* Politico…
House Democrats, facing strong political headwinds, are shifting millions of dollars of TV advertising away from 2014 challengers in order to prop up some of their most vulnerable incumbents.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is scaling back on planned commercial airtime in 11 Republican-held districts, the group said Monday. Those resources will be used to help four Democratic lawmakers facing treacherous reelection campaigns and two other candidates in districts that Democrats are trying to win from Republicans. […]
As part of the plan, Democrats will cancel planned TV advertising in a group of districts held by Republican lawmakers, all of which are now considered essentially out of reach. They include… the Illinois district of Rep. Rodney Davis […]
In exchange, Democrats will increase financial support for four party incumbents: Illinois Reps. Brad Schneider and Bill Enyart… Each is locked in a tight race against a Republican challenger.
I never understood why Callis allowed herself to be talked into this race, unless maybe she wants to try again in two years with Hillary on the ticket.
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FOP goes with Quinn
Monday, Oct 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The FOP endorsed Bill Brady four years ago, so this is worth noting for that reason alone. However, with Bruce Rauner slamming the governor over his 2009 early release program, landing the coppers’ backing can help fend off those attacks…
Governor Pat Quinn today was endorsed by the state’s largest public safety organization, the Illinois Fraternal Order of Police, which represents more than 35,000 active duty and retired police officers in Illinois. Today’s major endorsement by the largest public safety organization in Illinois adds to the growing momentum for Governor Quinn’s re-election in 2014.
“Governor Quinn is the strong leader we need to protect the people of Illinois,” said Chris Southwood, President of the Illinois Fraternal Order of Police State Lodge (FOP). “There is only one candidate in this race with a proven record of making the tough decisions to protect public safety. Governor Quinn is on our side fighting every day to keep our communities safe and we are proud to endorse him in this important election.”
“I am extremely honored to have the support of our police officers,” Governor Quinn said. “These hard-working women and men put their lives on the line for us every day. With their support, I will continue to ensure that public safety comes first and that our police have the resources they need to keep our communities safe.”
Throughout his time in office, Governor Quinn has been a champion for public safety, including fighting for and signing historic gun safety legislation that requires the reporting of all lost and stolen guns for the first time in Illinois history. To ensure the safety of our communities and law enforcement, Governor Quinn proposed a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines and is leading the fight for stronger gun-safety legislation.
Governor Quinn fought for laws to support and protect police officers across Illinois including honoring our fallen heroes and ensuring adequate staffing levels, as well as ensuring that law enforcement officers are supplied with the proper equipment to keep them protected. In addition, the Governor has fought to protect critical services crucial to police officers across the state from radical budget cuts sought by Republicans.
Rauner had tried to court the police by saying they’d be exempt from any of his privatized pension reform plans, but it obviously didn’t work.
Discuss.
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* Steve Schnorf has been fretting for some time in comments and in private conversations about how he’ll vote in November, and he’s now written one heck of an analysis of Bruce Rauner’s strengths and weaknesses from a moderate Republican “insider” perspective. The best part is he has addressed his piece to y’all in the hopes of striking up a conversation, so enjoy and participate…
Some of you have seen me post two or three times about wanting to vote for Bruce Rauner, but not being sure why I should, other than that I never vote for Democrats for Governor and President. So I decided to try to do what we were all taught to do at a young age; make a list of pros and cons. I’ve been working on it and here’s what I have so far.
I’m significantly handicapped by the fact that I don’t know him, have never met him or talked on the phone with him, never been in a meeting with him. This will be the first time in a very long time for me that I have to make a decision on voting for Governor about a person I don’t know. Knowing a person fairly well lets you make some reasonable assumptions about such things as overall character, one of the things that has helped me vote for candidates I didn’t always agree with on significant issues.
If you bother to take a look at what I’ve come up with, feel free to point out any errors of fact on my part, add things I’ve neglected to include, and argue my opinions as to what are positives and what are negatives.
* Rauner is open to applying the sales tax to services. Very Positive. The key to keeping tax rates low is a broad tax base. And, we’ve all seen the numbers on the big change in sales in our economy, from almost all “things” to now increasingly, “services” rather than “things.” Also, adding services to the base will relatively reduce the regressivity of our sales tax.
* Rauner’s extensive business experience almost assuredly makes him proficient at negotiating and, when necessary, compromising to reach agreements. Very Positive. That ability should serve him well with the leaders of the General Assembly, interest groups, etc.
