wow.
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The ghost wins?
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller With 98.6 percent of the precincts reporting, Democrat Michelle Chavez has apparently pulled off a stunning upset over Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero), 53.2 to 46.8. There’s gotta be a very weird story behind this one. Rep. Aguilar put Chavez into the race. She didn’t do anything. She won by 1,100 votes!
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Then again
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller With 90.1 percent of the votes counted, the so-called “ghost” candidate Michelle Chavez has a 53.5 to 47.4 lead over Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero). Chavez has 8,744 votes to Aguilar’s 7.919
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This may mean nothing, but…
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Michelle Chavez, who is supposed to be a “ghost” candidate against Rep. Frank Aguilar (R-Cicero), is currently leading Aguilar, 51.5 to 48.5 with 14,000 votes counted so far.
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8pm Update
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Phil Crane is showing weakness in Cook and Lake and the Repubs are nervous. Rep. Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago) is way ahead of Rep. Ralph Capparelli (D-Chicago) at this point. The Doug Hayse/Careen Gordon House race will be a close one, say the Republicans. Expect legal challenges if the GOP loses by a hair.
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10 counties?
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller The Obama folks think they could lose 10 counties in Illinois. Most of those are in southeastern Illinois, which is hugely Christian conservative - pro-life, pro-gun, anti-Chicago. Some of those counties are in Rep. Bill Grunloh’s district, so you can see why the Democrat had such a difficult time holding onto his seat this fall.
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I’m on soon, I think
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Listen to the Illinois Radio Network here. Scratch that. Technical problems.
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Coulson update
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Dems and Repubs both agree that GOP Rep. Beth Coulson had great turnout in her base of Northfield Township and Glenview. Democrats say they had good turnout in Evanston and are doing well in getting their Wilmette “plus” voters to the polls. Both sides claiming the edge.
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6 pm exit polls
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Kos’ site is getting slammed by hundreds of thousands of visitors per hour, so I’m just gonna steal the 6 pm round of exit polling: (Just got an email claiming that the Missouri numbers may be wrong. I’m hearing from other sources that the state is tied.) Kerry Bush PA 53 46 FL 51 49 NC 48 52 OH 51 49 MO 46 54 AK 47 53 MI 51 47 NM 50 49 LA 43 56 CO 48 51 AZ 45 55 MN 54 44 WI 52 47 IA 49 49
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Promising links - UPDATED 4X
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Newsradio 780 has a page up for election returns. Nothing yet, of course, but keep that link handy. 780 also has links to local election sites in Chicagoland. UPDATE 1: The Chicagoist has links to free stuff for Chicago voters. UPDATE 2: Presidential results by state. UPDATE 3: Southern Illinoisan political stories
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Afternoon update 1
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Just got back from a loooonnnggg lunch at a popular steak joint, which is why there have been no postings for the past few hours. I’m about to head out again, but I do plan to post throughout the evening. If you’re outside Chicago, you can hear me every half hour on the Illinois Radio Network. We’ll start at 7:15 pm and end at 11:45 pm. Check that link for a station near you. Lots of complaints have poured in from Champaign County, where University of Illinois students are complaining about not being able to use their student IDs to vote. More later. This just in fromSouthern Illinoisan political reporter Jim Muir: I just got through visiting about a one-third of Franklin County’s 35 precincts and the numbers are way up every where. Most are reporting 70-75 percent turnout and some say they might go as high as 80 percent. Benton is Tier One targeted Sen. Gary Forby’s home town. My brother Devin reports “extremely long lines” at SIU’s Carbondale campus at 1:30 this afternoon. From the ICPR’s blog: Senator Pamela Althoff (R-32) reported $110K from RSSCC, and another $50K from Tom Les of Crystal Lake, whose only other reported contribution was $500 to Perry Moy earlier in October. Senator Gary Forby (D-59) got $61K from ISDF. You can check election results for state House races tonight at Tom Cross’ website More later.
