Derrick Smith trial set for October of 2013
Wednesday, Nov 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* These things usually get pushed back even more, so I wouldn’t bet on this happening so, um, soon…
Newly elected state Rep. Derrick Smith could serve nearly a year in office before he has to face trial on federal bribery charges.
A federal judge today set the trial for next Oct. 21, according to Smith’s attorney. […]
The trial was set for 11 months from now by U.S. District Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman because of her schedule.
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* Ty Fahner and the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago have sent a memo to their members claiming that the pension funding problem is “unfixable”…
The magnitude of the unfunded obligations, combined with a total lack of political courage to rectify the situation, leads us to believe that our pensions systems can no longer be salvaged sufficiently to meet their current obligations
* The big business types at the Civic Committee were clearly upset with last Tuesday’s election results…
It was the Commercial Club’s hope that the November elections would bring much-needed change to our legislature and remove those from office who have been roadblocks to pension reform. Instead, it appears we will soon have even more legislators who aren’t prepared, or willing, to make the tough decisions necessary to save our state.
* Greg Hinz rounds up the Civic Committee’s reform demands…
Eliminate all cost-of-living increases for retirees or future retirees, cap pensions to a maximum salary, increase the retirement age to 67 and shift the cost of teacher pensions to local school districts over a 12-year period. The state now pays all teacher pensions except in Chicago, where city taxpayers pick up the tab. […]
Implementing the four changes the committee wants would buy the pension systems about 10 to 12 years more of viable life, he said. But the State Employee Retirement System, now projected to run out of cash in 2029, still would be insolvent by around 2040, he said. The same would apply to the State University Retirement System and the Teacher Retirement System, now projected to be unable to pay full benefits in 2030 and 2033, respectively.
Why then should lawmakers take a tough vote that won’t solve the problem?
Because if they don’t, the state will have to boost the share of its operating budget that goes toward pensions from roughly 20 percent now to 30 percent, and/or raise taxes again by a huge amount, Mr. Fahner said. That would crowd out money needed for schools, roads, public safety, health care and other needs.
But, according to Hinz, the Civic Committee refuses to release its actuarial numbers that this scenario is based on until legislative leaders disclose theirs.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** AFSCME…
Millionaire CEOs want to slash the modest retirement savings earned by middle-class public servants like teachers, police, nurses and caregivers. Regrettably, that’s not news. But it is disappointing that the Civic Committee’s letter to the governor is alarmingly fact-free: No mention that the pension debt was mostly caused by politicians who skipped required payments even as public employees always paid their share. No mention that retirees rely on an average pension of just $32,000 a year, with nearly 80% not eligible for Social Security.
But Illinois residents reject these false attacks. Last week they defeated a change to the Illinois Constitution meant to pin the blame for the pension problem on workers and retirees. And a recent statewide newspaper poll found that voters rightly fault politicians, not workers, by a margin of 51 to 2.
Like all public employees, AFSCME members are helpers and problem solvers by trade, and we remain ready to help solve the pension funding problem. But that’s going to require everyone to work together.
Along with our partners in the We Are One Illinois coalition of unions that represent public employees, we have proposed a pension funding framework that would guarantee politicians pay their share going forward, never repeating the mistakes of the past. It would protect retirees from changes while offering that active employees would make increased contributions to help pay down the debt. And crucially, it would end tax giveaways for big, profitable corporations, helping Illinois to end its practice of using public retirement systems as a credit card to fund vital public services. This last imperative explains the agenda of the CEO crowd: They want to protect their special treatment in the tax code at all costs—even if that means picking the pockets of retired teachers, fire fighters, child protection workers and other public servants.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Nov 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Edgar on the future of the GOP…
But Edgar does see a possible bright spot in the future for the party. “The governor’s race in Illinois in two years is huge for the Republican Party. If we can win the governor’s office back, then we have a viable two party system in Illinois,” he said. “But we’ve got to make sure that we have a candidate who not only appeals to Republicans but who also appeals to independents and thoughtful Democrats because you’ve got to have those. There [are] not enough Republicans in the state to get elected dog catcher. You’ve got to go out and get people who don’t view themselves as Republican. That means that you’re going to have to make sure the candidate appeals to the center.”