* Rauner is endorsed by Jim Edgar. Very Positive. I know there’s a lot of Edgar envy and angst on this site, but if you think about it, he doesn’t waste or tarnish his name with excessive endorsements. If he thinks this person will be a good Governor, that’s important.
* Rauner is not what I call a “culture warrior,” someone who puts pursuing ideological social agendas above governing. Very Positive. To me, at least
.
* Rauner’s comments on funding priorities - K-12, higher ed, more correction officers, early childhood programs, DNR - show good insight into state funding deficiencies. Positive.
————————
* Rauner will “shake up Springfield.” Zero. I have no idea what this means. I doubt that he does.
* Rauner’s claim to have detailed position papers on a wide variety of issues that he doesn’t really have. Negative. Got himself trapped into this early, can’t get out of it, and doesn’t seem to care. The “big lie” approach to campaigning is very off-putting to a lot of people and to the media.
* Rauner believes that the state personal income tax rate should be reduced to 3% over four years. Very Negative. The State will not be able to fund basic services even at the inadequate level we currently fund them. If he knows that he is being disingenuous. If he doesn’t understand it that’s truly astonishing.
* Rauner’s growing credibility gap on increasing funding for various programs and his position on reducing state revenues by cutting taxes. Negative. The growing disconnect between these two positions seems to not concern him at all.
* Rauner’s discomfort publicly with whom and what he is. Negative. He’s wealthy and privileged. Don’t try to deny it, explain to us why it shouldn’t matter.
* Rauner’s stated intent to do battle with public employee unions, their leaders, and to promote right-to-work laws. Negative. This is the one thing about him that I understand the least, both practically and strategically. Practically, he will break his promise because he won’t prevail. Strategically, he had the unions at least neutral in this election because of their huge difficulties with Quinn. He would have won the primary by a larger margin had he just kept quiet because the unions wouldn’t have jumped in with money and GOTV for Dillard. Conclusion: if there’s no making sense of it politically or strategically, he must actually believe it. And that’s a real problem, because pursuing it will polarize and will suck up energy and time that needs to be devoted to governing.
He wouldn’t tell me how he plans to vote.
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* The whole idea behind the GOP effort to investigate Gov. Pat Quinn’s 2010 anti-violence program was because it somehow helped Quinn win the 2010 campaign, even though no money was handed out until after the campaign was over.
So, while this could be an important development, keep in mind that the contract was handed out sometime during Fiscal Year 2013…
A church closely connected to former top gubernatorial aide Billy Ocasio was awarded a contract for up to $100,000 from Gov. Pat Quinn’s embattled Neighborhood Recovery Initiative — even though Mr. Ocasio had helped supervise NRI grant-making as Mr. Quinn’s senior adviser.
New Life Covenant Church, where Mr. Ocasio’s wife, Veronica Ocasio, works as chief of staff, received the contract and ultimately was paid just under $43,000 for developing a youth employment program, according to records compiled by the Illinois Auditor General’s office and information obtained from state records by Crain’s. […]
“I don’t think it was just a coincidence,” says state Rep. Ron Sandack, R-Downers Grove, who serves on the commission and may be able to question Mr. Ocasio, who has been subpoenaed to appear at Wednesday’s session. “What’s available now doesn’t tell enough to reach a firm conclusion, but it would be incredibly naïve to conclude that (Mr. Ocasio’s) influence had no impact on who got the money.” […]
Mr. Ocasio left the governor’s office in May of 2011, assuming a new post at the Illinois Housing Development Authority. While still in the office, he had strongly lobbied in emails for NRI funds for Hispanic groups and arranged a meeting with Mr. Quinn to which New Life had been invited. For instance, in a Sept. 23 [2010] email, to Barbara Shaw, then ICJIA head. Referring to the Neighborhood Recovery program, he wrote, “Barbara, can you please get us a list of the lead agencies for NRP…I want to make sure that the Latino communities are taken care of [and provide meaningful suggestions based on your outline].” […]
In 2009, when Mr. Ocasio resigned as a Chicago alderman to go to work for Mr. Quinn, he pushed for New Life’s pastor, Rev. Wilfredo DeJesus, to be appointed to succeed him and, later, put forward his wife as his replacement. Then-Mayor Richard M. Daley instead chose someone else. In 2011, when Mr. De Jesus briefly ran for mayor, Veronica Ocasio was chairman of his campaign committee.
