A new report shows 46.2 percent of single-family homeowners in the Chicago metropolitan area in the third quarter had negative equity, meaning homeowners owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. That represents an increase from 32.9 percent a year earlier, according to the report from Zillow Inc.
It also is up from 42.2 percent in the second quarter.
The report showed home values dropped 9 percent from the third quarter of 2010 and dipped 1.1 percent from the second quarter.
Home values have fallen 37.4 percent since their peak in July 2006 and are now back to the level they were in December 2000, according to Zillow.
* The Question: Is your house currently worth less than what you owe on your mortgage? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
*** UPDATE *** If you’re watching the veto session live blog, you already know that the newly revised gaming bill passed the House Executive Committee 8-2.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* As I write this, the House Executive Committee is debating the newly revised gaming expansion bill. Watch the proceedings at our live blog. The Tribune has lots of details on the new bill…
The new Chicago casino would keep its 4,000 gambling positions but wouldn’t be allowed to station them at the city’s airports. Slot machines would no longer be allowed on the state fairgrounds in Springfield. Quinn didn’t want the gambling machines there because the fair is a family destination.
Along with Chicago, new casinos still would be authorized for Rockford, Danville, the south suburbs and Park City in Lake County. Quinn specifically had objected to designating Park City as a location for a new casino when he outlined his framework for what would be a more acceptable gambling expansion plan. Quinn preferred to designate Lake County as a whole instead.
Overall, there would be 7,000 fewer authorized gambling positions than in the plan lawmakers approved in late May, which Quinn threatened to veto.
The current 10 riverboat operators would get 4,000 fewer positions under the new plan — being allowed to expand from 1,200 spots to only 1,600 instead of the 2,000 originally promised.
The four new casinos outside Chicago would get 1,600 fewer positions total — each being allowed 1,600 positions to start instead of the 2,000 previously promised. The rest would be cut from the Quad City Downs track and the fairgrounds.
Gov. Pat Quinn, of course, opposes slots at tracks. But a bill without those slots wouldn’t pass. Quinn also wanted a campaign contribution ban from casino owners, but that was dropped as well. Quinn’s campaign received hundreds of thousands of dollars last year from the Pritzker family, which owns part of a casino, and from the children of the Des Plaines casino owner.
* In other news, Illinois Statehouse News has a good report on yesterday’s hearing on Speaker Madigan’s proposal to set a cap on wages and benefits that can be negotiated by the state’s public employees unions…
In the fight for control over Illinois’ purse strings, House Speaker Mike Madigan says the Legislature, not Gov. Pat Quinn, decides how to spend the taxpayer’s money and balance the Illinois budget.
“I don’t necessarily subscribe to the view that what the executive (branch) does binds the legislative (branch),” the Democrat from Chicago said at a statehouse hearing Monday here.
The hearing allowed Madigan to further showcase his legislative resolution that would allow the Legislature to indicate how much the state can spend on employee pay during upcoming contract negotiations between Quinn and the state’s largest public-sector union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, or AFSCME.The contract expires in June.
“One of our responsibilities, under the constitution, is to adopt a balanced budget. Which means, under the constitution, we are expected to be involved in budget making,” Madigan said. “We do not want to replace the governor in negotiations.”
Henry Bayer, executive director for AFSCME Council 31, said Monday that the Legislature gave Quinn the authority that Madigan wants to change.
“The Legislature passed the current collective bargaining (legislation), and gave to the governor the power to negotiate collective bargaining agreements,” said Bayer. “We’ve been doing that … since 1984.
But Madigan said Illinois is broke and the Legislature needs to have input in the negotiations.
“We do not want to replace the governor in negotiations,” Madigan said. “It’s about getting a handle on costs. It’s not about repealing collective bargaining.”
The resolution says the state “will appropriate no more than X% for wage increases” for union contracts. The “X” percentage has yet to be worked out.
Bayer said the legislature gave the governor authority to negotiate contracts for employees under his jurisdiction. Putting a limit on raises before negotiations start “does have an impact on collective bargaining very clearly.” he said. Moreover, union members will look at the number as the minimum the state can afford, he said.
“I’m not sure this will do what you want to accomplish,” Bayer said.
* Roundup…
* Big issues undecided as end of Ill. session nears: Advocates for the mentally ill are pushing lawmakers to restore $30 million that they say was mistakenly cut from their funds. They also want to block Quinn’s plan to close three state mental centers, arguing that the governor doesn’t have a clear plan for treating the people now living in those centers. The National Alliance on Mental Illness says Illinois has cut mental health funds by $187 million since 2009, or nearly 32 percent. Only three other states have cut a bigger share.
* Quinn paints bleak picture for Tinley Park Mental Health Center
According to Tom Johnson at the Taxpayers’ Federation of Illinois, those [tax breaks] easily would cost the state treasury $400 million or so a year when fully implemented.
Mr. Johnson’s numbers in part come from an analysis of the bill prepared by House Democratic staff, as first reported by Rich Miller at Capital Fax.
Other knowledgeable sources say the ultimate cost is hundreds of millions of dollars a year higher. [Emphasis added]
Sheesh.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* I absolutely hate it when this happens, but I made a mistake in this morning’s Capitol Fax. When calculating the out-year cost of the tax cut package, I missed some crucial language in a House Democratic analysis…
Bonus Depreciation: Decouple from the federal government on the latest bonus depreciation for the current tax year and beyond. This is expected to generate $571 million in FY 2012… The value of this decoupling is reduced to $354 million in FY 2013 and continues to decline until the earlier state benefit is recovered by taxpayers.
So, my calculation that the deficit created by this plan next fiscal year is about $110 million (due to phase-ins of tax cuts and other tax break increases) is way off. The hit to next fiscal year’s budget will actually be about $317 million. And then the hole gets bigger year after year.
“It will be an interesting week,” said Duffy. “I am going to be down in Springfield, obviously, all week. Hopefully the legislature understands the value that the CME Group brings not only to Chicago but to the state of Illinois and the rest of the country.” […]
CME’s Duffy will watch what happens and says the General Assembly’s action or lack of same will trigger a decision by his board.
“It will only trigger something that we’ve been looking at all along, which is what’s in the best interest of our shareholders∧ I’ve said that from day one,” said Duffy.
Several states, including Indiana, reportedly have offered CME Group tax incentives to relocate.
Duffy says his company has complained about taxes for many years but apparently the corporate tax increase earlier this year now makes it cost effective to move elsewhere for a better deal.
Community Unit School District 300 will be back in Springfield today when the Illinois General Assembly’s veto session resumes, this time “in the red” — literally, wearing red T-shirts — as the district’s budget will be “if we’re not successful this week.” […]
The Carpentersville-area school district for months has opposed an amendment to another bill — Senate Bill 540 — that would extend tax breaks another 15 years for the economic development area surrounding Sears corporate headquarters in Hoffman Estates. […]
District 300 said in a written statement Monday evening it was pleased the amendment to Senate Bill 397 would penalize Sears if it left Illinois before 2018.
But district officials plan to push lawmakers to rewrite this legislation, too. It does not require an audit or joint review committee over the EDA. It also would allow the village of Hoffman Estates to continue collecting money from the area if Sears left and use that money to operate the Sears Centre Arena, according to the district.
“The bill filed today is horribly wasteful in reaching its goal of keeping Sears here, and it might as well be renamed the ‘Hoffman Estates EDA’ bill,” Superintendent Michael Bregy said in a written statement.
The Sears committee hearing has been postponed while legislators attempt to work out more details, according to the Daily Herald.
* And check out how the Tribune straddled the tax cut issue in today’s editorial…
Wealthy traders seeking an advantage in the corridors of power typically elicit zero sympathy. Still, CME raised a valid point. At top exchanges around the world, the open-outcry trading floors with their shouting and arm-waving have mostly gone the way of the dinosaur. The vast majority of trades occur via computer screen. As a result, it doesn’t make sense to tax CME and its smaller kin, CBOE Holdings, as if all their trades still took place in the physical trading pits of downtown Chicago. Most trades originate out of state or even out of the country, so some adjustment to the tax scheme for the city’s exchanges makes sense.
Look out below.
Once word trickled out that CME and CBOE might be receiving a significant tax cut, the wish list grew. Gov. Quinn, channeling his inner populist, proposed increasing the earned-income tax credit for low- and middle-income families. He also reportedly wants to index personal income-tax exemptions so they rise with inflation.
The GOP, meantime, wants a cut in the estate tax and favorable tax treatment of operating losses. Illinois supposedly would pay for the cuts by introducing a longer schedule for depreciation of asset purchases. That proposal may or may not make up for the lost revenue from the tax cuts being talked about, however.