Edgar warned that Republicans should not look at Quinn’s low public approval ratings and assume they have the governor’s race in the bag. “I think we have an opportunity, but it’s only an opportunity — no guarantee. We’ve got to get our act together.”
* The Question: Keeping in mind that the next gubernatorial campaign will be during President Obama’s second midterm election, which is generally not favorable to the party in power, how do you rate the Republican Party’s chances in 2014? Explain.
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* My former intern Kevin Fanning fervently asked that I post this. So, here you go…
Last week I was informed that the university plans to eliminate the Civic Leadership Program. If not for this program I would never have had the opportunity to intern at Capitol Fax or had the multitude of experiences that came with it.
The Civic Leadership Program is a unique two-and-a-half-year undergraduate and graduate program for students interested in working in the public sector that culminates in an intensive internship. It is open to students of all majors, and was modeled off of the highly successful Illinois Legislative Studies Internship Program at UIS which boasts alumni such as Governor Jim Edgar, Sen. Kirk Dillard, and U.S. Judge Wayne R. Andersen.
The program has placed students in the General Assembly, Governor’s Office, Federal Reserve, Chicago Tribune, and even at the White House. The program has a budget of $150,000, a mere drop in the bucket of Illinois’ $1.5 billion budget. Approximately 90% of this budget is used to fund these internships. The time spent at these positions is invaluable, and provides a kind of education unparalleled by the classroom. While interning at Cap Fax I was able to learn how legislation actually gets passed, what role the media plays in the governing process, and how labor, lobbyists, and constituents influence their lawmakers. You simply can’t learn that sitting at a desk.
The University of Illinois’ mission statement aims to “transform lives and serve society by educating, creating knowledge and putting knowledge to work on a large scale and with excellence.” It’s time for the administration to put their money where their mouth is, and support students who are looking to make a difference in their communities, the state of Illinois, and our country. Please urge Chancellor Phyllis Wise and the Board of Trustees not to eliminate the Civic Leadership Program.
Kevin Fanning
Former Capitol Fax Intern
Civic Leadership Fellow, Class of 2009
I had a lot of very quality interns from that program. Budget cuts are what they are, but it would be a shame to see that one go. People actually got jobs when they left that program. Good jobs. It has been by any measure a rousing success.
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Mayor refuses to take the bait
Wednesday, Nov 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* According to the Sun-Times, Mayor Rahm Emanuel was asked yesterday “whether he intends to go around Gov. Pat Quinn — by cutting deals with Democratic legislative leaders — now that both houses have veto-proof Democratic majorities.” Hizzoner sounded almost conciliatory toward his chief Democratic rival…
The mayor responded that it was time for Springfield to focus on “a number of subjects — and the governor has to be a part of that.”
There were loud rumblings from within Emanuel’s circle that the mayor was gonna tee off on Quinn yesterday. Didn’t happen. That’s kind of a relief. Illinois really needs to move forward, but it can’t if the mayor is constantly undercutting the governor.
* Instead, Emanuel simply laid out his legislative agenda, which included pension reform…
“My number one issue in the legislature is getting pension reform, we must get this done in a bi-partisan way,” Quinn said Tuesday. “I really feel that all the legislators who are in the General Assembly now have more work to do before their term is up. And we want to make sure the entire term is used in order to get big things done for the public, for the people.”
A Chicago casino…
“I was advocating — as have other people for 25 years — a casino for the city of Chicago, but one in which I committed all the resources will go into school modernization, building new schools and modernizing our schools so our kids will have the best facilities to learn in,” Emanuel said while discussing his wish list for Springfield.
And gay marriage…
“Third, I will continue to advocate that we also pass marriage equality and end the discrimination on the books,” the mayor said.
“Although the state of Illinois now has civil unions, the time for marriage equality is now. The time is right, and the time is here.”
* The answer to that last question prompted questions of some openly gay House members about what they intend to do…
On Tuesday, Harris and Mell held open the possibility of trying again in January during a lame-duck session that will be the last for 35 lawmakers who either lost, are retiring or did not seek re-election.