Expect this to come up during the hearing this week. But, again, we’re talking about a grant that took place two years (at least) after the election. Ocasio showed up to testify during a summer LAC hearing, but was never called. We’ll see what happens this time around.
* Meanwhile, from the Tribune’s front page story today…
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn spent nearly $5 million on special job training grants as part of a sweeping anti-violence program he quickly launched during his 2010 campaign, but about a third of the community groups that received money had to give some of it back.
A Humboldt Park group returned nearly $115,000 earmarked for computer training, a Near West Side group owes nearly $50,000 designated for teaching ex-offenders culinary and maintenance skills, and another group refunded more than $20,000 set aside to prepare Chicago’s disabled population for food service and hospitality jobs.
In all, eight of 25 community groups getting Quinn’s Training for Tomorrow grants fell short of the program’s goals and have returned money or plan to reimburse the state about $220,000. Most of the repayments came in after the Tribune inquired about the grants in early August.
You have to read down to the 12th paragraph to learn that the grant recipients weren’t named until Thanksgiving, which was a few weeks after the election. A few grafs later it’s explained that grant money wasn’t distributed until well into 2011. Also, many of the problems were discovered by audits done by UIUC. And the program overall performed up to expectations…
Some groups had better success than others, and the program ended up with 1,650 people enrolled, more than the 1,462 the state anticipated. The number of people who finished the program, got work and met the benchmark of holding a job for at least 90 days was 798 — only one less than projected, according to state officials.
…Adding… With a hat tip to Wordslinger, Kass’ latest…
Quinn’s administration is under federal investigation for spending $55 million of public money on a gang violence reduction program before his last election.
They must’ve laid off more editors over there.
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* Gov. Quinn has been campaigning with Martin Sheen for a couple of days. Sun-Times…
The dazzle of celebrity prompted grins — and a few eye rolls — from grim-faced Loop commuters Monday morning, as a campaigning Gov. Pat Quinn showed up with his actor pal Martin Sheen.
Quinn and Sheen shook hands and posed for photographs with commuters streaming out of Millennium Station downtown.
Asked whether a Hollywood actor would help or hurt Quinn, who is in a close race with Republican hopeful Bruce Rauner, Sheen said: “You can’t confuse celebrity with credibility. But it’s not like I showed up yesterday. I’ve been involved with social justice and with the Democrats most of my adult life.”
* But that’s not all he’s been involved with. The Illinois Republican Party has twice tried to interest the media in a rather bizarre Sheen story without any luck. Here’s today’s version…
Pat Quinn continues campaigning alongside actor Martin Sheen today, but he has yet to answer for Sheen’s radical views on a range of issues, including whether the September 11th attacks were actually a U.S. government conspiracy.
That’s right, our governor is proudly campaigning with a 9/11 “truther” who questions whether our government – not Al Qaeda – murdered 3,000 Americans.
Sounds too crazy to be true, right? Check out the YouTube evidence:
On October 27, 2007, Martin Sheen suggested the U.S. government had a hand in pre-rigging Building 7 to come down on 9/11 (Watch the Video): “I did not want to believe that my government could possibly be involved in such a thing…then however there’s been so many revelations that now I have my doubts. And chief among them is building seven. How did they rig that building so that it came down on the evening of the day?…How convenient. When did they rig that building? That’s the most curious question and I have not received an answer.”
Later, Sheen supported his son Charlie’s 9/11 truther statements (Watch the Video): “…I think all of us should be inquisitive about that. We should know what really happened. I don’t know, but there are some very troubling, unanswered questions and I think that’s all [my son] Charlie’s trying to explore. So I support that.”
Governor Quinn must address these offensive radical views today. Does Pat Quinn agree with Martin Sheen that there are unanswered questions about the 9/11 attacks? Will he denounce Martin Sheen’s radical and offensive views? If not, why is he continuing to campaign alongside someone who holds them?
* So, I asked the Quinn campaign for comment. The response…
Rather than attacking those who advocate for the working poor, billionaire Bruce Rauner should explain his own backward and offensive view that he expressed just this year of wanting to eliminate the minimum wage.