Sears, which wants financial inducements to keep its headquarters in Illinois, also might profit from this package.
We’ve all seen this before: legislative leaders rushing a complicated package that deserves more careful consideration than it’s likely to get in a veto session. Which leaves us wondering:
However good this tax package, will Illinois be able to afford it? Or will it just lead to more unpaid bills and more taxpayer debt?
Tuesday, Nov 8, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
Three different times, the Illinois legislature has rejected Tenaska’s proposed Taylorville Energy Center, which would have us pay up to SEVEN TIMES today’s market price for electricity for a power plant we don’t need. After three strikes, legislators should say, “You’re Outta Here!” to the Taylorville Energy Center.
Here’s why:
• According to Tenaska’s own report, this project would cost Illinois families, businesses, and government agencies at least $286 million per year.
• Illinois job creators would bear the risk and absorb most of the costs from the Taylorville Energy Center. This project would be costly even if built on schedule and on budget, but consider that a similar coal-gasification project in Indiana has racked up a full $1 billion in cost overruns! Predictably, the plant’s owners are passing most of the costs on to Indiana consumers.
• Tenaska wants Illinois consumers to pay even if the Taylorville Energy Center never produces more than a single megawatt of power.
• Power from the Taylorville Energy Center would be one costly drop in a big bucket. The plant’s 544 megawatts would add only two-tenths of one percent to the overall amount of power generation capacity available to Illinois, at a price tag of at least $8.6 billion.
* House Republican Leader Tom Cross’ pension reform bill will get a hearing today, according to Speaker Madigan’s spokesman…
The Cross bill “will come before committe and they’ll do what they do,” [Steve Brown] told me a bit ago. And the speaker’s position? The bill is “under review,” with “some questions” about its fiscal impact that may or may not get resolved in committee on Tuesday.
The bill will be heard today at the Stratton Building’s D-1 at 2:30.
Illinois leaders also are groping for some way to cut government pension costs, but they’re hampered by language in the Illinois Constitution that bars reducing retirement benefits for current employees.
To get around that, House Minority Leader Tom Cross, R-Oswego, has come up with legislation to create three different “tiers” of pension benefits and costs. It would let state employees keep their current level of benefits but would require them to contribute far more money to the retirement system. In other words, it wouldn’t technically reduce their benefits but it would give them a strong incentive to switch to one of the new tiers with fewer benefits.
One of the other tiers is a scaled-down version of the current pension system. It will cost the employee less money but offer smaller payments after retirement. The other tier is a 401k-style “defined contribution” plan, where the state and the employee both contribute money that is invested until the worker retires.
Option one is to keep their current benefits, but pay more — a lot more. For instance, according to a fact sheet issued by Mr. Cross’ office, workers in the State Employees Retirement System who also get Social Security would have to pay 9.29% of salary, more than twice today’s 4%.
The hike in Chicago and Cook County pension contributions is somewhat less, but still considerable. For instance, workers in the main Chicago municipal plan would have to pay 12.75% of salary every year, up from 8.5% now.
Option two is to accept lesser benefits, but pay less for them than in option one.
Option three is to give up a traditional defined-benefit pension plan and convert to a 401(k)-style self-managed pension.
We expect lawmakers this week to clamp down on some of those sweeteners for union officials — egregious deals exposed in recent weeks by Tribune reporters. But don’t let anyone tell you that a remedy in this area will save a pension system so grievously in debt. It won’t. Only a cut to the benefits public employees earn in future years will begin to fix a debacle Made in Springfield.
Or lawmakers could again hide from the bigger problem here and let taxpayers’ unfunded obligations keep growing until the spring legislative session. What’s a few more billions?
“We’re broke, as everyone knows,” said Ty Fahner, a former Illinois attorney general and president of the Civic Committee, which focuses on economic growth.
His group has been pushing legislation that would make state workers, teachers and others pay more toward their retirements. Because the state is so far behind paying its share to their retirement accounts, there is little money left over. The debt grows each year, taking a bigger share of the state budget. […]
But lawmakers seem to be gearing up for their final week of session without addressing the single biggest budget pressure facing taxpayers.
“This all comes from basic cowardice, and I mean that word sincerely,” said Fahner who believes lawmakers are more focused on their re-eletion campaigns than on the state’s budget crisis. Goups that oppose the bill are powerful. Unionized teachers and state workers are hounding lawmakers with phone calls and e-mail. And union leaders are determined to run candidates against incumbents who support the idea of making their members pay more.
Union leaders have mounted strong opposition to Senate Bill 512, which would require current state workers to pay more toward their retirements. The proposal was held over from the spring session because legislative leaders lacked the votes to pass it.
Organized labor also reacted furiously to the new proposal from House Republican Leader Tom Cross of Oswego to give the mayor and the Cook County board president power to appoint the majority of employee pension board trustees.
At a news conference last month, Emanuel had acknowledged meeting with Cross about the legislation but declined to say whether he supported it.
On Monday, Cross spokeswoman Sara Wojcicki Jimenez said he was “still waiting on some feedback from Mayor Emanuel’s office” and did not know if Cross would attempt to promote the bill in the veto session.
* It could be a long day. Live House audio/video is here. Live Senate audio/video is here. BlackBerry users click here. iPad and iPhone users remember to use the “two-finger” scrolling method…
Mike Brockway’s “The Expired Meter” website has the results of a trial run of seven red light cameras temporarily enabled to detect speeders in April and May and he said the study shows those cameras alone would have generated more than $100 million in speeding ticket revenue.
That study found speeders were 20, 30, even 60 times more common than red light runners, who are already contributing millions to city coffers.
And remember, the test covered just a handful of cameras.
Just seven speed cams would bring in $100 million a year? Wow. That’s about $40 million more than the city’s entire redlight camera system generates every year.
The current version of the speed enforcement bill would allow Chicago to have speed camera enforcement five school days a week from 6 AM until 10 PM–16 hours a day–not the paltry nine hours during weekdays the study covered. Safety zones around park districts would operate seven days a week starting an hour before the park opens and an hour after it closes.
Extrapolating the numbers provided in CDOT’s study for a school safety zone, based on 48 violations per hour per approach, each camera would produce 768 violations a day or 16,512 citations and potential fines of $1.65 million for the first month. All seven cameras would produce an estimated 115,584 speeding citations or $11.5 million in potential fines for that month
Projecting future revenues is slightly more challenging, as estimates must take into consideration the effect of camera enforcement on driver behavior. The assumption is motorists would alter behavior with the knowledge that enforcement is occurring. Of course, after a few $100 tickets in the mail, people will learn to slow down and violations will decrease over time, but never completely disappear.
But using CDOT’s red light camera violations in 2010 as a model, monthly totals for red light running can be seen to be dropping by an average of 5.3% per month for the last seven months of that year after CDOT stopped adding more cameras to the program.
Applying a regression to the mean to the projected initial numbers, the first twelve months of enforcement where fines would be issued, from just these seven locations would still produce 990,822 speed violations or nearly $100 million in fines–a dollar amount that far exceeds the total revenue generated by the all 382 red light cameras every year.
In other words, projected violations were discounted by 5.3% every month, acknowledging driver behavior will change and violations will fall over time.
Winning approval for cameras to capture and fine drivers who break the speed limits on Chicago’s streets has zoomed to the top of Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s agenda for the last week of the state legislature’s fall veto session.
Even after enjoying a string of successes in the spring legislative session, Emanuel’s lobbyists still have much that they want to achieve in Springfield by the end of the veto session on Thursday. In addition to the anti-speeding bill, the mayor continued pushing for measures to bring a casino to Chicago and avert the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s threatened move out of state. […]
“I wouldn’t say it has been quite as intensive as the lobbying on school reform, because that was the main issue of his mayoral campaign, but it’s pretty clear that it’s important to them to get the votes for increased speeding enforcement,” said Zalewski, whose father is the 23rd Ward alderman and was appointed chairman of the City Council’s Aviation Committee by Emanuel.
* The mayor held a press conference yesterday with legislators to push the bill…
Surrounded by 15 state representatives, Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Monday publicly urged the House to approve a bill to retrofit red-light cameras with speed sensors at intersections near schools and parks.
“The victims here are the children, not those who are speeding,” Emanuel said during a press conference at Chicago’s Office of Emergency Management and Communications.
The mayor pointed to the deaths of 6-year-old Diamond Robinson and a CICS Wrightwood 8th grader, both struck by cars, as proof the city needs more speed enforcement to protect Chicago kids.