“We’ll try when we have the votes. Hopefully, that will be sooner than later. But, we’re not gonna run a bill if we’re not gonna pass it,” Mell said.
Harris added, “We’re roll-calling folks to see where folks stand. If we have 60 votes in the House and 30 in the Senate and there’s time when the budgetary issues are resolved,” then they will push for a vote.
Discuss.
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Did Quinn just back away from the cost shift?
Wednesday, Nov 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* For about a year now, the standard mantra from Chicago Democratic leaders has been that the “cost-shift” must happen. The idea is to move billions of dollars in employer pension payments from the state down to local school districts and colleges and universities. Senate President John Cullerton came up with the idea, but Gov. Pat Quinn jumped on board shortly thereafter.
Quinn kinda sorta backed away a bit in April, but his aides say he didn’t actually do that. Since then, he’s been gung ho.
* Yesterday, Quinn was asked whether the cost-shift was still a major component of his pension reform plan. His response…
* Transcript…
“I don’t think we should let one particular segment of a reform bill hold up progress. So, uh, what we want to do is negotiate and figure out a good plan that saves taxpayers money and still maintains and rescues the pension system.”
Sounds like he’s backing away a bit to me.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** The GOP “media cocoon”
Wednesday, Nov 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A high-level Republican responds to a post here yesterday…
I think your post on the Tribune mirrors the larger debate going on nationally for Republicans and that is that we tend to exist in a media cocoon. Nationally, too much emphasis/belief on Fox news and conservative commenters.
In Illinois, perhaps too much emphasis on the Trib. We, GoPers, do a rally cheer every time we get a positive editorial, not realizing we are probably the only ones focused on it.
Plus it gives us affirmation to our messaging, “fire Madigan,” etc and we think that since it exists in the mainstream media, it must be “catching on”. Brady says Fire Madigan, Trib writes Fire Madigan, therefore the message has cracked through to the mainstream media. Not quite, not even close.
Thoughts?
*** UPDATE *** * Kristen McQueary of the Tribune editorial board tweets…
@capitolfax Uncle! Uncle! We’ve focused all on fiscal/pensions, like many edit brds. We’re not birthers. We’re social mods. FOXNews? C’mon.
All due respect, but that completely misses the point, which is that the GOP/Tribune relationship is a closed circle which doesn’t resonate much at all outside that circle. It also misses the point made above that the Republicans spend an inordinate amount of time and energy with the Tribune and get little if anything for it.
And the focus hasn’t solely been on “fiscal/pension” issues. It’s been on personalities. For the Tribune it’s constantly: Fire Madigan + ??? = Prosperity!!! They’ve never really explained how 71 loose House Democratic cannons will somehow make this state great again.
They’re overly simplistic, myopic and downright partisan, as their refusal to endorse Rep. Elaine Nekritz clearly showed. Here was a candidate with everything the Tribune wants in a legislator, except for the “D” behind her name. I don’t think you would be out of line if you posited that the “D” did her in with them.
…Adding… As pointed out yesterday, there’s also a tiring “Message from God” quality to far too many of the Tribune’s editorials about state government. They’re 100 percent right all the time and anyone who differs even slightly is a heretic. That’s very “Foxish.”
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Fun with numbers
Wednesday, Nov 14, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Southern Illinoisan reports that 147,318 presidential votes were cast in the state’s 15 “southern” counties. Those counties exclude the Metro East.
The totals from those 15 southern counties was about the same number of presidential votes cast in McHenry County alone, which is not exactly a huge population center. The southern Illinois total was about half the presidential votes cast in Will and Lake counties. It was 37 percent of the number of votes cast in DuPage County. And it was just 15 percent of the number of votes cast in suburban Cook County.
For whatever reason, some people still insist that counties matter during statewide elections. We’ve all seen it before. “Pat Quinn won only four counties!” But voters, not counties, matter in elections. Fifteen counties doesn’t mean a whole lot when very few people actually live there.