I’m pretty sure that if Bruce Rauner campaigned with a “birther,” the Quinnsters would try to make something out of that, so this appears to be a fair enough hit that probably deserves more attention.
…Adding… From a commenter…
Quinnsters-as long you don’t shake hands with a guy in a jacket with a Confederate flag it’s OK, right? Maybe that guy was an advocate for the working poor too since that makes it better. Fair hit on Quinn by Rauner.
Yep. I’d somehow forgotten about that one. Click here if you did as well.
…Adding More… The IL GOP responds to the Quinn campaign’s non-response…
Rather than rejecting Sheen’s 9/11 views, Quinn’s campaign refused to comment and instead claimed the ILGOP’s questioning of the matter was “attacking those who advocate for the working poor.” Gov. Quinn is responsible for the people he chooses to campaign with, whether he likes it or not.
The ILGOP is stunned and outraged by Pat Quinn’s refusal to condemn Sheen’s 9/11 conspiracy theories. The people of Illinois deserve better than this.
…Adding Even More… From the RGA…
Who does Illinois Dem Gov. Pat Quinn think makes a great campaign partner? A 9/11 truther who has suggested multiple times that the U.S. government may have secretly had a hand in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. If that wasn’t bad enough, news comes today that the Quinn campaign refuses to comment about his campaign surrogate’s 9/11 truther background and if Governor Quinn agrees with his statements. These moves by the Quinn campaign are outrageous, offensive and another major example of Quinn’s out-of-touch behavior.
…And More… Via the IL GOP…
Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon) today issued the following statement in response to Gov. Pat Quinn’s refusal to condemn 9/11 conspiracy theories:
“I joined the Air National Guard because of September 11th. Many have sacrificed their lives in defense of freedom since that horrible day. I am deeply concerned by Gov. Quinn’s refusal to condemn those who would suggest the United States Government perpetrated these attacks that murdered more than 3,000 Americans. He owes us an explanation - now.”
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Today’s quotable
Monday, Oct 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kurt Erickson…
Republican candidate for governor Bruce Rauner said some words to remember last week during a stop in Bloomington.
Trying to portray himself as a man who will be a hands-on governor, the political newcomer said this: “Every day that the General Assembly is in session, I want to be with the General Assembly. I want to be with the General Assembly on the floor. I want to be in the committee meetings. I want to be in the hearings.”
If he’s elected, the first time Rauner is in Chicago or somewhere else when the Legislature is in session, you know those words will be used against him.
He also had these words of warning to members of the House and Senate: “I’m going to be twisting arms. I’m going to be selling. I might have to break a couple of arms.”
Now that would be hands on.
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* From the Quinn campaign…
On the eve of her visit Tuesday afternoon to the UIC Pavilion, First Lady Michelle Obama is featured in a new TV ad praising Governor Pat Quinn’s “courage to do what’s right” in fighting to raise the minimum wage, create Illinois jobs and protect critical services for veterans instead of giving tax breaks to the wealthy.
“So for this election, Barack and I are casting our votes for our friend Pat Quinn,” the First Lady concludes in the 30-second ad that began airing today.
The First Lady has long supported Governor Quinn and worked closely with him on initiatives to help Illinois veterans find work.
* The ad…
* Script…
“This is Michelle Obama and I know Pat Quinn.
“I’ve seen that Pat has the courage to do what’s right.
“Now, Pat’s fighting to raise the minimum wage.
“He’s working to create jobs here at home - instead of shipping jobs overseas.
“And he’ll never cut funding for military families or veterans to give a tax break to the wealthy.
“So for this election, Barack and I are casting our votes for our friend Pat Quinn.”
It’s OK, but nothing spectacular.
* The Quinnsters have another new TV ad running and Ormsby is not impressed at all…
A new TV ad released today by Governor Pat Quinn’s campaign hits GOP challenger Bruce Rauner‘s “reckless plan to slash school funding.” […]
The ad is ho, hum. The punch against Rauner’s education plan is feeble.
And the footage is partially a rehash of the same footage also being used in the new TV ad by Michelle Obama endorsing Quinn.
The producers of both ads invested little imagination in either.
Quinn’s education ad gets a “C”.
* The ad…
* Script…
Two candidates. Two visions for Illinois. Billionaire Bruce Rauner’s plan would cut his own taxes by more than a million dollars a year while slashing funds for Illinois schools – and laying off 1 out of every 6 teachers.