As the House vote on the plan nears, Emanuel has stepped up arm twisting. State Reps. Mary Flowers and LaShawn Ford, both Chicago Democrats, said the mayor approached them for support.
Ford said an Emanuel aide later asked him to stand with the mayor Monday. “I didn’t even get the call to say, ‘Are you supporting it?’” said Ford, who didn’t attend.
The crash that killed Diamond occurred on a Saturday night as she crossed 70th Street and Loomis Boulevard near Altgeld Elementary School. The driver was ticketed for “failure to reduce speed to avoid a pedestrian in the roadway.”
The location of the second crash, at 79th and California, would not fall within a safety zone under the legislation sought by the mayor. The 13-year-old boy struck and injured there stepped into the path of an oncoming car, police said. No citation was issued.
According to a study done by CDOT of the first 109 red light cameras, there were 23 pedestrian deaths at those intersections before the [red light cameras] were in place. Two years after each intersection had cameras installed, aggregate pedestrian deaths at those locations dipped to six.
Impressive.
* The Senate has already passed the speed cam bill, which is sponsored by Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan. The House Executive Committee is taking up the legislation at 10 o’clock this morning in Room 114. You can listen or watch the committee hearing by clicking here.
Tuesday, Nov 8, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
A group of wealthy Chicago businesspeople has been masquerading as economic experts under an organization called “Illinois is Broke,” pinning the blame for the state’s budget problems on the modest pensions earned by teachers, nurses and other public employees.
It’s ironic on two levels.
First, Senate Bill 512–the pension legislation put forth by “Illinois is Broke”–would make Illinois even more broke.
Buck Consultants, one of the world’s leading actuarial firms – true pension experts –analyzed the legislation, concluding it would actually cost taxpayers an additional $34 billion. (Read here for more details.)
The State Journal-Register raised serous questions about the cost of the legislation yesterday, which would be a disaster for Illinois taxpayers.
Second, the premise that modest pensions earned by public employees caused the state’s budget problems is flat out wrong. Whether they are police or fire fighters, teachers or caregivers, these working men and women have contributed to their pensions from every paycheck. It’s the politicians who failed to make their payments.
Illinois is Broke: Intentionally deceitful? Or just painfully incompetent? Either way, their reckless legislation should not be taken seriously.
Monday, Nov 7, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
A group of wealthy Chicago businesspeople has been masquerading as economic experts under an organization called “Illinois is Broke,” pinning the blame for the state’s budget problems on the modest pensions earned by teachers, nurses and other public employees.
It’s ironic on two levels.
First, Senate Bill 512–the pension legislation put forth by “Illinois is Broke”–would make Illinois even more broke.
Buck Consultants, one of the world’s leading actuarial firms – true pension experts –analyzed the legislation, concluding it would actually cost taxpayers an additional $34 billion. (Read here for more details.)
The State Journal-Register raised serous questions about the cost of the legislation today, which would be a disaster for Illinois taxpayers.
Second, the premise that modest pensions earned by public employees caused the state’s budget problems is flat out wrong. Whether they are police or fire fighters, teachers or caregivers, these working men and women have contributed to their pensions from every paycheck. It’s the politicians who failed to make their payments.
Illinois is Broke: Intentionally deceitful? Or just painfully incompetent? Either way, their reckless legislation should not be taken seriously.
At an unscheduled status hearing this afternoon, in open court, U.S. District Judge James Zagel set sentencing for Rod R. Blagojevich at 10 a.m. on Dec. 6 and, if necessary, Dec. 7, 2011. The government and defense were ordered to file their respective sentencing memos by Nov. 30, 2011.
Blagojevich’s lawyer, Shelly Sorosky, said in court Monday that he thought the sentencing would take two days.
Sorosky said the ex-governor will testify at the hearing. “I think I can safely say that,” Sorosky told the judge.
Zagel told the defense to notify prosecutors by Dec. 1 if it intended to call any witnesses.
Assistant U.S. Attorney Reid Schar said he thinks most of the witnesses Blagojevich might call already have testified and been cross-examined.
“I don’t know what can be illuminated by calling more witnesses,” Schar said.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* The Sun-Times, by the way, has excerpts from the tapes that convicted Bill Cellini. Click here. And the Barrington Patch has an interview with Cellini juror Jennifer van Boven…
“I served with a phenomenal group of people,” van Boven said. “Everyone was respectful of each other’s thoughts and opinions.”
After three days of deliberation, the jury reached its verdict. Cellini was convicted on two counts: conspiracy to commit extortion and aiding and abetting the solicitation of a bribe. The prosecution made their case that Cellini agreed to use his power at the Illinois Teachers Retirement System to squeeze campaign donations from a Hollywood producer who did business with the state.
“The bulk of the evidence was in the tapes,” said van Boven, referring to Cellini’s voice on government recordings tying him to the extortion scheme. “There’s no doubt, he was clearly involved.” […]
“It was enlightening to see first-hand the corruption that exists in our state,” she said. “I hope our verdict sent a clear message that people will be held accountable for their actions.”
* The Sangamon County Republican Foundation’s chairman Andy Van Meter says Bill Cellini will continue serving as his group’s treasurer as long as Cellini wants, claiming that Cellini has mostly an honorary title anyway. Van Meter also chairs the Sangamon County Board. The SJ-R points to significant links to the foundation which go beyond a mere honorary affiliation…
* The foundation’s director is Janis Cellini, Bill’s sister;
* The administrative assistant of the political action committee, Robin Ellison, has the same title with the Illinois Asphalt Pavement Association, of which Bill Cellini remains executive director;
* In the three months ending Sept. 30, the foundation paid the asphalt group $397 in reimbursements for postage, copies and telephone use.
* And the offices of the foundation and the asphalt association are both in Near North Village, a building at Fifth and Jefferson streets that originally was developed by Cellini and other partners. The foundation paid $600 in rent to Near North Village over the same three-month period.
Asked about the connections, Van Meter said via email, “I can’t follow all this guilt by association.
The foundation raised less than $6,000 last quarter, but it had almost $300,000 in cash and investments. By comparison, the Sangamon County Republican Central Committee had just $31K in the bank.
Bill Cellini is highly respected in Springfield GOP circles, so I understand why his longtime friends don’t want to kick a man when he’s down. If this was a less serious conviction or a simple tax problem or whatever, I wouldn’t make a deal out of it. But he was convicted of two felonies relating directly to government and politics. Cellini should do Van Meter a favor and fall on his sword. Also, since the state GOP chairman has made a career out of slamming Democrats for their corruption, perhaps he ought to step in here.
* It is often said that the Lottery is a tax on the mathematically illiterate. With a hat tip to a commenter, much the same can be said of pay-to-vote online straw polls and Ron Paul supporters…
A strong internet presence pushed Ron Paul to the top in the Illinois Republican straw poll. The Texas congressman bested the other presidential candidates in the survey, which wrapped up on Saturday.
Casting a ballot in the straw poll cost $5, and the Illinois Republican Party said more than 3600 people participated. Three quarters of them did so online, which is how Ron Paul claimed more than 50 percent of the vote.
“I think what this does is it shows the relative strengths of the candidates,” said U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk at a press conference announcing the results. “Ron Paul is obviously a big online performer.”
Mr Paul won 66.5 per cent of the votes cast over the Internet and 8 per cent of those cast in person.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earned 7 per cent of the online votes cast and 35 per cent of the in-person votes, winning the most in-person votes cast at 22 locations, the party said.
* Romney did not come in second place overall, however. That spot went to Herman Cain…
Finishing behind Paul’s 1,907 votes was businessman Herman Cain with 670 votes or 18 percent; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 515 votes or 14 percent; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 332 votes or 9 percent; Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 87 votes or 2.5 percent; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman with 54 votes or 1.5 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 43 votes or 1.2 percent; and Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann with 41 votes or 1.1 percent.
The poll — at least momentarily — had pivoted the conversation from the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries to Illinois, fueling races up and down the ticket with both enthusiasm and campaign cash.
That may be way too generous.
* A small blip occurred when 30 people tried to cast more than one vote. Mark Kirk blamed it on Tom Cross…
That apparently wasn’t clear to the House Republican Organization, a political group headed by state Rep. Tom Cross, the GOP leader in the Illinois House. An email to supporters said online participants “can vote multiple times to ‘run up the score’ for your favorite candidate.”
“Yeah - [Cross] was incorrect,” Kirk said when asked about the email, which was first written about on the website Republican News Watch. “And so, we did find 30 people that tried to vote twice and they were eliminated.”