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The clown show never ends
Tuesday, Nov 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* They’re coming out of the woodwork, campers…
Sam Adam Jr., the boisterous onetime attorney to former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and R&B singer R. Kelly, told the Chicago Sun-Times Tuesday he is considering a run for U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.’s seat.
“My wife and I are thinking about it,” Adam told the Sun-Times. “I am a fighter. They may have said I wasn’t qualified, but they can’t say I don’t fight.” […]
Adam said he would have to give up his law practice. He recently set up a new firm with Victor Henderson. The two represent Cook County Commissioner William Beavers, who is to go to trial on Dec. 3. They also represented indicted – but reelected – state Rep. Derrick Smith, a West Side Democrat. Along with Ed Genson and Adam’s father, Adam represented Kelly in an underaged sex case. Kelly was acquitted. Adam gave openings and closings in the first trial against Blagojevich, which ended in a deadlocked jury on 23 of 24 counts.
“Best” Sam Adam, Jr. campaign slogan wins a night of adult beverages on me.
…Adding… Oy…
Over the last few months, Blagojevich has fought off boredom with books about former presidents, Adam said.
“He and my father [defense attorney Sam Adam Sr.] now are studying Ulysses S. Grant. He sends presidential books every month, and now they’re up to Grant,” Adam Jr. told WBBM Newsradio.
“Blago is the son my father never had. He’s the intellectual,” he added.
Sam Adam Jr. wins the contest.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Nov 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Some House members want to again remove Representative-elect Derrick Smith (D-Chicago) from the chamber…
On Thursday, Republican Rep. Jim Sacia, a former FBI agent from Pecatonica, said Smith must be removed because his alleged activities make Illinois a “national laughingstock.”
Kicking out Smith again could prove difficult because the Illinois Constitution prohibits a lawmaker from being expelled more than once over the same set of circumstances. It’s a provision akin to a double jeopardy clause, lawmakers from both parties said Thursday. If Smith is convicted in federal court, however, he would have to leave the House once more.
Sacia insisted “there has to be a way” and said he would gather the best legal minds of both parties soon to hunt for options to remove Smith again.
“There are those out there that have the attitude that, ‘If you’re not convicted … there is no need to throw someone out of the General Assembly,’” Sacia said. “Nothing could be further from the truth. He brought great discredit to the Illinois House and the General Assembly as a whole.”
Republican Rep. Jim Durkin, a former prosecutor from Western Springs who presented the first expulsion case against Smith, said the only way he sees to remove Smith a second time would be if federal prosecutors file more charges against him that allege misdeeds while he served as a lawmaker. Rep. Elaine Nekritz, the Northbrook Democrat who oversaw hearings on Smith’s legislative case, agreed with Durkin’s assessment.
Maybe they could oust him for picking his feet in Poughkeepsie.
* The Question: Do you think the General Assembly should try to find a way to remove Derrick Smith from office yet again? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
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Gay candidate elected, hardly anybody notices
Tuesday, Nov 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The most interesting thing about Yingling’s win is that his orientation wasn’t really a campaign issue…
llinois has elected it’s fourth openly gay member of the Illinois House of Representatives. Democrat Sam Yingling won the 62nd district over Republican incumbent Sandy Cole.
“This is a very important and historic win because Mr. Yingling is the first openly gay State Representative to be elected outside of Chicago,” said Anthony Martinez, Executive Director for The Civil Rights Agenda. “This shows that constituents in Illinois are no longer concerned with the sexual orientation of their representative, but the capability of the individual.”
The 32-year-old Yingling is from Grayslake. As Avon Township supervisor, Yingling was a leading proponent for property tax reform.
* Democratic Senate candidate Andy Manar handily won his conservative Downstate district race even after being whacked by Republicans for supporting civil unions…
In a pleasantly pandering mailer sent recently on behalf of state Senate candidate MIKE McELROY, the state GOP displayed a nice color picture of a husband, wife, son and daughter sitting at the dinner table, hands clasped, praying over the chicken and vegetables. Everything is perfect, except that the son doesn’t join the rest in having his eyes closed.
“Who will stand up for our Illinois values?” the flier asks.