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4pm Exit Polls
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Via Kos which was via Slate. NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51 Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46
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More turnout anecdotes
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Shortly before noon, almost half the registered voters in my East Loop precinct had already cast their ballots. Half. By noon. There was just a short line when I got there, but the nice ladies who work the polling place year in and year out said they got slammed this morning. Waits between 45 minutes and an hour. Down in southern Illinois, my brother Devin reports 45 minute waits in Harrisburg. An Althoff volunteer and a friend of mine says McHenry County was at a 40-50 percent level by noon, and it wasn’t just the afternoon turnout coming out early. “People who haven’t voted in years are coming out to vote,” he said. A Democratic Cook County Board member emailed a minute ago claiming that the county looks like 70 percent turnout minimum. “No soft spots. Most voters look like Dems.” In Chicago’s 47th Ward, turnout was 50 percent by 10 o’clock this morning. And a Republican just called to say that no way is turnout high in black Peoria precincts.
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Even more turnout anecdotes
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Another politico heard from: You are probably looking at a 1984(REAGAN) or 92 (Clinton) type turnout downstate–maybe the largest turnout in the last 20 years, which means upper 70’s maybe 80’s. I think both parties are getting their folks out, but the (expletive delted) swing voters are showing up too. Also, who the hell are these new voters–they are showing up too.
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Turnout update #2
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller I sent out an email to various friends and associates asking what they had heard about today’s Illinois turnout. Most of them are out working precincts, so I don’t expect a reply any time soon. But here’s what I’ve received so far. In Peoria, “some precincts were above 50% of expected turnout by 8:30 am,” claims one Dem operative. Also, long lines in black precincts there, which is good for Rep. Ricca Slone. Heavy turnout in Kankakee. A top GOP claims heavy voting in Sen. Pam Althoff’s McHenry/Lake district, but “scattered” in the Metro East. Not sure exactly what that means. A friend who is working for Althoff says McHenry County turnout is heavy. DuPage: “…ancedotal evidence of a larger than normal early morning rush generally throughout, though there is some concern that that could be Democrats coming out.” Long lines in Effingham County. Heavy turnout in Kane County. “Strongest early morning turnout I’ve ever seen,” said one area Republican. “Lines in numerous places b/f 8am!” According to one Republican in southern Illinois, turnout is heavy throughout the region and Democratic GOTV is very visible. However, this person believes turnout is, “up across the board,” meaning increases among Republicans and Democrats. Usually, Democrats believe that an increased turnout helps them. Turnout appears heavy in Chicago as well. I’ve had several e-mails so far attesting to at least one-hour waits at polling places (I knew I should have voted absentee). Here’s part of one e-mail: the line was wrapped around the outside of the building - very heavy. I waited for more than an hour to be able to vote. During the primary, I was in and out in 15 min. A particularly attuned Dem operative had this to say: Heavy everywhere….city, suburbs, downstate. I think records will be set. I’m going to vote now. I’ve lived in this apartment for more than three years and never had to wait in any kind of line at my precinct polling place. I’m kinda curious about today’s situation.
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Turnout update
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller The Southern Illinoisan reports heavy turnout in state Sen. Gary Forby’s hometown. By 8:30 a.m. today, Benton 1 precinct had 157 voters. That number is far higher than the precinct has had during a full day of voting during some past elections. One of the city’s largest precincts, Benton 1 has 1,016 registered voters. The link is screwed up so I can’t see the rest of the story.