Republicans trying to block a Democratic-drawn congressional redistricting map have told a federal court panel that documents show a concerted effort from Springfield to Washington to “get more Democratic pick-ups” at the expense of GOP members in the Illinois delegation.
Republicans are using the documents involving the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the staffs of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and Illinois Senate President John Cullerton of Chicago, and others to bolster their contention that the new map is unconstitutional because it is politically gerrymandered and dilutes Latino representation.
In the request for a permanent injunction, filed late Friday night with a three-judge federal court panel, Republicans cite correspondence in which Ian Russell, the DCCC’s Midwest political director, thanks a member of Cullerton’s staff for guidance on how to “advance our goal — more Democratic pick-ups.”
The Democrats freely admit that politics played a major role in the remap process. The GOP allegations amount to a legal longshot, however…
Trying to get a court to reverse a map based on political decisions has historically been difficult.
That’s an understatement.
* And let’s conclude our GOP roundup with a GOP caption contest. Here’s Congressman Joe Walsh…
Take it easy in comments, people. Don’t get carried away with violent imagery. I don’t like it. Thanks.
Pat Quinn seems to have a cloud hovering above him, even when he is the bearer of good tidings.
There was Governor Quinn on Thursday morning, inside a Red Line el stop at 35th Street and the Dan Ryan Expressway, to announce impressive financial help for desperately needed Chicago Transit Authority improvements.
But he seemed as upbeat as Jackie Gleason portraying Maish, the conniving but kind-hearted boxing manager in the film version of “Requiem for a Heavyweight,” who looks out a coffee shop window and forlornly mumbles, “I’m in Pittsburgh and it’s raining.” […]
Quinn might climb atop the Hancock Center if he took things quite as personally, given his legislative defeats and evolving caricature as gadfly-turned-bumbling executive […]
As I left the wind-swept Red Line stop, I ran into Jacky Grimshaw, a transit authority board member and longtime community organizer-activist. She has known Quinn since their days as young bucks with Gov. Dan Walker in the mid-1970s.
“He’s still the populist he was back then, with the same basic bottom-line value system, looking out for the little guy,” Grimshaw said.
That sounds quaint to Springfield’s hard-bitten crowd. But there are worse reflexes.
By last Thursday, when Warren attended that presser, Gov. Quinn had completely toned down his act. The controversy over his leadership style wasn’t because of his purely upbeat press conferences beginning last Wednesday. The seeds of the legislative and media backlash were sown weeks earlier.
More and more lawmakers are expressing frustration with Gov. PAT QUINN and the way he operates. Some even compare Quinn with his unbeloved predecessor, ROD BLAGOJEVICH.
The frustration comes from a couple of areas. One is Quinn’s penchant for doing things seemingly without fully thinking through the consequences. A prime example is the regional school superintendent issue, where Quinn eliminated money for their salaries without any plan for how their duties, specified in state law, would be carried out.
Some lawmakers also believe Quinn is becoming more confrontational. Quinn unloaded on lawmakers a couple of weeks ago, suggesting their votes on the smart-grid bill were bought and paid for with utility company donations. Last week in Chicago, Quinn said he doesn’t have to be a pal with lawmakers.
Pals? Not necessarily. But as long as the legislature remains a branch of government, it’s probably a good idea to at least reach a working accommodation with them. If not, it’s going to be a very long three years until the next election.
*Quinn also raised hackles last week with comments on the gambling-expansion bill. After first signaling an interest in negotiating a bill with lawmakers, Quinn said, “I don’t think the word negotiate is appropriate.”
What is appropriate? The “my-way-or-the-highway” approach? That’s always successful in government.
The question now is whether Quinn stopped the legislative bashing too late to stem his veto session losses.
* The governor held a press conference today and stayed uniformly positive and professional…
I had to chuckle when I heard the governor say that before Cardinal George and the bishops sent out a press release to publicly criticize him they should’ve asked for a private meeting to discuss his attendance at Personal PAC’s fundraiser. Excluding the past five days or so, Quinn’s behavior has made the Cardinal’s look almost tame by comparison.
* Roundup…
* Illinois man freed after murder conviction vacated: One of five men sent to prison for the rape and murder of a middle school classmate two decades ago walked out of an Illinois prison Friday, exonerated by new DNA evidence that also has cleared at least two of the others, including his half-brother. James Harden, now 36, stood outside the walls of Menard Correctional Center in Chester and said the taste of freedom was “like breathing new life in my body.”
* Would speed cameras really save lives? - Ticketing may bring in revenue, but statistics show city’s proposed ’safety zones’ are not where most kids are killed by speeders
* Moody’s: Removing Property Tax Exemption for Illinois Hospitals Would Be “Credit Negative”
* Brady: Tax break bill should pass this week: “We warned Gov. Pat Quinn when he threatened to pass this (income) tax increase that there would be ramifications,” Brady said. “And, we’ve seen them and not just in these two companies but in several companies.”
In an exclusive interview last week, CME Group Executive Chairman Terry Duffy said he’s more than ready to leave Illinois if he doesn’t get what he believes is a “fair” tax deal from the General Assembly.
The company owns the Chicago Board of Trade and several other firms. It’s a very big wheel in this state and leaving would be the worst sort of news for Democrats who raised taxes this year.
Duffy has been under intense pressure all year from Wall Street to reduce expenses. State taxes are listed as expenses on corporate books, so Duffy has been publicly fuming about his company’s $150 million a year state tax burden since corporate tax rates were increased.
Duffy claims CME pays 6 percent of all corporate income taxes here, and pays more than any other company. “I don’t know another company in the world that pays 6 percent of another state’s taxes.”
As recently as four years ago, the vast majority of CME’s trades were physically handled on the floor of his exchanges like the Chicago Board of Trade. Now, almost 90 percent of trades are performed electronically, and Duffy says that difference means CME shouldn’t be paying taxes on trades which are obviously originating in other states and other countries. Trouble is, he won’t (and insists he can’t) reveal exactly where those trades are originating, so state negotiators instead decided to reduce his tax burden by roughly two-thirds, which means $100 million a year less in state income taxes paid by CME.
Duffy said he’d talked to at least half of the General Assembly’s members in the past several days, many of whom said they wanted something else in exchange for helping his company, like tax breaks for other industries.
“I really think these people don’t believe that I have an alternative,” a defiant Duffy said, pointing to very generous offers from other states.
The executive chairman claimed he’s been offered as much as $600 million to move Aurora’s high tech center and mentioned a report about how Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels had offered CME $150 million a year in tax relief — CME’s entire state tax burden. When reminded that Gov. Daniels had denied the offer was made, Duffy said “The governor denied the number, but he didn’t deny the discussions. My shareholders heard it. They’re going to say, ‘What the hell did you do that (stay in Illinois) for? We care about us.’ ”
I’ve criticized Duffy for waiting until after his taxes went up to complain about how his company had historically been mistreated by the state’s tax code. This year’s tax hike cost CME $50 million, but Duffy wants double that amount to stay put. Since he didn’t seem to care about his taxes until January, why should the state give him anything beyond what the tax hike cost the company? Duffy claimed he’d been working on the situation for at least two years. He said he didn’t think he needed to make anything public until he was forced to when he was asked about the tax hike during a shareholders’ meeting.
However, Duffy said he hadn’t met with the governor or anyone else here before the tax hike. “Why work with Illinois when other states have a more business friendly approach?” he asked.
And as to why CME refuses to offer anything tangible in return for its tax deal, like all other companies seeking tax relief have to do, Duffy said he doubted the legality of those agreements. If Motorola broke its subsidy deal, Duffy said, it’s doubtful there’d be any real legal ramifications. “We’ve been here 163 years,” Duffy said. “We think we’ve demonstrated that we’re good corporate citizens. I can’t tie my shareholders’ hands like that.”
But if CME is such a good corporate citizen, why demand all that cash when Duffy knows the state budget is still so tight? I mentioned a recent $4.6 million state cut to homeless services which has resulted in tens of thousands of people being turned away from shelters. “I’m not asking the state for $100 million,” Duffy said, “I’m asking to give me a rule to say this is what I think is being traded in Illinois and here’s what I’ll pay, whatever the tax rate will be.”
CME, Duffy said, has averaged 19 percent growth for 30 years. “I pay people and they pay taxes and that money can go to the homeless shelters.”
He didn’t make it sound as harsh as it looks, but it’s an argument he has to deal with.