The answer, on the opposite side, says in part, “Conservative Mike McElroy believes that marriage is a sacred union between a man and a woman” and that McElroy is “opposed to efforts to water-down the definition of marriage and supports a constitutional Amendment to protect marriage.”
Despite the over the top mailer, Manar’s Republican opponent actually supported civil unions as well, despite the district being heavily Catholic.
* And gay rights groups here see a rosy future…
Bernard Cherkasov, chief executive of the gay-rights group Equality Illinois, says the election results showed same-sex marriage winning in four states: Making same-sex marriage the law in Maine, Maryland and Washington, and preventing a constitutional ban in Minnesota. These are the first statewide victories at the ballot box for supporters of same-sex marriage.
“Here in Illinois itself, we had many candidates throughout the state who supported marriage equality, who ran in tight, competitive races and who won election, including candidates who were endorsed by our own PAC, so that was fantastic,” he said.
Democrats also will have huge majorities in the new General Assembly, but Cherkasov says when there have been advances on gay rights in Illinois and elsewhere, Republicans have joined, and he expects that to be the case on the marriage issue.
* From the Tribune editorial page…
Gov. Pat Quinn signed a bill authorizing civil unions for same-sex couples, and he has come out for marriage rights, as has this page. It’s not likely to pass in the near future, but time is on the side of the proponents.
Their cause has the advantage of resting on respect for liberty and fairness. Wherever it can also count on public support, it will be unstoppable.
* But some groups, including the Catholic Church, refuse to concede…
- The Vatican, reacting to strong gains for gay marriage in the United States and Europe, on Saturday pledged never to stop fighting attempts to “erase” the privileged role of heterosexual marriage, which it called it “an achievement of civilization”.
For the second consecutive day, Vatican media weighed in with forceful editorials restating the Roman Catholic Church’s unequivocal opposition.
“It is clear that in Western countries there is a widespread tendency to modify the classic vision of marriage between a man and woman, or rather to try to give it up, erasing its specific and privileged legal recognition compared to other forms of union,” Father Federico Lombardi, said in a tough editorial on Vatican Radio.
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Radogno tries to hold on
Tuesday, Nov 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Subscribers know more about this development…
State Sen. Kyle McCarter (R-Lebanon) confirmed his interest in ousting Radogno from her leadership post after she failed to stave off a whopping five-seat loss for Republicans in the state Senate.
“If we were a competitive college sports team with a record like this, somebody would have been fired already,” McCarter told the Chicago Sun-Times.
McCarter’s criticism came the same day that a conservative political action committee, Family PAC, circulated a letter to each Republican state senator, urging Radogno’s ouster. […]
Radogno, whose caucus will drop in size from 24 to 19 members in January, defended her backing of all Republican Senate campaigns and dismissed Caprio as an “outlier” in a party that she said must be recalibrated after Tuesday’s outcome. She also took direct aim at McCarter.
“I’m not sure what we need now is an in-your-face, confrontational, white, downstate male. I love our downstate guys. I have a great relationship with them, and I’m not playing a gender card,” she told the Chicago Sun-Times.
“What I’m saying, as a practical matter, is that we need to change our image. Fairly or not, we’re perceived — and these aren’t my words, I’ve read it reported this way — as being the party of angry white men, and that’s not true by the way. The fact of the matter is perception is reality, and we need to deal with it,” she said. […]
[McCarter] also took issue with Radogno’s implication that the GOP would be best suited with a suburban woman, since Republicans across the board didn’t badly with women voters, particularly in the suburbs.
“If it’s all about doing better with women, having a woman in charge didn’t fix things Tuesday,” he said.
Ouch.
* Radogno’s team has attempted to put the losses into context by using data from past remap election results…
‘82 - Dem map — SGOP lost 3
‘92 - GOP map — SDems lost 4
‘02 - Dem map — SGOP lost 6
‘12 - Dem map - SGOP lost 5
That’s very true. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the last Democratic map was pretty darned good, so the SDems started this campaign cycle with 35 seats. They now have 40, which is unprecedented in modern times.