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Tuesday morning wrap-up
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller There was a little buzz about Alan Keyes’ new TV ad yesterday. The spot attacks Barack Obama on tort reform and taxes. Democratic media consultants, however, say Springfield is the only town where the ad is being broadcast, and it ran twice on two stations last night. Meanwhile, the two US Senate candidates voted this morning. Conservative political consultant and web publisher Dan Proft has some election-day predictions. Not sure I agree with every single one, but it’s definitely worth a read, even if the Keyes operative never mentions his candidate’s name (I assume that would be a conflict of interest). Rep. Ricca Slone (D-Peoria Heights) was whacked today with a negative headline and a not-so-flattering article in the Peoria Journal Star. She probably deserved it. A flier circulated by state Rep. Ricca Slone’s campaign mischaracterizes the Journal Star’s editorial endorsement for opponent Aaron Schock, newspaper editors said Monday. The worst part for Slone is that her campaign was trying to make the case yesterday that Aaron Schock misrepresented an endorsement from a Democratic precinct committeeman who was no longer a committeeman and who is one of Schock’s tenants. Aaron Schock was the subject of a not so fabulous PJ-S story himself today. The District 150 School Board will set up a three-member, outside panel to investigate whether board president Aaron Schock violated policy in accepting public political endorsements from district employees. Nastiness in Springfield. Quick, somebody notify the Tribune editorial board. Without authorization from its own candidate, the Sangamon County Republican Party mailed a flier attacking a Sangamon County Board Democrat for brushes with the law, including a drunken driving conviction eight years ago. The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s blog did a campaign fund wrap-up of the Supreme Court race yesterday that I somehow missed. Circuit Court Judge Lloyd Karmeier (R-5th): The Daily Southtown has a story about schools closing on election day. Dozens of schools across the Southland are closed today in what appears to be a new trend — keeping kids away on Election Day. [Snip] If you’re interested in generic campaign wrap-up stories, here are links to pieces in the State Journal-Register, the Chicago Tribune, and the Waukegan News Sun. The Southern Illiniosan has several local political stories today, including some updated only on the web. Several of the links appear to be broken at the moment, but they should be fixed soon. You can find them here, here, here, here, and here. That last one is about a local fortune teller who predicts a Kerry victory.
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Prez numbers
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Pollster Rod McCulloch also did a statewide presidential poll over the weekend. Here are some of the results: The Democratic stronghold of Chicago fronts Senator Kerry to a huge lead (76-21.8%). Suburban Cook County, formerly a reliable Republican region, also would vote for Kerry, by a margin of 58.5-38.4%, according to the poll. President Bush does hold a lead in three of the other four regions of the state, including the still solidly Republican Collar Counties (55-41), Northwest Illinois (50-44), and Central Illinois (51-44). The poll shows Senator Kerry holding a slight lead in Southern Illinois (48.5-47.0%).
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Pick a county
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller A hot topic of debate among insiders these days is which, if any, counties Alan Keyes wins today. Any guesses? Pollster Rod McCulloch thinks Barack Obama could win them all. “Barack Obama will set records tomorrow,” pollster Rod McCulloch said. “He is poised to join Alan Dixon and Jesse White as the only candidate to win every one of Illinois’ 102 Counties.” I sent an email to McCulloch asking for the downstate numbers. I’ll update this later.
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New poll shows big Bean trouble
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller I was out with some Democrats last night who were positively beaming about Melissa Bean’s chances today against Congressman Phil Crane. Their polling data is old, however. The Republicans have been saying all week that their more recent polling has Bean dropping like a stone. Bean’s negatives are higher than her positives, they claim, Republicans are “coming home” finally, and the hits against Bean for not living in the district and for opposing the Bush tax cuts are working. If Rod McCulloch’s new poll is correct, then we have some proof that Bean is indeed in big trouble. If this poll is accurate and Crane has 52.8 percent just before the election, then he’s pretty much unbeatable. The only thing that could save Bean would be a tremendous, even historic, turnout. …Congressman Crane leads Ms. Bean 52.8%-44.5% district-wide, the poll said.
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Message from the Keyes campaign
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Too funny
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Just moments before the ABC-7 TV crew arrived to film the story about allegedly lax security at the James R. Thompson Center, security guards magically showed up at their posts.
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More on the security situation
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller The governor’s director of homeland security, Carl Hawkinson, e-mailed a few minutes ago: I am advised that all floors At JRTC are covered by Security JRTC is the James R. Thompson Center. But the type of security coverage at the JRTC is unnerving to some, including Secretary of State Jesse White. “We have some concerns.” said White’s spokesman Dave Druker. “No disrespect to Mr. Hawkinson, but I don’t think we have seen that,” Druker said about security covering all floors. The security guys aren’t stationed at specific spots checking identification, like they were before, and that may be creating a hole in the system. “The problem,” Druker said, “is that peple can really move around the building unnoticed, without checking in at any location.” White’s concerns were so great that he, “brought a security guard to cover our area on the 5th floor.” Other constitutional officers without their own police forces aren’t so lucky. “It is unbelievable,” said a top aide to one CO. “You go up to (the governor’s) office and there is a metal detector and guards and everything. We are completely exposed.”