* It wasn’t covered by the media, but the CME tax cut and the company’s Chicago TIF money were a major focus of Occupy Chicago’s interruption of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s Union League Club speech last week. Watch…
The “mic check” is necessary in New York because the city bans megaphones on public streets. It’s kinda creepy and weird when the occupiers use it when they don’t have to. The call and repeat sounds almost cultish to my ears. But, tactically, it works well when you’re trying to shout down somebody who has a “real” microphone.
Oberhelman shared a story of a recent Asian business summit in China. Two Chinese businessmen asked why Caterpillar maintains its business presence in Illinois, with the state’s well-documented corruption and high business costs.
The question angered Oberhelman. When he returned to the U.S., he said he fired off a letter to Gov. Pat Quinn. To this point, it hasn’t done any good.
“Our biggest, most important plants are rooted here,” he said when an audience member pressed him on why Caterpillar does stay in Illinois. “From a corporate standpoint, it would be hard to uproot 4,000 engineers from our Peoria headquarters.”
He paused a moment and added, “But that doesn’t mean it’s forever.”
It hasn’t done any good at all? Really? The workers’ comp reforms this year weren’t completely to Cat’s liking, but the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association was in full support, as were other business groups and most Senate Republicans. It’s done some good. And what about all those kind words Oberhelman had for Illinois this past spring?…
“We’ve got a lot of good things going for us in Illinois,” [Oberhelman] said.
While Oberhelman’s letter informed Quinn of offers by four other states that sought to lure Caterpillar from Illinois, the CEO reaffirmed his commitment to the state. “Cat is here to stay. We’ve got 23,000 manufacturing jobs in this state.” [..]
Regarding the increase in the state income tax that Caterpillar said would cost its employees $40 million this year, Oberhelman called the increase “inevitable” since the state’s “(economic) hole is so deep.”
Business interests played a key role in the most significant restructuring of the corporate income tax code of the past decade or so, when the state restricted the tax to profit stemming from in-state sales and eliminated property value and payroll size from the formula.
The move cut tax bills of Illinois-based manufacturing giants and other multinationals, whose sales are spread worldwide. The cost to the state has been an estimated $100 million annually, [House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie] said.
Proponents had projected the change would spur 285,000 new manufacturing jobs. Instead, the sector’s employment shrank to about 600,000, down from as many as 800,000 when the legislation took effect.
Cat was the number one cheerleader behind that change to the single-sales factor, which cut the company’s state tax burden down to almost nothing. Instead of adding workers like it promised, though, the company has cut back here and created new jobs in union-hostile states and in China. All Illinois really did was essentially subsidize Cat’s gradual move out.
* CME’s boss is angry, Cat’s boss is angry and the occupiers are angry about the taxpayer help already given to CME and Cat. Heck, even Mother Tribune is sounding a little occupyish these days…
Through what tortured logic, then, was it necessary for taxpayers to gift the Sox with a steakhouse? The sports authority spent $7 million to build and equip Bacardi at the Park, adjacent to the stadium. The Sox get the proceeds. Why? Because nobody at the table was looking after the taxpayers.
“We said to Jerry, ‘Jerry, can we have part of the profits?’” Thompson told the Tribune’s Jared S. Hopkins. “And he said no. We said OK.”
Think about that a minute. In 1988, Reinsdorf got his way by saying or else. This time all he had to say was no. […]
Gov. Pat Quinn has already replaced the board members who serve as his appointments. Mayor Rahm Emanuel ought to do the same. It’s time we stacked that board with people who don’t have trouble remembering whose interests they’re supposed to represent. Hint: It’s not Jerry Reinsdorf.
* Related…
* Saving jobs focus of brewing Illinois tax deal: “If you’re going to see broad-based changes, it’s going to take a lot of work and a lot of time,” said Todd Maisch, vice president of government affairs for the business representative group, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce. Maisch said lawmakers are expected to vote on the CME tax package next week during the final week of the fall veto session, but he said he doesn’t believe the legislators will begin working on major tax reform until 2013. Until then, Maisch said, Illinois businesses are going to have to live with the reality that the state’s tax code does play favorites. “If you’re a dry cleaner and a third of your customers work at Sears, you are happy with this (package)” Maisch said. “If you have a cleaning contract with CME, then you are happy about this. But if you’re a small business that is not directly tied in, then you are feeling jilted. No doubt about it.”
* Time for a level-headed approach to business, taxes: “One of the problems in economics is the seen versus the unseen,” the Tax Foundation’s Robyn said. “We see a big corporation leave our state and take 1,000 jobs, and that’s very visible and we say, ‘We’ve got to keep those jobs here.’ But what you don’t see is when those 1,000 jobs leave, what other opportunities open up in the state or, more importantly, if you buy them off and give them all this money to stay, what you don’t see is the opportunity you lost with that revenue. You could have used that money for something else.”
Cardinal Francis George said Sunday that he did not have all the facts when the Catholic Conference of Illinois issued a statement decrying Gov. Pat Quinn for his involvement with an abortion-rights organization that, it turned out, plans to give an award to an advocate for rape victims.
George, leader of the Roman Catholic archdiocese of Chicago, and the five other bishops who oversee the church in Illinois released the statement Wednesday criticizing Quinn, a Catholic, for his plans to present an award Nov. 17 at the annual luncheon for the Personal PAC. The statement said Quinn had “gone beyond a political alignment with those supporting the legal right to kill children in their mothers’ wombs to rewarding those deemed most successful in this terrible work.” […]
“I deeply regret that,” George said Sunday afternoon, en route to Holy Name Cathedral in Chicago, where he was scheduled to present awards to parishioners for their dedication to ministries. “A rape victim demands all the respect and sympathy that anybody can give.”
“I first heard of Ms. Goodman only after we had crafted the statement (and) published it. Then, all of a sudden she comes forward. All of a sudden, she was there, and that wasn’t part of the story as we did it,” George said.
Speaking outside a banquet celebrating the 130th anniversary of Chicago’s St. Elizabeth Parish, George said “had we known that [Goodman] was involved and known her story we may have found another occasion to say something about the governor.”
Later Saturday, the Catholic Conference of Illinois also said the “bishops were not aware of her and her tragic story.”
The statement said that conference executive director Bob Gilligan “takes responsibility for not adequately informing the bishops.”
Director Gilligan has been very aggressive with his attacks on Gov. Quinn. I doubt they’ll subside, but perhaps Gilligan will be more precise in the future. He obviously didn’t give the Cardinal and others the full story before they unloaded both barrels on Gov. Quinn last week. Perhaps a little more thought and reflection are in order here. As I write this, there’s no apology on the Catholic Conference’s website. The top story is from Fox Chicago’s Mike Flannery about the controversy, which both hyped Cardinal George’s original attack and seemed to demonize the opposition.
Two weeks out of high school, Jennie Goodman had not been up long that summer morning back in 1991 when a football player friend bound for college paid an unexpected visit to her North Shore home.
Wearing the T-shirt and shorts she had slept in, she felt unkempt but noticed that he was “looking at me differently,” Goodman said. The young man, who was not a boyfriend, asked whether they could go somewhere away from her mother, who was at home, too. The shed behind her home popped into Goodman’s mind.
“I thought we’d go into the shed, and we’d make out. How exciting. I was nervous because I was inexperienced with that,” said Goodman, who was an 18-year-old virgin. “I knew he dated other girls and knew he was much more physically experienced.”
Once in that shed, excitement turned quickly to pain. The young man took off her shirt, then her shorts. He pinned her to the ground, closed his eyes and raped her, ignoring her pleas to stop.
That violent act 20 years ago reshaped Goodman’s life and now has made her the unlikely focal point of a nasty spat between two of Illinois’ most powerful men: the state’s Roman Catholic governor and the spiritual head of 2.3 million Chicago area Roman Catholics.
* Carol Marin, a Catholic who isn’t all that popular with the Archdiocese, summed it up…
In the current controversy, Goodman cut a 2010 campaign commercial for the pro-choice Quinn, saying, “I was raped at 18. I don’t know what I would have done if I had gotten pregnant.”
The cardinal and the Catholic Conference now question Quinn’s Catholicism. The Rev. Larry McNally, pastor of Ascension Catholic Church in Oak Park, does not.
“He comes to church at Ascension. I give him communion,” McNally said Friday. “His heart is with the needy and the poor.”
McNally knows what it’s like to be in the cardinal’s cross hairs.
Reprimanded by the archdiocese for supporting the ordination of women, he was ordered to publicly apologize for deviating from church doctrine, and he did.
“I love my priesthood and my parish,” he said. “Staying was more important than leaving.”
Pat Quinn has chosen to stay in the church of his birth as well. As the Gospel of Luke makes clear, we all walk among people with whom we profoundly disagree.