“Pat Quinn. He’ll protect schools and teachers from devastating budget cuts. And he’ll never cut school funding to give a tax break to the wealthy. That’s the choice.
Pat Quinn. Governor.
* Meanwhile, the Rauner campaign has a new online ad…
This Wednesday and Thursday the Illinois Legislative Audit Commission will take live testimony from former top aides to Gov. Pat Quinn regarding their roles in an ongoing federal corruption investigation by two separate U.S. Attorneys. The hearings will serve a number of important roles. Most importantly, taxpayers may finally learn how millions of tax dollars found their way into the hands of the politically-connected while bypassing some of Chicago’s most violent neighborhoods. Additionally, citizens will be reminded that the public image Pat Quinn has cultivated over the last three decades does not mirror his actions while in office. In addition to using the NRI program as a $55 million political slush fund, we learned just this summer that after taking over for Rod Blagojevich, Quinn actually doubled the number of illegal political hires at IDOT.
Simply put, voters will be reminded that Pat Quinn isn’t the reformer he claims to be. In fact, he’s exactly the opposite - a career politician who will do anything to retain power:
* The online promo…
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* You know the drill. Here’s the press release…
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching a new television ad in Illinois’ 17th Congressional District, highlighting how former Congressman Bobby Schilling voted to protect tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. The ad comes just over two years after Bobby Schilling turned his back on the 170 Sensata workers who had their jobs outsourced. The ad starts running today.
* The TV ad…
* The script…
[Narrator] Thousands of Illinois jobs…gone.
(News Audio) “the plant is shutting down”
(News Audio) “170 jobs to China”
[Narrator] While in Congress, Bobby Schilling voted to protect tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas and let them keep their government contracts.
(News Audio) “losing these jobs would devastate this community”
[Narrator] The policies Schilling supports devastated Illinois. We can’t afford any more politicians like Bobby Schilling.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.
* Meanwhile, Roll Call blogged about some potential problems for the Schilling campaign because it appeared to violate some technical advertising requirements…
On Sept. 16, former Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., aired a 30-second ad titled, “How Could You?” that accused Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos of cutting benefits for military veterans. Democrats promptly sent a letter to television stations in Illinois’ 17th District, taking issue with the disclaimer on Schilling’s ad and arguing the Republican forfeited his right to the lowest unit charge for the remainder of the race. […]
“The bottom line is that, at the time of the complaint, the ad was going off the air anyway,” said Rex Elsass, whose firm, The Strategy Group for Media, produced the spot. In the middle of last week, the Schilling campaign “switched traffic,” the campaign term for changing ads, and the disclaimer on the new ad, “Spin,” was slightly different. The written disclaimer at the end is accompanied by a “postage stamp” photo of the candidate.
So what’s the big deal? This particular disclaimer issue has the potential for serious financial consequences for Schilling because it occurred within the 60-day window before the election.
“[B]obby Schilling has forfeited his entitlement to the lowest unit charge for the duration of the campaign,” attorney Mike Halpin wrote in a Sept. 17 letter to station managers on behalf of the Bustos campaign. “From now through the day of the general election, your station must charge Bobby Schilling and Bobby Schilling for Congress the same rate for broadcast time that it charges non-political advertisers for comparable use.”
The local paper put the story on its front page today…
* If Schilling is forced to pay the higher amount, that could hurt him even more because he’s being outraised by Bustos…
Today, Cheri Bustos for Congress announced it raised $683,000 in the third fundraising quarter of 2014, a new record for Illinois’ 17th Congressional District. The campaign has raised just under $2.7 million during this election cycle, another record for Illinois’ 17th Congressional District, and enters the final month of the campaign with $987,000 cash-on-hand.
“Our campaign is humbled to have the strong support of so many across our region who know that Cheri Bustos is the candidate with the right priorities for Illinois,” said Bustos’ Campaign Manager Jeremy Jansen. “Cheri is running to continue her fight to bring middle class values and common sense back to Washington. That means putting job-creation and our economy first, reducing the deficit in a balanced way, while protecting Medicare and Social Security, and standing up for America’s veterans.”
This record-breaking quarter follows Cheri out-raising ex-Congressman Bobby Schilling every fundraising quarter of this election cycle.