* Meanwhile, the SJ-R’s editorial board points out the obvious…
The financial titans of Chicago’s Loop; right-wing think tanks and advocacy groups; the state’s largest newspaper and Republicans, whose campaign message was “Fire (House Speaker Michael) Madigan,” took aim. They ripped the Democrats for passing an income tax increase in 2011 aimed at stabilizing the state’s finances and for failing to restructure the state’s pension systems to deal with $83 billion of debt.
The state’s voters brushed aside those arguments, giving Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, larger majorities than they already had.
Voters didn’t just snub the Republicans, they also turned their noses up at the Tribune. From a pal…
By my count, in the seven most competitive races for the Illinois Senate, only one Chicago Tribune-endorsed candidate won (Kotowski.) Most of these races occurred in areas where the Tribune used to be pretty influential.
Mother Trib did a little better in the Illinois House, but not much better. In what looks to me like the 17 most competitive races, Tribune-endorsed candidates won only six of the 17 contests. Also interesting that the day before the election they did special reminder endorsements of Tyson, Sweeney, Fee, Saviano, Sente, and Friedman — only Sente won.
I guess we shouldn’t pick on the Trib, newspaper endorsements have lost their influence everywhere. It’s just that the Trib editorial board always seems so sure of itself…never allowing for the possibility they might be a little bit wrong about something. That makes it kinda fun when they are wrong. I also felt like they lost a lot of credibility when they didn’t endorse Elaine Nekritz.
After what the Tribune did to Nekritz, I don’t know why anyone would ever again try to cultivate that editorial board. She was the lone Democratic vote against Madigan’s rules, is negotiating pension reforms and has always been independent-minded. She’s pretty much the poster child of the suburban Tribune Democrat, yet the Trib endorsed her Republican opponent.
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Probably not
Tuesday, Nov 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This Reuters story is basically just a rewrite of some Illinois Policy Institute press releases…
By Karen Pierog
CHICAGO, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Illinois Democratic lawmakers, facing the state’s own version of the fiscal cliff, are expected to use their newly won veto-proof majority in the legislature to solve the state’s impending financial crisis with permanently higher tax rates on personal income and corporations. […]
“The Democrats can install any agenda they want. They don’t need any Republican votes. My recommendation to Republicans is let them go forward and see if it works,” said John Tillman, chief executive of the Illinois Policy Institute, a nonpartisan public policy research group. […]
Predictions are that Madigan, who has been Speaker for 28 of the last 30 years, will pounce on the opportunity to make permanent temporary income tax rate increases approved in January 2011.
The Policy Institute and Senate GOP Leader Christine Radogno were warning about a potential lame duck vote on the income tax hike for weeks before the election. I took a look at their warnings a while ago and found it to be without merit, partly because Senate President John Cullerton was completely opposed to the idea. The Sun-Times followed up…
Last week, Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) sounded the alarm in an online interview with the Illinois Policy Institute, a conservative think-tank.
Cullerton, however, told the Chicago Sun-Times that it’s an issue best left for candidates in the 2014 governor’s race to sort out rather than ramming it through later this month, early next month or in January. On Thursday, House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) sent a memo encouraging lawmakers to be prepared for a six-day session in January, when passing legislation becomes easier.
“My thought would be timing,” Cullerton said. “We’d have an election for governor, and that would be the best time to have a debate about what the proposal ought to be.
“I’d think the Republican running for governor and Gov. Quinn, if he’s running, would have a proposal for what they want to do: Keep it at 3.75 percent, do other changes or make it higher than that.
“I just think it would be the best time,” he said. “We’d have an election.”
* Related…
* House eyes six-day January session
* Finke: Veto proof? Maybe, maybe not: So the threat of an override is real and could affect the relationship between the legislature and Quinn. But an override isn’t necessarily a sure thing, especially in the House where all the Democrats would have to be in agreement if it came down to a party-line vote. And despite House Speaker Michael Madigan’s reputation, the Democrats there aren’t a monolithic bunch.