It doesn’t hurt to love them.
Or listen.
* I’m taking the morning off, but any attacks on Ms. Goodman in comments during my absence will be met with the full force of my considerable retaliatory capabilities. Don’t even think about it.
* I like and respect Chuck Sweeny, and I don’t mean to single him out, but this sort of opinion appears to be rampant these days…
The Legislature returns to Springfield this week for three days of nothing much as far as I’ve been able to determine. The lawmakers will get their per diem payments and return home, not to come back until January.
And 2012 being an election year, there isn’t much hope that controversial work will get done then. Can Illinois wait until 2013 before problems of epic proportions created by a generation of lawmakers and governors are addressed? […]
I am talking, rather, about real problems like the state’s $14 billion debt, the worst-in-the-nation $85 billion unfunded pension liability and the billions owed to businesses and nonprofits that have performed services and provided goods to the state but must wait months to get paid.
I’m not sure where that “$14 billion debt” figure comes from, but whatever.
Chuck’s column was titled “Lawmakers know what to do; I doubt they do it.” It didn’t really contain much in the way of solutions to our immediate problems, and it showed a lack of understanding for where we’ve been. So…
For instance, here are base state revenues (blue) vs. base spending (red) from FY 1995 through FY 2010…
Almost the entire backlog of overdue state bills was generated during that last bizarrely unprecedented spike. Illinois has been dragging those unpaid bills behind it ever since.
Look at the history and disregard the propaganda. Revenues and spending mostly went hand in hand until after the 2006 election, when Rod Blagojevich declared all-out war on Speaker Madigan and Madigan responded in kind. We had huge spending increases while revenues tanked with the international economy. I’ve always believed that Madigan deliberately tried to bring the government to its knees during this period. It almost worked. Trouble was, Rod got arrested and was then impeached, so Madigan, et al had to dig their way out of the hole they created in the wake of what was by all definitions a political civil war (a war which I supported, by the way, but also repeatedly warned of its consequences).
* The ferocity of the international collapse obviously took Madigan and others by surprise. By the time they looked up from their war, the budget had gone to heck and the piper had to be paid. Here’s revenue growth ending FY 2010…
Couple the lower [federally reimbursable state spending] with a return to a lower [federal] match rate on what spending does take place, and federal sources are expected to fall $1.036 billion from last year’s levels.
Monday, Nov 7, 2011 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
Enough is enough. Let’s look at their claims:
STOP Claim: “Taylorville Energy Center electricity will cost SEVEN times market price.”
The Truth: STOP compares today’s historically low market prices with a price that includes 30 YEARS OF INFLATION. It’s like comparing the price of gas at the pump today with what we’ll pay between now and 2041.
STOP Claim: “Tenaska wants Illinois consumers to pay even if their plant produces no power.”
The Truth: The legislation was changed six months ago at the request of ComEd so this remote possibility could never happen. Consumers aren’t “on the hook.” Which part do STOP and ComEd not understand?
STOP Claim: “We don’t need any new baseload. The speculation on the closure of baseload plants is just that, it’s speculation.”
The Truth: So far, 239 coal plants are scheduled to close because of the new EPA rules. Industry analysts expect Illinois to lose up to HALF of its coal plants, which currently provide 45% of Illinois electricity.
A diverse coalition of elected officials, business and labor, consumer and environmental groups from around the state knows the truth and supports SB 678, the Comprehensive Energy Efficiency and Investment Act.
Interviews with legislative leaders, union officials and business leaders suggest that a vote [on the pension reform bill] will probably not take place this week. Pressure from organized labor, incumbents’ nervousness about running for re-election in new districts, concern over inciting primary-election challenges and legislators’ penchant for delay when facing politically treacherous issues are creating a strong headwind.
Ultimately, one person will decide whether to call the pension bill for a vote: Mr. Madigan. According to legislative and business leaders who have spoken to him, he has not revealed his plans. “This might be something he’d rather do in the spring, but he has not expressed that to me,” said Mr. Cross, who is sponsoring the bill with Mr. Madigan. “He doesn’t always explain to you what he’s going to do.”
Reading Speaker Madigan’s mind ain’t easy, but this time he’s pretty clear, regardless of the spin…
Mr. Madigan’s spokesman said the speaker would call Senate Bill 512 as soon as Mr. Cross signaled he was ready. Yet without confirmation from Mr. Madigan that he will have the 30 Democratic votes needed for passage, Mr. Cross is likely to wait.
“When our friends on the other side of the aisle are ready, we’ll be there,” Mr. Cross said. “I’ve been living this issue for so long. I’m ready to get it done.”
SB 512 is Leader Cross’ bill. Cross is the chief sponsor, so he can call the bill whenever he wants, and Madigan has repeatedly said that Cross has full control of the legislation. So the above report is way over-analyzed, to the point of obfuscation. Also, Madigan’s people have told me that the Speaker has never promised Cross that he’d put 30 votes on the pension reform bill. Cross is stalling. Why? Either he doesn’t have the 30 votes he says he has or he truly doesn’t want to move a bill before it’s ready, or both. I’m betting on both.
But there’s a catch… the [pension] reforms mainly apply to new hires, not to the existing state workforce. This was apparently a bridge too far, politically and also legally, because state constitutions and court decisions make it difficult to reduce current pensions. That the governors’ new ideas apply mostly to future hires limits their short-term financial impact. […]
No one said that it would be easy to take on public-sector unions; nor are pensions the sole cause of state and local financial distress. The Democratic governors who have acted, even tentatively, deserve credit.
But the problem is so big that they will eventually have to do more. Sooner or later, state and local governments must further rein in benefits for current employees — so that the cost of providing for public servants tomorrow does not make it impossible to provide actual public services today.
* The state’s pension reform law has been widely panned, particularly by the Tribune. But let’s look at some real numbers, shall we? From the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability’s most recent pension report…
• Under P.A. 96-0889 [the pension reform bill for new hires], State contribution for fiscal years 2010 – 2045 will be reduced by $71.1 billion as a result of a second tier of benefits for new hires.
• Under P.A. 96-0889, the projected accrued liability for the five State retirement systems combined in fiscal year 2045 is reduced significantly from $555.7 billion to $295.3 billion. […]
• [Under P.A. 96-0889], the projected unfunded liability for the five State retirement systems combined in fiscal year 2045 is reduced from $55,167.6 million to $29,532.1 million.
That’s pretty significant. And look at the difference that bill made…
• Tier 1 active employees will decline in number until about FY 2018, when total active membership will be roughly equal between Tier 1 and Tier 2 members.
Under P.A. 96-0889, the unfunded liability will increase for a number of years at a faster rate than it otherwise would have, until about FY 2035, when it is projected to decrease. This is because of the decreased accrued liability in FY 2045 which is attributable to a second tier of benefits for new hires. This decreased accrued liability means the State now must reach 90% of a lowered target, and thus contributions will decrease accordingly. While contributions will decrease, in the immediate future liabilities will accrue at much the same pace as they would have before the second tier of benefits went into place since most active employees will be “Tier 1” employees for the foreseeable future.
As shown in chart below, the single largest driver of the increase in the unfunded liability has been insufficient employer contributions. Other factors contributing to the growth in the unfunded liability include investment losses when compared to the assumed rate of return, benefit increases, and changes in actuarial assumptions. The category “other factors” encompasses miscellaneous actuarial factors such as rates of termination, disability, and pre-and post-retirement mortality.
* State university chiefs lobby against pension reform bill: In the note, the school presidents and chancellors say their ability to recruit top staff would be hurt if the state shifts retirement costs to individual workers, rather than having taxpayers pick up the tab.
* If you want to find me tomorrow night, catch me here.
* Turn your volume up all the way and make the video full screen because nothing, and I do mean nothing, can ever top Tina Turner from back in the day…
Gov. Pat Quinn and the four legislative leaders have settled on a framework to present to rank-and-file lawmakers on a tax-cut deal that could persuade two major Chicago-area employers from moving out of state.
The package is being circulated among the four legislative caucuses and could come up for a vote when lawmakers return to Springfield next week for the final half of their fall veto session. […]
The package, first reported in the Capitol Fax newsletter published by Sun-Times columnist Rich Miller, would be funded mostly through decoupling from the federal bonus depreciation law.
Under the terms of the tax-cut plan being considered, $100 million of that windfall would go toward Chicago-based CME Group over a two-year period. […]
Another chunk of the windfall would fund a $15 million state EDGE tax credit for Sears, which would enable the company to pocket half of what its existing employees pay in state income taxes and all of the income taxes paid by new workers. […]
Other businesses would benefit by reinstating a tax break on net operating losses that ended when Quinn and lawmakers raised state income taxes in January. That break would amount to close to $380 million.