…Adding… From the Schilling campaign…
“Congresswoman Bustos is a trade denier, and that’s a problem in a trade-dependent district like Illinois 17. Her thinking is completely backwards, it’s anti-worker, and it shows that Congresswoman Bustos doesn’t fully understand how the 21st century American economy works.
“It’s time for some evidence from Congresswoman Bustos to back up these silly claims based on flawed logic and misinformation. Trade creates jobs. It benefits the American worker. It’s absolutely vital to our district’s economy.
“If Congresswoman Bustos had it her way, there would be no trade with foreign nations. She would tell our manufacturers to close up and go home. Our farmers would be done—it would end American agriculture as we know it. We would stop putting our crops, our products, and our innovative ideas on the global market.
“Millions of jobs exist in this country solely because of trade. If Congresswoman Bustos had it her way, we would lose all of them. Our economy would come to a screeching halt, and the middle class would be caught in the crossfire.
“Congresswoman Bustos has no right to talk about shipping jobs overseas. Her policies are directly responsible for us losing American jobs to China. She supports the bring-back tax, which is preventing more than $2 trillion sitting overseas from being re-shored back to the United States. She supports keeping the highest corporate tax rate in the world. She supports further penalizing small businesses and preventing them from expanding into global markets.
“And what has Congresswoman Bustos done for our economy in this district? We’re losing Robertshaw in Hanover. We’re losing All Feed in Woodhull. We’re losing MetLife in Freeport. Where was Congresswoman Bustos?
“Maybe while she was spending millions on air talking about imaginary ‘tax breaks for corporations that ship jobs overseas,’ she should have been doing her job and fighting to protect our jobs. Now, for far too many workers in Hanover, Woodhull, and Freeport, it’s too late.”
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Daily Herald endorses Rauner
Monday, Oct 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the DH…
Is Rauner the perfect candidate? Who could be? To be sure, we are more than a little troubled by the vagueness of his economic proposals, the outright naiveté if not political opportunism of his call for a property tax freeze, the sometimes simplistic framework in which he contains Illinois’ complex problems.
But we are clear on his ultimate objective for the state — an objective, frankly, that we believe Gov. Quinn and most Illinoisans share. The question is which of the two men can change the course of Illinois history, and that dramatically.
Whatever small steps he has taken, Gov. Pat Quinn has had six years in which to put the state back on course, but ultimately has shown he is not the leader we need.
Bruce Rauner is. He gets our endorsement to be the next governor of Illinois
* The Daily Herald also endorsed Tom Cross…
We believe Republican Tom Cross, 56, of Oswego is the stronger candidate, and he earns our endorsement. Cross is the former minority leader in the House and has the breadth of experience we think is important for statewide office. As we said when endorsing him in the GOP primary, we like his aggressive attitude toward making the office more vocal and involved when it comes to the state’s troubled finances. Cross has vowed to hold the legislature and governor accountable in court if they do not pass a balanced budget as the state Constitution mandates. Having another statewide officer demanding accountability is a welcome approach to an office that also manages the state’s investments and financial programs like the Bright Start college savings program.
State Sen. Mike Frerichs, a 41-year-old Democrat from Champaign, touts his experience as a county auditor and says the treasurer should not take on duties that are not assigned to the office. Both candidates say they will provide more transparency and greater efficiencies if elected. However, Cross in our view is more committed to merging the comptroller and treasurer’s offices, an idea we strongly support.
* And Topinka…
In her first term, the 70-year-old Riverside Republican created an online ledger to allow for more transparency of state finances while also trimming the budget and head count in the office, which oversees check writing for the state. She understands state finances and the workings of the state legislature, which gives her some leverage as she tries to push legislation and a constitutional amendment to combine the comptroller’s and treasurer’s offices. “I can be a horrendous nag,” she said. We like her passion about her role and on the issue of combining the offices. She has earned a second term.
Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, a Carbondale Democrat, says she will work to combine resources of the two offices and find more efficiencies. She also said she wants to provide even more transparency for taxpayers, especially on the timing of when state bills are paid. Simon, 53, is an earnest candidate, but she fails to make a strong case as to why the better-known and much more experienced Topinka should be removed.
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
OK, so what we’re gonna do today is discuss some congressional races that you may or may not care about in order to talk about the governor’s race, which you probably do care about since you’re reading this column.
First up, let’s look at freshman Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider, who is leading former one-term Republican Congressman Bob Dold by two points, 46-44 with 9 percent undecided. according to a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll taken Sept. 30th.