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Security complaints
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller State workers arrived to the James R. Thompson Center this morning to discover that the security guards were missing. Considering the shooting at the Statehouse last month, the election is tomorrow and Osama bin Laden just cut another videotape, some people were a bit freaked out. It doesn’t help morale, either, that the governor still has guards standing in front of his office while the other offices are exposed. Here’s an explanation from within the governor’s office (I just got back from the dentist and cannot talk, so this was via e-mail. More tomorrow): “The contract with the security company ended last week and ISP (the Illinois State Police) is going to take over. For now, ISP has officers detailed to every floor and others who are roaming the building.” The coppers aren’t very visible, however, which is what seems to be upsetting so many people. The previous security guards were at their stations (and they’re still at their stations in front of the guv’s office), so people could see them. Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s press spokesperson had this to say: “At a time when most government buildings are evaluating their security and becoming more secure, it concerns us that a level of security in the Thompson Center has been removed. It is critical that the public be able to access our offices, but it is also critical that the state employees who work here feel secure. We expect and want people to be able to come into our offices, but that requires taking some common-sense steps on our part.” Translation: We’re not happy about this. UPDATE: A friend of mine who works at the Thompson Center claims she hasn’t seen any state cops today.
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Oops
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller The Alan Keyes campaign really knows how to target its limited funds. Over the weekend, Keyes placed inserts in at least two downstate papers that I know of (Peoria and Belleville) which included absentee ballot applications. The application deadline has long past.
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A bit much
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Not content with attempting to defeat Democrat Gordon Maag in the Supreme Court race, the Illinois Civil Justice League now wants him to lose his appellate justice job (as referenced in this morning’s Capitol Fax): The Illinois Civil Justice League is urging Fifth Judicial voters to vote “no” on Judge Gordon Maag’s effort to be retained to another term on the Appellate Court, in addition to voting against him in the race for the Supreme Court. Those ICJL guys are so pleasant.
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Hotline
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller From a Common Cause IL press release: Common Cause Illinois (CC/IL) in conjunction with national Common Cause has set up a toll-free “hotline” for Illinois voters to locate their polling place as well as to be able to report problems they may incur on election day while attempting to vote.
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I don’t even want to think about it
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Kevin Drum at the Washington Monthly’s blog reminds us that a lot of states were close during the presidential election four years ago, and then predicts lots of lawyers in the nation’s very near electoral future.
And he finishes with this: The only reason the bottom three states weren’t litigated was because Bush didn’t need them. This year, my guess is that everything will be in play.
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Monday morning wrap-up
Monday, Nov 1, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller The Rockford Register-Star takes a big whack at Governor Rod Blagojevich today for promoting his prescription drug import plan while the state’s public schools are left to rot: Across the state, school boards and district administrators are feeling sick. All that red ink they face in their budgets is enough to make them ill. Indeed, some districts are fighting for their lives. That’s a very good point. The governor loves to paint himself as fighting courageous battles while big problems are allowed to burn in the background. Everybody seems to run stories about Alan Keyes saying he might just stay in Illinois after the election is over (God forbid). Here’s the Sun-Times version: Republican Alan Keyes opened up with both barrels Sunday, blasting Democratic front-runner Barack Obama for taking “the wicked and evil position” on issues such as abortion and vowing to stay in Illinois to rebuild the tattered Republican Party — whether he wins or loses Tuesday. No, Alan, you are history. Scat. Here’s a bit from the Tribune’s story: “Any Roman Catholics who vote for Barack Obama are committing, in the opinion of the pope and the Holy See [Vatican City], a mortal sin,” Keyes told reporters after a Crusaders Ministries service on the South Side. “He stands for the destruction of innocent life. He stands against the respect for the male-female family. On embryonic stem-cell research, on all the key issues of conscience, he stands for the position that has been identified by the Catholic Church as objectively evil. And the State Journal-Register runs an AP story with this Obama reaction: “That’s sort of his schtick, and I don’t think it’s playing particularly well here in Illinois, and I suspect that after Tuesday he’ll be taking his show on the road.” Meanwhile, the Alton Telegraph has a story about medical malpractice legislation in the upcoming veto session. Crain’s Chicago Business has a (subscription required) story about another possible pension borrowing scheme. And the State Journal-Register has a story about payday loan regulations that could be introduced next spring.
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