Quinn also has sought to include a gradual increase in the earned income tax credit, which benefits the state’s working poor, and an inflation-indexed jump in the personal income tax exemption.
This may or may not be the final plan. Time will tell. What we have now is the general framework and the leaders appear to be in agreement. It’s up to the members now.
Chicago’s public school district and its teachers union announced a truce Friday in their fight over Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s campaign to lengthen the school day.
Under the agreement, Chicago Public Schools won’t ask additional district-run schools to lengthen their day this year beyond the 13 elementary schools that already voted to do so. In exchange, the union will drop its request for an injunction that aimed to block additional votes at other schools.
Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis said “we’re not reverting anything back” with regard to those schools.
Emanuel persuaded the schools to lengthen their day by offering financial incentives, although the Illinois Educational Labor Relations Board recently voted to block negotiations with more schools.
“The first tax hike was to pay the pensions. The second is to pay the bills.”
Last January, the Democrats hiked your income taxes from 3-5%, a 67% increase. No Republicans voted for it. Democrats owned it.
They called the income tax hike… temporary.
Here’s what my Chicago Democrat friends are telling me now: after the November 2012 elections, in the lame duck session, they’re going to increase the income tax from 5-7%, a 40% increase.
Every dime of the January tax hike when to pay the pensions. This left Illinois with $8 billion of unpaid bills. Did they cut spending? No. Last spring, the legislature spent a $1 billion more.
They’re spending more now because they’re actually making the pension payments. But, whatever. And I find it hard to believe he has “Chicago Democrat friends” if he refers to them as “Chicago Democrat friends.”
On Saturday, November 12 at the Hilton Garden Inn- Champaign, we host our For The Good of Illinois VIP Banquet: Gather at 6pm and Dinner at 6:30pm. Tickets are $35
I’ve asked Andrzejewski who told him of this top secret Democratic plot that’s so secret even the Democrats don’t know about it. I’ll let you know what he says.
* And if all that wasn’t enough, he’s also promising newsworthiness…
During my keynote address, I’ll break statewide news.
* The Question: What do you think this “breaking statewide news” item will be?
Snark is heavily encouraged, of course.
*** UPDATE *** Here’s his response to my question…
Hi Rich,
In June, I was in the same room with a good friend of mine who travels in the highest democratic circles. He is an extremely well connected Bridgeport man. I was witness to the conversation. It is factual. I don’t believe that I can reveal more without compromising my friend and the conversation. This is Illinois.
Since that conversation, I’ve challenged elected democrats around the state. They may shrug their shoulders but none of them have disputed it. I’ve dropped it on Decatur radio, Champaign radio and in editorial board interviews. No one disputes the suggestion.
Why don’t you try to get a “no tax” pledge out of democratic leadership and legislators? If they took that pledge, they would have to cut spending. On the contrary, they are INCREASING spending.
If there isn’t pension reform, real workers comp reform and deep spending cuts, the only other option is to hike taxes another 2 percent.
Democrats want to get this out of the way so Lisa Madigan can run on a tax cut for Governor.
Republican Rep. Joe Walsh was the only Illinois congressman to be named a “True Blue” member of Congress for “unwavering support of the family” by the Family Research Council Action committee Thursday.
Walsh’s ex-wife says Walsh owes more than $100,000 in back child support for their three children. Walsh counters that he and his wife had a “verbal agreement” that he didn’t have to pay child support during years when he wasn’t earning as much.
“We thank Cong. Walsh who has voted consistently to defend faith, family and freedom,” said FRCA President Tony Perkins. “Cong. Walsh and other ‘True Blue Members’ have voted to repeal Obamacare, de-fund Planned Parenthood, end government funding for abortion within the health care law, uphold the Defense of Marriage Act, and continue support for school choice. I applaud their commitment to uphold the institutions of marriage and family.”
It most certainly is an embarrassing moment for the FRC and the additional commentary by Perkins appears hypocritical. Left-leaning sites like Think Progress and HuffPo have piled on.
* Not to defend Walsh, but the group’s rating was solely based on Walsh’s voting record alone, not the congressman’s personal behavior. He was the only Illinois congressman to receive a 100 percent rating based on his votes. The full list is here. The other Illinois conservatives, including Walsh’s primary opponent Randy Hultgren, received a 90 percent rating.
And if you check the Family Research Council’s political action committee website, you’ll see that they’re currently backing Hultgren. That’s probably why Walsh sent out his press release touting his 100 percent rating. He’s obfuscating the issue here. But, again, all he really did was prompt the Sun-Times and others to write more stories about his personal problems.
…Adding… Walsh says that the Family Research Council candidate support statement linked above is outdated. The PAC isn’t backing a candidate as of yet, he insisted.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today announced radio spots aimed at 25 House Republicans they hope to unseat next fall to reclaim the majority.
The ads mostly focus on ethics questions, and will air in the districts of these Members:
GOP Reps. Rick Crawford (Ark.), Dan Lungren (Calif.), Jeff Denham (Calif.), Elton Gallegly (Calif.), Mary Bono Mack (Calif.), Scott Tipton (Colo.), Daniel Webster (Fla.), Vern Buchanan (Fla.), David Rivera (Fla.), Steve King (Iowa), Timothy Johnson (Ill.), Bobby Schilling (Ill.), Larry Bucshon (Ind.), Roscoe Bartlett (Md.), Dan Benishek (Mich.), Charles Bass (N.H.), Joe Heck (Nev.), Ann Marie Buerkle (N.Y.), Lou Barletta (Pa.), Charlie Dent (Pa.), Kristi Noem (S.D.), Francisco “Quico” Canseco (Texas), Sean Duffy (Wis.), Reid Ribble (Wis.) and David McKinley (W.Va.).
The DCCC refused to disclose the size of the ad buy but in a press release called it “aggressive and grass roots,” a signal it is not likely a large amount. The spots begin Monday. The DCCC said it would pair the campaign with phone banks, robocalls and Web ads in the districts.
The spot against Buchanan tells voters a watchdog group called him “one of the most corrupt Members of Congress.” Some of the ads are specific to Members’ troubles and some use general critiques the DCCC often lobs at the GOP.
For the past seven weeks, a handful of congressmen and women have braved brisk temperatures to practice football drills at 7 a.m. on the Mall near the Capitol. It was all to prepare for the 2011 Congressional Football Game, which took place on Wednesday at the Watkins Recreation Center and pitted members of Congress against the Capitol Police for a good cause — to raise money for Our Military Kids and the Capitol Police Memorial Fund. (The police won, 27-14.)
He had weeks of preparation under his belt, so we put one of the star players — Rep. Robert Dold — to the test for POLITICO’s latest “Game Changer” feature.
Prosecutors want a judge to sentence a central figure in the administration of disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich to between 11 and 15 years in prison.
The filing comes before Tony Rezko’s Nov. 22 sentencing.
Prosecutors cited letters sent to the judge by Rezko supporters, but they say the court won’t “receive a letter from all the people who were cheated or defrauded by Rezko.”
The recommendation is in drastic contrast from the time served that Rezko’s lawyers are asking U.S. District Judge Amy St. Eve to impose at his Nov. 22 sentencing. Prosecutors say they believe Rezko should face 11 to 15 years in prison for a kickback case before St. Eve and a separate loan fraud case that was before U.S. District Judge James Zagel.
The government’s recommendation is significantly more steep than the roughly five and a half years that serial conman and drug abuser Stuart Levine faces. Levine is accused of conspiring with Rezko during Rod Blagojevich’s administrations to win kickbacks from state deals. […]
[Prosecutors] say Levine cooperated wore a wire and cooperated “pro-actively.” Levine has testified in two major trials. But Rezko’s lawyers argue, that prosecutors could have called Rezko to testify — he was prepared to do so — but they never did.
“In contrast, the best that can be said of Rezko’s cooperation is that, after obstructing the government’s investigation and his court proceedings and going to trial, he helped the government develop several witnesses who testified against Rod Blagojevich,” prosecutors wrote. “The timing, quality, and utility of Rezko’s cooperation pales in comparison to Levine’s. As a result, while Rezko and Levine are roughly equivalent when it comes to their past crimes, Rezko deserves a significantly higher sentence than Levine because Levine’s cooperation was so superior to Rezko’s.”