Millions have already been spent in that north suburban district, and Schneider barely beat Dold last time in a big Democratic year, so it’s little surprise that this race is so tight. The poll of 919 likely voters has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent and 23 percent were mobile phone contacts.
Gov. Pat Quinn is getting slaughtered in the district by Bruce Rauner 51-39, with another 5 percent going for Libertarian Chad Grimm and 5 percent undecided. That can’t be helping Schneider. There are a ton of anti-gun, pro-choice women in that district, and yet Quinn is losing to Rauner among females 45-42.
Moving right along, every poll was way off in the 11th Congressional District two years ago. So, keep that in mind when I tell you that the latest Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll has Democratic Congressman Bill Foster ahead of Republican state Rep. Darlene Senger by only three points, 47-44, with another 10 percent undecided. The poll of 918 likely voters was taken Sept. 30th and had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent, with 24 percent mobile phone contacts.
The race in the sprawling southwest suburban district has so far attracted little outside attention. A recent Senger poll showed her trailing by 5 and the campaign decided to keep it secret in order to sneak up on Foster. Oops.
Rauner is leading Quinn in the district 48-39, with another 6 percent going to the Libertarian..
Another Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll showed state Rep. Mike Bost leading Democratic freshman Congressman Bill Enyart by five points, 45-40, with six points going to Green Party candidate Paula Bradshaw in this southern Illinois district.
Despite Democratic efforts to paint Bost as a scary, screaming extremist, the Republican is leading Enyart 41-40 among women. The poll of 909 likely voters was taken Oct. 1st and has a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent. 22 percent of the contacts were cell phone users.
Rauner is way ahead of Gov. Quinn in that district 47-35, with 9 percent going to the Libertarian candidate.
The biggest bright spot for the congressional Democrats came from a Sept. 29th Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll which showed Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos leading former GOP Congressman Bobby Schilling by nine points, 50-41. The poll of 953 likely voters had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
National Republicans have been saying for months that Gov. Quinn would bring down Democratic incumbents, and Quinn is trailing Rauner in this northwestern Illinois district 42-38, with 9 percent going to the Libertarian. But, obviously, Quinn isn’t yet hurting Bustos.
Like elsewhere, Quinn has a big problem with women in the district. Bustos is winning among women 51-39, but they split 39-39 in the governor’s race.
And, finally, Republican Congressman Rodney Davis appears to be coasting to reelection, according to a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll. Davis has a very big 51-38 lead over Democrat Ann Callis, with 11 percent undecided. The poll of 932 likely voters was taken Oct. 1st and has a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.
Even so, Callis is still getting more support than Gov. Quinn in a district that stretches from Champaign to the Metro East. Rauner leads 43-35, with 11 percent for the Libertarian.
OK, now to the point I’m trying to make.
If you look back at 2012, it was very difficult to find a hotly contested congressional race where President Obama was trailing in the polls. He won all the districts listed above.
Again, these are swing districts. Neither party has a huge advantage over the other party. You’d expect Quinn to at least be competitive, but he’s getting blown out everywhere except the Bustos district, where he’s still trailing.
Obama won Illinois by 17 points, so Quinn doesn’t have to be all that close in those congressional districts to prevail. But his appalling numbers are a clear sign of his unpopularity everywhere but Chicago. Despite recent polls showing Rauner and Quinn essentially tied, I think the governor is still a long way away from closing this deal.
Subscribers have more background info on all the races plus crosstabs for each poll.
Discuss.
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Keep calm and carry on
Monday, Oct 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The DCCC has been posting some tracker videos of Rep. Mike Bost on YouTube. Obviously, any thuggish behavior caught on tape by the infamously argumentative Bost or his campaign staff or supporters would be video gold.
To his and his campaign’s credit, Bost appears to understand the consequences of any slight misbehavior. If you watch the two raw videos from Belleville’s annual chili cook-off, you’ll see Bost and his crew doing their best to just act natural and not worry about what the tracker is doing.
Smart move.
* Indeed, in this brief excerpt from Part 2, you can hear a new out-of-state Bost worker named Chris pleasantly introducing himself to a fairly new out-of-state DCCC tracker named Megan. The two chit-chat about where they’re from, cheese steaks, etc...