* Despite big gains, Democrats still want GOP help on pension revamp
* Senate chief says compromise with Republicans still his goal
* Lame duck legislature could hatch gambling, pension deals
* Erickson: Not enough room for all the Democrats
* Editorial: Fix for state’s problems rests with Democrats
* Editorial: Not much faith in fiscal solutions
* Editorial: Backyard brawls - The war to keep spending money Illinois doesn’t have
* Editorial: Keep your promise
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Latinos are now a major force in Illinois
Tuesday, Nov 13, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
In 1992, Latinos made up about 8 percent of Illinois’ population, but only 1 percent of that year’s total voter pool was Latino. The trend continued for years. Latinos just didn’t vote.
Twenty years later, things have changed in a big way. According to exit polling, 12 percent of Illinois voters last week were Latinos, which is pretty close to their percentage (16 percent) of Illinois’ overall population.
That high participation contributed to many of last week’s electoral surprises.
Twenty years ago, 85 percent of Illinois voters were white and 12 percent were black, while the other 3 percent consisted of Latinos, Asian-Americans and others. Last week, whites made up 70 percent of the state’s voters, blacks were 14 percent and Asian-Americans 2 percent.
In 2004, 2006 and 2010, exit polls showed that 8 percent of voters were Latino, and they accounted for 6 percent in 2008. A persistent, years-long push by immigration rights groups to register Latinos to vote and get them to the polls definitely had an impact here this year, along with a decidedly hostile national Republican position on immigrant rights.
The state Democratic Party focused hard on getting Latinos to the polls. Only about 40 percent of Latinos live in Chicago, with the vast majority in the suburbs and downstate. So concentrating on those voters was a way of pumping up the total Democratic vote, and it appeared to work quite effectively.
Exit polling showed that 81 percent of Illinois Latinos voted for President Obama on Tuesday. That trend presumably resonated all the way down the ticket.
DuPage County is now almost 14 percent Latino, which could be why the Democratic Party did so well there this year. Lake County is 20 percent Latino, Will County 16 percent and Kane County 31 percent.
Rep. Skip Saviano (R-Elmwood Park) went into Election Day hoping to win his new district’s DuPage County precincts by 1,500 votes to overcome an expected 1,200-vote deficit on the Cook County side. He ended up doing slightly better than that in Cook, losing by 1,100 votes, but he lost DuPage by 26 votes. Despite an endorsement by U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-4th), the Latino vote appears to have done in Saviano.
Democrat Mike Smiddy’s surprise win over freshman Rep. Rich Morthland (R-Cordova) is partially due to the Latino vote, Democrats say. The district’s Latino voting-age population is about 7 percent, and a heavy Latino turnout in the Sterling/Rock Falls area reportedly helped Smiddy over the top.
Smiddy also worked very hard for a year, raised a lot of money from labor unions, particularly AFSCME, and Morthland was injured and unable to walk precincts. Smiddy won with 52 percent of the vote, without any real help from the House Democrats.
The 36th Senate District has a voting-age population that’s about 9 percent Latino, and that undoubtedly helped gin up the numbers for Sen. Mike Jacobs (D-East Moline). The Senate Democrats went into Election Day hoping to squeak out a win for Jacobs. Instead, he breezed to victory with 55 percent of the vote.
One explanation for Jacobs’ surprisingly large margin is that pollsters didn’t accurately measure the potential Latino impact because Latinos voted in far higher numbers this year than ever before. That will change, as will the perception of Latinos as non-voters. This year marks a definite turning point in Latino political power in Illinois.
The 62nd House District, where Democrat Sam Yingling upset Rep. Sandy Cole (R-Grayslake) has a Latino voting-age population of 22 percent. Yingling defeated Cole by 10 percentage points in a district drawn to elect a Republican. Yingling worked very hard for months,and Cole simply didn’t, but the Latino vote was obviously crucial.
The Kankakee-area’s 79th House District is 7 percent Latino. Democrat Kate Cloonen won the district despite being drastically outspent by the GOP and it being widely perceived as a Republican district. Hard work, message discipline and a favorable black and Latino vote enabled Cloonen to win.
If the Republican Party wants to again be relevant in Illinois, it had better stop dismissing Latino concerns. The GOP simply cannot win many elections, especially for statewide office, in this state if Latinos turn out in large numbers and vote 81 percent Democratic.