A convicted political fixer and onetime fundraiser for impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich wants a federal judge to set him free at his sentencing hearing later this month, arguing that he has already served more time awaiting sentencing — and under harsh conditions — than others convicted in related schemes have.
Tony Rezko — once described by prosecutors as “the man behind the curtain, pulling the strings” in Blagojevich’s administration — has spent much of his more than 3 1/2 years in jail in solitary, rarely getting fresh air and subject to a diet that has resulted in him losing 80 pounds, according to a defense filing unsealed Thursday.
“With his dramatic weight loss, Mr. Rezko has shrunk from a robust, somewhat overweight man to a frail and gaunt shell of his former self,” the filing says.
In arguing for a sentence of time served, the document insists the 56-year-old Rezko accepts responsibility for his wrongdoing. But it also suggests that Rezko didn’t engage in criminality on his own initiative but at the urging of Blagojevich and his other confidants.
Tony Rezko didn’t trust Stuart Levine until Bill Cellini vouched for him, according to documents filed by Rezko’s lawyers in federal court on Thursday.
Levine, then a member of the Teachers’ Retirement System board and an associate of Cellini, approached Rezko, a fundraiser and adviser to former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, about getting “finder’s fees” from firms that got state business and then directing the fees to people in the Blagojevich administration, according to the sentencing memo. p,,,]
“Mr. Rezko did not trust Stuart Levine when Levine first approached him, and it was only after Bill Cellini vouched for Levine that Rezko proceeded …” the filing said. “Rezko knew Cellini was the ultimate insider during the 26 years of Republican administrations that preceded Blagojevich, and Rezko knew that Cellini had made tens if not hundreds of millions from state business during that time period.
“Cellini had in place for years the apparatus that Blagojevich wanted Kelly and Rezko to build, and Levine was practically begging to maintain and even increase his thoroughly corrupt influence,” the memo says.
However, Rezko was actually acquitted of the Tom Rosenberg shakedown scam pushed by Levine.
* This “compromise” borrowing plan is picking up some Republican steam since it was first floated by Treasurer Dan Rutherford last month. Springfield’s three state legislators have signed on…
Quinn’ latest proposal, which he raised with legislative leaders last week, is to borrow $4.5 billion and repay it over seven years.
All three local lawmakers said they’re open to some type of borrowing plan, but with conditions.
“We would be willing to look at that if it is not long term, if it is a means to an end,” Bomke said.
By short term, the lawmakers said the money would have to be repaid in a year. Beyond that, Quinn needs to specify in detail how the borrowed money will be used, they said.
* Newspaper editorial boards have been up in arms about the General Assembly’s failure to act last week on a plan to deal with the state’s past-due bills. For instance, here’s the Bloomington Pantagraph…
But after a series of articles by The Associated Press and member newspapers, including The Pantagraph, showing the real harm being caused to small businesses, social service agencies, school districts and others by deadbeat Illinois’ delayed bill payments, lawmakers did absolutely nothing. The matter wasn’t even on the agenda for the governor or state lawmakers.
House Speaker Mike Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton told an Associated Press reporter they are waiting for signs of cooperation from Republicans.
Meanwhile, those owed billions of dollars by the state are waiting for signs of … well … signs of anything from Springfield.
Actually, some can’t wait any longer. They have laid off employees, cut programs, slashed expenses — you know, taken the serious actions that the state itself should be taking.
The Pantagraph did not endorse a specific plan, or even a direction. The paper just demanded some sort of action. Borrowing for a year may look like action, but it doesn’t really anything other than rearrange the deck chairs.
Nobody, but nobody, has proposed a plan to pay off these debts in a single year. If the state borrowed $4.5 billion for twelve months it would be almost right back where it started at the end of that time period because paying off the bond would require delaying payments to vendors and others or making drastic budget cuts that nobody has shown a real willingness beyond a press release to support.
These past-due bills have to be paid off over time, either through gradual budget cuts and perhaps new revenues, or via borrowing from the market. A single year of borrowing will not work.
Ms Topinka reckons that if budgets are frozen, Illinois could pay off its backlog within four years. She opposes the Democrats’ plan to issue more bonds to pay for pension and other obligations, since unlike the unpaid bills, they would incur interest – even though she admits transferring the debt from service providers to bondholders would be fairer.
“I’m not going to tell you this is a good way of doing business,” she says. “It’s awful. We’re trying to find a better way to build this mousetrap. But we have to play catch-up, so we can’t add to the problem.”
* Finally, an Illinois angle on Herman Cain. From the Washington Times comes this contradictory report…
Herman Cain’s campaign is revealing suspicions about who is behind the story regarding the former unidentified employees who accused Mr. Cain of sexual harassment in the late 1990’s.
According to a source who is friends with the Cain campaign, not only is the Rick Perry campaign involved but also the Mayor of Chicago and former Obama White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is likely involved with the sexual harassment accuser attacks. A friend of the Cain campaign believes a National Restaurant Association (NRA) employee out of the Chicago office leaked the story to the Perry campaign via information and influence from Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s office.
So, Rick Perry and Rahmbo have teamed up to tube Cain? Really? Wouldn’t Emanuel want somebody with Cain’s baggage to win the Republican nomination? Apparently not if you’re the Cain campaign or the Washington Times.
Chris Mather, a spokeswoman for Mr. Emanuel, writes in to offer the following comment on the Washington Times speculation: “This is absurd. It’s completely false and totally absurd.”
Mather even offered to repeat it in several languages, but I believe her. A Cain blow-up doesn’t further Rahm’s agenda. Some Republican opposition research dropped this dime.
The odd thing is that the most stunning thing coming out of the mouth of Cain this week had nothing to do with women. It had to do with China.
“So yes, they’re a military threat,” he said during a recent PBS interview. “They’ve indicated that they’re trying to develop nuclear capability and they want to develop more aircraft carriers like we have. So yes, we have to consider them a military threat.”
Let that one sink in for a moment. Cain is running for president, the establishment lights him up like some cuddly Santa so he can be the conservative standard-bearer, and he thinks China might finally be going nuclear?
China has been a nuclear power for five decades or so now. And Cain doesn’t know?
* I’ve been chuckling to myself about Cain in recent weeks as the Republican candidate soared in every poll. It seemed to me that many Republican voters were making the very same mistake that elements of Illinois’ Republican establishment made here in 2004 when they brought Alan Keyes in to run against Barack Obama for US Senate.
Herman Cain is the person many Illinois Republicans hoped Alan Keyes was in 2004 after Republican Jack Ryan felt compelled to leave the U.S. Senate race in the midst of marital issue revelations. It made sense to most involved at the time to remove the race issue against Obama and focus on philosophical differences, something many hoped a Keyes-Obama runoff would do.
The only thing was Alan Keyes is not Herman Cain.
That 2004 candidate Keyes was intense, angry, self-righteous and arrogant. He was more focused on making a point than winning an election. And we all paid a price when he lost. It ended up that that U.S. Senate race was historical and nation-changing, and the mention of that 2004 U.S. Senate race now sets gloom onto the faces of any Republican that was politically active at the time. Justified or not, our bad experience in Illinois with Alan Keyes is likely to cause many to shy away from embracing Herman Cain.
And while we’re not endorsing or promoting any GOP primary candidate at this time, we urge Illinois Republicans to rest assured Herman Cain is not Alan Keyes, and Illinoisans need not fear Herman Cain. Cain is experienced in business, used to working with differing ideas, self-assured, gracious and resilient.
He is not Alan Keyes.
I think that piece could be rewritten today to say Cain is more like Keyes than not. He’s spent a lot of time promoting his new book instead of putting together a real campaign, and it shows in his disjointed and often bizarre responses to this latest blowup. Keyes was more about promoting his personal brand than actually running for office. And Cain hasn’t been “intense, angry, self-righteous and arrogant” since this scandal broke?
Some folks just never learn.
*** UPDATE *** From comments…
The allegations against Cain are not a threat to his electoral chances, they are a threat to his future as a cable TV talk show host and his future book deals.
Cain isn’t running to be nominated, he’s following the Sarah Palin model of running to win celebrity status, which he can then use to make some real money.
I agree, but that model was pretty much invented by Alan Keyes. And Keyes really blew it by running for US Senate here and exposing his many weaknesses. People barely pay attention to him now. He’s washed up. I think Cain was probably trying to fill that void, and now he’s hurt himself, unless he somehow manages to win the nomination (and, considering GOP primary voters, he’s still not out of it).
* This video was suggested yesterday by a longtime subscriber as a Friday afternoon play-out song. I liked it so much that I thought it might be better to start today with it. Oh, save me from tomorrow…