Also, in all the videos I watched over the weekend, the Dem tracker doesn’t go out of her way to provoke Bost, which is better behavior than others we’ve seen.
Considering the stakes here, it’s encouraging that both sides are maintaining a level of professionalism and courtesy. At least, for now.
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When a “cut” is actually an increase
Monday, Oct 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Here’s my latest Crain’s Chicago Business column, which begins…
The most easily disprovable falsehood of this year’s gubernatorial campaign also is one that the mainstream media has not bothered to correct, possibly because the purveyors of the tall tale push back so hard when somebody tries to write the facts.
The Associated Press in April uncritically reported a statement by Republican nominee Bruce Rauner, who “criticized Quinn for cutting funding to schools by some $600 million—cuts that led to teacher layoffs and larger class sizes.”
Mr. Rauner then footnoted that AP story in a July television ad: “Quinn cut $500 million, causing teacher layoffs and crowded classrooms”
Wait. Now it’s just $500 million?
And ends…
Instead of a big cut, state education funding actually has risen roughly $440 million, to about $6.81 billion in 2015, from nearly $6.37 billion in 2010. Nothing to cheer about but not horrible when you consider that teacher pension spending has increased by about $2 billion during the same period.
“You’re just wrong on this,” I emailed Mr. Rauner’s spokesman.
“It is true and we will keep correcting you,” he wrote back.
At that point, I rose from my computer and banged my head against the wall.
Go read the whole thing before commenting, please. You’ll see how I came to my conclusion and some of the silliness I had to endure before I wound up banging my head against the wall… and banging out that column.
* And speaking of suffering through endless attempts at “working the ref,” here’s Kurt Erickson…
The campaign for governor has been the most frantic I’ve ever covered. Both sides are loaded with staffers who are super-committed to getting their man elected.
Press aides from both sides are constantly badgering reporters about potential negative stories that later could be — and oftentimes are — transformed into hard-hitting television ads.
As an example of the hyper-attention being paid to the race by the campaign staffers, I recently wrote a story about a plan to auction off half of the state’s fleet of airplanes.
Once the story was up on the newspaper’s website, I tweeted the link to my Twitter account, @Illinois_Stage.
Within a mere three minutes of the tweet I received a text message from a Rauner operative complaining that I didn’t mention in the story that Rauner had proposed the sale before Quinn did.
* That’s pretty standard stuff, but as Kurt says it’s relentless this year.
Both campaigns have sophisticated war rooms where operatives monitor everything - news stories, tweets, even sometimes comments - in real time. Responses are lightening fast. Sometimes they’re pleasant, sometimes they’re overtly hostile, sometimes they’re drenched with sarcasm.
Because I have a different sort of publication, I can - and do - quickly accommodate any legit criticisms with an update. I have zero problem with that. If something is incomplete, inaccurate or whatever, it deserves an update. I don’t mind doing that at all.
Sometimes, the campaigns’ responses aren’t so legit, but I often post those as well, which are then usually followed up by stinging rebukes from myself, and/or commenters and/or from the other side, ad infinitum.
The public and private back and forth has all been unendingly fascinating to me, and quite entertaining.
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Good morning, everybody!
Monday, Oct 6, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a 2011 tribute to the late, beyond great “Stu” Stewart featuring long-retired bassist Bill Wyman, here’s the Rolling Stones covering Bob Dylan’s “Watching the River Flow”…
People disagreeing on almost everything,
Makes you stop and wonder why.
Why only yesterday I saw someone on the street
Who couldn’t just help but cry.
Oh, this ol’ river keeps on rollin’, though,
No matter what gets in the way and which way the wind blows,
And as long as it does I’ll just sit here
And watch the river flow.
That’s pretty much how I describe my chosen career.
* Also, now that they’re all 70 or so, I really wish the Stones would play more outstanding tunes like this one. Get back to the roots, guys. Be necessary again to our understanding of what music is, what it has been, what it will always be. And, while you’re at it, go out with some counter-culture dignity.
And I say this as someone who’s been a Rolling Stones fanatic since before I could talk. I so badly want them to be relevant again because I am convinced down to my marrow that they still have it in them if only they’d rise above their jaded, faded, tiresomely self-referential “Star Star” schtick. Just listen to today’s song for proof.
In other words, get the heck off Les Champs-Elysees and get back to 2120 South Michigan Avenue.
/rant
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