* An example of how surprised even the Democrats were last week…
John Cullerton said internal Senate Democratic polling showed Tom Cullerton trailing [GOP Sen. Carole Pankau] even up to Election Day, though within the margin of error, meaning there was a chance for victory.
“I’m the one who told Tom he won,” John Cullerton said. “He was just stunned. He didn’t know he was gonna win. Our polls had him behind, but close.”
That Senate district has a Latino voting age population of 13.6 percent.
* So if Latinos continue voting in large numbers, and if they continue voting for Democrats, this may not pan out…
The narrative about the election in Illinois so far has been about the Democrats’ dominance of hotly contested races for both Congress and Statehouse.
But in the suburbs, Republicans can look to 2014 with hope. Because the suburbs are Illinois’ version of swing territory, and seats have tended to change hands often between Republicans and Democrats.
It seems every cycle, Democrats are either gaining seats in the suburbs or ceding ground.
Also, no targeted suburban Senate Democratic members will be up for reelection in 2014. None.
* Related…
* Mark Brown: Young voters hold a lot of sway
* Latino, Immigrant Voter Registration Drive Pays Off As Turnout Fuels Immigration Reform Efforts
* Latino voters’ message to both parties: make immigration reform a priority
* Latino vote tops 2008, goes heavily for Dems
* Obama’s Big Hispanic Voter Win In Presidential Election Worries Republicans
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*** UPDATE *** We may be getting close to closure…
Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. has left the Mayo Clinic, where he has been receiving treatment for bi-polar depression.
Mayo Clinic spokesman Nick Hanson confirmed to NBC Chicago that Jackson Jr. was no longer a patient at the Rochester, Minnesota hospital.
Jackson Jr. spokesman Frank Watkins, who is located in Washington D.C., said he wasn’t aware the congressman had left the clinic.
“I know nothing,” Watkins said. “I was informed by the Trib.” The Chicago Tribune reported that Jackson Jr. had left the clinic at around 11:00 a.m.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* This is why you never, ever want the feds on your tail…
The Justice Department probe into Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (Ill.) over alleged misuse of campaign funds has broadened to include his wife, Chicago Alderwoman Sandi Jackson, The Wall Street Journal reports.
In a report Tuesday, the Journal said prosecutors are investigating whether Sandi Jackson was complicit in the alleged use of campaign money to redecorate the family’s Washington, D.C., home.
Prosecutors have not decided whether they will press criminal charges against Sandi Jackson, and sources in the report suggested that federal lawyers are using the threat of charges to pressure Jesse Jackson to accept a plea deal.
Unlike the mob, the feds will target your family. They’ll go after your friends. They’ll do whatever it takes to convince you to play ball.
* And the pressure appears to be working…
Just days after winning a handy reelection to his Chicago-area district, 17-year Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., D-Ill., has entered negotiations for a plea deal that would include his resignation from Congress and likely jail time.
Jackson, Jr., the son of civil rights activist Rev. Jesse Jackson, Sr., and husband to Chicago Alderman Sandi Jackson, has not yet pleaded guilty to alleged misuse of campaign funds to decorate his house and purchase a $40,000 Rolex watch for a female friend. But CBS Chicago reports the congressman’s lawyer, white-collar criminal defense attorney Dan Webb, is negotiating with the federal government a plea bargain that will likely be reached by year’s end.
The tentative deal includes Jackson, Jr.’s resignation from Congress for health reasons, a “guilty” plea involving misuse of campaign funds, and repayment of any contributions that were converted to personal use. At least some jail time is expected. Jackson, Jr.’s pension, which would pay out between $65,000 and $80,000 a year when he turns 62, is also part of the talks.
* Related…
* Cellini gives up bid to remain free, will go to prison Jan. 4: Defense attorney Thomas Kirsch II told The Associated Press that Cellini also is considering forgoing any appeal, even though Cellini believes he would prevail, Kirsch said. The appeals process would take longer than Cellini’s sentence, he said, and Cellini and his family want to put the legal saga behind them as quickly as possible.
* Kadner: Jesse Jackson Jr.’s saga of failure and betrayal
* Chicago mayor: Jackson should tell his intentions
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